Fangraphs Weighs in on Prospects
With my annotations FWIW

Fangraphs finally came out with its 2015 Mariners prospect rankings, and I was going to input it into my database anyway, so I'll share.

[Other rankings are in brackets as follows: Baseball America - MLB.com - John Sickles ("O" means the "others" list) - Baseball Prospectus] [The latter only has a top 10 available.]

***

First, they rank current MLB players 27 and under.  The most valuable?  Kyle Seager.  And then Mike Zunino at No. 2, just ahead of Taijuan Walker.

Sometimes we forget about Zunino's offensive potential, but it wasn't that long ago that he was matching offensive numbers in the minors with Brad Miller (who's No. 4).

***

Then, we get a proper dose of pessimism from Dave Cameron.  Things look pretty good!  Considering that the two best players can only get worse!

OK, thanks for setting us straight, Dave.

In fact, it's exactly like the 2003 Yankees.  Their two best players could only get worse after Jeter went .324/.393/.450 and Rivera was 1.66 ERA and 40 saves.  Gosh darn depressing it was for them to only have eight more playoff seasons, eight more 90-win seasons and a World Series title before the two of them retired.

But good to know.

[Sorry, don't usually get snarky ... but c'mon.]

***

Then the prospects:

1. Alex Jackson [1-1-1-2]

No one is down on Jackson at all.

2. D.J. Peterson [2-2-2-1]

"Middle of the order masher.'  Can't argue with that.

3. Ketel Marte [3-3-6-3]

I guess everyone is reacting to how fast he was promoted, which is totally legit.  But it's not everything.  They say "shortstop isn't a sure thing" and "limited offensive upside" ... so not quite seeing how that adds up to No. 3. 

4. Edwin Diaz [6-7-3-5]

Keeps moving in the right direction, which we can't say about Tyler Pike.  Ranking is high to me only because I'm more optimistic about the hitters.

5. Patrick Kivlehan [4-4-7-NR]

A very long discussion.  Football terms, of course: "hard nosed"  and "good makeup" and the like. 

6. Austin Wilson [5-6-4-10]

They are a little bit "wait-and-see."  I agree about the injuries, but I don't see much inconsistency since late summer 2013.

7. Ryan Yarbrough [9-11-11-NR]

If I'm late to the Yarbrough bandwagon, so be it.  He was really awesome in the short-season Northwest League ... but to put him ahead of Gohara and Hultzen already?

8. Gabriel Guerrero [7-5-5-4]

I suppose I hope I'm unduly pessimistic about Gaby, but I am.  I guess I'll be the only one leaving him out of the top 10.

9. Brayan Hernandez [16-18-15-NR]

Total wild card at this point, but hard to be too optimistic given Phillips Castillo, Guillermo Pimentel, Martin Peguero ... well, you know ...

10. Luiz Gohara [8-8-10-7]

Debut at 16 reinforced all the positives; follow-up at 17 reinforced the doubts.  Legit to drop him a few notches.

11. Tyler Marlette [14-9-14-6]

I did my "wait-and-see" time with Marlette.  Not anymore.  Don't understand why every ranking has Guerrero higher.

12. Danny Hultzen [30-25-13-NR]

Uncertainty.  I get it.

13. Tyler O'Neill [11-12-8-NR]

Another guy I'm more "wait-and-see" about.

14. Carson Smith [10-10-12-9]

I'm an early adopter, of course.

15. Gareth Morgan [12-13-O-NR]

"Wait-and-see" times ten billion.  Was one of the worst hitters in the organization in 2014, though I understand the appeal.

16. John Hicks [13-14-18-NR]

MLB backup backstop likelihood really high.  With Zunino, might make Marlette prime trade bait.

17. Julio Morban [25-21-O-NR]

I jumped on the Morbanwagon when it was all but empty.  It's been in the garage for a long time, but still has a few stragglers on board.

18. Austin Cousino [23-17-O-NR]

Doesn't jump off the page at me yet.

19. Jack Reinheimer [17-15-O-NR]

Inevitable Chris Taylor comparison.

20. Stephen Landazuri [NR-22-O-NR]

"Flew way under the radar" ... depending on whom you were reading, of course.

21. Tyler Pike [NR-28-O-NR]

Reports the club is not worried, long term.  Well, I am.  And obviously he's not in any top 10s anymore.

22. Ji-Man Choi [29-27-O-NR]

"Needs to rake to matter."  Fair enough.

23. Jordy Lara [15-16-16-NR]

"Needs to hit and hit a lot."  Also fair enough.

24. David Rollins [NR-26-O-NR]

Worth a relief shot.

***

"Cistulli's Fringe Guys"

Tyler Smith.  But of course ... and even the inevitiable Chris Taylor comparison.

Dario Pizzano.  But of course again ... sigh of relief for the Pizzano Paisanos that he gets a mention

Aaron Barbosa.  Baseball America and now Fangraphs at least drop the name.  Progress.

Los Dos Jabari (Blash and Henry).  That should cover it ... except Dan Paolini must feel left out.

***

Laundry List of "Others"

Mayckol Guiape.

Sam Gaviglio.

Mike Kickham.

Edgar Olmos.

Tyler Olson.  Whoa ... late to this party.

Brian Moran.

Daniel Missaki.

Dan Altavilla.

Trey Cochran-Gill.  Must be a conspiracy to list Altavilla & Cohcran-Gill next to each other.  Three of five do.

Ramon Morla as a pitcher.  Yea!  Be a Morla-on-the-Mound early adopter.

Chris Torres.  Most recent Latin teen bonus drama.

Joe DeCarlo.  Not written off by everybody.

Tyler Smith.  Again.

Los Dos Jabari.  Again.

Leon Landry.  Huh? He got lapped by James Jones.

***

Assorted international guys

Jose Leal. 

Estarlyn Morales.

Erick Meija.

Luis Liberato.

Rayder Ascanio.

Freddy Peralta.

Onil Pena.

Greifer Andrade

Juan Camacho.

Blog: 

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.