Hmmm,
How much would I pay for Dunn? For me the dollars aren't the key point. I've already stated my preference for build the foundation and THEN buy the final pieces. But given the Death Star sized hole at 1B/DH in the system at the moment, I'd be willing to go 3 years, (maybe a co-option 4th) on Dunn. Anything beyond that in years, and I'm walking.
I could see a 3-year $45 million deal for Dunn. The thing that makes pegging the market in this case is the knowledge that the market SERIOUSLY overvalues batting average. The simple explanation of why Teix is getting top 5 player money, and Dunn is just a "nice FA pickup", is NOT the .899 to .911 career OPS difference -- OR the defense. The scale is skewed because of the .247 to .290 BA difference and the difference in K-rate.
It doesn't matter how many statheads laud the walk-machines, GMs and Managers simply don't like that STYLE of player, because the GMs and Managers grew up primarily on 70s baseball. He is PERCEIVED as a much riskier investment than Teix. Teix *looks* like a player who will continue posting MVP numbers for another 8 years.
But, I could also see an asking price of 60 for 3 years. I just don't know how much of a BA discount Dunn is going to suffer. While he's almost certainly worth more than Ichiro at this point, I also don't like the idea of paying the "hired" help more than you just spent to keep your "home grown" (sic) superstar. I think it hurts your developmental aji.
=== Get 'Er Dunn, Dept. ===
From Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors, quoting Jayson Stark:
1:46pm: According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Dodgers contacted Adam Dunn's agent over the holidays to express interest. If the Dodgers sign Dunn, Manny Ramirez could be in a really bad place. Other teams showing interest in Dunn: the Cubs, Nationals, Mariners, and Orioles. All five teams have surfaced in prior reports, with the Brewers also getting a mention while they were mulling a Mike Cameron trade.
Also note this December 3 squib from Ken Rosenthal, via RotoTimes:
Sources told FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal that the Braves, Mariners and Nationals are among the suitors for Adam Dunn.
Dunn became quite a bit more attractive with the Diamondbacks' decision not to offer him arbitration. Rosenthal believes the Dodgers and Angels could also become players for Dunn if they lose Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira, respectively. If the Nationals signed Dunn, it would almost surely be with the intention of using him at first base.
According the Orange County Register, the Angels have pulled off their course and will not be one of the serious bidders for Dunn.
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Interestingly, the Hardball Times article that we mentioned yesterday stated (IIRC) that Dunn would hit more home runs in Dodger Stadium than anywhere, primarily because it's an easy stadium in which to hit CF homers.
HBT charted Dunn's fly balls the last three years and calculated that Dunn would have hit 147 homers the last three years (49 per season, average), if playing 81 games a year in Dodger.
That number would drop to 35 if Dunn signed with the Mets. Dunn's homer total would have been 43 per season if playing 81 games a year in Safeco -- exactly his "average," if "average" means what he would do in the typical MLB park.
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=== Factoids, Dept. ===
Dunn is #5 on the all-time list for career AB/HR.
McGwire, Ruth, Bonds, and Thome hit HR's more frequently. Everybody else (ARod, Teddy Ballgame, Pujols, Manny, Gehrig, Mantle, Schmidt) hit them less frequently.
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Dunn led the NL in walks last season. He was in the top 5 in each of the last four seasons.
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Dunn is 21st among all active players for ... OBP.
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Dunn's career RC/27 is 7.3 -- in other words, nine Dunns would average 7.3 runs per game (including in Safeco). With average pitching (not the 2001 M's pitching, but with mediocre pitching), nine Dunns would go 116-46 in the National League.
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=== Presenting His Bill, Dept. ===
How much would Dunn cost? I'd take him over Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano, I can tell you that much. But Dr. D cheerfully admits he'd have declined the Lee and Soriano contracts along with everybody else...
It's very tough to get a read on what Dunn will cost, or how many years he'll get. You know, going in, that whatever Dunn gets, from whomever, the market rate will be deemed suicidal by the Seattle internet. :- ) Dr. D simply reminds that a FA dollar is a FA dollar, and it doesn't buy what it used to.
Zduriencik has been consistent about saying that he wants lefty power in Safeco. The Mainframe could not be happier with this Grand Theme. If it's your strategy, pay the premium to execute it. You've got to make your vision happen.
Cheers,
jemanji
Comments
Interesting amigo.
I was thinking, earlier, that maybe something like 3 x $13M even, might get him. Then some writer opined that Dunn was looking at $14-15M even in arbitration. (But presumably that was talking about the scenario in which he didn't get that last two-year deal.
Market rate for Dunn is higher than $13-14M for sure. But maybe short-term is going to be feasible.
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In principle, I couldn't agree more with the "piece mobility" concept. You're absolutely right that, in general, it's a big advantage to select the FA's after you know who the six org players are going to be.
Of course, there are few principles that work well when seen as absolutes...
Nice job with hittracker.. good point on the HRs. His BABIP (either than HRs) doesn't seem on surface to be unlucky though (17.9 LD% in '08 compared to 19.6 LD%).
Low contact rates make him a tad more risky in the NL-AL conversion (gotta figure at least a minor hit there), but at around 4 years $15mil hes a nice fit as a 1st baseman.