Haven't seen anybody mention this around the blog-o-sphere, but during Sunday's TV broadcast, Sims and Blowers were talking about Pineda.  Sims, Neihaus and Rizzs were at Pineda's last performance; Blowers hadn't been.

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Sims, IIRC, asked Blowers if he'd gotten a chance to see Pineda.

"No, huh-uh.  I heard he was throwing a hundred."

Sims falls out of his chair.  "Oh, man, Mike, it was siiiiiiick.  Dave and Rick and I were screaming up in the booth.  It was insane" (or some such see-you-and-raise).

Blowers says something I forget...

Sims:  "He doesn't walk people, either."

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The gist from Sims is that Pineda was throwing harder than any of the three of them had ever witnessed a pitcher throw -- remember, Neihaus broadcast the Nolan Ryan Angels in the 70's -- and that Pineda was doing it on a pitch-in, pitch-out basis.

I don't say that Pineda throws harder than Ryan.  That's humanly impossible.  But no doubt, Pineda is now getting consistently reported as Armando Benitez, Rob Nenn velocity.

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Q.  Have you seen him?

A.  A little vid.  And the 48/6 control at High Desert.  And the gnat-at-1000-yards scouting reports.  etc.   We know what his body and throwing motion looks like, have seen a few pitches.

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Q.  Will his elbow hold up?

A1.  Have you ever seen a Hardball Times study that looked like the below?

• In 2004, we took 100 19-year-olds, 50 of whom complained of elbow pain and 50 of whom did not
• Over the next five years, 27 of the 50 who complained of elbow pain had TJ during the five years, but only 18 of the 50 who didn't, had such surgery

Me neither.  So unless you have, then we're all in the same boat on Pineda:  we're just guessing.

It's not a question of sabermetrics, "no evidence suggests" or any of that malarkey, on Pineda's elbow.  We're all in the CF bleachers munching peanuts.  (Well, except maybe G-Moneyball!)

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Q.  Will his elbow hold up?

A2.  SSI will venture this much:  most young pitchers report pain coming up.  Did Brandon Morrow ever report soreness with the M's?  It's part of baseball.

We remember Roger Clemens, as a prized rook, looking like he'd never pitch a full season:  big shoulder problems right out of college.

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Q.  Does the short-arming put stress on his elbow?

A3.  It puts stress on the elbow tendons, as opposed to the ligaments.

Short-arm deliveries employ a shorter arc -- that's a physical fact.  It takes more muscle power to accelerate a ball to the same speed -- that's Newtonian physics (and you can hit drmikemarshall.com if you want a better source than me).

But I can't see any reason at all that the ligaments would get leveraged more tightly, can you?

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It sounds funny, but I (Jeff) happen to have pretty much the same throwing motion as Pineda, am a similar weight (though a few inches shorter, LOL) and throw a football by applying as much power as my arm can possibly generate.

Throw too much -- say, 200 down-and-outs as hard as I can --, and my elbow tendon starts barking.  Loudly.  We used to call this "throwing your arm out."

There have been times I wanted somebody to blow my head off.  But, a week's rest, and it's back to 100%.  It's just an inflamed muscle -- not ripping and tearing of a non*-regenerating ligament.

Anyway, don't forget that there isn't just TJ and MCL's in the pitching world.  There's also tendinitis, and just at a guess, I'd assume that this was the more likely (and less-scary) risk for Pineda.

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Needless to say I understand that I don't have an M.D.  But this is just a baseball chat, and my own experiences have been pretty close to Pineda's.  We can comment on his situation, allowing for the fact that we're just speculating.

I'm physically similar to (though inferior to!) Pineda, use the same motion, have had the same problems for 35 years.  Take it or leave it, as being better than nothing, or not.  :- )

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Part 2