LoMo's Rampage
2015's strange mix of broccoli and syrup

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If you just joined us, SABRMatt had access to robust info when he ran the Yankee$.  In particular, he worked a lot with batted ball velocity.  Whereas you and I, the public, are just starting to get some "sampled" data, MLB orgs have been working with it routinely for some time.

So especially on this topic we're glad that Matty is willing to chip in.  :- )

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A TV blurb had pointed out that LoMo is #6 in all the land, NL and AL, in velocity off the bat "more than 40 balls in play."  SABRMatt rightly admired this figure.  Dr. D agreed, adding the asterisk that this doesn't quite mean LoMo hits the ball harder than  all but five guys.

Matt, also a math major, then smilingly tossed out a process note:

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Actually, Doc, it has been found that batted ball velocity is more stable than normal, statistically. Morrison isn't going to keep hitting it at 94.6 mph because no one in baseball his that hard for a whole year, but it takes 50 batted balls to get the same expected regression factor that occurs with ops at 400 pa. That is to say. ..the R squared on the correlation between two consecutive samples for a batter is 0.5 at 50 batted balls and at 400 PA the R squared is also 0.5 for OPS. - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/comment/159428#comment-159428

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Ya you betcha.  And that's what you would expect.

It might take six rounds to get a decent idea of Moe's golf scores, but it might only take six shots to get an idea of what his velocity is off the tee.  I had wondered what that BIP "sample" was for velocity, so thanks for giving the info! 

Now, understand this going in.  Dr. D thinks Logan Morrison is definitely hitting the ball super hard right now.  But first let's tick off the qualifiers on our fingers:

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On the #6 Ranking

Speaking more to the industry than to Matty ... so the R-squared being 0.5 at 50 batted balls ... yes that compares to our confidence in AVG or OPS at 400 at-bats.  But most sabermetricians (you certainly excepted) are happy about correlations MUCH lower than I prefer.  I've seen no end of articles that thump their chests about PECOTA, or whatever, though their correlations be 0.30 to 0.35 ...

Sabes are all smiles when they get an =CORR of 0.30 to 0.50 but frown sternly when a pitching coach gives his favorite axiom gleaned from 40 years' service.

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Also, the M's info dept. cherrypicked '40-plus batted balls' so how many guys were higher than LoMo with 30-39 batted balls in the database?  ;- )  We all know how easy it is, early in the season, to say 'J.A. Happ has the #7 control ratio in the league, 38 or more innings pitched!' since Happ has thrown 38 innings.  There might be ten more guys with 35 IP who are better than him, but ...

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Also, I don't know how it factors in, whether a hitter is squaring the ball up over the 'sample' size.  A batter might have a 1.0 flyball ratio one year, and a 1.4 flyball ratio the next year.  How would that affect his MEASURED velocity off the bat, if he were topping the ball, or getting under it, or on a hot streak, or?

Like James says, the vast majority of measurements, you need more than 162 games to get a grip on them.  This is in part because players are up and down.  ... if LoMo were a hitting machine, sure.  40 balls in play would be fine.  But he's a human bean.

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Also, LoMo has been using the BoomStick how long?  Only about 1/3 of the time over the "sample."

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Also, could you see Logan Morrison entered into an HR derby?  I couldn't.

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But Waitaminnit

All that said, LoMo weighs 240 lbs. and he can really let that bathead fly.  No questions about that.  There have been THREE (3) times, in the last week, when Morrison hit the ball so hard that a deep-lying shortstop muffed the play.  With a big frightened grimace on his face and his eyes closed.

And let's not get carried away with the statistical quibbles.  Dr. D smiles about the idea that he's sitting #6 in baseball on MPH, well ... he might 'really' have been #13 or #19 but so what?  The song remains the same.  We'll take the 18th-hardest hitter in baseball.

These velocity stats ARE thought-provoking.  They're enough to make you re-think the guy.  Add to that the April 29-current rampage and I'm feeling pretty stupid about bailing on him early.  LoMo's stats from April 29 to date:

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G AB AVG OBP SLG BABIP BB K HR
13 48 .375 .460 .800 (.350) 8 6 5
                 

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Where's That Leave Us?

If you were to write in to Bill James and ask about LoMo's future ... well, you'd be asking somebody who wasn't a Seattle Mariner fan, for one thing.  And we can tell you what he'd say:  He'd say that, objectively speaking, you can't predict what Logan Morrison is going to do from here.

Players go up, players go down.  They leap plateaus and they crash.  James has learned to rarely predict HR races or pennant races.  

You and I suck in a deep breath every time Ackley or Miller or LoMo have a terrible month and we jump out of our seats every time they have a great month.  And there's nuttin' wrong with that.  Being super close to the situation gives a different view of the situation - not better or worse, just different.

That's why we said 'We don't care any more IF Dustin Ackley gets good or if he doesn't.  Let's swap him out.'  Objectively speaking, there's still no way to predict him.  That's true of all these kids.

Where are we with respect to Logan Morrison and his 95 MPH 'average' velocity?  The switch to the Boomstick, and the new intel about his 95 MPH ... he's put himself solidly back into the 110-115 OPS+ first baseman category.  In our minds, that is!  It turns out that, in reality, he had never left the arena.

But what are the chances of a big breakthrough, 30 homers, a leap to the 125 OPS+ club?  Well,

  • That's what it looked like when he was 22-23 years old, that he'd hit 30 homers a year, and
  • We've all seen our share of Carlos Penas who became All-Stars at 27-29 years old.  

There's no reason not to hold out a 20% hope that LoMo got a big leap left in him.  We're fans.  There's a solid basis for optimism on LoMo, if that's where you want to be on him.

Enjoy,

Dr D

 

 

 

 

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Comments

1

There's much to like in this Logan Morrison.  For example he's been pretty dang impressive with the glove as well. 
At 120 pts of OPS he's better than your average bear and he kicks the snot out of the last firstbaseman we had old whatever-his-name-was. 
He was a steal for a MOR type reliever. 
He's nice.  I hope he keeps it up. 

2

Maybe he is one of those 26-year-olds with experience breakouts that has been masked/delayed partially by subpar health until now. I like Carter Capps but LoMo is a really interesting piece. And now he knows the American League well.

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