1
and another position with a lefty bat at Safeco
Clement at C or 1B?
At Lookout Landing, Graham has a fine post in which he discusses the pros and cons of moving Jeff Clement away from catcher.
(I hope he'll take this as a compliment, by the way, but in any case my impression of this LL author is that he's one of the four or five guys on the entire baseball internet who is so smart, that he knows he is dumb. And that's meant as high praise.Personally, I understand the value of knowing what I don't know, but can't seem to get the hang of it!)
This particular line made me smile:
Remember that the worst defensive catcher of all time was worth -10 runs.
This is a logical mechanism that they won't teach you in college, but Bill James has been exploiting it since the 1980's.
For example, Bill once ran computer sims of the very worst lineup sequences he could devise -- for example, Ichiro hitting 8th, and Beltre hitting 9th, and Betancourt and Gutierrez 1-2, that kind of thing.
Bill found that no matter how wretchedly you twist a lineup, you can't penalize yourself more than about 5%. ... "and if the difference between a horrible lineup and a perfect one is 5%, then what is the difference between two reasonable lineups? That's right. It's nothing."
Graham, no doubt in a completely independent manner, picks up this logical tool and applies it to catcher: "If the difference between the greatest and the worst catchers is 10 runs, what is the difference between two non-flier defensive performances at catcher?"
Dr. D would have finished, "that's right. It's nothing." Graham, more circumspectly, says to peg it at 5.
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So LL finishes the recommendation to leave Clement at C with,
For 5 runs of defensive upgrade, Jeff Clement would lose 25 runs of positional value. 25! Potential injuries aside, no matter how bad he looks in the field, there is no way that you shift Clement off his postion right now.
Which states the case beautifully.
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On the other hand, and just adding our two cents to a perfectly sound observation ...
James about 1993 wrote an article in which he noted that the above logic was what he had believed all his life -- until he started watching the best organizations in baseball. And he noticed that when a good organization had a choice between placing a young franchise player at (say) 3B or SS -- when a player was a "tweener" -- it almost always put the player at the easier position.
Rather than putting a Troy Glaus or Howard Johnson (pick your own name; those are out of hats and don't mean anything) at shortstop and letting them battle the position, orgs would let the young star move to an easy position, excel at defense there, and develop a better offensive arc than they otherwise would.
Putting a player at his toughest position, noted Bill, is exactly what you do in a Strat-O-Matic game, and for exactly the reason articulated by LL. Because you gain a lot more runs through the position differential than you give up on defense. A good Strat-O team would consist of a lot of Adrian Beltres at SS.
The real world intervenes, and putting a player at the easier of two positions helps nurture the player into a better career.
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On the OTHER other hand, in THIS case, Dr. D would leave Jeff Clement at catcher if at all possible.
The list of teams in baseball history who had huge bats at C -- Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench, Roy Campanella, Pudge Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Bill Dickey -- is a list of teams that won lots of pennants.
+25 runs doesn't even really capture the effect of gaining an extra cleanup hitter. When Thurman Munson or Gary Carter are catching and batting #3 or #4, it's as if the pitcher is facing two lineups at once. The synergy involved just seems overwhelming to me. Put a huge bat at C, and then fill in a normally-dangerous lineup in addition, and it's like there's nowhere for the pitcher to breathe.
Having a #4 hitter playing catcher -- whether he's good at catching or not -- is one whale of a step up on a baseball pennant. Think of a catcher who hit great, and you'll probably also be thinking of a team that was in the playoffs a lot.
Good stuff,
Dr D
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image: http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/images/2008/04/30/iuBLKyH8.jpg
Comments
2
Agree that you gotta try to keep Clement at C as long as his knees let him.
Still, "pitch calling" wasn't considered in the analysis and seems like the biggest role for the catcher on defense. This one area that we still don't know how to measure.
3
Check out the first comment from DC on LL. Dave's sayin' pretty much the same thing.
Good discourse on this topic.
4
Darn - gotta agree with Doc 100% here -- (and we'd been having so much fun disagreeing lately :)
Frankly, I want Clement at catcher because he has shown himself to be utterly and completely AWFUL when DHing. This is a sign to me of where the kid's head is at. Of course, maybe playing full-time at 1B might be enough to keep him in the groove -- but Doc was the one who noted that Mike Carp's positional splits were off-the-charts horrendous when he was attempting to not look foolish in the OF.
What I would love to see more than anything - is for Johjima to start off the year well - and have him traded to the Yankees when they get desperate for catching. I too, want Clement catching, because catchers who can hit are RARE, (and valuable). It makes the subsequent taks of lineup construction EASIER.
5
LOL Sandy :- )
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++Frankly, I want Clement at catcher because he has shown himself to be utterly and completely AWFUL when DHing. This is a sign to me of where the kid’s head is at.++
Where's his head at?
6
Catching is easily the most cerebral position in baseball, (this is why I love catchers as managers). When playing catcher, you HAVE to be thinking 100% of the time. You have to be constantly alert. You and the pitcher are the only guys that are part of EVERY play. There is never a chance to "lollygag".
DHing is the polar opposite. What do you do to stay sharp as a DH? Sudoku?
A study I would love to see -- compare the 1Bs to OFs as DH conversions. I think the 1B to DH conversions would tend to be worse because the 1Bs get a LOT more activity defensively. The OFs routinely stand in place for 3 outs, never moving, and then have to head to the plate and be "on" instantaneously. Heck, even on a 3-K pitcher inning, the infielders get to toss the ball around the diamond.
Being able to "dial it up" in an instant is a SKILL. Of course, any skill can be developed (to a point), but my own suspicion is that young guys, (pre-age-25), playing fulltime DH is going to be VERY hard to do, and quite possibily detrimental to player development.