I'm a Seager fan. But I'm not sure I'm re-upping on him, for those dollars. It's more than just Deej, G. Include Franklin, Romero, Taylor, Tyler Smith, Tenbrink....
Those guys can all play 3B, to one degree or another. Indications are that a bunch of them have decent MLB bats. The good news is that we're in no hurry. Seager is cheap, for 3 years (including this one). We can keep him, no problem. Of course, keeping him through his cheap years means his trade value declines. at the point we do replace him.
This winter I advocated that Seager be shopped around, while his value was maxed out. He's a very nice player with a gritty attitude. But he isn't irreplaceable for us. Wright, Longoria, and Zimmerman had been 130-140 OPS guys by the time they were 24. Headley is the kind of template we hope for, as he jumped dramatically at age 28, but hasn't maintained that level of performance. Carpenter went 125, 143 in his 1st two year.
If Franklin rips in Tacoma, why wouldn't you move him to 3B?
I like Seager. But I think we can replace him, when the time comes.
One of the fun parts about promoting all your players from the farm is that eventually you have to figure out what they're worth, and whether to pay them. We still don't know who Ackley and Smoak are at the plate, so it's hard to come up with contract terms for them that would satisfy both parties. But do we think we know who Kyle Seager is?
After today, the upper parameters for any sort of Seager extension seem to be in place. The Indians signed Jason Kipnis this morning for 6 years and $52.5 million. Quick, tell me which of the below players is Kipnis and which is Seager:
Player A: 1500 PAs, .270/.350/.420/.770, .55 batting eye, 68 2B / 9 3B / 38 HR, .338 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Player B: 1550 PAS, .260/.325/.420/.745, .50 batting eye, 81 2B / 3 3B / 45 HR, .325 wOBA, 108 wRC+
Seager is Player B, with his second half swoon last year being the only real difference between him and Kipnis at the plate. If you think he's the hitter he was in the for year and a half of his career, and not the last 3 months of it, then Kipnis is about as close a comp as you're gonna get production-wise.
Both are lefty infielders. Kipnis plays second base while Seager plays third (league average OPS last year was .676 at 2B and .711 at 3B), so Seager should slot in for a little less. Of course, since he can play second base for someone else, his agent might not want him to take much of a monetary hit for playing 3B.
And then there's this chart...
XBH by a 3B, last two seasons combined:
Cabrera - 155 (88 HR)
Beltre - 133 (66 HR)
Alvarez - 116 (66 HR)
Zimmerman - 116 (51 HR)
Headley - 114 (44 HR)
Seager - 112 (42 HR)
Wright - 111 (39 HR)
Ramirez - 110 (39 HR)
Longoria - 105 (49 HR)
There are two definitively better base-knockers at 3rd base than Seager: the two-time defending MVP of the league and Future HOFer Cabrera, and "I play in Texas" future HOF nominee Beltre. 3 through 9 are pretty close, and Seager is dead-smack in the middle at #6. 5 of the guys around Seager are easily into the 8-Figures-A-Year club. He's gonna want to be joining them shortly - and we're likely gonna want to sign him before all this TV money hits and both arb figures and FA prices go up, changing WAR/$ figures significantly. If we're gonna sign extensions we want to start doing it NOW.
The contract for Kipnis bought out one pre-arb year, 3 arb years and 2 FA seasons. Seager - like Kipnishad been - is due for arbitration next year. Matt Carpenter signed a 6/52 contract for the Cards back in Spring Training, which paid him a million bucks for his last pre-arb year, then bought out all 3 arb years and two FA years just like Kipnis. Now, Matt had a 6 WAR year last season, but he'll be playing third base for the Cards for the foreseeable future, so he too will be used as a reference point. Especially if he has a down year this year and brings his numbers back toward Kyle's.
If Seager performs even a little better than last year, he should be looking at about a 5 year / 50 million extension after this year as a baseline, based on those contracts. DJ Peterson, if he's left at the position, should be about ready to throw his hat in the ring for the third base job sometime next year.
Is Seager one of those "players you can win a pennant with" that Doc likes to talk about, and if so, what's he worth to you? Do you pay Seager his $50ish million, or not?
~G
Comments
I love the guy...but if you can get a bopping outfielder...I think you gotta trade Seager...we have more infield prospects than outfield prospects by FAR
If Seager is a 3-4 WAR player (as he has been the last 2 years) then can you kick him to the curb while he's still cheap?
I agree, we have some players we could stick over there if we don't want to pay Seager now and plan to move him at some point. Romero is one. Peterson is still aimed at the position. Franklin could be shifted there if we want to keep him (as Seager was moved off of 2B to keep him on the big-league club). Heck, Kivlehan is still a 3B potential.
If we're not gonna trade Miller (spoiler alert: we're not) and Seager has more trade value than Franklin (he undoubtedly does) then it could make a lot of sense to trade Seager instead of giving him a half-a-hundred-mil.
But we'd better get a Kipnis-level return for him. 3-4 WAR infielders who hit a ton of XBHs are a nice commodity.
Maybe someone will give us the corner OF we need for him. David Frees netted Peter Bourjos, and Seager is better than Frees by a not-insignificant amount.
~G
Corey Hart is not gonna cut it long-term and can't play 150 games in the field, LoMo is barely an OF, and we're playing two converted infielders in the OF already (Ackley played 1B/2B and Romero was a 2B/3B) - 3 if you consider that Almonte started his minor league career as a 2B too.
It'd be nice to get a thumper who is also a born OF. If Seager can get us one, it'll be hard to argue even though we'll lose the WAR argument. Sometimes team need means you trade the 4 WAR 3B for the 2.5 WAR corner OF, because all your other corner OF are negative WAR players.
Either that, or you hope yet another IF/OF conversion in DJ or Kivlehan works out, or Austin Wilson suddenly puts it together and becomes Andre Dawson.
I wouldn't mind those being plans B and C on the list. Not forcing them to be plan A is okay with me. But you gotta get the right guy back for Seager first.
~G
As Spec has labeled it... the FLEET is coming... so now is not only when you figure out who can play, but also who wants to stay. Who wants to be with Felix, Cano and etc for the next 10 years.
Yes Seager is a good player, but does he want to stay. Is he willing to sign a team friendly contract? Can we get him for 10 years $90 million or there abouts? If that is a yes, then no way are you trading him. Seager is a good fit for Safeco, and we all love his work ethic and attitude.
However, if he is only willing to sign a 4 or 5 year contract for the Kipnis level to get him through him arbitration years... then trade him. He is a good player, but definitely one that can be found in the draft time and time again.
One thing that I think we can look for in the coming weeks to see which direction the Mariners are going is who becomes the main 3B in Tacoma. If it is Tenbrink, despite that many of us like Tenbrink, he is not replacing Seager this year. However, if it is Franklin, or for some reason Taylor... then something is in the works.
Finally, one question to those who want to trade Seager soon... who do you want to get back? Are you looking for a Kemp type player - established but high salary with some cash back to keep our budget in line... or a Joc Petersen type - young hot shot rookie and another piece to even out the trade ... or a Desmond Jennings type - a player with some established history, but possibly has room to grow in the future?
Well, after the first few games. the guys that played third base in Tacoma are Tenbrink and Ty Kelly, and in Jackson are Morla and Noriega.... so I doubt Seager is going anywhere soon.
Other than Deej is looking like Mike Schmidt (with the bat) down on the farm.
The time to trade high on Seager was this winter. so he probably isn't going anywhere. But as part of a package for the right OF, I would trade him today.
Maybe that "right OF" (25 homer+ homers from the RH side) is Romero or Blash, however. If so....then Seager is worth more to us as a keeper. But we've got guys who can get close to his production level, I think.
I certainly wouldn't lock up multiple years and mid-range 8 figures in him right now.