=== The 2005 Astros ===

I/O:  Larry Stone with a sahl-eed! article comparing the 2010 M's to the 2005 Astros.  He compares several things:

1. Clemens & Oswalt, vs Felix and Lee
   
2. The 19-32 start, vs the 18-28 start
3. The offense that underperformed for two months
4. The hail of crumpled paper cups that, ever-more-insistently, demanded the 2005 Astros admit defeat
5. The fact that the 2004 Astros had played reasonably well (as did the 85-win M's)

It's a compelling line of reasoning.

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CRUNCH1, BINOMIAL CALCULATOR:  The knee-jerk response to this type of "model" is to go, "Well, 91.2% of teams behind by 8 games on June 1 missed the playoffs."

It's like saying, 80-90% of all new businesses fail.  They do, but does that mean that yours has an 85% chance of failing?  Of course not, because you may do things differently than the generic failed business does. 

Or you may have more startup money to fall back on.  Or you may be selling iPads, rather than buggy whips.  It's basic logical fallacy to reason from the generic to the specific this way:  "91.2% of American houses have front yards, so my friend's house on Queen Anne Hill has a 91.2% chance of having a lawn in the front yard."

..............

If (say) 91.2% of teams behind by -8.0 games miss the playoffs ... how many of those teams simply kept on losing all year?  Most of them. 

Give me all teams with .400 records on June 1, and I'll show you a group of teams that, collectively, finished .400.  If the M's are going to finish .400 (64-98) then, yeah.  They've got a real good chance of missing the playoffs.

...............

CRUNCH2, AL WEST:  Relevant question #2 is, supposing the Mariners become a winning team from here to the wire, do they have a good chance of fighting for the playoffs in September?

(Notice that we didn't ask, "do they have a chance of qualifying for the playoffs."  If the M's are tied for the division lead with one week left, that will justify a push, whatever happens the last week.  This is another reason that the "91.2% of teams missed the playoffs" is the wrong question to ask!)

Supposing that the M's become a winning team starting the day before yesterday, do they have a chance?  Their chance, then, is the same chance as there is that nobody in the AL West will win 95 games.

The M's aren't in the AL East.

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Part 2