BOR: Dr's R/X

=== Ye'll 'ave No Mob Lynchings at SSI, Dept. ===

The pundits, including my fave pundits, were on the Mariners like Albert Belle with spikes high at second -- from games two and three of this season.   The offense is in the tank, this team needs help, and lo and behold, now you see it.

Logical, but let's be fair.  This article and this article demonstrate, I believe, that Jarrod Washburn could not have done much about a 2-6 start.  He had about a 30%, 40% chance of winning one of those games, taking the M's to 3-5.

Putting Adam Laroche into this lineup would also have been nice, but:  Casey Kotchman himself has a .308 OBP and a .455 SLG.  The difference between Kotchman and Laroche was not going to raise the runs-per-game from 2.6 to where it needs to be.

I wanted adds, to, but in these particular eight games, those adds might or might not have lifted us to 3-5.

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=== BOR ===

After 8 games -- the first 5% of the season -- the Four Fringers Strategy looks to be quite an overreach.

The 2009 success may have led to overconfidence in the defense and park.  It's one thing to have 1-2 fringers in the rotation, behind Felix, Bedard, and Washburn.  It's another to have 4 fringe starters in your rotation when you're going toe-to-toe for the division.  Taro called this shot correctly, it looks like.

.................

I'd get a reliable pitcher instanter, and not just because my ballclub was 2-6:  I'd get a pitcher because these four guys, as a group, are not the right stuff.   My ballclub will have two of them at most in the rotation.  And it's not okay to suspend that mandate until June -- the race could be over then.

The easiest way would be to add Shawn Kelley to the rotation.  But a Washburn-class MLB(TM) starter from anywhere would be fine.

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=== Shawn Kelley ===

Studied him Monday night with the idea of assessing the starter conversion.  Just for chuckles.  I know that nobody down here, much less Up There, is listening seriously.  But Dr. D, for one, is intrigued.

Kelley's rhythm is absolutely that of a starting pitcher.  He doesn't overstride; he doesn't hump up; he's not max-effort.  He's smooth, with a nice tempo, and even has a "rocking chair" type of bounce to his pitch sequences.

He's a control guy, not a napalm guy, and that control would do nothing but improve as he got into a sweat.

Kelley's changeup was as deadly as Jon Papelbon's offspeed pitch, and he threw it a ton on Monday.  He drew several obvious flinches from hitters as they started their FB swings off his arm action, leading to lockup called strikes right down the heart.  He also threw it down, and down and away, inducing at least two garbage swings in one inning.

Brooks had Kelley as throwing 9 changeups/sliders in a single inning.  I hope this was part of a discussion between Kelley and the coaching staff, but of course that's probably a forlorn hope.  :- ) 

In any case, once every coupla years there's an SSI Mortal Lock 1-800-PIGGOUT weekend, and Kelley's success in the rotation is one of those.  Bet yer my blog, as against a 16-game pack, on it.

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Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

1
Anonymous's picture

My RX would be to not have Rowland-Smith in the starting 5, and maybe not even in the bullpen.

3
TAD's picture

I must admit I'm intrigued to see what Kelley would do in the rotation and would have liked to see him get a little more long work during spring training.  It was almost as if Wak was somewhat apprehensive as to the potential disruption it would cause among the pitchers who were already vying for the starting positions.  Also I'm somewhat curious as who would be sent to the bullpen if this change were made - I believe either Snell or Fister’s stuff would play up in the bullpen.
Anyway I do have a little apprehension in the results you had detailed in the prior post.  My take on the change-ups he centered to a few of the batters is a little different.  Since he was pitching in relief and the hitters were only getting one look at him the element of surprise tilts in Kelley's favor, however the second or third time through the line-up the results could very well be different as they begin to recognize/anticipate his pitches (this may also occur as the season wears on and his change is not longer a novelty to the opposing teams).
Although I want to see Kelley through rose colored glasses and hope if he is ever placed in a starting position he would indeed excel - I feel the need to temper my endorsement somewhat until Kelley begins to show more control of the change-up.

4

:daps: absolutely it's an open question how well any reliever's arsenal would hold up to 35 games x 100 pitches' worth of exposure.
This last game, they didn't get a finger on his offspeed pitches, and of course nobody sustains that kind of performance with any pitch.
The fact that the hitters were whiffing on stomach-high tubed changeups doesn't tell us that they'll always do that; it tells us that he's got some smokin' arm action goin' on there.

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