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QUALIFYING OFFERS
The Tigers' SB Nation site has a celery-crisp little article that runs down the free agents and qualifying offers this winter. For those who need a refresher on the process -- that would be only me -- it goes like this:
1. Some players, a team can offer them $17.2MM for one year. If they accept, Deal! Which would be the M's dream on, say, Zack Cozart.
1a. This never happens. Players never want one year for $17M. What do you think this is, white slavery? (Adam Jones says there are too few blacks in baseball to wield any power.)
2. If the player does not accept, then he goes to the free agent market with a ball-and-chain on his ankle...
3. ... That being if the Mariners signed (say) Dexter Fowler, the M's would immediately have to send the Cubs their #18 overall pick. For this year.
3a. That doesn't apply to the top 10 overall picks. The M's would be coughing up the #8 most desirable pick in the draft.
4. Some weak players, like (this coming winter) Kendrys Morales, Bartolo Colon, 1B Mike Napoli, and RF Condor will be tagged with the QO, get no acceptable offers, and sign make-good deals like 1 year, $7M (which is less than 1 year, $17M.
4a. 1B Mitch Moreland didn't get a QO. Interesting.
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NEWSWIRE
Ian Desmond got his QO. SSI is setting the odds at 9:1 against his accepting it. Wasn't this the guy who turned down a nine-figure deal earlier in his career? And then wound up with a $22M contract or something?
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The Tigers' site lists 36 big name players who can't be given a QO because they changed teams midseason. Obviously it would be tramautic for a ballplayer to get on a plane in July and then get $17M in December. There is no such thing as too much sensitivity. Dennis Miller had a line that either side would probably find amusing ... these days in America if you do not share Big Bro's sense of loooove, carrrring, and sensitivityyyy ... they will destroy you, buddy. Life, politics, baseball, and gut-churning $17,200,000 offers to play baseball for a year. I'm old enough to remember Johnny Bench's assault on the $100,000/year barrier.
Mark Melancon, Rich Hill, Steve Pearce, Josh Reddick, Brad Ziegler.
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WELL, THANKS A LOT FOR TIPPING US OFF
Aoki out, Seth Smith in. Wow. Dr. D had gingerly predicted the opposite, especially in view of Aoki's second half (wow!) and the 34-year-old Smith's second half dropoff -- .204/.306/.361, which is about what Ketel Marte hit give or take a few doubles.
It's not that $7M is a lot. I think I got that in the trunk of my car. It's that you have committed to Smith, at 34, for the bigger half of a platoon.
:: ticks off on his fingers :: The M's wanted to get younger. ... they wanted to be less platoon-oriented. ... they wanted to be more athletic. ... they laughed about Smith's defense based on their internal metrics. ... it's not hard to find corner outfielders.
....
In that late-season Astros broadcast, Dipoto had gushed over Nori Aoki, saying that Aoki had (in the 2H) been everything Dipoto imagined and more, and had been right in the thick of their best stretches in 2016. On Smith, conversely, Dipoto said mildly "whether he gets a hit or not, you know he's going to give you a pro at-bat." I, for one, will definitely not betting into a straight draw with Dipoto staring back over the table.
Dipoto and Servais obviously assign Seth Smith a film-Arnie level of invulnerability at the plate. Well, here's to that. We wanted Smith, and now we got 'im. I flat enjoy having Seth Smith on my baseball team. Does he have a DH's glove?
BABVA,
Jeff
Villar has been moved off SS in Milwaukee, but still isn't a terrible fielder, Arcia just is better. But the Brewers need corner IF help. I wonder if DJ + Romero would be something of interest to them. They have some really good OF prospects, and are looking for 1st line pitching for Ryan Braun, but putting a SP prospect in with DJ and Stef might get a SS/UT that's a dandy leadoff hitter.
The SS market is weird though, both for prospects and big leaguers. I dunno that Villar's GM will be willing to part with him since he traded with his old employer the Astros just to get him. It'd be interesting though.
And he's planning for it too.
Seth Smith, 1st half of the season: 830 OPS career.
2nd half? .738. It's not a BABIP thing, or a small sample thing with over 3000 ABs in the sample. Smith gets tired, or hates travel as the season goes on, or for whatever unknown reason slips in his production as the calendar winds on.
But Jerry has an OF spot to fill for a few months until he's willing to call up Tank O'Neill, which as we all know he won't do til the last week of May at the earliest. Gotta keep that extra year of service time. So he's spending 7 million betting that Smith can hold down a corner OF spot with that .830 OPS for the first few months, and then once Tank is comfortable Smith can be traded - hopefully to someone who believes this is the year that Smith will avoid the swandive after the All-Star Break.
I expect to get a glove man to help out in the OF (or if you believe in Gamel then I guess that would be his role) but Smith is the placeholder for O'Neill. No need to go try to find somebody on a one-year make-good contract for that if you have a guy in house and the Ms did.
Works for me.
That's got to be one of the widest splits of any active player for 1H/2H. Good catch.
Assuming that you're thinking along with Dipoto and Operation Tankage ... $7M for three-four months of Smith? Y'think?
Good to see you!
And Villars must put up a 4.5 WAR year, including 19 HR's and 62 Steals. I would L-U-V to get him.......but Romero and Deej isn't doing it, I imagine. Marte and Miranda or Karns might.
Moe the Dogman grabs the cuff. I can't imagine a more fortuious trade than Marte plus one of those two arms for Villars. Here's your milkbone, Moe. Brewers seriously need arms. M's might have to toss in another A guy with promise, fine, do it.
And I'm in Bats, for bringing up Villar. I much prefer him to an aging Red.
There is more behind this hanging onto Smith and cutting Aoki. I like G's theory involving Tank ... but I'm guessing there is more to it, possibly involving a Smith trade.
Cleansing of Ianetta (with which I agree) and Storen (with which I ain't, just think they will bring him back for lesser money) opened roster open for 4 guys on 40 man before they signed Kiekhefer, so there are 3 open spots with the Rule 5 coming up.
And while we are off the subject, a weird mirage appeared in the rain.
I've dealt T. Walker and Vogelsbach for A. MC Clutch, so that search for a starter is filled by ....
...Stanton and Mather open the bank vault and jump payroll to around $155 ...
... by putting up the $20 mil posting fee (Nippon Ham Fighters will get the whole pig ... and, after winning the title in Japan they will post him) and offering big bucks to 22 y-o Japanese star of stars Shohei Otari. But his contract will be backloaded.
So we open the season with position players: Zunino; Lee(probable); Cano; Seager; Villar; Gamel/Smith/Heredia (?); Martin; MC Clutch.
For starters we have: Felix; Kuma; Otari; Paxton; and either Karns (or fill in the blank).
All that, plus relievers, O'Tamale, and Sucre for just under $160 mil.
So.
woof
zoom
All the reports that are coming out are speculation and wishful thinking at best.
Otani has said nothing to the effect of him wanting to cross right now.
Due to capped posting, it also creates a dangerous precedent for NPB teams to post so early and would be universally revilled by the other 11 teams in the league.