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=== One-Page Resume, Dept. ===

To Dr. D's constant amuzement, or amasement, the Virtual Hit It Here Cafe around Seattle has ruled out a James Paxton parachute drop into Safeco.  However, Jay-Z knows his way around an unfriendly projectile launcher, and isn't afraid to deploy one to his neighbors' unpleasant surprise.

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Authorit-y X-llent Blogs:  Paxton's a minor leaguer in every sense of the word.  He might be ready in August.  We'll see.  20 minors starts, he's got.

Authorit-ative Website:  ... which is the same as Verlander, Lincecum and Weaver, right?

AX:  ... but Paxton's got all of 7 starts above class A ball.  ::sniff::  ::turns away::

AW:  :: tugs elbow sleeve once, sharply :: Which might be relevant if he hadn't blasted AA when he got there.

AX:  Um, what?   :: texting ::

AW:  Tim Lincecum started 13 games in the minors, of which exactly 5 were above class A.  Let me ax you, AX.  Would it have mattered if Timmy had detonated the Pacific Coast League for all 13 of those starts, rather than in just 5 of them?

The pitcher holds the ball.  Lincecum was going to waste anybody who stepped in, including NL hitters.  The Giants saw 5 starts in the upper minors, and they saw what they needed to see, because they weren't looking at stats and resumes.  They were looking at the ball in flight.

If Paxton had splattered A+ and then had trouble in AA, then he'd be on some sort of regular development path and your "seven starts in AA" would be an issue.  He didn't.  He was way too good for everybody.  

You don't "analyze" the results.  The results were that he emptied his magazine at the end of a Quentin Tarantino movie.  You going to ask why he shot which guy first?  Give him the main villain to fight and then we'll analyze his method.

In sabermetric terms, boys, you can state the theorem thusly:  Ya don't learn anything from gross mismatches.

AX:  I guess Lincecum only had five games in the high minors, but they got lucky on him.  He was the most overhyped prospect in the history of baseball.  Based on the best information at the time, he should have been in the minors another year, at least.

AW:  The best information being ... 

AX:  The best information being that no pitcher can get his game together in only 20 minors starts.

AW:  You're not talking high school baseball when you're in the College World Series.  Let's stop ignoring Lincecum's and Paxton's 55-60 starts in college.  Those guys work on their release points there.

Which would you rather have, 55-60 starts at a program like U of Kentucky, or two years in rookie and low-A baseball?

AX:  Well, fine, if you're that much of a big shot in college, one year is the new three years.  College plus one year in pro baseball might do it for some guys.  But Paxton walked 4 guys a game last year.

AW:  You noticed that Lincecum walked guys in the minors?  In college, Tim Lincecum walked 5-6 guys a game!  Over 6 as a soph and junior, and a good 4.8 per game as a senior.  He wasn't throwing any differently than he did in the minors, or in the majors.

When the hitters swing and miss, the counts go deep.  Kerry Wood had the same thing happen.  

Low-minors guys couldn't make contact off Paxton.  He went to AA and the walks dropped from 4.8 to 3.0.  It helps when the batters end a count themselves every once in a while.

AX:  Well, that's Lincecum.  He's a freak.

AW:  Excuse me, but Justin Verlander "had all of seven starts above class A" too, and only 20 total starts in the minors.  

Jered Weaver had 26 starts in the minors, and he was excellent from his first game in the bigs.  And he didn't have no 96 blinkin' mile per hour fastball like Lincecum, Verlander, and Paxton have.

AX:  We went through this last year.  You wanted to rush Michael Pineda to the bigs before he had a third pitch....

AW:  Exactly the same thing here.  James Paxton has a Clayton Kershaw repertoire and he is 34 years older than Kershaw was as a rookie.

It would be one thing if Paxton were trying to pitch like Jason Vargas.  He isn't.  He can let the ball go and let his career take care of itself.

AX:  Sigggggghhhhhhh.  Are you saying that James Paxton is a Lincecum- or Pineda-class guarantee?

AW:  Paxton stands where Pineda did after SSI saw him at Cheney.  What we said about Pineda, we want to see him two games, live, in spring training, see him from the CF camera.  We said about Pineda that if we see what we think we're going to, dial 1-800-BESTBET.  

Like we sez, Jay-Z didn't trade Michael Pineda because he thinks Blake Beavan has his back.  Dr. and Mrs. D will be in Arizona; we'll send a cyber-shtick postcard and we can all pop the corks.

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