Super-poster Spec sez,

Churchill, who is plugged in and worthy of considerable weight, keeps saying, essentially, "no way they start the year with Moore, Tui and Saunders all as starters" (and, of course, that would also entail Carp).

Also, he says Ackely is more than a year away and 2b Ackley is a full year-and-a-half away, at least.

Philosophically, can you make a run for the pennant with that many virtual rookies? or is that just old-school scouts spouting convential wisdom?

FWIW, I don't see it happening, either. But is it just plain a bad idea?

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Jason's site is of considerable weight, that's for sure :- ) although we have an ideal that the tea leaves were more than enough on this one.  Three reasons that it's safe to assume that Zduriencik won't have rookies at LF, 3B and C:

1. Just by virtue of all the money they have, we can expect them to fill at least one of those spots with an import, right?
2. And would agree that Zduriencik is more skeptical of rookies than the average GM.  He's said as much.
3. Zduriencik has already been seen pursuing (practically) every name available at 3B and LF, including Scutaro over Tui, which most MC/SSI posters found very annoying.

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=== Contend with Holes in the Lineup? ===

Would a Stars & Scrubs (real-life) GM play two or three rookies, in order to make payroll room for more stars?

Most contenders, other than the Red Sox and Yankees, have several weak spots and several heroes.  It's pretty rare to flip through b-ref.com and see a team with all 90+ OPS's.  Contenders have holes and they have major holes.

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=== 2009 Twins ===

The 2009 Twins are a good example of a contender that had an extreme Stars & Scrubs batting order.

They had a 44 (!!) at second base, that being Alexi Casilla -- Casilla's job-share partners weren't a lot better than he was.

They had a 64 in center field, that being Carlos Gomez, the key "return" they got for Johann Santana IIRC.

They had an 83 at third base, 31-year-old journeyman Joe Crede, who in 2007 posted a 49 for the White Sox.

And they had two other below-average hitters.

The reason they won the division?  They had the league MVP, Mauer, and three other big sticks, Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel.

They were below-average in pitching, too, with a 97 ERA+, but had the 5th-best team OPS in the league, by virtue of the fact that they had four legitimate impact hitters carrying the team.

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The Twins are an illustration only.  Baseball history is saturated with contending teams that had two or three or four or even five holes on the field.  It just depends on whether they had enough of the Adam Dunns and Ichiros to carry the team.   The 2009 Twins did, since Cuddyer and Kubel had big years.

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=== The 2010 M's ===

Michael Saunders doesn't even count for purposes of this discussion.  Even if he doesn't hit, he is precisely what the Mariners have been chasing since the 2008-09 offseason began.

Suppose that Michael Saunders hit for a 75 OPS+?  How would that differ from what Endy Chavez gave them in LF?   Saunders is a simply TREMENDOUS defender in left field, and you know we don't say that lightly.   If the Mariners went out and got another backup CF to play LF, and he were 30 years old, they'd be fine with that, right?

So what's the problem in committing to a player whose worst case scenario is to be Endy Chavez in LF?

Being as the Mariners like the idea of glove-first, light-hitting LF's anyway, what "rookie risk" is involved there?

Cancel the fraction.  Saunders simply doesn't count as a rookie risk.  His glove automatically banks the return you're looking for there, anyway.  From their point-of-view, of course.

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Same argument on Adam Moore.  They want defense behind the plate.  Moore is universally acclaimed as a "special" take-charge captain back there.  So what if he hits for a 70 OPS+?   Wouldn't that be okay from a veteran?

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There's three rookies, and then there's "Three Rookies."  It's not like we're talking Tui, Carp, and Ackley -- that would be a completely different conversation.

If the M's played Saunders, Moore, and Tui, they'd only really be rolling the dice at 3b.

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Part II