Alex Liddi's Fast Start

Liddi isn't my very favorite template of player, since Dr. D's mainframe always starts with the EYE ratio...

......................

But:

1.  If Liddi is a star in AA at age 21 -- and right now he's landing with a big splash in a league full of new pitchers, so it looks verrry good for 2010 -- he'll be one of the youngest players in that league to star. 

This is 80% the same thing as saying that he'll be one of the most gifted, talented players in that league.

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2.  When asked about Mariners farmhands, Liddi is one of the two or three players that comes to Zduriencik's mind.  This "free association" reaction is one of the things SSI enjoys analyzing most.  We read Zduriencik's assessment of Liddi as very strong.

Admittedly, Zduriencik just said the other day, there's nobody on the farm who is our next Ryan Braun, or somesuch.

However, a player doesn't have to be a slam-dunk ML All-Star top-10 overall draft pick to be a blue-chip prospect.

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3.  BaseballHQ gave Liddi an "8C" grade for his performance at age 20 -- a full 50% chance of being an ML impact player.  Like, 6.0 runs per 27 at third base.

Their assessment:  "Tall and athletic IF who took advantage of his home park to lead the minors in AVG and 6th in SLG.  Possesses swing mechanics and batspeed for AVG and PWR, but strikes out in bunches and draws few BB's due to lack of plate discipline.  Soft, quick hands, strong arm, and feet make him a capable defender."

Having transitioned to AA (high minors) baseball at 21 with a 300/350/500 slash line right out of the gate, the grade goes up.  Up from 8C is runnin' with the Big Dogs. 

That's unless Liddi crashes over the next few months.  But with this type of player -- Tall, wiry strong, questionable EYE, high upside, RH third baseman, etc -- it's precisely the first month of A/AA transition where I'd be worried about him pulling a Matt Tuiasosopo and hitting .081 or something.

The aggressive Liddi's easy transition to the upper minors strongly implies a "solidness" to his game in the batter's box.

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4.  Every tools scout will tell you that Liddi is special.  For example, Baseball America has him #4 in the M's org, ahead of Triunfel for example, which is (per BaseballHQ) the strongest hitting system in the game.

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5.  Resident minors guru G-Money has noted that in Liddi's case, the EYE ratio is voluntary - a function of his aggressiveness, as opposed to a function of his poor pitch recognition.

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Liddi update:  he started the season with a 2:18 EYE -- welcome to the league -- but over his last 10 games, he has a 4:4 EYE and is hitting .432/.488/.676.  His last four games, he has 4, 2, 2, and 1 hits.

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Good stuff,

Dr D

Comments

1

I'm curious what you and everyone this of this one, especially the "last 10 games" part:
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=OF&sid=milb&...
A guy who ran 40:137 last year, and 25:128 the year before, runs off an 8:7 stretch?  If I'm doing the math right, his BB rate is up from 7% to 12% and his K rate is down from 27% to 21%.  Obviously better during this stretch.  One K in his last 6 games.
If he can turn the eye ratio around, those 49 XBH in the Midwest League at age 20 in 09 and 12 so far this year start to look pretty appealing.

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