Long Live the Fighters!

In the 1970's, Bill James realized that it was easier to build playoff teams in pitchers' parks.  STATS later confirmed this.

James' sense of history identified a primary reason why:  in parks like Fenway, the hitters developed egos, and they started playing for themselves and their paychecks.  

He noted that every good Red Sox team from 1930 to 1980 (or something) was one that had been recently torn down and rebuilt, jettisoning its ego'ed stars for fresh blood.

You'll find that this is true historically:  after a star-studded team wins it all, it often goes on the pizza circuit that winter and has little future other than to bicker and moan about what went wrong with future seasons.

.........

There's such a thing as being hungry, too...  pitchers' parks sometimes promote that.

In the arid desert of a low run-scoring environment, the batters stay focused on execution.  "The Fremen must stay out of the city," said Paul Muad'Dib.  "It will only rob him of his soul."

Anyway.  Pitchers' parks are often places in which blossoming pennant contenders learn to play smart, tough baseball.  If other prerequisite conditions are present, of course, such as a critical-mass level of talent on the roster.

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=== PYTHAG ===

Over the Mariners' last 10 games, they are 8-2.  

The cyber-fan's question pops the mitt louder than a Michael Pineda ladder pitch:  how much of that is sustainable?  And how much is just the fact that they've gotten the dice rolls in one-run games?  How good are the Mariners, if they keep playing just like this?

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1) We don't imagine that the M's will play .800 from here to the wire, which would leave them at 119 wins.  Yes, yes, Egbert, very good; you don't sustain .800 baseball by skill alone.  Now shaddap and siddown.

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2) The Mariners are 3-1 in one-run games over that stretch ... but hey.  They have outscored their opponents 42-20.  The Pythag on that is 129 victories per season.

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3) Strength of opponent?

The Tigers were 12-10 when we smashed them three straight.  They then lost to Cleveland, but then beat the Yankees three in a row.  Detroit is solid, not great, but the M's crushed a quality team in their park.

The Red Sox were on a 9-of-11 tear when the M's went into Fenway and beat them.  The Sox had their 3-4-5 starters going, but then again the M's had Vargas (a LHP in Fenway) and Fister (ump-tormented) also.

Right after they played us, the Red Sox destroyed Jered Weaver and Dan Haren (!) 9-5 and 7-3.  Have you checked the stats on Weaver and Haren?

The Rangers had lost two series coming into Safeco, with some tough losses in close games.  But they had their Big Three of Alexi Ogando, C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis going.

Some yahoo called into the radio show tonight and said "don't mean to rain on your parade about this win streak, but the White Sox are terrible."

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=== OFFENSE ===

The M's scored 42 runs in these ten games.  The AL average so far in April/May?  4.25.

This offense has been relying FARRRRR too much on Justin Smoak.  But with Smoak, it has been an offense capable of scoring three or four "hard" runs in a game.

The offense is not going to pile up 11-0 wins, like the Angels' win Thursday.  So its stats aren't going to pile up either.  But the fact remains that the offense is comfortable playing from 1-0 or 2-1 deficits -- because it thinks the pitchers will stop the other guys right where they are.

It's cool to watch.  This team goes down one run, and it's completely relaxed.  Check it out.  When behind 1-0 or 2-1, it makes crisp little plays on defense and it goes about the business of getting a couple of runners on.

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Favorite play of the game, Brendan Ryan catching Beckett off third.  It wasn't the play, as such.  It was the cool decisiveness with which the entire infield, a lead-run knife at its throat, danced the rundown ballet.

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The bats need a lot of work.  OTOH, because it's settling for a run or two at a time, it reliably comes up with "hard" runs in close games against good pitchers.

Earl's Third Law:  if you play for one run, that's all you get.  But!  What if that's all you need?

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=== PITCHING ===

Somebody said that the rotation is 7-1, 2.50 during these ten games.  The loss was Michael Pineda's.

It isn't a big secret any more that the M's rotation can lock you down; the only secret (to us more than anybody) is whether the 4-2 scoreboard recipe can hold up.

It's a funny thing.  You get the brick walls of dazzling rotation together and it's weird how people scramble to get the shingles and siding together.

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Best case analysis, a 120 team ERA+ from here to the wire, a 95-100 OPS+, and --- > that definitely means that M's are fighting for the brass ring.  

Really this ballclub is starting to remind me of some of the old Dodgers teams I used to hate.  It's not merely hot; it's got an overwhelming rotation, and the rest of the club genuinely appears to be racing supplies to the front to help out.  

Slap me silly, the position players are out there thinking they can win the ballgame behind these starters.

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Long live the fighters,

Dr D

Comments

1
ghost's picture

They have power up and down the line-up, but the ones who are in a slump mostly look terrified to fail.  When Beckham got caught off third, he went back to the dugout and punched the railing twice, kicked at it a few times and appeared on the verge of tears for a second there.  That was the ballgame and he knows he blew it...and it's someone different every night for them.
The Mariners, on the other hand, have made a number of crippling mistakes.  In the Texas game Tuesday (Bedard pitching and getting REAMED by the ump)...Figgins ate a ball that should have been an inning-ending DP...you did not see him freaking out about how he cost his team a run...nope...the next ball hit to him (never fails...right after a tough error, you get an identical play right at your) ended the next rally (sixth inning I believe) with a great back-handed catch and throw to get a speedy Borbon.  He also had two hits and scored twice that game, if I recall correctly.
The Mariners could actually play more crisply than they have to date...they still make mistakes on defense and in the last three games, they have completely failed to get to the other team's bullpen except for 2 innings of Matt Thornton because they've done a terrible job working counts, which is not their usual MO.
They can make the low scoring close game strategy work if they clean some of that up.

2
Anonymous's picture

Yeah. The team is...evolving. It's almost as if they started the season with a hangover from the 2010 binge of putrescence. Gotta give it up to Wedge, IMHO. Nice to see a bona fide leader of men in the dugout.

3
Auto5guy's picture

Glad you brought up pythag Doc.
 
Here's a prediction from a non saber dude.  I'm loving the new patient plate approach and I see the effect it's having on the opposing teams.  In three game sets the M's are going to have a disproportionate share of 7th and 8th inning blowouts in game three as they are facing fatigued relievers and those last two guys the opposing manager never wants to use. 
It's already happened and those runs are going to skew pythag.  I wouldn't use this years pythag to measure this team.

4
ghost's picture

I doubt you'll see a large number of blowouts...the offense is built for 1-3 run innings, not 7 run innings.  But I do think you'll see this team continue to win the "time of possession" battle in every series (mostly) and get a lot of late inning wins as a result.  The high pitch counts, if they continue, should lead to the Mariners beating opponents late in games i run differential een if their total run differential is small or even negative.
As of right now, this is their run differential by inning:
12/14 (-2)
6/15 (-9)
14/17 (-3)
9/27 (-18!)
12/9 (+3)
12/15 (-3)
23/17 (+6)
17/18 (-1)
18/5 (13!)
So...they're -32 in innings 1-4 and +18 in innings 5-9.
Basically...the message here is...you need to get a 4-run lead on the Mariners early to virtually guarantee victory...otherwise they will have a way of coming back on your bullpen.

5
ghost's picture

7th inning should be 23/16 (+7) for a total differential of -13 and a total innings 5-9 differnetial of +19.
If you beat our SP early...you'll probably win...if it's close or we beat your SP early...you're almost certain to lose against us.  That's a tough team to face even if it's not a playoff team.  There's no doubt we're going to be a stressful opponent for a lot of clubs this year.

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