The last thirty #20-22 picks

In 2008, the players drafted in the #20-22 slots overall, were:

[Josh Fields]

Ryan Perry

Reese Havens

..................

In 2007, those three players were:

Chris Withrow

J.P. Arencibia

Tim Alderson

.................

In 2006, you had:

Chris Parmalee

Ian Kennedy

Colton Willems

.....................

In 2005, it was:

Mark Pawelek

Cliff Pennington

Aaron Thompson

Certainly, Dr. D knows that the book isn't closed on these players.  But did YOU know that, if you drafted players like this with the 2009 #22 pick, that four years later you'd still be cooling your heels, waiting for them?  Pennington was a college SS. 

If your idea is to grab several first-rounders and get help for 2010, 2011, think again ... unless it's Josh Fields you're talking about.  THAT is the #20 overall who can help your ballclub quickly.  :- )

..........................

OK, going back five years to 2004, now, do we start finding some impact players jelling?

Trevor Plouffe

Gregory Golson

Glen Perkins

Perkins started 26 games for the Twins last year, performing about like Jarrod Washburn or so (92 ERA+, low K's, low BB's left-handed).

So we went all the way down this list, most the players went "PLOUFFE" and left an acrid aroma in our draft room, but we did finally hit ... Jarrod Washburn.  I can barely contain my urge to throw Josh Fields back into the pool for another go.

...........................

In 2003, we had:

Chad Cordero

Matthew Moses

David Aardsma

WHOOAAAAA!   After 18 Plouffes ;- ) we hit an impact player and he was ... a college closer.  :- )  LOLOL!

Moses parted a bunch of highway stripes along lonely minor-league highways, but Aardsma made the majors.  I think I've heard of him.  Did the M's give up a 1st-rounder to acquire him?  Anybody for dealing a #20 overall to acquire David Aardsma?

............................

In 2002:

Denard Span

Bobby Brownley

Jeremy Guthrie

And at player #22, we hit somebody we would trade a 1st-rounder for (or would we?).

If you're complaining that Guthrie is a nice 1st-rounder, not so fast.  He'd have been out of your org long before he figured out how to pitch.  You'd have burned a #22 on him, and he'd have given you zero.  Then he'd have gone and Carlos Guillened you later.

Takes draft picks a loooooonnnnngggggg time to get here, if they ever do.

............................

In 2001:

Brad Sowers

Brad Hennessey

Jason Bulger

Sowers made the bigs, but has a career ERA+ of 88 and a strikeout rate of 4.  You'd rather have Ryan Franklin or Cha Seung Baek -- or anybody off the waiver wire, like David Aardsma or somebody.  You certainly wouldn't want to spend a 1st-rounder on him.

Hennessy has a career ERA+ of 93, and a K/BB of 192/147.  He may be figuring it out, though:  last year his ERA was down to 7.81.

Bulger is 30 now, with a career ERA of 6.35 in a handful of ML innings.

..............................

In 2000:

Chris Bootcheck - 30 years old, career ERA 6.04, 134 innings

Boof Bonser - After 6.5 minors seasons and 3 ML seasons, has ERA+ of 84.  Will be good eventually, but it didn't help the '00's-decade Twins

Phil Dumatrait - Turning 27, has career ERA of 7.08 in majors

..............................

In 1999:

Vince Faison

Larry Bigbie

Matt Ginter

..............................

So you offer me a probable ML impact reliever with the #20 or #22 overall.  Do I take it?  I dunno, do I look like I've recently lost my mind to you?

Cheers,

Dr D

 

Comments

1
Sandy - Raleigh's picture

Great article Doc.
To make informed decisions, one has to have some concept of what the landscape REALLY looks like.
(One part of the getting the supplemental pick that everyone overlooks -- every pick AFTER that pick moves down one slot for the rest of the draft).
The diff between 54 and 55 or 109 and 110 may be nominal. But it's nominal for a BUNCH of rounds. By signing Fields, the Ms improved every other pick in the 2009 draft by one slot.

2
glmuskie's picture

------So we went all the way down this list, most the players went “PLOUFFE” and left an acrid aroma in our draft room-----
LOLOL!
Man, that was the best read I've had in a while. Thanks!

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