Think Tank: M's 11, stRangers 10
May the odds be ever in our favor, Dept.

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MtGrizzly:

It's odd to type...but great AB by Jackson there.

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And the HR earlier was off a knee-high fastball, raising his count of long fly balls as a Mariner to about one.  Hey, if Action Jackson slashes --- > the league average this year, there will have been bigger surprises.  The Antikythera Mechanism, for instance.  The Helmet Catch.  Any Odell Beckham catch (in terms of the laws of physics).  But if Jackson plays well this year we're going to give the Big Red Machine a run for its money...

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MtGrizzly:

Putting Cano on to pitch to Cruz?

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In sheerly abstract terms, that IBB took the M's win expectancy from 62.4% to 64.6%.  Not sure why, since Cano can't possibly score a run that means anything and there are force plays at second base that matter.  Guess it must be the fact that a walk now loses the game?

Yeah.  Come to think of it James has remarked that he would never, N-E-V-E-R, put the pitcher in such a position.  But of course the stRangers are thinking in terms of Cano's batting average and lefthandedness.

You've got Cruz' matchup vs Feliz (don't know what it is).  You've got the same question when Feliz is over 30 pitches, LOL.  You've got Cruz' matchup against anybody when he has just hit 8 homers in 12 games.  You got a lotta stuff.  You got the fact that Cruz is on pace for 108 homers, but adjusting for homers, that's only about 85 homers on the season.

I'll go right-on-right with my buzzsaw closer.  Could be wrong.

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Gordon Gross:

Season. Changing. Momentum. The MOTO proves worth every cent.

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John had me falling out of my chair with his MLB Doctor routine after Cruz' second homer.  After the first homer he took a slow-motion swing and peered at the ball going off into the distance ... "Yeah, you'd think that if a guy hits a home run every time he's up they might want to take a look."  Nod.  "We're sure you're fine.  But if you wouldn't mind just filling this up real quick..."

After the second one ... can't do it justice.  Won't try.  Do you suppose Cruz has ever hit 8 homers in 12 games before?  Much less the first 12 games of a year?

His highest SLG ever:  .576.  He may have finished about there too, that year, if he'd played it out.  Thought experiment:  whatever he was going to SLG in Strat-O-Matic this year, you would now add what to it?  25 points?  More?  Less?

I know that you add 7 homers to what a lot of people set as the over/under :- )

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In baseball, can such a game really create momentum.  We're sure that elsewhere on the 'net this morning you'll be able to find plenty of "No Evidence Exists" commentary on the subject.

Dr. D's shtick on the subject?  This is a real good team to start with.  Can such a game WAKE UP a good team?  That's what I wanna know.

See you at the park,

Jeff

 

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