SUMMARY TO DATE:

REPLACEMENT LEVEL: 48.0 W
CATCHERS: 2.4
- Adam Moore: 1.7
- Rob Johnson: 0.8
- Josh Bard / Eleizer Alfonzo: -0.1
FIRST BASEMEN: 1.7
- Ryan Garko: 1.0
- Casey Kotchman: 0.5
- Mike Sweeney: 0.2
SECOND BASEMEN: 4.2
- Chone Figgins: 4.2
- Jose Lopez: 0.3
- Jack Hannahan: -0.3
THIRD BASEMEN: 2.6
- Jose Lopez: 2.3
- Matt Tuiasosopo: 0.1
- Jack Hannahan: 0.2
SHORTSTOPS: 1.0
- Jack Wilson: 0.7
- Matt Tuiasosopo: 0.4
- Josh Wilson: -0.1
OUTFIELDERS: 13.5
- Ichiro Suzuki: 5.2
- Franklin Gutierrez: 5.0
- Milton Bradley: 2.3
- Eric Byrnes: 0.9
- Ryan Langerhans / Michael Saunders: 0.1

We've got a few interesting issues to work out when it comes to the DH slot. First, we need to know whether a strict platoon situation will happen with Griffey (if Wak is smart, Griffey will never start against a lefty unless forced to by injuries to both Sweeney and Byrnes), and whether guys like Sweeney and Bradley might eat at some of his playing time even against right handed pitchers. Second, we need to know whether Griffey has any real shot at a significant offensive rebound.. Third, we need to know whether the Mariners will prefer to simply insert Sweeney against lefties or whether the Byrnes to left / Bradley to DH three-to-make-two rotation will get preference.

Then there is the matter of the at bats that get spent on pitchers hitting during NL games, the at bats that go to thus-far-unaccounted-for scrubs to deal with short term injuries and the question of what to do with September call-ups.

But let's state the things in which I am fairly confident to start this post off.

1) Mike Sweeney is still every bit as good a hitter today as he was five years ago WHEN HEALTHY. Once the back spasms stopped last year, he went right back to the same hitting lines he used to run in KC...that being .300/.340/.500. If he can stay on the field and healthy, I believe nothing has changed in Sweeney's skill set that would make me suspect he'll hit worse than .820 as a Mariner.

2) Milton Bradley is going to need days in the DH spot to keep his legs from barking. How many, we're not sure, but we're willing to guess that he gets at least 40 or 50 starts there.

3) Griffey's total playing time will, consequently, be significantly reduced in 2010 unless he breaks out offensively (because he'll be competing with Bradley's .840 OPS, Sweeney's .820 OPS and Byrnes good D and baserunning in left). And I don't think Griffey is likely to bounce back all the way to that level, but we'll discuss that in more detail shortly. The projections will reflect this healthy competition for DH/PH ABs.

KEN GRIFFEY JR.: .760 (.245/.335/.425)

Let's see...Griffey was always a flyball/backspin hitter, but as soon as the line drives went, his BABIP plummeted. Since 2005, he's hitting 26% line drives...very low for a power guy. And his BABIP in that time is .265. This is what happens to old sluggers when their batspeed starts going (especially if they're backspin hitters, rather than Thome-esque topspin/line drive hitters)...we EXPECT their BABIP to be lower. Perhaps not .220 low, but lower than normal.

Griffey hit phenomenally well at home last year, and was terrible on the road. But this gets filed in the category of "splits that don't mean diddly" in my book. The bottom line here is that Griffey now has an old man's slow bat and is gradually losing his power. I expect this to continue. I also expect the injury bug to bite him at least once in a manner bad enough to land him on the DL. At which time, the Mariners will be choosing between Sweeney's bat and Byrnes' glove (and possibly a guy like Michael Saunders or Mike Carp from AAA).

MILTON BRADLEY: .840 (.285/.390/.450)

Nothing has changed here...the only question for Bradley (see the outfielders post for further discussion) is how much he contributes ot the DH spot overall.

MIKE SWEENEY: .780 (.290/.335/.445)

Above, I opined that Sweeney is still secretly an .820+ OPS hitter...but of course that comes with the caveat that he needs to be healthy. This projection, as before with the first base column, reflects the reality that he'll try to play through back spasms at some point in the season and the overall numbers will suffer for it. Still, if he can play semi-regularly, we may come to see him as preferable to Junior.

SCRUBS & PITCHERS: .510 (.180/.230/.280)

The average AL team derives about 110 plate appearances (as of 2009) from guys who don't get at least 40 PA total. I did not actually know this (IOW, the last 9 or 10 guys that get at bats, make up a not-insignificant share of the playing time when combined and are a net drag on offense...this includes pitchers, fourth catchers, spare middle infielders and September call-ups). This projection will assume that the Mariners are, essentially an average team this year w/r/t injury likelihood, September call-ups and pitchers.

WAR Stack (Player: PA, RC, WAR)
- Griffey Jr.: 310, 40, 0.3
- Bradley: 170, 20, 0.8
- Sweeney: 160, 20, 0.7
- Scrubs: 110, 0, -0.7