1
So because Kelly has THREE great (or very effective) pitches he's not a starter?
With such reasoning, Arnold might say that if he had FOUR great (or very effective) pitches he should be in AAA.
Linkage, 3.21.10 b
=== TNT ===
Larry LaRue hits 94 with a game recap that not only info-tains, but also points out a dynamic streak to this year's roster.
For some reason, it hadn't quite hit me that the 2010 Mariners fulfill the leadoff hitter / aces-full rotation synergy used by the Herzog Cards in the 1980's...
Thusly in the first:
- Ichiro singles. (This actually won't be as uncommon as you might think.)
- Figgins grounds a ball inside the line... "and those two went into full sprint mode."
- With 0 outs, the M's manufactured (?) the second run. M's 2, Angels 0.
- As soon as the SP then knocked out a 1-2-3 inning, the game was ... practically over. (Okay, it wasn't, but still.)
It reminds me of Reggie Jackson reminiscing about when the early '70's Oaklands owned baseball.
"In the first inning, Bert Campaneris would walk, and steal second. North would ground one to the right side. Joe Rudi would fly out to CF, and we'd be up 1-0.
"We'd have Catfish going that day, and Rollie out in the bullpen twirling that mustache. We'd have the other team on the ropes, and we wouldn't have a hit yet."
..............
Leadoff hitters go well with ace starting pitchers and #1 ERA's. Ichiro and Figgins get you a run, or two runs, first inning ... and Felix - Lee - Bedard are on the mound, you're going to feel like the game is yours before the National Anthem stops echoing.
.
=== HeraldNet ===
No sooner does SSI argue that Kelley, with his unique fastball, would be fine as a 2-pitch starter, than Kirby Arnold lays out a quick reply that Kelley's not a 2-pitch starter. No way no how. His changeup is better than his slider according to, ahem, Shawn Kelley.
Threw it "a lot" in his 2.0 ip, 4k, 0h, 0r outing the other day. "I got a lot of swings and misses with it, and I'm going to keep using it."
If Shawn Kelley had a 60 changeup, plus on the scouting scale, I'd take him among the top 20 pitchers in an AL-only draft. That's all I'd need to know, that his change can miss bats, and my number one fantasy advice of the year is GET SHAWN KELLEY.
Hey. The Mariners added a reliever this offseason, Brandon League. You've got League, Lowe, and Aardsma. Now you've got Kao-Ken too. It's not like you're in tatters down there.
..............
The Mariners are "stretching Kelley out" and my guess is that they'll stretch him out as a reliever, during April, and keep the SP option in their hip pocket.
Way too much of a half-hearted approach. Shawn Kelley is a Grade A, blue chip starting pitching prospect, the best starting pitching prospect in your organization. You going to move Phillippe Aumont to the bullpen? Oh, wait...
I wish to the SKYboxes they'd give this kid three or four starts. He would either be (1) good, or (2) a sensation. Either would be better than what they got.
What's wrong with three or four starts, guys? And go back if he's not Jeremy Guthrie? What's the downside? You could have a star here. Just flip the card over and see what it is.
Cheers,
Jeff
Comments
2
c-points.
At this point, I'm wondering what the hidden reason is, for all this resistance.
Show me a starting pitcher who can throw 93 mph with plus-plus command and I'll show you a good starting pitcher. Find an exception. I dare youse.
3
2009 - Kelly through 46 innings against MLB hitters. Oh, wait. He's thrown a grand TOTAL of 46 innings against MLB hitters for his career.
What's the standard rule of "don't risk the arm" these day? IIRC, it's don't add more than 30 innings.
Hey. You want to make him a long reliever, let him throw 2-3 innings each week - I say fine. Go ahead and follow the Santana/Liriano path to greatness that Minnesota patented.
Me? I think it is WAAAAAAAY too late in the game to begin pointing toward Kelley becoming an SP in 2010. And frankly, if you're REALLY hyped on the idea - then the smart baseball move would be to send him to Tacoma for AT LEAST 1/2 a season.
Starting is DIFFERENT than relieving. There's a lot more to be learned about that difference than simply saying "don't wear yourself out in the first."
I think what kills me about this push for Kelley in the rotation is you'd think somebody would still remember what a wonderfully beautiful transition from bullpen to rotation Morrow had. How many people spewed tomes onto the web about the horrible, horrible, horrible job that Bavasi, et al, did in mismanaging the development of Morrow?
What? Doing the exact same thing - but with a different GM makes it a good idea?!?
To me? The Kelley/rotation argument is a perfect example of the difficulties in balancing immediate versus future gain. From where I sit, if you REALLY believe in Kelley for the rotation, then you have to allow the greatest chance of success for that move - which means - he heads to Tacoma for some number of months - likely with very low pitch-count limits to keep his innings down. And "maybe" if everything breaks just right, you think about bringing him up in August. (More likely, you shut him down before his innings count goes critical red).
In any case, the likely outcome of making such a move is that you're giving a REAL strong indication of punting 2010 to play for the future.
There are TWO questions to ask, not one. The first is, "Can Kelley become a decent SP?" The second is, "Can Kelly become a decent SP *THIS YEAR*?"
4
I suggested several weeks ago that the mariners are actually in really good shape at the bottom of the rotation because they have a lot of players who can pitch at the major league level. At the bottom of the rotation depth is more important than how objectively good your fourth or fifth best pitcher is going in to the season. My take on the Kelley situation is that he probably will get a few starts this year, and that given that most teams ought to plan on using 7-8 starters over the course of the year, it really doesn't matter if we officially call him a "starter" today, rather than a long reliever. Here are a few fangraphs articles that make the point well I think.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fifth-starters-dont-existhttp:/...
I've become convinced by these and other articles that is simply a mistake to fixate on the starting 5. What you really want is 7-8 pitchers who you feel comfortable giving the ball to in the first inning at the major league level.
5
Your paradigm is dead on, Uncle Ted.
The problem is...the Mariners have 2 starters I'm comfortable handing the ball to in the first inning adn about 7 others I'm not all that comfortable with for various reasons (injury likelihood, mushy stuff, in-and-out command, lack of intelligence on the mound, take your pick)
Depth is only good if it's MLB quality depth...the Mariners have lots of depth, but it's all mediocre to dreadful.
6
Okay ... I have no idea how one quantifies "plus-plus" command. However, I would say it is dangerous to create definitions of "absolute" winners while ignoring major chunks of data.
93-FB and plus-plus control ... these are absolutely positive traits for any pitcher.
I could just as easily note that there is not one pitcher who succeeds over time with a 1.8 HR/9 rate.
Do Matt Garza and Brad Penny meet the criteria? I dunno. But, I do get a sense when looking at the 2009 pitchers sorted by FB velocity that actual pitching value and reliability seems to rise as the % of FBs thrown drops. As a general guideline, I'd rather have the guys throwing 60% FBs than those throwing 70%. (Which begs the question of whether it is actually the FB or the 2nd and 3rd pitches which actually makes the dominant pitchers dominant. Just food for thought.
7
Snell is getting absolutely pummelled today, on top of everything else (Bedard delayed, Vargas weak last time, RRS struggling).
As much as I like the Kelley-to-SP notion, I agree with Sandy that it's a multi-year enterprise, not a 2010 fix.
And, we have to point out:
Z picked Snell
Z picked Vargas
Z picked French
Z picked Olson
These were the guys Z sought out to bolster the back of the rotation. Nothing we've seen so far would make me think that they'd pass over a whole slew of guys they brought in, to make room for a guy that Bavasi drafted as a reliever.
8
Check his very last comment in this article.
Another way to quantify plus-plus command is with K/BB ratio. K's, like Aardsma's, are one thing. Low BB's, like Washburn's, are another. But a 4:1 K/BB means you are deploying your stuff with extreme precision relative to your talent.
You can also simply watch Kelley pitch, but admittedly, that's not quantified. :- )
................
Come on, guys. If Shawn Kelley's 1.8 homers were across 300 innings instead of 45, that would be one thing.
His homer rate in the minors was 0.4. You guys bring up his "gopheritis" again and again as if it were something that actually existed.
9
So, supposing you had your choice, Ted, which would you take:
4 Washburn 5 WashburnB 6 Olson 7 OlsonB 8 OlsonC
or what the Mariners actually have right now, with Lee out?
Would you give up quality at the 4-5 slots to gain quality at the 6-8 slots?
10
Get 100 people to vote with you.
It doesn't change the fact that Shawn Kelley would go 5-2 in his first 10 starts.
;- )
Kelley needs *no* adjustment before starting. None whatsoEVer. If the Mariners try it, you'll see.
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I dunno Doc. I am pretty good at taking tests, but this question is a tough one! :)
Btw, I will support you on taking a chance that we can get a SP out of a RP. What do we have to lose?
God bless, michael
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Also, not to nitpick, but I will. Your timestamp on replies is about 4 hours later than the actual time (even here in Philly).
me
13
Choices:
(A) Felix, Lee, Snell, RRS, Fister/Vargas with Bedard to replace the weakest link. "Original" plan
(B) Felix, Lee, Snell, Fister/Vargas, RRS (minimize starts until stamina is built up) with Bedard to replace the weakest link. "RRS will eventually rock" plan
(C) Felix, Lee, Washburn, Snell/Fister/Vargas/RRS (pick 2) with Bedard to replace the weakest link. "Spend $ to cover your RRiSk" plan
(D) Felix, Lee, Kelley, Snell/Fister/Vargas/RRS (pick 2) with Bedard to replace the weakest link. "RP's are easier to replace" plan
(E) Felix, Lee, ____, ____, _____ with Bedard to replace the weakest link. "Unsuspected trade or callup" plan...fill in the blanks
me
14
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-good-is-your-4-starter/
Here's a little more perspective on just how bad 4th and 5th starter clusters (sets of 32 starts working down the rotation from best pitcher to worst, often composed of innings from multiple pitchers). In 2006 (the year this article was written) the league average ERA for the 5th starter cluster was over 6. For the 4th it was over 5.
So, if you have 4-5 guys (Snell, Fister, Vargas, French, Kelley?, someone else?) who you can say with a straight face give you a good shot at a sub 5 FIP, you're sitting in a pretty good position.
In general, I'd discount the importance of each pitcher after 5 since you may get lucky and only use 5 starters (like the 2003 Mariners), but 6-8 are still likely to be pretty darn important. So, in answer to your question, I don' t know how the math works out, but yes, there is a good chance I'd rather have what the Mariners actually have right now. If someone else wants to calculate expected innings from the 4-8 spots and give doc an answer, I'd be curious how it turns out.
15
8.1 - IP; 3-HR allowed.
Does this prove anything? Absolutely not.
I'm not saying his 1.8 HR/9 is what he is GOING TO BE. I am saying, that is undisputably what he has done in his 46 MLB innings.
Me? I don't know what to make of Kelley just yet. Do I love his K/BB numbers? Absolutely. Do I think that is *ALL* one needs to be a dominant pitcher in the majors? Absolutely not.
I'd likely be less concerned with his HR rate if his HRs were a little MORE bunched up, (a couple of really bad outings). As a reliever, splits are almost completely worthless, I understand. But, in the 4 months he wasn't hurt, (ignore the 2.2 innings in May), he allowed 2 HRs in EVERY month, (and 3 in July).
Like Felix two years back, the data suggests that he is over-challenging.
If that's the case, it's fixable -- but that doesn't mean he's not going to have problems until he does get the issue fixed.
==========
And yes - in his 80 minor league innings, he has a HR/9 of 0.4. He fanned 10 and walked 3 for his minors career. So, yes, it's a bit disconcerting that he allowed 2 HRs for the entire 2007 season, while allowing 2 HRs in each full month he's pitched in the majors.
I dunno what Kelley will become. But I do know that no major league hitter has seen more more than 4 times thus far. (Actually, 8 hitters have 4 PAs against him). As near as I can tell, the most batters he's ever faced in a single game, (including the minors), was 10 (a single time).
But, if you think a guy who has thrown 130 total innings over the past three years combined, (and spent time on the DL), and has never faced more than 10 pro hitters in a game is going to become a starter w/o a problem ... then I think we're waaay too far apart to find common ground.
His 3.42 K/BB ratio from the minors with the 0.4 HR rate in his 80 relief innings is indeed intriguing to me.
How would you feel about a guy with a 3.69 K/BB ratio in the minors, as a starter, over 684 innings - with a 0.6 HR/9 rate? Seattle has one of those, too. His name is Ian Snell.
16
Kelley's FB rate last year was really high.
I don't see why Kelley would profile as a guy with high HR/FB rate, but if he continues to have a high FB% he'll have an above-average HR rate.
Honestly, I'd like to try Kelley in the rotation. The upside outweighs the risk in this scenario IMO. We need somebody in the rotation with some potential with Felix + 4 scrubs early in the year. If Bedard and RRS come back healthy or if it doesn't work out, then he can slide back.
17
considered a string of posts on it when I ran into it earlier this winter.
For sure, fans expect wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much of their rotation slots. You'll see a guy like, say, Edwin Jackson, and people will call him a #3-4 on a good team.
Have argued this for years: fans think Randy Johnson is an "ace," Erik Bedard is a #2, John Lackey a #3 and if you want a good rotation, you want at least a Joel Pineiro type in your 4-5 slots ...
Many teams will have catastrophes in their #5 starter slots, but we'd probably agree that the Angels won't, and that the M's with their offense can't afford the typical #4-5 problems...