Closer Candidates - Power Rankings

Jemanji's 2009 Power Rankings for the Seattle closer role :- )

1.  Josh Fields - best choice to close.  Spend da money
2.  Tyler Walker - could give you a Bob Wickman season or two
3.  David Aardsma - no way to tell until ST
4.  Mark Lowe - becoming worrisome; am pessimistic
5.  Roy Corcoran - should be on some ML team, just not this one
6.  Miguel Batista - in lieu of funny-but-cruel remark, we'll just say:  BPV = -40; Age = 38

1a.  Aaron Heilman - should start.  You can't teach "gifted" - and his 3rd pitch is ready now

..............

Jason at Prospect Insider gives you his $0.03, based on an interesting scouts'-eye view of which pitcher has the "stuff" most suited to the role.

I don't have anything against "stuff," obviously. I weigh the simple pitching stat of K/BB much, much more heavily than almost anybody else, and K/BB tells you a lot about (a) how much stuff a guy has and, more importantly, (b) how well he deploys that stuff, whatever its voltage is.

My saber-Mein on these candidates, to be served alongside Jason's sizzling Kung Pao:

Roy Corcoran

A ground ball pitcher with a 90-92 mph fastball, mid-80s slider, and no third offering, Corcoran is not ideal for the closer's role. He lacks an out pitch and brings subpar control to the table, making the 28-yar-old a better option for the middle innings behind the starter.

His ground ball ratios rank among the tops in baseball - No. 1 for relievers - and he can cover multiple innings in each outing, serving as a bit of a rubber arm for new skipper Don Wakamatsu.

Agree that his best role is in the rubber-arm, low-leverage role.

Putz likes him because of his heart, but Dr. D is the wrong guy to ask about 2+ GB pitchers with 1.0 command ratios. Remember Sean Green? He has miles more ability than Corcoran, and his latest plateau-leaps forward have made him ..... an average pitcher.

Corcoran got lucky last year, both in BABIP and HR/F. He's a tiger out there, but he shouldn't be on the 2009 staff, much less closing.

.

Miguel Batista

Batista's velocity and movement suggest he should be more effective than he is - in any role - but his command is poor and the break on his slider is often soft.

A brilliant way to put it.

Considering that he lacks an out pitch, even when he's at his best, Batista serves the M's best in a long relief role, covering multiple innings per appearance, and as a spot starter, regardless of his prior experience as a closer.

A very kind way to put it.

Miggy's a great guy. His BPV last season was ... um ... -40. (Fifty is the lowest you consider drafting; 25 is the level at which you spend that inning to go for nachos.)

.

David Aardsma

The 27-year-old Aardsma may have the best pure stuff of any reliever in the M's organization... When 100 percent healthy, Aardsma has mid-tier setup stuff or better.

Sabermetrically speaking, needs a breakthrough in command. Sabermetrically speaking, could get it at any time. Sabermetrically speaking, Aardsma is just a wait-and-see-in-ST, which serves as a microcosm for the entire bullpen.

.

Tyler Walker

Walker has experience closing, too, saving 23 of 28 for the Giants in 2005 and 10 of 12 for Tampa Bay a year later. He struggled with the home run ball a year ago - seven in 51 innings - and his command remains average at best.

But his plus fastball - often clocked in the 93-94 mph range, plus changeup and average curve ball are enough weapons to get outs in the late innings in either league.

Command is the key for Walker, who can sink his fastball and run it away from left-handed hitters, but gets hit hard when he leaves it up in the zone.

I have a real inkling for Tyler Walker as a Bob Wickman-style, lunch-pail closer. I suspect he likes the job, and that he's got enough stuff to get three men out before two guys cross home plate.

Oddly, there are times when I'd rather see a Bob Wickman type closing, from the full stretch, than coming into the 8th with the bases loaded. This is one of those times.

.

Mark Lowe

If Lowe is even 95 percent of what he was pre-surgery, he's the best candidate to close games for the Mariners this upcoming season, despite below-average command. The chances that he outperforms Aardsma and Walker aren't great, however, but Lowe is likely to get numerous chances to prove he's the right arm for the job.

G-Moneyball noted, two years ago, that Lowe would have rehab fits and starts. But those fits and starts are becoming more persistent than Dr. D would like to see. Am worried.

In the 2nd half last year, Mark fanned 6 guys a game, walked 5, and gave up a hide-the-women-and-children 1.5 jacks per nine innings.

There's the chance that Lowe will return to that nuclear form of 2006. But objectively speaking, I'm starting to think it's not much of a chance. Sorry.

Unsigned first-round pick Josh Fields would be another candidate if he signed in time to start spring training with the rest of the pitchers and catchers, but he'd certainly be on the outside looking in having not pitched in nine months.

How long ago was it, everybody had a big cafeteria food fight over whether a half year in the minors was enough time for a college pitcher? :- )

I personally would agree: if Fields signed, and came to camp, and had this 97 fastball and Tom Gordon hammer, and was a "swagger" kid, then I'd cheerfully let him do a Jon Papelbon riverdance on the Angels' heinies.

I guess that's not too bizarre these days, with the Huston Street type situations that have come up.

A weird thing, but that's the best M's ballclub: a confident Josh Fields closing, Aaron Heilman #4, and a couple of big SP seasons away from a huge surprise.

The extra million, for a random prospect, you turn down. The extra million, when it puts Aaron Heilman into the rotation, that's chump change.

Cheers,

Dr D

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