1
Completely agreed.
Except for the part where you claimed Hairston Jr. could play defense.
He's 33 (!) and has not been a good second baseman, let alone a SS or CF, since he 29.
POTD Jerry Hairston Jr
So Wakamatsu-san says that if Clement is DH'ing, he'd probably better have a 3rd catcher. LOL. Already I'm the guy's biggest fan...
But to make that 3rd catcher possible, he needs a 2-in-1 utility glove. Well, OK. I missed the memo that said, if you don't suit up 12 pitchers, then the umps enter a 9-0 score. But whatever.
..............
I'd have thought that Jerry Hairston Jr. would have been such a player. Hairston legitimately backs up at every position including SS and CF, in the sense that Willie backed up at all of those positions. But then something we read suggested that if Hairston's here, then he STARTS AT SECOND BASE ... "ALLOWING" LOPEZ TO PLAY FIRST?
Looking left and right, we see amigos talking about Hairston playing a key role for a surprising 2009 renaissance. Let me go clearly on the record about this: WHAAAAAAAAAAAAT?!
.............
Hairston, in 2008, someHow someWay cobbled together a .384 OBP. This miracle apparently left many of us hallucinating that we could acquire a dry-cleaned incarnation of Mark McLemore, ca. 2001-glories era.
Nay verily!
Hairston 2008 - 7.5 runs per 27 outs
Hairston 2007 - 2.2 runs per 27 outs (count them, 2.2)
Hairston 2006 - 2.2 runs per 27 outs
Hairston career - 4.2 runs per 27 outs
Hairston's age - 33 going into next season
The idea is kicked around a lot these days, "this is the kind of player who ages early." Yeah. The kind of player who ages early is the kind who scuffled to play in the bigs at 27. We've seen plenty 'nuff sub-100 OPS+'s. Hairston, for the years 2006-07, had a sub-40 OPS+. Jemanji could hit that.
You've heard of buying high and selling low? What would you think if Willie B had a year with a .384 OBP in part-time play, and then some team went out and planned their season around his doing that for them?
In 11 seasons, Hairston has had 2 seasons in which is OPS was average or better. Last year was one of them, and it occurred over in that other league. You buying in?
.
=== He Has Been a Good Player, Dept. ===
Back in Hairston's prime, he used to run 1.00 eye ratios and very efficient line-drive splits (equal GB and FB with plenty of LD). He worked the count and squared the ball up -- and put together a few power-sapped but effeicnet [4.5, 5.0 runs per game] years.
Those were long gone at 30 and 31 in Texas. His eye ratios reflected his scuffles, and he popped the ball up while fighting those rearguard actions.
Hairston did go over to the NL and climb halfway back to normal -- 0.6 eye or so, and good G/F splits -- but now he's turning 33 and returning to the AL. The partial-rebound in Cincy isn't to be chased by an AL team buying his age-33 season.
...........
Hairston'sfine, if filling precisely the role that Willie did: providing reasonable defense anywhere, stealing a base for you in the 8th inning, and any offense being gravy. Don't think of his addition as providing the "dot of an i" or the "cross of a T" more than Willie would.
Why did we get rid of Willie, again? It would probably be presumptuous of me to figure it had something to do with Willie being married to the old regime. This isn't a complaint, just a musing.
In establishing new chemistry, new intangibles, fine, you do need to put folks on notice that you've got nothing against handing out pink slips. We all know how the Oakland A's respond to the sword of Damocles.
..................
Bring Hairston in, no problemo. Or bring in any other utility SS who can, by definition, run out to any lesser position on the diamond. But let's not ask Ron W. to carry the mail for Harry P. when he's doing just fine where he is.
Much less to start at Ron at second base and Quidditch seeker. Yowch.
Cheers,
jemanji
.................
images
http://www.hros-bad-laer.de/2002_2003/harrypotter/quidditch.jpg
http://www.mlahanas.de/Greeks/Mythology/RM/WestallDamocles.jpg
Comments
2
Ya, put the Hairston pipe down Z.
Hopefully the new statistical department is at work telling Z what a bad idea this is.
3
I'll preface this by saying I'm not a closer Hairson lover. And I agree with 85% of what Doc says. But, since we're dealing with a new GM, I think the question, "What is he thinking?" is not only reasonable -- but it is important to keep asking. Here's my instinct on some traits that Z "might" be looking at:
2008 Seattle
SS - YuBet -- .705 career OPS -- suspect defense - lazy? - development - nil -- statistically stagnant
Util - Willie B - .646 career OPS - plays almost anywhere - hits almost nothing -- career year OBP result - .662 OPS, and stole 14 of 17 bases.
Hairston -- career OPS = .700 (898 major league games). Plays anywhere, but mostly SS and OF. Has some speed.
Here's the thing. As limited as YuBet's hitting prowess may be -- he was CLEARLY a better hitter than Willie B., and still has some nominal potential upside. But, the club actually had NOBODY on the roster to offer a legitimate threat of supplanting YuBet.
Yes, Hairston, is pretty similar to Willie B -- except he actually has "some" pop in his bat, whereas Willie was the ultimate Bavasi contact demon. NOTE: Hairston's minor league line: .302/.381/.452 -- that's 79 points of patience and 150 points of isolated power. In the majors, his career line is: .260/.330/.370 -- 70 points of patience and 110 isolated power. Okay, he can't quite handle the majors - so he doesn't start. But, his eye is better than half the Seattle if-its-in-the-same-zipcode-swing lineup already.
The interesting thing about Hairston's career year in 2008 with Cinci (as opposed to Willie's with Seattle), is that Hairston's line: .326/.384/.487 -- shows 58 points of patience - much lower than normal -- but 161 points of isolated power.
The average for 2008 was undoubtedly flukish -- 66 points above his career average. But the isolated power actually harkens back to what he did in the minors - so it's not "completely" laughable to think something real might be going on.
This is one of the inherent problems of looking at stats for career backups. Playing part-time screws up production. It is not unusual for a guy relegated to part-time duty to flounder -- and then when finally given a chance to start - suddenly he thrives - and exceeds ALL expectations. (Today, many Seattle fans are under the mistaken impression that Ibanez was always a productive hitter -- when in fact, he had a career that was probably a hairs breath away from ending badly until he got one final shot in Seattle).
This is NOT intended to suggest that Hairston is going to hit anywhere near his .833 minor league line. It *IS* meant to suggest, however, that Hairston could easily bring a superior bat to the club than the one currently playing SS.
As to Matt's note on Hairston's defense - he says the last time he was good was at age 29. That would've been with the Cubs, (who are typically top third in DER). He then moved on to Texas and Cinci. These are NOT known as paragons of defense on the organizational level. I don't know how good or bad Hairston may be defensively -- but I am CERTAIN that the bar is currently set REALLY low.
So -- you've got a young (and seemingly unmotivated) SS, who is inked thru 2011 -- with a 2012 option. He has shown no signs of development offensively, and shown signs of regression defensively. So, let's bring in a journeyman utility guy, (generic value regardless of other considerations), and PRESS YuBet. Instead of, "shape up or Willie, the .650 hitter, may take your place," -- a threat so hollow it is laughable -- you get, "shape up, or the guy who posted an .871 OPS last season, and who is STARVING for a chance to start WILL be."
It is important to remember that Lopez and YuBet were both born and raised under the Entitled Veteran (tm) star, and have had little reason to be concerned about losing their jobs. The thing that I am liking most about the Z zags in regards to roster construction is that I view much of it as surgery on the CULTURE of losing that has been so oft complained about.
Instead of, "let's throw money at some big name free agents to make the fans happy" - I get much more of a sense of "let's go snag some cheap, short-term, and very expandable, FAs to beef up the worst bench in all of baseball, and while we're at it, we might just build some incentive for the regulars to pick up their game a bit." 'I get the sense that we're ending the Entitled Veteran Era *AND* the entitled backup era.
4
I can see how Hairston makes sense as a motivating factor for Lopez and Betancourt, but any scenario in which he starts doesn't make any sense at all.
I really don't think hes a good target in general. His '08 season was hugely luck-driven and is going to make him overpriced.