If We Knew Then What We Know Now
A dose of real life for yer?

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What we knew now, that we didn't know then.  Well, what you know now that you didn't know then, of course.  The Mainframe is a little harder to wonk out than the rest of the world, he says modestly.

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Felix is primed for another HOF season.  This will be the 10th consecutive year in which he makes 30+ starts and the 7th season in a row for him as the leading Cy Young candidate.  There are about 50 starters in baseball history who have thrown 4,000 innings give or take.  Greg Maddux ripped off 18 really star seasons in a row.  Not everybody gets hurt.

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The M's aren't going to go 161-and-1.  They've already maxed out at 160-2.

After three games last year, the Angels were 0-3 and went on to start 11-13.  They won 98.  The Orioles started 1-4 and went to 26-27.  They won 96.  You can just imagine how many examples could be listed here.

You and I have just stumbled out of Seahawk season.  It may seem like every weekend is a pivot point, but in baseball it ain't.  You get your 4-5 starters overmatching the 4-5 starters on other clubs, you let the percentages work in your favor over a schedule literally 10x longer than in the NFL.

The M's and Angels just went through three full-throated street fights, complete with head butts knee strikes elbow blocks and all the trimmings.  Dr. D thoroughly enjoyed the smackdowns.

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The demises of C.J. Wilson (and Jered Weaver) are thoroughly exaggerated.  As is that of the Angels in general.

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The M's have a whale of a team, and running next to them is a club that just won 98 games.  Hey, what would the 2012-13 Seahawks have been without San Francisco.  Let's play nineteen.

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The Mariner lineup is not going to score 1,000 runs.  It was never going to.  Nelson Cruz is a 100-RBI man, not Miguel Cabrera.  Miller and Zunino and Ackley are talented young hitters, not certified 120-OPS Anaheim Angels.  Seth Smith is a nice little value saber bat, not Andrew McCutchen.

We won't score 1,000.  What we do need to do, is to deliver the "hard RBI" in a 2-2 pitcher's duel.  The M's lineup is showing itself well capable of that!  How many times did the M's square the ball up in clutch situations?  How many no-doubt homers did they hit, and how many deep flies? ... enough so that we all feel gutpunched, tell ya that.

The Angels threw blizzards of quality pitches.  Under those circumstances, you're going to need a few balls to fall in.  This time, the balls didn't fall in.  That's all.

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James Paxton is ramping up quicker than SSI thought he would.  First time through, Paxton:

  • Started the game 2-0 on Calhoun, threw him a fastball, and got a lineout
  • Fell behind Trout 1-0, threw a fastball, and got a fly out
  • Scuffled to 2-2 on Pujols, threw a fastball, and got an easy grounder to Miller
  • Blew away Freese on three pitches, since he threw a curve for a strike that AB
  • Retired Cron easily, since he threw a curve for a strike that AB
  • Fell behind Aybar 1-0, threw a fastball, and got a groundout
  • Fell behind Ianetta 2-0, threw two "tipped off" fastballs, and got him out anyway (2-0 is the new 0-2)
  • Fell behind Cowgill 2-0, threw two predictable fastballs, and got a weak pop the other way to Cano
  • Walked Giovatella (because he attempted two curves)
  • Blew away Calhoun, since he got a curve over with two strikes

K-Pax attempted only 11 curves, since he was spiking half in the dirt and throwing the other half 8 feet in the air.  So what happened?  Did the Angels sit dead-red and blast him like they did Iwakuma in the first two innings?  No, against a great lineup he ran a 6 4 2 2 1 5 line and looked like a rookie Clayton Kershaw on an off day.

... Hey, here's something we know now that we didn't know then.  James Paxton's changeup was a "broken" pitch.  Can't imagine why he didn't throw it more.  Made his curve look like a joke.

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Against a dangerous lineup, Hisashi Iwakuma has to be sharp.  Fill in your own cliche.  It wasn't the first time WBC-san ever lost a game; he only wins about 2 games per loss.  Russell Wilson throws incomplete passes, NBA players miss free throws, and Hisashi Iwakuma loses games.

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Carson Smith's slider looks like Trevor Hoffman's changeup.  The mook can triple up on it, quadruple up on it, quintuple up on it -- same thing happens every time.  The batter flinches for a fastball, checks his swing, and watches the slider float by.  It's the herky-jerky violent delivery, the CRAZY arm action and the spin.  From the CF camera (!!) you even think it's a fastball until it's halfway there.

I don't know where Carson Smith is going with this.  But it will be interesting to find out.

Last time that SSI saw a power yo-yo pitch of this hilarity ...  :: pedroia commercial chintap hmmm ::  Tom Gordon?  Francisco Rodriguez?   Yeah, probably K-Rod.

Not saying that Carson Smith will run a lifetime ERA of 0.00.  Not saying he's not, either.

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Suddenly the 2015 bullpen looks considerably improved.  Tyler Olson vs Joe Beimel?  That's a little bit like Seth Smith vs Chris Denorfia... oh, wait.

As of right now, McClendon is going to use Carson Smith in high-leverage.  This means, in turn, that Yoervis Medina should pitch with ample rest (SSI's Key to the Funky Medina).  Three games on, Dr. D lets go of the chicken bar in the bullpen.

The 2015 Mariners look every blinkin' inch as tough as Dr. D had them pictured.  No, they look tougher.

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Taijuan tonight,

Jeff

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