The K% is too much of a gap and also the speed of ascention through the minors. Dye just developed much quicker and still had far better contact ratios. 
A 76 CT% vs 85 CT% is NOT a small difference. Its like saying theres not much of a difference between Ichiro and Gutierrez contact wise. Its a very big gap.
You have to find someone who had 3000+ PAs in the minors with a K% around 24% or worse and BB/K around 0.3-0.4. For me Preson Wilson is the guy that all terrible strikezone control prospects aspire to.
Chavez's upside is something like Preston Wilson with less D. His chances of getting there aren't that great either IMO. Hes a HUGE sell high for me this offseason.

There are some significant differences between Preston Wilson and Johermyn Chavez just as there are significant differences between Chavez and Jermaine Dye.  Wilson's K rates were consistently between 24-27% in the minors, Chavez was at 29% his first year at low-A, 25% his second, and 21% this year at A+.  His walk rates improve the same way; 5.6% his first year at low-A, 7% his second, and 8.5% at A+, compared to Wilson who hovered around 4-5% until he learned to walk a bit at AAA somehow.  So Chavez is showing signs of improved contact and pitch recognition (especially when looking at his in season splits: 25.2 K%, 7.7 BB% Apr-Jun, then 18.1 K%, 9.7 BB% Jul-Sep). 
We also have to remember that Wilson came up at a very different time compared to players today, even though that time was less than 2 decades ago.  Back then, the mantra was much more, "See ball, hit ball, take a walk if you don't get a pitch to hit", as opposed to now where it's more, "Make him throw some pitches, hit it if you can crush it, don't offer at edgy stuff unless you don't have a choice."  Also, Wilson came from the US, whereas Chavez came from Venezuela.  Admittedly we've talked here about the poor coaching that exists here, but Chavez likely received absolutely no coaching, and likely had little experience using a real bat, until the Mariners signed him as a free agent.  In the end it might be an advantage (being trained only by the highest level professionals without the static of amateurs) but through his teenage years he was still learning a lot while playing against players that had been coached since childhood.
Therefore I think you have to try and compare Chavez against other players from outside the US (not Japan) to get a better comparison.  Unfortunately, a lot of the guys that pop up are Hall of Fame type talents (which not even the biggest Chavez fan is ready to label him) like Sosa, Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, and Miguel Cabrera, who mostly rocketed through the minors anyway.  So now it gets really difficult trying to match him up using my selection AND yours (a lot of players skip A+ or are rushed to it).  The best I can find are Nelson Cruz and Jose Bautista.  Both players entered the pros a lot later than Chavez (age 20 for Cruz and Bautista, age 17 for Chavez).  However, the similarities are nice, all 3 players are about the same size, all showed big time power in the minors and had bad strikeout totals (Cruz as bad or worse than Chavez, Bautista's not quite as bad).  Cruz walked less than Chavez, Bautista more.  The good news, as far as the comps go, is that both players are all stars, the bad news; it took both players a long time to get there (Cruz looked like a AAAA player until 27, Bautista admittedly had the weirdest lost year of development, but was an average roster filler type until this year).

Nelson Cruz is a nice upside scenario skill-wise. Thats a similar template.
Of course Cruz never posted an OPS lower than 900 after Mid-A, but he was drafted old. Cruz also threw up 1000+ meaningless AAA PAs posting 1.100+ OPSs for THREE consecutive years so his actual minor league total should probably be closer to 2000 PAs. In order to track with Cruz, Chavez is going to have to start mashing in AA next season.
I think Chavez is this years Alex Liddi. Mediocre batting line away from our Home park in A+, bad eye, high Ks, little defensive value. I'm just skeptical of how much of a prospect he is considering the slow development and strikezone issues. 

Age is overrated IMO, development at the pro level underrated (it gives you a hint of how likely a guy is to keep improving). Besides Dye was STILL in AA at age 21 with better contact rates.
I like the Nelson Cruz comp for an extreme upside scenario although Chavez will have to really hit in AA next year to keep up. Dye is just the wrong comp IMO. They were very different hitters with different development curves in the minors.

Its hard to find any MLBers that became stars with Chavez's strikezone control, K%, and slow development in the minors whether American or international.
I don't even agree unless we're talking about more advanced college leagues. Is highscool and local college baseball really that different from international ball? I doubt it. Its what you do as a professional that counts. The 20 year old draftee from a community college really isn't that different from a 17 year old Domincan baseball age wise. Neither of them have faced anything comparable to low A baseball. 
Obviously the 17 year old will be more projectable PHYSICALLY than the 20 year old, but as far as developing professional baseball skills? Theres no difference. These guys are essentially starting at the same time.

Dye WAS in the bigs at 22 - and failed.  He was brought up too early and could only get bad part-time performances in the bigs for 3 years with a .22 batting eye, getting optioned back to the minors each year for parts of those seasons.  Dye hit his stride at age 25 in his 4th big league season (and first full-time one).
  
Jermaine's .44 minor league batting eye is better than Chavez's .31 for sure.  But Chavez posted a .40 in A+ at 21 (.50 for the second half of the year), while Dye put up a .40 in A-ball at 20 and a .36 in AA at 21.  Dye hit AAA at 22 and then spent parts of 3 seasons there.  It's not inconceivable that Chavez hits AAA at the end of next year.  I don't know quite what to make of his year based on his league and park, but I know it was impressive on any level. 
  
And it's not that far off the Dye track or comparison (higher Ks aside, since the ratios are similar).  Jermaine didn't have to repeat A ball, so he's ahead of Chavez there.  Dye WAS in AA at age 21 instead of high A, but he skipped A+ all together.  Could Chavez have skipped the Cal League and posted a .800ish OPS like Dye instead of the .965 he did post in a bigger hitter's league and park?  I don't know.  Since the High Desert hitting coach was tweaking his approach and swing, it may be very fortunate for us and him that he was not pushed that hard.
 
Dye was pushed very hard.  And it retarded his development, IMO.  Still, to catch up to Dye's pro-AB track Chavez has 700 more at-bats to go before he needs to be a good major leaguer.  He's probably not gonna make that.  But if he did he would be 23 instead of 25 when doing so.  Age may not be the most important indicator, but it does say something.
 
They would be taking slightly different approaches to get to their performances.  Chavez Ks more certainly.  But I would still think 30 HR/ 30 2B and a .290/.340/.480 would be indicative of the sort of performance I'd want from a successful version of Chavez, and that's Jermaine Dye.
 
Chavez has proven he's a worthwhile addition to the minors for this team and not some scrub add-in.  Is he on a fast-track to the bigs or is he gonna loop around a while like Wilson and Halman, trying to prove to someone that he can learn and won't get exposed and humiliated in the bigs?  I dunno.
 
His PROBABILITY to be Dye isn't large, but it's the outcome I'd put as his goal. 

Though I'd certainly take Nelson Cruz.  First step, though, is to maintain his skills in AA.  Alternately we could trade him now and call it a day...and that's an option I would leave on the table.

~G

Its better contact, better eye, quicker advancement. I'm not seeing the comp.
Chavez strikes out too much to hit for average like Dye.
If Chavez can improve on his ratios maybe the comps will change.

  
Miguel Cabrera strikes out 125 times a year and does okay in the average dept.
  
He's kind of a special talent, though.
  
Andruw Jones struck out 130 times a year and posted the same OPS+ as Dye, though with that lower average you were talking about.  Of course, he was in the bigs as a teen so he was pretty special too.
 
Geoff Jenkins stuck out 140+ times a year, came in at about the same OPS+ number as both Jones and Dye (113 vs 111), but with a .275 average instead of .290 I suppose.  He did bat .290+ in 4 seasons.  He was an all star just one lonely year but had comparable offensive output to both of those guys.  Nobody called Jenkins special, he just performed at an above-average level.
 
Shin-soo Choo strikes out that same 140+ times a year (162 game average) but somehow manages that .295 batting average.  He walks more than Chavez, and struck out somewhat less than Chavez, but we were just talking contact here.
 
It's nice to say that "He'll never hit for average because of his contact rates" but there are exceptions to every rule.  I'm not saying Chavez doesn't still need work.  He does.  His K rate needs to get better, and it would be great if his K:BB could stay where it ended the year and not where it started.
 
But I'm not capping his growth at Preston Wilson.  Though if he was Preston, why would that not be a good prospect for the system?  Preston played 10 years in the bigs with a few years of very decent numbers in his 20s (and he was playing CF).  Pshaw, no better than Preston Wilson?  I think Preston's a very decent comp for a Johermyn that doesn't get all the way to where we'd like to see him - and still a decently valuable piece to have even on a corner.

But I agree with you, first let's see the power stay and his 2nd half ratios remain or even improve in AA.  He's by no means a sure thing.  It's just nice that he's not our best hitting prospect.  Ackley, Smoak, Franklin, Poythress, Seager, Choi, Jones... Chavez is one of a number of interesting and valuable hitters.  Maybe they all bust a la Clement/Balentien/Halman/etc from 2 years ago. 

All the more reason to trade one of the surplus.

~G

None of those guys K'ed that much in the minors though. Thats why Chavez isn't really a comp for any of them. You have to find MLBers with similar tools, skillsets, and development curves when they were minor leaguers.
A 24 k% in the bigs is absolutely fine if its come with other skills. In the minors its a lot less forgivable unless the secondary skills are very strong. For 90+% of guys K-rate goes up in the majors, usually significantly so.
A terrible BB/K rate and high K% in the minors usually does not translate to big league success. Neither do guys who have 3000+ minor league PAs before they get a cup of coffee in the bigs. There are exceptions, but the "ODDS" are just very strongly against this player type.
I think Chavez's upside is similar to something between Preston Wilson and Nelson Cruz, but that hes got a less than a 3% chance of reaching it. This is a guy I'd dangle as a significant 2nd or 3rd piece this offseason in trade. I don't know if his stock is ever going to be higher.

Chavez is in my top-3 tradable minor leaguers - guys that have worth that I would give up now in order to improve the club because I don't think they'll ever be a contributing part of the big league roster.
  
His stock is (or should be) through the roof for all the reasons previously outlined: great work ethic, #1 hitting prospect in Blue Jays per a few different outlets BEFORE he took it to eleven in the Cal League for us, improving batting eye, cannon from the outfield, scads of power, et al.
  
And yes, AS HE HAS BEEN, he is unlikely to have major success in the bigs. His eye wasn't good enough until the 2nd half of this year to compensate for his massive K totals, and those totals were too massive for his number of ABs to boot.  IF his work with the batting coach in High Desert helped him turn a corner, great.  He's got a shot to make the bigs and be a minor star. 
  
I still trade that guy.
 

But THAT'S the guy you want to be trading (110-130 OPS, corner OFer, top outfield arm, etc).  You want to trade a shot at Geoff Jenkins, not just the continually mired Greg Halman or Mike Wilson.
 
If he hits AA and crashes back to earth with worsening K rates against better breaking balls, etc, then his stock drops, probably irrevocably.  We need to pull a Gillies with someone from High Desert.  Poythress, Seager or Chavez needs to go.  They're riding huge numbers, huge 2nd half numbers, maximization of their skillsets...
 

 
 
I'd pick Chavez to go, though Poythress is a good option too.
 
We should be able to get a LOT for Chavez + someone like a Robles.  You suggested Pineda + Saunders + Chavez for Colby Rasmus on MC.  I'd swap Pineda for Robles and then make the call.  That would be 3 months of Wash + 1/2 of Morrow + a AAAA player for 4 years minimum of a power LF bat who could move to RF if Ichiro ever stopped playing.

I think it's more likely than you do that Chavez gets it right and can make a positive impact on a ML roster someday, but I don't bet those odds.  I'd trade him just like you would, especially as a package for an impact player. 

~G

Oh yeah, if you can get Pineda out and Roble in + more secondary pieces.. I'm ALL for that. Prioritize quality over quantity ALWAYS.
I'd go nuts on quantity if the Cards would go for that. Robles+Chavez+Peguero+Liddi+Pothyress+Saunders. It doesn't matter. I would honestly rather have Pineda than all of those guys.
Robles+Saunders+Pothyress are all interesting but with big question marks (Pothyress did have a higher IsoP on the road though). Chavez+Peguero+Liddi are longshots for me.
I'm guessing the Cards would probably insist on one of our premium guys though.

Howard also BB'ed a lot more and was in the bigs after as many minor league PAs as Chavez has had.
The reason Chavez is such a long shot IMO is because there are so few stars that actually panned out with this kind of profile. Its hard to even find average regulars that had this kind of minor league profile.

Kevin Witt ... :-)
Age 19 in A ball had 148 K and 28 walks in 119 games, and a lousy .232/.280/.397 (.677) line
Age 21 in AA, 109/44 K/BB in 127 games, but with a .289/.349/.539 (.888) line.
Had one .708 half season in pros, then flew to Japan. 
This is (I think) what Taro is getting at.  Witt, after a palatable K rate in AA, spent the rest of his career fanning once per game in AAA with low walk totals and high 20s HRs.  And it's pretty easy to find career AAA players with 30-HRs and a 1-K per game rate (with subpar walk rates), but VERY few of them make it TO the majors - much less have success there.
The high-K guys that get the call *MUST* have at least decent walk rates.  At this moment, Chavez looks a WHOLE lot like Bucky Jacobsen with fewer walks.  But, he's also low enough in the system where if he can improve EITHER his walks or his Ks, maybe he'll get a shot. 
But, if you go and scan the HR leaders in the CALL in 2005, who is on top?  Brandon Wood with 43 HRs and 128 Ks and 48 walks in 130 games.  LaHair had 22 dingers and 125/51 K/BB in 126 games back in 2005, too. 
The only success from 2005 would be Nate Shierholz - with 132/32 K/BB (and a .319 BA), who thus far is an 88 OPS+ MLB hitter.  (Nate only had 15 HRs that year - so not a perfect comp).
But, the guys who hit 30 HRs in the low minors that DO succeed almost always have significantly better walk and/or K numbers.  Honestly, you HAVE to get Chavez out of High Desert before you can even begin to assess his real potential.  Home/road splits alone don't capture the full impact of playing 1/2 your games in a place that behaves so differently than everywhere else.

You did a much better job of explaining it Sandy.. That was what I was trying to explain. Witt, naturally, was awful in the NPB too but was a AAA star.
IF Chavez improves his ratios and continues to hit in AA, then you might have something. But right now, hes just like thousands of other similar prospects who fizzle out in the majors.
Those ratios need to improve as he moves up, and thats a tough thing to do since usually they get worse if anything.

Getting better while facing harder leagues?  I guess I'm just biased because I watched it happen.
 
Wlad Balentien:
A: .16 eye, 3.4 AB:K
A+: .22 eye, 3.2 AB:K
AA: .50 eye, 3.2 AB:K
AAA: .52 eye, 4.7 AB:K
 
He made the bigs, got sent back down (now on a team that obviously is a playoff contender and didn't have a place for him) and after a terrible first half (.706 OPS while in a funk about the demotion) he roared back in the second half (1.148).  I still say he's liable to Brad Hawpe his way to a few success years between 27 and 30.
 
If you don't like him, then how about Adam Jones:
 
A: .27 eye, 4.1 AB:K
A+: .45 eye, 4.2 AB:K
AA: .46 eye, 4.8 AB:K
AAA: .35 eye, 4.3 AB:K
Bigs: .25 eye, 4.6 AB:K
 
Adam does all right in the bigs, and he never walked more in his minor or major league career than Chavez did this year.
 
Chavez:
A#1: .20 eye, 3.2 AB:K
A#2: .29 eye, 3.7 AB:K
A+: .40 eye, 4.1 AB:K
 
And again, it was .49 and 4.7 in the second half.  I'm not asking him to do anything he's not already doing - get a little better each time around. If he can keep that at the next level, he's got a shot.  If he falls back down against tougher breaking balls, it'll be hard for him to get a serious look.
 
But if Wlad can more than double his eye ratio at a harder level (and hold it) and then add 50% to his AB:K ratio the next year, why is a slight improvement for Chavez beyond the realm of reason?  From what I hear he has a better work ethic and attitude than most of our K-challenged bats.
 
I think Chavez HAS to improve to have a shot at the bigs.  This year is nice confirmation that he can, but it's not enough by itself.  But I think MLE conversions get wonky sometimes.  You can't just say "oh, 5:1 AB:K in the minors = 4 in the bigs, so we need more margin."  I'd like it, but some guys walk better in the bigs than in the minors.  Some strike out less in the bigs than in the minors, or at least don't drop like you'd expect. 
 
Yes, Chavez's identified skillset should give some pause.  But 10 more walks and 10 less Ks a year gives him a .5 eye and a 4.5 AB:K.  Just 10 more walks and 10 less Ks.  That's better than Hawpe in AAA, or Geoff Jenkins, or Cliff Floyd, or Raul Mondesi.
 
He's already done it for half a season.  Now I need to see him do it for a full season in a harder league....but it's not an impossible task.
 
~G

All of Hawpe, Jenkins, Floyd, and Mondesi had better contact rates in the minors and ALL of them were in the big leagues after this many minor league PAs.
Its just really hard to find guys that were succesful with this profile. Chavez is going to have show improvment at the AA level. Its not impossible, but its a really big long shot IMO.

Jenkins and Hawpe both had what, 700-800 at bats at big-time baseball schools (USC and LSU) playing for the college world series and getting some of the finest coaching in the land against essentially A-Ball competition.  If that "doesn't count" as some way to grow as a hitter then I don't know what to say.  Hawpe's games played between college and the end of A+ ball are basically identical to Chavez's.  But of course Hawpe had better ratios.
Floyd was in the bigs at 20...and a full time starter at 25.  But I'm sure promoting him to the bigs that early didn't hamper his development at all.
I guess we're gonna have to agree to disagree.  Chavez maintaining what he did over his last 300 ABs into his next 500 would seem to me to indicate a decent shot at major league success.  I would trade him before he has the chance to fail, in a package for a guy who has already cleared those hurdles.
But what his minor league profile shows thus far is a hitter whose ability to harness his talent was not in place when he first hit A-Ball.  That makes him not a freak of nature, but doesn't disqualify him from the bigs.  Not yet. 
~G

Ya, but you add those those college PAs and Jenkins has still graduated to the bigs before 2000 PAs. I can't find Hawpe's college stats, but adds those PAs and you're talking something around 2500 PAs.
Its not a death sentence, but just saying that the combo of Ks, BB/K, and slow progression usually doesn't pan out.

OK, not really but this isn't enough for it's own post.  Anybody else find it interesting that Halman hasn't flopped in his ML debut?  Well, at least not flopped by non-traditional stats.  I think most of us (myself included as a Halman fan) would have expected him to strike out in at least half of his initial Major League at bats (and probably more like 3/4), but he only did that the first night, and has struck out only once since then, while consistantly hitting the ball hard.  Part of me wonders if this is just somewhat lazy end of the year prep by pitchers, Halman is a nobody with a longshot to be an MLB back up so why bother checking the scouting report.  But then again, it's not like he has a unique weakness, bendy stuff down and away like most MiLB scrubs.  Looking over his pitch fx data, he has swung and missed just 13.7% of the time so far, MLB average is 18.5%.  This isn't to say that Greg Halman has suddenly, magically, and massively improved his contact abilities (his whiff percentage in Tacoma was 40%), just saying he's the last guy I would have expected to come up and have a .077/.077/.144 line (due to bad luck as opposed  to bad swinging).

Interesting...I consider him a complete write-off...but whatever floats your boat...:)