If Bedard Were Fragile, How Would You Know?

Enri with a fair question in the 14-In-A-Row comments:

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=== Q ===

Generally, I'm entirely with you, Doc, on the value of Erikkkk. I still fantasize about Felix-Erik winning postseason series for us this year.

But in all fairness, isn't it time for you to own up to the fact that Bedard is more fragile than average. Your long time contention that he pitches if it matters, and babies himself only if the season is lost, seems to have been disproven by the timing of his latest trip to the DL.

How would you know you were wrong on Bedard's health forecast?

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=== A ===

The way I would know I was wrong would be this:

If a noted orthopedic surgeon ran a series of non-invasive tests and pronounced that Bedard's arm was showing significant wear-and-tear.

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=== Q Back Atcha ===

How would we know if you were worrying too much?  ;- )   Might I propose, the best self-check would be:  if a 21st-century surgeon examined his arm and pronounced him fit?

Present company excepted -- we're not getting on Enri, who was the only guy to phrase his concerns in a scientific paradigm --

Cyber-Seattle seems to put little value or confidence in the input of the experts on the matter.   When it comes to Richie Sexson's shoulder, or Erik Bedard's arm, or Jeff Clement's knees, here's what we talk about:

1) What kind of injury was it and do we suspect that injury heals easily

2) Has the athlete shown us 100 straight full-power games since the injury

3) What happened to other athletes, in 1992, who had injuries to the same parts of their bodies

4) Anything other than Dr. Lewis Yocum's findings

..................

I'm not trying to be cute here.  :- ) I think the right way to forecast health is to ask the doctors, not the sabermetricians.  The doctors stand in examination rooms with THAT VERY PATIENT and examine HIS VERY TISSUES. 

We sabermetricians sit behind our monitors and review outcomes for small groups of men we've never met.

I'll guarantee you that a real doctor would WITHHOLD OPINION on any athlete that he had not examined. 

..................

Do you remember the flame war over the health of Richie Sexson's shoulder?  Dr. D could convince exactly NOBODY to listen to the doctors and the Mariners, who put Sexson's contract 100% contingent on a perfect bill of health from the doctors.   No offense -- you know we're TIC :- ) -- but AFTER the physical, the entire realm of the alphanumeric knights were like "If he comes down to ST and belts the ball around, we'll feel a little better about maybe his lasting a year."

ML franchises play with big money, folks.  And this is the 21st century.  Before a guy like Sexson or Bedard gets the big bucks, the surgeons know EXACTLY what is inside his skin.

No, the result of a 5-hour physical is not a guarantee.  But it's better than three sentences in a Shandler Forecaster.

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=== Babying Himself in 2009 ===

Another fair question:  "Dr. D predicted that Bedard would suck it up better, if the games mattered more.  Why then the DL this year?"

Answer:  Bedard HAS sucked it up in 2009.  He just had surgery on his shoulder. He answered the bell in April.  The mid-summer setback was legitimate and not a sign that he is not tough.

IN CONTEXT, Bedard HAS been tough about last winter's shoulder surgery, HAS been tough about getting back onto the field.

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=== Ferraris and Civics Dept. ===

Erik Bedard IS fragile.  He reminds me of Butch Henry or David Wells:  he's always tweaking something other than his arm (though this one did happen to be a minor issue on his arm).   You're not going to get 220 innings out of him.

But on the other hand, that's not my test for a pitcher's right to wear the war paint of honor.  I accept the Don Gulletts and Pedro Martinezes and Bret Saberhagens and David Cones who have to be used judiciously.  A lot of World Series have been won by elite talents who were familiar with the training table:  Jose Rijo, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett (soon), David Wells, Chris Carpenter, etc.

Since 1972, I've seen a whale of a lot of teams put up with Chris Carpenter injury woes ... only to see him heal up for October and then fire a 3-hit shutout to win the World Series.

MY goal is to WIN PLAYOFF GAMES, not to win 88 games and offer a nice family night at the ballpark.  (The 88 wins and nice nights come automatically with the winning-playoff-games part.)

I think that hunger for playoff wins, as opposed to VORP/$ efficiency, would increase oour tolerance for a Ferrari's maintenance issues.  We'll see where Capt Jack and Wok are on this question.

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You sign Erik Bedard, you're going to have two DL trips a year.  You're going to have to accept 175 innings a year -- and accept his four wins in October, if you can get him there.

But let's take comfort.  If the guys worrying aren't the doctors, why should we?

Cheers,

Jeff


Comments

1
Enri's picture

Doc,
First, a quibble:
You say that we can know Bedard is healthy because the doctors who have actually seen him have given him a clean bill of health. But isn't that begging the question? You are exactly right that we sabremetric types are flying blind as far as "real data." But if the Yocums of the world were high on him wouldn't the O's or the M's have extended him by now? Couldn't the facts we know  actually support the suspicion that there is something wrong with his arm?
All that said, I'm firmly in the "pay the man" camp. Sure it is high risk, but it is also high reward. Chris Carpenter is the model. After Carpenter had missed a season and a half, he rattled off three healthy seasons. But since the Cardinals extended Carpenter in 2006, he has made a grand total of 18 starts in 2.6 seasons. For this the Cardinals have paid him more than 26 million. Yet, the Cardinals are fine with that because he allows them another legitimate shot at a ring this October. As they should be.
Oh, and lets trade for Halladay, too.
-Enri

2

If the med staff is withholding sticky info, we will see that reflected in Bedard's next contract, no doubts there...
If Bedard goes into FA and then has Sheets-type problemos getting a good offer, that absolutely WILL be the reason for it... lack of release of disturbing info on the medical end...
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As to the M's extending Bedard (or not), Wakamatsu has been very supportive of wanting Erikkkk back but Capt Jack has uttered not a peep ...
If anything, Capt Jack has shown a bias AWAY from high-profile favorites of the Bavasi era.  Would surprise absolutely no one if Zduriencik moved away from Bedard if for no other reason than for the fact that Bedard was not his call...
OTOH we are not accusing Capt Jack of not being able to make a level-headed decision, either.  He has two eyes and if Bedard's shoulder is really sound, Jack knows that Bedard is a monster Opening Day starter.
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Takes two to tango, as well... if Bedard is asking $16m x 4 years, that's one thing... if he is opening talks at CC Sabathia money, then we will see him pitch 2010 in a stadium far, far away...
We'll see...

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