Taijuan 8 2 0 0 0 8 0
His xFIP was never that bad anyway. … ..

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On the most recent occasion that Taijuan was torn limb-from-limb, May 21st, Dr. D opined that the difference between Good Taijuan and Bad Taijuan could be illustrated in 3-dimensional space:

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The Bad Taijuan -- that's the first diagram, LrKrBoi29 -- is throwing a "spikeball" that is only 2-4 MPH slower than his fastball.  Also, he's leaving it (nervously) up in the strike zone, because he's not following through with 'elan.  He is worrying enough about fastball location that the ball isn't driving deeeeep enough into the zone, in its allotted 0.4 seconds.

The Good Taijuan, however, sacrifices location for extra depth on his fastball, and sets about his coach's business of changing the eye level.  

Or, so saith the gospel of SSI.  Hokay then:  last time around, Taijuan threw a 2-hit walkless shutout with 8 strikeouts.  This against a lefty-stacked lineup that included

  • LH Kipnis, .340/.400/.525
  • LH Michael Brantley, .300/.380/.475
  • LH Brandon Moss, .300/.360/.465 vs RHP
  • LH Nick Swisher, name looks great
  • LH Michael Bourn, name looks great
  • LH David Murphy, .325/.360/.460

Did Taijuan actually throw diff'rnt, or was it just one of those things?

The troof is, he did throw diff'rnt.  For one thing, his spikeball was back.  Here is the direct link to the Brooks chart we'll try to paste in below:

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Tell you a little trade secret:  it's tough to get much out of a pitcher's heatmap, because he "poaches" strikes right down the middle when there is no danger.  Such as when it's first pitch to a passive hitter, or he's up four runs, or he's got the batter fooled, or it's Dustin Ackley who is batting.  All the pitchers' heatmaps look pretty much the same, after a million pitches.  Don't tell anybody; it's part of your competitive edge at SSI.

But even here, if you open the chart in its own window you will see that the 20 purple splitfingers just couldn't be better located:

  • 7 of them are precisely at the knees
  • 7 more of them are just barely low or away or both (broke from inside the zone to outside it)
  • 3 are way low, no threat to be hit
  • 3 are in the zone, away
  • Only 1/20 is where the "Bad Taijuan" image above purports to have it 

You could scan through a whale of a lot of heat maps* before you'll see better on a forkball.

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As well, Taijuan went to a simplified 2-pitch arsenal; Brooks tracked him for only 6 curve balls.  Check the same graphic and you'll see that 5 of the 6 broke outside the strike zone.  Jolly good shew!

Blowers has pointed out that when you get a young kid throwing lots of fastballs, their arms tend to get all loose an' jangly.  Paxton and Taijuan are building velocity here.

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Taijuan's fastball looked to me, all night, as though he was keeping it out of the middle of the zone.  Here's an example, his whuff of Michael Brantley in the fifth.  Graphics Link at mlb.com:

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The blue #2 ball ... hey, isn't that what's on a pool table? ... that was the one curve that Walker hung in the game, according to Brooks.  The pitch sequence:

  • 0-0:  96 MPH, one fastball too high, Brantley fouls it back
  • 0-1:  Hung a curve, ump missed it, called it a ball
  • 1-1:  96 MPH, exactly like the first pitch, Brantley takes this one
  • 2-1:  96 MPH, knee high, change the eye angle, freezes Brantley
  • 2-2:  97 MPH, letter high, Brantley ticks it back into Zuumball's glove

In fact, since Archer roasted us alive for a 12-strikeout two-hitter, and Salazar was also dominating through five innings, let's compare the fastballs of all three kids in their latest-and-greatest outings:

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Kid MPH Hop/Rise # FB's Whiffs % Strike % Not in Play Offspeed game
Taijuan 96 11" 76 12 (!) 78 73 Passable
Salazar 96 9" 76 8 63 56 Nominal
Archer 97 12" 46 3 63 56 AWESOME 

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Chris Archer had a wipeout slider on which he got 10 swings and misses in only 35 pitches.  He also had a plus-plus changeup which gave him -2.09 runs in only 14 pitches.  Despite this, the Mariners swung and missed only 3 times at his tremendous fastball.

It's a funny thing, for a kid like Taijuan, if he can get that first pitch over.  It means that as the AB progresses, on 0-1 and 1-1 and 1-2, he can get a little less of the plate.  Then when the big hitters do wind up guessing fastball and getting fastball, it's high enough on the handle of their bats (or whatever) that it's a ball in play.  As opposed to a ball three decks outside play.

Pitching cliches are seldom one-size-fits-all.  But with Taijuan, the "Be Aggressive" line means more than it usually does.  When Crude Taijuan throws 96 MPH for strike one, he's going to be all right.

When Refined Taijuan throws the fastball up and down, and keeps the spikeball at the knees, he's gonna be more than all right.  With K-Pax out, he's gonna be in there, so maybe he can rhythm in now.

Enjoy,

Dr D

 

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