Here again was D-O-V's April 2006 rationale on going ahead with a Jeremy Reed for Jon Lester trade.

To be fair, after Lester's cancer occurred, it certainly looked at that time like it was a deal you'd best avoided.  Since then, however, he has come back to become one of the finest SP's in the American League, never mind one of the finest cheap pitchers.

In 2008, Lester went 16-6, 3.21 (144 ERA+) -- as a lefthanded pitcher in Fenway park.  He fanned 152 men and walked only 66.  And how does a lefthand pitcher give up 14 homers in 210 innings in Fenway?

Jon Lester delivered this Warren Spahn performance for $421,000.

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The evaluation in spring 2006:

Q: Does Jon Lester have a plus curve or does he not?

A: Here's a prime example of the silly stuff that scouts throw at us.  Cyber-Seattle argued:

Lester throws 90-93 from the left side and uses a cut fasball at times, and while he throws a change and a curve, neither one are major league pitches right now. He’s essentially beating people with his fastball.

While a Red Sox fan was incredulous:

Moving on to Lester. His curveball is certainly a plus pitch, I don’t know who you are talking to or reading when you heard it was not.

The problem with the assumptions about Lester's curve? … is that Jon Lester had 163 strikeouts in 148 IP in 2005, in the high minors.

High-minors hitters do not strike out on 92-mph fastballs! They strike out on breaking pitches, or on FB's outside the zone.

High-minors hitters don't strike out on fastballs, period, unless the fastballs are 98 mph — and even then?, check Felix' K rates for a surprise as to just how well AA and AAA hitters can defend hemselves against high-90's gas.

Want to try to show me the last one-pitch, 92-mph lefty who fanned 10 men a game every year? Thought not.

*Honestly, I've seen this same AA/AAA pitcher discussion 100 times before, since 1976. I'll bet you dollars to donuts that Lester has a hellacious curve ball, and that the scout saw him on a few days when he was inconsistent with it. Big hairy deal. So is John Lackey inconsistent with his curve ball. So is CC Sabathia.

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Q: Is it possible that Papelbon and Lester will fail?

A: Of course it is, as it is possible for Jeremy Reed to fail. Neither has more than a 50% chance of being a plus MLB starter.

But to call them anything less than Grade A prospects is silliness. 30 major league teams want them, and most want them for their 2006 rotations.

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Q: Should Jeremy Reed be untouchable?

A:This offseason, Jeremy Reed has become the greatest .352-slugging ballplayer in the history of Mariners baseball.

I like Reed, but come on. You're not trading Miguel Cabrera, here. You're trading a guy who might, in a few years, be an above-average bat playing an above-average center field. And who, right now, can barely hit at all.

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Q: What if you weren't getting Matt Clement back? Would you trade your young stud CF for an MLB-ready blue-chip starter?

A: Blowing a hole in CF for the purpose of obtaining another (perhaps better) Nageotte-Foppert-Carvajal would be odd.

But in chess, we do not evaluate the second move of a tactical combination until we clearly understand what the fourth move of that combo is. We can't comment intelligently on Reed-for-Papelbon if we are blind to what the followup plan is.

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Q:  What does D-O-V see in these two lads?

A: From a sabermetric point of view, both have huge K rates and good K/BB ratios, as well as toolbox "templates" that are well-tailored to attack MLB hitters.  Neither has a toolbox that suggests otherwise.

Papelbon runs 9k's and 2bb's.  He already had his baptism by MLB fire and ran a 2.65 ERA.  His toolbox profile is one I like:  righty 95 mph, power slider, splitfinger, all with command?  …it reminds me of the young John Smoltz.  Kevin Millwood, Matt Clement are other examples of power pitchers with slider/splitter attacks.  At the extreme end, Roger Clemens used fastball-split as a young pitcher.

Papelbon's walk rate is very exciting for the kind of pitcher he is.

Lester is not as polished, apparently; he hasn't pitched in AAA, much less aced his MLB-debut exam.  .. but here you are talking about a power lefty in Safeco, a healthy Bobby Madritsch with a change, or at the extreme end, Barry Zito with more velocity.  A 10k lefty is a great thing.

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Q: The bottom line?

A: Over the last 30 years, when we have seen every team in baseball chasing an MLB-ready pitcher … or at least agreeing that the blue-chipper was chase-worthy …. that blue-chipper turned out, in retrospect, to have been a very good bet.

The level of covetousness all around baseball, for Papelbon and Lester both, gives a real good seismo as to what scouts are visualizing for these two lads.

There are no guarantees with either — nor with AJ Burnett, for that matter. But they are this year's version of Scott Kazmir or CC Sabathia.

Cheers,

Dr D