Q.  How would the Mariners recreate the Giants' 2008-to-2009 recipe?

A.  By continuing to drown in their own soup on offense -- to the tune of an 82 performance --

And by finding a 100 ERA behind Felix in the rotation --

And by finding three scary guys in the bullpen.

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Q.  Could that be done?

A.  Obviously.

They'd have done it this year, except for the weird miscalculation on Ian Snell, and a few other general sadnesses in the evaluation realm.

How do you watch Ryan Rowland-Smith run a backwards control ratio -- with boiling gopheritis -- and keep sending him out there?  Hasn't the M's crack saber team heard the rumors about 4.0 strikeout rates?

They invested 13 starts in another AAA pitcher with a 3.8 strikeout rate, that being Luke French.

...............

Look, this is a park, and a defense, in which the most dubious ACTUAL big league pitcher runs a 100 ERA while sleepwalking on Ambien.

• David Pauley:  5.0 kays, 3.0 walks, lotsa homers ... 4.07 ERA, no problem
• Doug Fister:  4.9 strikeouts (yuck), 1.7 walks, good homers .. 4.11 ERA, no problem
• Jason Vargas, an 88 fastball and a change:  3.78 ERA, what, me worry

The 2011 Mariners need very little more than to pick the right pitchers, to run a great rotation ERA along with Felix.  No more Ian Snells, pretty please with sugar on top.

They just don't have the same challenge, getting pitching together, that the Rangers do.  Just get decent support and, with Felix and Safeco, they've got a playoff staff.

Here was a January 2010 explanation of exactly why Ian Snell fails.  SSI would think that the M's are triangulating the right SP's as we go into 2011.

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Q.  What would it take to do two years' worth of leap'ing in one year?  Could the M's go SF 2008 to SF 2010 in one shot?

A.  So they'd need to do the above, plus get to the 95 OPS+, in one offseason.

Ain't real easy in Safeco.  Even when they went from 61-101, to 85 wins, in 2009, the offense didn't improve.  The pitching did.

The offense went only from 89 to 92.  Huh.  One thing they do have going against them, is their dogmatism about gloves on defense.

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Q.  Gotta be easy to improve an offense from 79, though, right?

A.  Right.

Hey, the M's had a 44 OPS+ from Adam Moore.  An unbelievable 73 from Kotchman at 1B ?!  They had 71 from their third baseman.  There are many, many AAA players who can do better than that.

Considerably.

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Part 5

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