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Q.  Are the Mariners as bad at hitting fatballs as we think, and as Colon underlined?

A.  This has been a seasonlong complaint at SSI, including but certainly not limited to Smoak and Ackley.  Here's a first-pitch 91 MPH fastball out-and-over, center cut.  Mariner batsman locks up like Jim Carrey "freezing" in The Mask.  

"Come on, you don't have to swing a sock full of nickels in a friendly rassle.  How does anybody ever hit that pitch?"

.........

Fangraphs splits out the pitch value info, and the data (once again) confirms SSI's shtick.  As y'know, we live to serve.  The Mariners are #14 in the AL against fatballs, and this despite the fact that Cano and Seager are absolutely brilliant against them.

Here it is by Mariner player type.  :- )   Ackley is -1.3 runs per 100 fastballs, while being plus against every other kind of pitch.   Nick Franklin is an unbelievable -3.2 runs per 100 fastballs - he can't hit the pitch he has crushed since age two.   Brad Miller is way negative.   Justin Smoak is lightly negative against fatballs and way negative against everything else - he's so bad against fatballs that he's cheating, and getting crushed by everythhing else.

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Q.  Surely there is some explanation.

A.  The sales metaphor:  a confused customer is a non-buying customer.   He ain't gonna make a decision.  When you don't know what to do, do nothing.  Mike Blowers complained earlier this year, "Be right on SOMETHING."  That's the baseball metaphor.

Mariners rookies come up so aggressive, MLB pitchers outsmart them a few times ...  and then Mariners rookies go into their deer-in-headlights mode.  Casey McGehee, as Mojician pointed out, learned the NPB way: just don't be so greedy out there.  Kyle Seager, as Kyle Seager pointed out, "doesn't try to do too much."  Does Robinson Cano give a horse's patootie whether you and I like his HR totals?  Lust for personal glory is not in his DNA.

Franklin's confusion is physically painful to watch; maybe he needs a Duck Dynasty beard too.  We have so many of these kids come up greedy, get gutkicked a few times, and then ....  hey, I like Miller to push through it.

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Q.  Surely SSI sees a bright side.

A.  You remember how Michael Saunders used to get locked up on 0-1, 0-2 counts?  He's now the best Mariner hitter against fastballs, barring the two Stars.

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Q.  In a related subject, when did Erasmo Ramirez turn into the guy from Saw IV?  Are 21 swings-and-misses an ML record?

A.  He wheeled out his Plus-Plus-Plus changeup, for one thing.  A true scouting "80" pitch.

Sorry if yer "don't like giving out these big grades."  When you can throw your changeup 41 times in one game, get 12 whiffs off that one pitch, and zero hits (!!) much less 4 balls even put into fair play, that's an 80 pitch.  Felix doesn't get those results off his change.

Here's the vid.  Ramirez threw the changeup consistently to drop just below the knees, with great arm action / salesmanship.  

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Q.  Did it have to do with the Mets being an NL team?

A.  SSI has always had the feeling that AL teams out-scout Seattle, and that this somehow disappears against NL teams.   No idea why that would be.

But the Mets were way ahead of Ramirez' change, and he was simply remorseless in exploiting it.  Maybe it was novelty, or maybe it was just execution.  Couldn't tell, but his next start will be interesting.

You see how these two subjects relate to each other.   This just shouldn't happen so often, where so many Mariner players are dazed and confused by enemy players who are loose and confident against them.  What are we, the Broncos?

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Q.  How would it be execution?  Why NOW?

A.  Was it my imagination, or did Erasmo look like he'd gained weight?  It seemed he was sluggish in his motion, and this was good.  Iwakuma is very leisurely in his motion.

As F/X shows, Ramirez' fastball velo was pleasantly down.  After the 1st inning, he looked like he started going for precision rather than power.  In Iwakuma style.  88 MPH located is far more effective than a short 91 MPH centered.

If Ramirez can follow this simple recipe:

• Changeup "sold," thrown knee-high or lower, thrown a TON
• Fastball sitting 88-91, not 90-93 (baseball, like golf, is a game of precision, not muscle)
• Slider to break off the plate

... Well, Ramirez has shown the skeeeels before, the 3'ish ERA based on a very centered mechanic.  Like Shandler says, once a player shows a skill, he ownz it.  Or maybe the Rays want to own it after Tuesday.

BABVA,

Dr D