I'm Goin' off the Raaaailllllls on a Crazy Traaaaiiiiin

Since cyber-Seattle is an open office floor, and the cubicles have 4-foot walls, we'll give a friendly response to a "Griffey Post" aimed at refuting the idea that Jr. would make any sense in Seattle for 1-2 years. For more detailed rationale, see our 5-part series on it.

Ken Griffey Jr. would be best put to use as part of a platoon.

Almost certainly yes. While the guy could hit southpaws at his peak, over the past five years (in hitter-friendly environments) he's hit .291/.380/.536 against righties and .227/.304/.428 against lefties. With his abilities eroding, it's gotten to the point at which, when facing a lefty, Griffey turns into a pretty easy out. There's no reason for anyone to promise him a full-time role.

This was actually placed 3rd in a long bullet list of "refutations" of pro-Junior reasoning.

Here's where this crazy train runs off the rails. The entire idea of bringing Junior in, is that if you platoon him (or semi-platoon him) you are bringing in a cheap .290/.380/.535 hitter ...

And the "refutation" of that is .... "Yeah, he's better as a platoon player. Now let's get on to the reasons he's not very good if you don't!"

This driveby quickie "nod" at the platoon scenario is precisely where the disconnect between LL and D-O-V occurs. From this point on, we are driving on different highways. For us to have any meaningful ping-pong game here, we've got to be talking about the same acquisition.

...............

Junior HAS been hitting righties well -- as you would expect an inner-circle HOF'er like him to do at 39.

NOW, AFTER you resolve the fact that Junior has been hitting righties well, THEN you've got the considerations that Griffey might get a second wind in view of the fact that he:

(a) Is a power lefty in Safeco,

(b) Might well be rejuvenated by the love,

(c) Might well be healthier in a DH/1b/lf scenario, as Edgar was,

(d) etc.

But none of those things have to happen for you to assess Griffey as effective vs RHP. The last three years, he has hit .280/.375/.500 vs righties. The other Mariners, um, weren't.

.........

The rest of the "refutations" seem directed more to the P-I board, but let's just keep the ping-pong rally going :- )

..............

Normally I wouldn't quote another author verbatim -- just excerpt maybe 50-100 total words. But Jeff's arguments are so concise and powerful that it's hard to find anything to remove.

In the spirit of college debate:

Ken Griffey Jr. is a good player -- Demonstrably untrue. According to Fangraphs' data, since 2002, Griffey has averaged 0.75 WAR per season, and since 2006 has been a replacement-level player. Whatever pluses he's had at the plate have been completely and utterly undone by his ineptitude in the field. Ken Griffey Jr., as of the present day, is an absolutely awful all-around Major League baseball player.

Would agree that, in fulltime play as a center fielder (which Junior was during that time), Griffey is hurting the club with his defense.

That it is "demonstrably untrue" that Griffey would be a "good player" as a 1B/DH/fillin OF, skipping the tough AB's vs lefties, depends on semantics. Is Russ Branyan going to be demonstrably a bad player?

.

Ken Griffey Jr. is a good hitter.

Now you're doing a little better, but still, not really. Using Fangraphs again, you're looking at an average of +10 runs/season since 2002 and +6 runs/season since 2006. He's been all right, but he turned 39 in November, and is coming off arguably the worst offensive season of his 20 year career...

Well, you're taking an average, for one thing. Griff's last healthy year -- 2007 -- his overall was .277/.372/.496. That's a whale of a good hitter, and that includes vs LHP.

And, this again leaves us in the dark as to whether Griff is "a good hitter" after we cut back the AB's vs LHP.

..............

You are talking about bringing a power lefty into Safeco. Again, it's not that Safeco inflates LH's stats. It's that it reduces LH's stats by MUCH LESS than it reduces RH's stats. Safeco turbocharges lefties' effectiveness, period. You're talking about INCREASING Griffey's relative effectiveness with the park.

.............

Again: if Ken Griffey Jr. wants to play center field every day, I'm not bringing him back, no matter how many 12-year-olds he makes happy.

If and only if:

1) Ken Griffey Jr. is willing to be a starting DH/1B and 4th OF, and

2) Give up a LOT of his AB's vs LHP, and

3) Dunn (or comparable) is not in the cards,

Then I'm bringing Griffey back. Primarily because he'd help the club as a lefty RBI man, and secondly because it would make the season fun.

Is Junior willing to do that? Not if somebody else offers him more. But that may not be the case.

Good stuff as always from the LL crew,

Jeff C

Comments

1

Agreed on pretty much all coutns, Doc.
Platoon Griffey and Morse or Johjima at the DH position...platoon Branyan and Morse or Shelton at first, platoon Clement and Johjima behind the plate, let Endy Chavez steal some ABs from Wlad against righties with devastating breaking pitches and your offense will pretty solid, believe it or not. The bench would play very "tightly"...you wouldn't have a lot of wiggle room on nights when you were facing a lefty.
Vs. RHP
RF) Ichiro (L)
CF) Gutierrez (R) or LF) Chavez (L)
DH) Griffey (L)
3B) Beltre (R)
1B) Branyan (L)
2B) Lopez (R)
C) Clement (L)
LF) Balentien (R) or CF) Gutierrez (R)
SS) Betancourt (R)
you've got either Wlad or Chavez on the bench along with Johjima, Morse/Shelton, and Corona
vs LHP
RF) Ichiro (L)
CF) Gutierrez (R)
3B) Beltre (R)
2B) Lopez (R)
1B) Shelton (R) or DH) Morse (R) (depending on which one you keep)
LF) Balentien (R)
C) Johjima (R)
DH) or 1B) Griffey or Branyan or Clement
SS) Betancourt (R)
There's a roation implied above where Branyan and Griffey and Clement all get SOME PAs against lefties but none of them get all of them. Call it the three-way platoon. If you decide you'd rather have Morse than Shelton for performance reasons, you'll be talking about giving 1B playing time to either Morse (eehhh) or Branyan against lefties or Clement (iffy) but we're dealing with a bad team here...there are going to be problems.
Point is...although there are drawbacks to the uber-platoon team from hades, if managed well, it keeps guys rested and maximizes the talents of the aging lefties.

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