Since You Axed, Dept. :- )
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Q. What's the coefficient of confidence in Mr. League, going forward?
A. Not real high. He's still a head case with a great arm and a lifetime 3.98 ERA ... 4.88 this year.
The closer and in fact the whole bullpen is makeshift ... but then again, there is no team in baseball with less pressure on its pen. So the M's have some time to replace all the bondo with some welded steel.
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Q. Supposing that I just want to enjoy League's 35-of-42 saves or whatever he's going to do this year... would the Mainframe hassle me about it?
A. Sure, knock yourself out ... I mean, he's going to wind up saving 35. If you want to just take the pitch-tip HR losses as part of the normal closer cost of doing business, hey. Baseball's for fun.
From the Mariners' standpoint, they need to be proactive about problems, right?
If Milton Bradley has a 100 OPS+ but that's based on a .420 BABIP, should the Mariners relax until such time as Bradley is batting .199? Or should they be fixing the (camoflaged) problem now?
I'm rooting for the Mariners to fix a problem that, IMHO, isn't fixed yet. I'm white-knuckle on every League appearance ... but maybe the problem doesn't worry you. Kewl by me.
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Q. How is League's pitch selection right now?
A. It's a funny thing. After League's four consecutive L's, and the pressure reached the point wherein Carl Willis commented that League can't afford to (in effect) tip his pitches, League ran out there the next two or three games and defiantly pitched his way.
But the last three games or so, League HAS thrown several first-strike splitters. His first pitch of the save on Tuesday was a splitter for a called strike.
So at this point there is real progress. ... League only needs a little deviation from his comfort zone to be an elite closer. He doesn't need 35% first-pitch splitters. He only needs the hitters to be aware of it.
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Q. What's with the idea that the M's would be on a 24-7 roll with 100% saves? Does SSI imagine that a closer can save 100% of his games?
A. As the regulars here grok, with that one, Dr. D is saying nothing more than --- > "wow, did you realize HOW good the M's rotation has been?"
::shrug:: Fine -- the M's are actually 20-11 in the last 31 games, including the brain-dead 4 straight losses. With this offense? What rotation could accomplish that?
And just imagine if League had thrown a couple of first-pitch splitters during his record-setting meltdown. Can you imagine looking at 22-9, 23-8 or 24-7 -- with these hitters? This rotation has been Phillies West.
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Q. Were League's 4 straight losses part of the cost of doing business ... or were they avoidable?
A. They were losses caused by stupidity and stubbornness, not by Pascal's Triangle.
Some losses - that's just baseball. Other losses were your own fault and you shouldn't have lost them. If Wedge left Vargas in for 140 pitches and he finally lost 2-1, would that be a loss that should have been avoided?
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SSI had been hollering about League's incredible 100.00% pitch counts for weeks, and then League lost a couple games, and then LL appropriately joined the conversation on the predictability issue (properly crediting us, BTW), and then Shannon Drayer thanked LL for its discovery, and then Carl Willis confirmed publicly that (in effect) tipping your pitches isn't a super smart thing to do --- > and now Brandon League is finally starting to use a professional pitch mix.
Small favors :- ) but don't kid yourself that those were just four losses caused by his arm being tired, or something. He threw them away.
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Those 4 losses by League set a 36-year-old franchise record. We're not talking physical mistakes here.
These were games lost in quick succession, 10 runs in 2 innings over four games -- merely because of lack of preparation. That stretch all but ended the Mariners' season!
Of course, slop happens. But BABIP, or down velo, etc., wasn't the slop in THAT case. League should have lost no more than 2 of them. HE LOST THEM BECAUSE HE REFUSED TO THINK. Now you're asking me whether I "get to pretend he shouldn't have lost them?" :- )
Um, yeah, I think I might be on the right side a' that one. SSI does not sign off on athletes losing because they refused to think during competition.
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Q. Is League a dependable closer going forward?
A. Last year he lost 7 games in relief, had a poor ERA, and if you check his 2010 pitch sequences you'll find precisely the same 100.00% type FB pitch counts:
In fact Brandon League has a lousy lifetime ERA of 3.98 out of the pen, a firmly negative lifetime W/L record, and here we are, talking about one of the very best arms in baseball. If Mariano Rivera had a mediocre career due to stubbornness, I would have a problem with that too.
Brandon League didn't lose because of honest physical mistakes or bad bounces. He didn't get unlucky in Cleveland. He did what he has always done: he threw predictable pitches and he got blasted.
This debate is a non-starter. Brandon League has less pitchability in his entire sufrboi body than Erik Bedard has in one shred of his left rotator cuff. It has held League back his whole career and it is still holding him back now.
He's won some games, the outcomes have been good, so we should forget about the underlying problem while things are going good? ::shrug::
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Q. All things considered, is League an acceptable closer, even with the predictability issues?
A. There isn't a way in the world that you can take Brandon League's 100.00% pitch counts into a playoff series against the Red Sox or Yankees. They'd be fighting to get to the plate. League, the way he is right now, is a shim -- a band-aid until you find your real closer.
That said, League's arm is SO good that he's going to be able to save 15/18 games, or something, even bopping along at a pathetic 6 strikeouts a game. During the regular season, for a team that hasn't yet hit the big time, I'm fine with him as a shim.
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The M's need to be urgently working the problem, before the next crisis hits -- being proactive. Very likely, they are. Could be that League's recent couple of splitfinger strike ones are the firstfruits of that.
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Q. Anything good to say about League? Does SSI enjoy his performances?
A. We do not enjoy seeing him come into the game, no. Sorry.
But he has Troy Percival / Armando Benitez velocity coupled with a Sasaki forkball, and at times he commands it like Michael Pineda. When the man comes in and hits the black for strike one, he is as lights-out as the superstars are.
He can be dazzling, no doubts there. In any given appearance, once it's clear he's got command that day, we get some REAL quick ninth innings :- )
We'd compare him to Allen Iverson, maybe. When he's got it working, it's fun to watch. The underlying lack of preparation kinda spoils it for me.
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Q. What if he does learn the Sasaki Lesson and decide to start keeping hitters off balance?
A. That would be great.
He'd make his $50 million in baseball, and the M's would get a year or two of knockdown closing, and Dr. D would get to root for playoff wins, as opposed to playoff appearances.
The last week, he's shown signs. I'll believe it when I see it ... but then again, we've seen a little. You Go Amig-O.
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Your friend,
Dr D
Which do you close with?
Aardsma with the meh mechanics, the results, but questionable house-of-cards?
Or League, the nickel head, meh results, but great talent?
I would go get someone else too, but Big Time Closer© is as expensive as a 5 hole hitter or as a solid number 2 pitcher, both on the open market and on the trade market.
Pretty tough to go out and buy Mr. Magic Closer. Have to develop him from within.Both Aardsma and League are marginal, white-knuckle closers ... so either will do in lieu of Chris Ray ...League's white-knuckle 'cause he chooses to be. Like we sez, SSI has little use for the athlete who chooses not to think when he's on the field.But compared to the alternatives? Sure...
Doc and all, thoughts? From Drayer's chat:
What's your feeling on Ichiro? A lot of people seem worried he's "aging" (aren't we all?) and on the decline. He always slumps at some point. Any reason to think things are different this year?
Shannon Drayer: Thank you. As I type this Ichiro gets a hit. Worrying about aging at this point of his career is legit. It is going to happen someday. The concern is in the way he has been making the outs. He is pounding the ball into the ground rather than driving it. His line drive rate has been steadily declining for the last few years and that is a concern because he is going to slow down and he isn't going to be able to leg things out like he traditionally has. When he is convinced of this he will change his game. He told me this two years ago. He adapts. The question is, is this a prolonged slump that he will pull out of or is it time to change his game?
The other thing that is somewhat disturbing is his play in the outfield. He simply isn't covering the ground that he used to. Good to see the skipper put him at DH to give his legs a break today. We will see more of this.
I'm with you in hating to watch League come in. I didn't like Putz for similar reasons (moreso before he jetted into the stratosphere by pitching differently and using a much more polished splitter). The biggest thing I've noticed about League, especially when he's off, is that hitters are making TONS of contact on his pitches. Certainly they're hitting it to the defenders, mostly, but even that frightens me since our defense is a tad bit more reputation than production. During his meltdown, though, they were making HARD contact that even if they had gold glovers on the plays that were botched (Peguero & Wilson each booting some balls, not helping League one bit) I'm not sure those plays are made. The ball was especially getting BLASTED whether it was right to an infielder, in a hole, or near an outfielder. I agree that it was likely due to some predictability combined with a massive loss in command by League. And just because the RESULTS are going in League's favor right now, I'm not convinced he's really pitching any better. Maybe a bit, because he's getting more swinging strikes & strikeouts looking (and that splitter he threw to Luke Scott for strike 3 in Tuesday's game was insanely good). But overall, hitters are still making contact and that frightens me with League...
And BTW, I still owe you this 2005 Bowman Chrome Felix card sitting on my desk, graded 9.5 and in the display case :- )If you want to e-mail me your mailing address (just PM me through this system if you like) I'll send it out to yer............Agree that League has had a lot of balls hit at people. And his K/9 is right there for anybody to see.He certainly beats Chris Ray, but .....
He's posting a Silva-like BB line there.
From my standpoint, he's pretty close to being there, in terms of pitch ratios.And it is sweeeeeet to see. This guy is definitely enjoying the hot seat.