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Oh and nanner nanner nanner. You can't catch me. Written by us. The very end.
I've just grown up.
Halman 50-homer pace!
No sooner does SSI lay down this suppressive fire on Halman, than the dude swats two more the following night -- on TV no less -- and another the next night!
With 18 homers in only 54 games, Halman is on pace for 51.6 PCL homers over the 155-game spread that roto owners use for projections.
Do other PCL'ers hit one homer every 10.7 at-bats? Nay verily. Here are the PCL home run leaders:
- 22 in 263 AB's - Brad Eldred (age 30)
- 21 in 281 - J.P Arencibia (Las Vegas)
- 20 in 309 - Mark Trumbo (Salt Lake)
- 18 in 193 - Greg Halman
- 17 in 305 - Chris Carter
- 16 in 230 - Kila Ka'aihue (Taro's hero)
- 16 in 280 - Chad Tracy
Dan Johnson leads the IL in homers by quite a ways, having hit 22 homers in 268 AB's. Despite playing in Cheney Stadium, and despite the strikeouts, the 22-year-old Halman is the best HR hitter in AAA baseball this year.
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Q. Is his swing too long?
A. Halman actually has a compact swing trigger. He holds his hands about neck-high and draws them back about six inches, horizontally, without a Bret Boone hand-bob.
He has a long followthrough, but that's not what you're talking about with a "long swing." Frank Thomas had a long followthrough. ARod does. They're short TO the ball, not after it. Same with Halman. He lets the top hand go, and gets a big arc on the bat, but he's pretty short to the ball.
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Granted, he does cock the bat at an acute angle, as ARod does. And he lets the bat fly -- "doesn't get cheated" as the cliche goes. But he doesn't have a mechanical flaw to his swing, not whatsoever.
Those advising him to cut down his swing, have to simply be thinking, "dial it down," don't go for so much.
Jim Lefebvre had this problem with Jay Buhner. He wanted Bone to turn down the volume on his swing. It's not a flaws issue.
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Q. What's the two-year scan?
A. G-Money pointed out, long ago, that Halman's EYE wasn't a function of fundamental problems -- it's a reflection of aggressiveness. I've come to see that this is accurate.
If true, it's a simple case of the more pitches he sees, the better off he'll be. Pitch recognition improves with time. Even Bone needed time.
I don't think that Halman could bring his .220 AVG to the majors right now and get 30 homers a year with a .190 AVG. I like Cool Papa's comp, Alfonso Soriano. At age 24, 25, let him take his shot then ... hey, when's this kid's Rule 5 year...
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Q. Is it relevant to an Aaron Hicks trade?
A. If a GM did not take into account his current resources, he'd be derelict of duty.
It's not as simple as "biggest return," and GM's do not play it that way. The Mariners have got to calculate the % that a player at SS will be redundant, vs. the % that a player in LF will be redundant.
You think the Twins took Joe Mauer and Denard Span into account when they pushed Ramos and Hicks at us? The 25-man roster is just the top layer of a talent pyramid. You are managing the entire pyramid.
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Me? If I'm the M's, you're going to have a hard time pushing a corner OF at me. I like my left fielders.
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Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
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and not a moment too soon...
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I'd leave him in AAA until the K-rate gets under control. Halman has a worse K rate than Dallas McPherson or Brandon Wood had.
Soriano is a similar player at the MLB level, but he zipped through the minors and never had the K issues that Halman had.
All that said, Halman's stock is obviously WAY up.
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That works out to 38 HR pace (but 9 of them have been in the Cal League). Raben is setting an absolute torch to the Cal League.
Have you noticed that Halman doesn't hit singles? Only 18 singles and 30 xbh. That's weird.
Raben, on the other hand, has 42 singles, 13 dbls, 4 tpls, 17 HR, 26 BB, 80 K for a combined line (Clinton and High D): .289/.368/.563.
Not complaining. Nice to have them both (and Saunders, too).
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If my memory serves me correctly he was added to the 40 man roster last year so he would have one more year (2011) he could play in the minors without having to be placed on the 25man roster or having to pass thru waivers before being assigned to the minors again.
Halman has made some impressive strides this year, especially showing a little more patience as his walk total is way up this year. But I agree there is no reason to bring him up this year. Let him continue to play in Tacoma as he hopefully can improve his contact rate.
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Only because he was so old when he came stateside. Halman's production at 22 is better than Soriano's at 24, and if Halman is still in AAA in two years his K's probably won't be any worse than Alfonso's were. He's actually ahead of where Soriano was at this point.
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I think there is an overfocus on age and underfocus on "speed of development".
Soriano came stateside and was immediately good in AA (with far better BB/K and K% than Halman), and reached AAA his first year. Took a half year to figure out AAA, and bam, hes in the majors.
Soriano's time in the NPB as a regular bench-bat artificially inflated his "baseball age".
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Maybe Soriano wasn't as advanced as his age suggested. So what? Halman is already in AAA and has 3 more years before he is the same age as Soriano was when he first got a major league starting job (and was mediocre). Is it really a stretch to think that if Halman gets 2 1/2 more seasons in the minors he could have an underwhelming .736 OPS in the big leagues the following year? That's actually a pretty low bar to jump. Really, he's doing great by the Soriano standard. Here is a reasonable timeline:
22- finish the year in AAA with very strong production and awful K rate
23- repeat AAA with improved production and K rate, get some time in the majors
24- get significant playing time in the majors with poor production
25- have solid season in the majors (.800 OPS)
26- become All Star caliber (.900+ OPS)
That's similar to what Soriano did, and I'll point out that in his first big season at the age of 26, he had 157 K's (in 156 games) and only 22 walks.
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The point is critical, that really what you're talking about is # of pro pitches seen, as opposed to chrono age as such.
Glad to see that Law of Gravity emphasized.
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However, would agree that even after "normalization," Halman has all kinds of margin and wiggle room to comp to Soriano anyway.
And the overwhelming point of comparison is the way that both players' EYEs were at the farrrrrrrrrr left side of the bell curve. That and both players' freakish gifts.
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Bo Jackson, I think, was G-Money's comp here...
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And that sounds about right.
Would be all for 2011 in the minors, and then commit to him or deal him for Lou Gehrig.
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I've often wondered why more sluggers haven't adopted the Brett Boone "two strike" batting stance. Sacrifice some power for a better look at the ball and presumably higher average once the pitcher gets that second strike. Just try and poke it the other way or up the middle, get on base and keep the inning alive. Boone made serious hay with that approach for a few years and I don't think I've seen it since.
Shrug. Might be a way to get somewhat of a handle on a guy like Halman's aggressiveness.
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Mike Wilson homered again tonight. He's hitting a tater at a 1 for 14 PA's rate in AAA this year. Halman is about 1 for 12.5.
Of course Wilson has some years advantage.
But, as Doc said above, it is very reasonalbe that between the two of them ANd Saunders there is one potent MLB bat, perhaps next year, certainly in 2 years. And you have a reasonalbe OF/DH bench type to pick from the other two. I'm on the record as liking Wilson (I really like the fact that he walks .100) but if Halman is the guy....I can live with that. I would love to see Wilson up this year...but I'm not sure we're gong to see that until September, unfortunately.
Alas....I can take consolance in the idea that the minors look to be stocked with some guys that will help soon.
moe
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Its my opinion that raw age is way overrated and "development speed" way underrated.
For me, theres not much a of a difference between an 17 year old coming out of highschool or a 20 year international prospect either than PHYSICAL projection (how you project the 17 year old to mature physically).
Once their rookies its an equal game. Baseball wise these two prospects are the same age and whoever develops quicker is the quicker learner and more likely to succeed at the big league level.
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Soriano didn't get a shot at regular ABs until he was much older as a prospect. It artificially inflates his prospect age. He was VERY quick in graduating from the minors and was in the bigs after 1000 PAs.
Soriano also never EVER struck out at a 38% clip in the minors. He was a GOOD contact hitter in the minors at about a 17.5 K%. Literally HALF of Halman's K rate.
Soriano only starting running those terrible BB/K and K% after he made the bigs. The pitching is that much better.
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But I still prefer my Preston Wilson comp as opposed to Soriano, he was similar in size, and had a similar minor league path to Halman. Look at the Ks, walks, and homeruns. No Preston wasn't a star and when his bat slowed down, he was out of baseball, but who knows, it could be Halman's fate that he's pretty good until about 30.
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Not sour grapes at all. Appreciate the reminder.
Might almost consider that a MID projection for Halman right now -- K%, BB%, SB's, general physique and age-arc. Beautiful.
If we forget, keep reminding us.
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Halman fans would hope for an UP that involves more than 28 homers per 162, but you're talking about a 50th-percentile arc here.
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After Boone roided up (IMHO) he was so ridiculously swagger-ful that he felt comfortable in his masculinity going for RBI's to RF.
Few major leaguers are willing to look like a dork with two strikes.
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Saunders, Halman ML-ready next year, Mike Wilson now ...
And if Alex Liddi, Matt Mangini, Matt Tuiasosopo or Carlos Triunfel are going to join Chone in the IF, then Dustin Ackley may be the #4 left field prospect.
None of those guys are going to play CF or RF.
The M's *are* loaded with interesting position players about to hit the beach.
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The Angels fans always used to talk about Figgins at SS. Wish the M's would.
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I like the Preston Wilson comp a lot better than Soriano.
Late bloomer, terrible eye in minors, high K%.
Even so, Halman K issues are even worse even in comparison to Preston Wilson. Wilson had a 25.5% K rate in the minors, Halman's is 31.5%. However Halman has even MORE power than Wilson had.
Halman is even more risky as a prospect with an even higher upside.
Its still a very good comp IMO if you're looking for an upside scenario.
I feel like Halman's bust potential is still really high, but if his K rate in AAA goes down to around 20% in a year.. Watch out. You could really have something special.
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Yes I see the duality here in both players. I guess if the shoe fits wear it.
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Wee look at ME! I can ride a bicycle and read a book an hula hoop all at the same time.
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Few major leaguers are willing to look like a dork with two strikes.
Yeah, that's probably it. Same reason Shaq wouldn't shoot free throws underhand, even when Rick Barry told him that he could give him an extra 6-7 pooints per game. He would rather look cool with a low free throw percentage than look dorky and be more lethal.
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Shaq wouldn't be able to take the other players laughing at him.
Pretty much the same with a cleanup hitter choking up two strikes, I think.
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That said, remember how Griff wasn't afraid to choke up in 1989-1990?
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Should we as amatuer baseball analyst penalize strikeouts when it may have diminshed some with regards to how players view them.
Currently there is little stigma attached to strikeouts. See Link
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2009-08-04-strikeouts_N.htm?loc=...
At one time there was a negative association to striking out, however as long as player is able to illustrate value thru his power output or OBP he will be absolved of his propensity to strikeout.
As fans we do tend to give more recognition to a singularly extreme talent i.e. who draws more recognition the Olympic gold medal winner in the 100m sprint or the gold winning Decathlete or a more apropos example who was a better pure hitter Griffey or Edgar (if all I needed was a basehit to drive in a run, I would have preferred seeing Edgar at bat especially after Griffey fell in love with the long ball).
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I cant find my sneakers.
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His career walk rate stands at 6.5% compared to Wilson's 5.9% minors walk rate. Also, his flyball % has skipped up this year to 50% from 40% over the rest of his career, it's hard to say if this is coincidence or perhaps Dr. Elliot's work, but that, along with higher walks and less strikeouts could be a key to his future success, as, obviously, more balls in the air allow for more homers.
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In another Rainiers win. Gotta hit some Rainiers games this July-August, what?
Halman also with a BB and a HBP in the game.
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With a 615 SLG and a 960 OPS at the age of 22 in AAA baseball, Halman meets James' rule of thumb for Grade A prospect from a sheer performance standpoint, never mind the physical gifts.
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Golfclap for the tools scouts who, 2 years ago, had Halman as the M's #1 prospect before he'd ever done anything. They knew things we saberdudes didn't.
Fun to watch right now.
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OBP by month: April: 0.328May: 0.323June: 0.329
SLG by month: April: 0.417May: 0.518June: 0.648
Don't even ask about July - his first week is through the ROOF (a 1.603 OPS week is pretty good...).
He's holding steady as a .250 hitter with a .330 OBP, but he's starting to club for ridiculous power again, and with a BB:K that's twice as good as it used to be. That still means it's bad, but it's no longer historically, impossibly bad.
Maybe he can become Mark Reynolds/Bo Jackson at the plate after all.
~G
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I suppose this isn't so surprising, but Halman is close to defenseless in AAA when behind in the count -- 48 strikeouts in 75 plate appearances with no walks. Contrast Halman with one of the best hitting prospects in AAA, Logan Morrison. While Halman has a higher OPS (0.960 vs. 0.945) in total, Morrison strikes out about 25% of the time when behind in the count rather than 67%.
On the positive side, when Halman knows the pitcher needs to throw a strike and he puts the ball in play he has an OPS of 1.573 with a home run every 5.5 at bats!
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You sure that's accurate? Minorleaguesplits.com doesn't show that.
Its 35K/9BB in 64 ABs, .234/.338/.516/.854 isn't great, but it's not defenseless.
He's not ready for the bigs. He's NOT. But he IS making progress for the first time in a long time. He has to learn how to better protect himself when the pitcher has the advantage, and he's got to stop swinging at so much junk. But he's very still at the plate right now. He looks more like he's playing within himself.
Maybe he's growing up. I've heard it happens to some folks. :)
Love the K input though - it does better illustrate where he's got to grow.
~G
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The numbers come from milb.com website. I think the number should be viewed as IF Halman is behind in the count AND he ends his at bat on the next pitch WHAT is the outcome? I think this is the case because it shows no walks when he is behind in the count, but he must have started some at bat 0-1 yet worked a walk.
I sure wish we had in-zone and out-of-zone contact rates for Halman. I would like to know if he can't decipher a ball from a strike until it is too late, if he struggles to put the bat on the ball, or both?