1
Erasmo 2 ip, 2 hits, 0 bb, 1 k, no runs.
Capps 1 ip, 2 hits, 0 bb, 3k, no runs. Gotta be ruff on hitters trying to face that in February.
...........
Next up ... states of the Sanchez, the Pike, and the Gohara ...
Four and Five is the New One and Two
Big Three waitin' they'ah turns
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SSI says that -- at this particular moment in time -- it values Erasmo Ramirez almost as much as it values James Paxton and Danny Hultzen. :: holds thumb and forefinger a quarter inch apart. ::
That's saying a whale of a lot. There is a very short distance between Danny Hultzen and Cole Hamels. When Dr. D says he'd take Erasmo Ramirez as well as he'd take Danny Hultzen ... he might as well be saying he'd take Erasmo Ramirez before* he'd take Jose Fernandez or Gerrit Cole or Tyler Skaggs. That is in fact what Dr. D IS saying.
*about the same time as
Here's the difference between impending ML star Erasmo and the typical AAA pitcher who has the best ERA in the PCL:
- Erasmo has thrown 60 innings in the bigs and made his game work
- His ML walk line is 1+, with excellent strikeouts; this particular 1+ BB template is deadly
- His fastball has TWO special ingredients: 94+ MPH and teacup command (based on perfect mechanics)
- The changeup is a putaway weapon
- His makeup is special
That's not one (1) star-making difference between Erasmo and Chris Seddon; it's five (5) star-making differences. Quite a while ago we made Erasmo an SSI Near Best Bet. It ain't because he's off to a good start.
You're a major league GM, this is the kind of kid you want to bet your career on.
..........
That's not to say that Erasmo was ever a BBA top-100 prospect. He kind of wasn't. He canal-vaulted that crevasse, and as a career 60-IP kid, he stands in a place very similar to the place that Danny Hultzen stands in. Still, it's not quite the same thing. Erasmo's career path has been weird, as Fister's was a few years ago.
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=== Number Five ===
Brandon Maurer has popped Dr. D's eyes as wide open as ... ahemmm ... a solo hiker's if he's run into a bear in the woods, and he wonders whether Maurer is threatening an Erasmo Ramirez path to meteor impact.
The differences between Brandon Maurer and, say, Mauricio Robles or Ryan Feierabend or Andrew Baldwin:
- Maurer has the Ultimate Pitcher's Template
- It looks for all the world like Maurer is going to be able to execute this template
In Bill James' HOF Pitcher Families he's got a Jim Bunning, Don Sutton template -- guys who can do EVERYTHING. Guys who are super smooth, super polished, good fastball, all the breaking pitches, and command into the bargain. Mike Mussina, David Cone.
A lot of guys look like this, sort of. Cha Seung Baek looked vaguely like this. Scouts waste spend lots of time in search for this template, not realizing maybe that it's like searching for a Jamie Moyer 86 MPH template. Everybody wants a 19-year-old righthander with command, a good fastball, and three-four pitches. It's a futile search.
It's a great template, but only a very few guys look like they can actually pull it off -- throw all their pitches with BITE and consistency and coherence.
Maurer just looks to me like he could be one of 'em. And that's saying a lot. Matty says that Baker says that Maurer has moved ahead of the Big Three. What the deuce are they going to DO with all these guys? Nick "200 Pounds" Franklin just went yard today. Dr. D is officially IN, baby.
If you guys want to say you value Brandon Maurer about as much as you'd value Jose Fernandez or Tyler Skaggs, that is perfectly fine by me. It says here that's rational. Maurer is in a place very few pitchers ever get to.
SSI readers can refer to a Big Five with Dr. D's blessing.
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Comments
2
Love his game, and his makeup. And you know what I think of Maurer, who won the Southern League pitcher of the year OVER both Hultzen and Walker. Like you said, Maurer LOOKS like the perfect image of a pitcher. When people talk about throwing Maurer overboard in a trade for a 4th outfielder or whatever I'm sure my face seizes up into some version of "Troll Angryface" because his worth continues to climb through the roof and out into the sky.
Now, Zduriencik's contention is that his minor league guys had their worth fall through the floor this offseason for some reason, and that's one reason he chose not to make a trade using them. I absolutely agree with this - If Maurer is gonna be a top-50 prospect next year and top-three internally once Hultzen/Paxton/Franklin (Zunino?) graduate our system, then don't go giving him away.
But it's always possible that we trade Paxton and keep Maurer, since only one of them has control concerns, and only one of them is currently a top-rated prospect, and neither of those are Maurer.
I do wonder where we're gonna put em all - but if we stock our rotation full of the ones we'll keep and they're successful, then it's not that big a deal. If you have Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine in your rotation, then you can feel free to trade some minor league arms without a lot of concern. That's one reason I want great years out of Erasmo and one of the Big Three - let's figure out OUR rotation so we know who the surplus happens to be.
And don't be surprised if somebody like Hultzen gets promoted this year, pitches very well... and gets traded in a blockbuster next year after increasing his value as Jack stated he wanted. We're one of maybe three or four franchises with enough young talent to swing the crazy price that Stanton would cost, and we've desperately been trying to make a move like that for several years.
Don't get too attached to anybody who breaks out this year - they may not be here long, especially if they happen to have positional backups (see: C, 2B/SS, starter and reliever).
~G
3
I would be happy to swap out a successful Montero for Stanton.
4
. . .Jack made the call on Erasmo last year, vaulting him over everybody onto the staff. I'm not too worried on his judgement of young pitchers (not counting Fister!).
5
Say this year's draft goes sideways like so many of the previous decade. Next year, our rotation is almost certainly going to be Felix, BIG 4. That would leave Blake Beavan, DJ Mitchell, the loser of the BIG 5 battle, and Hisashi Iwakuma on contract with nowhere to pitch, and that assumes Forrest Snow or someone doesn't figure it out. One could conceivably package together that upper minors talent/Big Leaguers on contract being pushed out by kids and package it for some low minors lottery tickets to cover yourself for 2 or 3 years down the road?
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Remember how good HE was? :)
E-Ram is Roy Oswalt minus 1000 innings to prove that's who he is. He's got all of Oswalt's pitches, his height, his command, his diamond-hard concentration, and his butter smooth mechanics.
SOOOOOOO.....
Our rotation is King CY Felix, Hiroki Kuroda's underrated twin, Roy blinkin' Oswalt, Jason Vargas's slightly cheaper twin brother, and a lotto draw from the hot-rods???
Guys...I am really getting optimistic about the season...someone hose me down before I disappoint myself again with lofty expectations!
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The end of the year may be difficult on the rotation. Of all the potential starters only Felix, Saunders and Beaven pitched 140+ innings last year. If they're heading into the playoffs what the heck would the rotation be for the playoffs? Felix...Iwakuma, Saunders? I'm cool with Beaven in general, but have trouble thinking I'd want to rely on him for the playoffs. Iwakuma is a veteran that'scleared 200 innings twice in Japan, so its conceivable he could handle the innings increase. Would they seriously push the innings up of any of the young guys for a playoff run and the playoffs? If they get a 1 game wild card playoff and Felix starts it, who's game 1 for divisional series starter? Hultzen, Paxton, Walker, Erasmo, Maurer and all the rest may be over their innings limits at that point, maybe Garland or Bonderman are brought along slow enough to still have something left.