Derek Holland went on the DL for Texas. Darvish is gonna have (and is having) his struggles. The Angels were flopping all over the field before the sort of 10 game hot-streak we're discounting for the Ms, had a catcher take a concussion DL trip after playing us, lost Weaver for a couple of weeks and who knows how effective he'll be when he gets back. Like you said, the Bo Sox are scuffling, and the Ms are starting to believe they can play.
And they're doing it on the road. Last year? 39-45 at home, 28-50 on the road. This year it's 9-13 at home and 17-20 on the road. Yes, we've played 15 more road games than home games, and played them at last year's home-game pace.
Take out some blown saves and they're better than .500 on the road. Pryor is an 800 lb gorilla in the back yard, and Wilhelmsen is taking to this closing thing nicely. A 100 mph fireman AND a 97 MPH closer with a deadly curve? Nice.
We had another 99 MPH fireman hanging out in the upper minors just waiting for a call, you say? Crazy! Not to mention some good/great starters.
I get it if we're not willing to make an 8 digit lapse in judgment like the Giants did with Lincecum. Wait a week and postpone all his arb money wins a year, plus their compounded effect on his salary from there out? The offense they needed to defend their title was wrapped up in his salary.
So there's a smart component to that. But we have multiple pitchers who need to go down, and Erasmo was already up this year to start his clock so we weren't worried about it then. He's got a 1.35 ERA in his last 2 starts, fully stretched out, with 15K against 2 BB. He's ready.
But we're not calling him back. Even our awesome new fireman can't put out all the fires Noesi and Beavan are starting, so why not see if another pitcher is less flammable? Why is staying safe the better plan?
The offense is finding some swagger (Kyle Seager's charge up that machine gun hill has been impressive, especially now that his comrades are taking up arms and following him) and the wild card hasn't gotten away from us. Is there a LOT of competition for it this year? Sure.
But that just means the peloton is within reach, and anybody can make a run once they join the pack with all the competitors in it. Climb that mountain, Mariners, put some legs into it. We've got plenty of stages left in this season to make it interesting, and you don't have to burn a redshirt on Hultzen as your only way to do it.
~G
(enough of a barrage of clashing sports imagery for ya there?)
..........................
=== Und Take Zis Mit You, Dept. ===
... after Seager's GWRBI in the top of the 6th, the Angels rolled their eyes at the cute li'l M's and prepared their answer. Leadoff man, base hit. Second man, base hit. M's up one, true, but there's the tying run and there's the lead run, brother. Let's get this over with and then you guys can fly out and console yourself with your one win in the series.
Except Eric Wedge brought in Steven Hyde, er, Jekyll, er, Pryor ... it's late here. Howie Kendrick topped a ball to Justin Smoak who started a gorgeous 6-3-..... PRYOR'S THERE! BEE YOO TEE FUL! And the M's ran laughing off the field, pumping their fists, high fiving... reminded me of a few of these recent upstart U.S. soccer teams, Brek Shea diving a header for a goal and getting up pumping his fist and screaming in the faces of his world-superstar enemies.
.
=== Follow On ===
Michael Saunders, on the postgame, made a remark that would have slipped by you if you'd blinked. "Guys are walking around the clubhouse smiling" and ... now they are starting to believe.
On the PREgame, Eric Wedge made a remark that would have slipped by if you'd blinked. Hey, the beatings we've put on some people this road trip, in their house, these kids are starting to realize what they can do. We're comin' home a different team, sez Sgt. Wedge. Take 10 seconds and ponder the possibility that he's correct.
New ideas can be fun, LrKrBoi29 ... so ponder. Supposing that Wedge has a few light bulbs on that we don't. Sounds farfetched, but suppose that this were one of them: Wedge saw his team evolved this road trip. What then?
In the previous series, the White Sox held onto a win like a cat hanging onto a screen door by its claws. Their manager Robin Ventura -- practically gasping with the stress right after the game -- said man! Those guys are like a New York cockroach. You can't kill 'em and make 'em stay dead.
Sometimes this kind of chatter is noise. Sometimes it's not. This would be the latter. On Wednesday, Mariners played better than the Angels, deserved to win, and did win. They didn't "come away with series wins" in Texas and LA. The Mariners went into the Rangers' and Angels' houses and kicked their keisters.
We don't say that the M's are better than the Angels; we say that they went in and kicked their cans. Been awhile. Live with it, cynics, distasteful as it seems: the M's are getting good.
...................
Responsible Journalists, even if they be writing for a blog with a couple of dozen readers ;- ) will emphasize dutifully that the 2012 M's have been hot before, and then fallen back ... sure they have. Growing pains. There is a difference between "growing pains" and "we scored 513 runs this year."
The Mariners are one Mike Carp hot streak away from being one of the toughest-hitting teams in baseball. Man, picture the batting order 1-8 if Carp were slugging .500+. Anyway: this road trip, the Mariners' self-image evolved. Let's not fail to perceive such an important milestone.
.
=== Sabertista Go Home, Dept. ===
Kyle Seager is hitting .389/.433/.648 with runners in scoring position. With two outs and RISP? Make that .394/.444/.697.
It's one thing to say "take a traditional stat with perspective," but sabertistas don't say that. What they say is, "RISP hitting stats contain no useful information."
Kyle Seager's RISP stats have contained useful information. He was the first Mariner of his generation to step out into the street and challenge Texas and L.A. to a fistfight. He did that, has been doing it for two months, and then Michael Saunders joined in. And then Justin Smoak. And now they all do it.
.
=== Five Games Out ===
Despite their unlucky W/L record, M's are -5.5 out of the second Wild Card spot, if you assume Baltimore is no issue, which I do. The Red Sox have real issues. The Angels have real issues. If you're the sort of person who gives up when -5 behind, after 1/3 of the baseball season, we cordially invite you to frequent other blogs.
Saunders took the initiative to bring this up on his postgame. We're not out of it here. It's early. We're going after 'em.
If that doesn't resonate with you, why do you watch baseball? The Mariners have a better shot than we thought, and their players wanna go get it. Dare to nonconform, babe. Decide for yourself whether to watch the standings. Do what you want, whether other people like it or not.
.
=== Bah Humbug Finish ===
Dr. D has no doubt that the Erasmo Ramirez, Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, and Carter Capps Super Two decisions are made above Jay-Z's pay grade. As a baseball fan, I don't have to like it. Those pitchers would earn that extra $2-4M in salary this June.
The kids wanna go to war. You got a bunch of lefty hitters in your K-9 unit, snarling, barking, and straining at their leashes. Dispatch ain't going to radio for pitching backup?
.
BABVA,
Jeff
Comments
Huge difference between the streak this year and last. I was the first to call baloney on the Ms last year. This year is a different story.
The Ms hitting has legitimately improved. They are a true talent .500 team RIGHT NOW and will probably only get better. Great room for improvement in the pitching, Guti over Figgins, etc.
Completely agree the Ms offense is improved.
Completely agree that there are possibilities to fix some of the problems in the pitching area.
But ...
the Ms are 13th in OBP (.297) ... 22 points under league average.
the Ms are 12th in slugging (.380) .. 27 points under league average.
the Ms are 13th in OPS and OPS+
the Ms are 9th in runs per game.
The Angels, who have a .700 OPS have a R/G of 3.91 and the Twins at .697 have an R/G of 4.00.
The Ms ... off an OPS of .677 have a R/G of 4.25.
The reality that no Mariners fan wants to admit to is that the Mariners offense has been very, very, very lucky in turning its productive at bats into runs.
The Ms "need" to get better just to stay at the same run producing level they have shown thus far.
We scored 124 runs in May – more than any month in the last 2 seasons. We scored just 94 runs in March/April, but that was still the 4th best run-scoring month in 2+ years. We’ve got 33 runs on the board in June and are trying to set another high.
You could call that luck, or growth.
OPS of players 25 and under:
2010: .606 in 11.8% of team plate appearances (.637 team OPS)
2011: .687 in 33.8% of team plate appearances (.640 team OPS)
2012: .730 in 55.4% of team plate appearances (.677 team OPS)
Getting better AND younger is hard to do. Have I mentioned that our # of PAs by 25-and-unders is far and away the league’s most? From eighth to first: San Diego (30.3%), Toronto (32%), KC (33.9%), Arizona (34.2%), San Fran (36.4%) Atlanta (36.5%), Houston (41.6%)… and then Seattle’s 55.4%.
We are running on 25% more Youth Power than any other team in the league - far and away the youngest offense, youngest MOTO, youngest whatever.
I expected them to start out struggling and hoped we wouldn’t crush them with expectations they couldn’t meet, but they’re coming along. Even if their “luck” takes a step back they’ll still be better (and younger) than they were two years ago.
But I’d prefer to see them keep revving the engine on the offense instead, and a reduction in runs/OPS points won't matter much if the OPS points keep climbing.
BTW, is there a veteran in this world somewhere who could be added to this team at some point in the next 18 months who would retain the ability to hit? Our lack of vet production over the last 3 years is flat-out staggering.
~G
Though that is talking about all of 2012, and the M's are indisputably on an arc up...
On the other hand, their OPS+ is 94 and their ERA+ 91, so not yet time for ol' Dr. D to get too shticky :- )
Three True Outcomes: 8th, 8th, and 14th in the league in BB, HR, and K offensively... 6th, 13th, and 8th in BB, HR and K defensively.
nm
In the post-PED era, (talented) youth will be the new Moneyball.
Once you park-adjust:
131 = Saunders OPS+
127 = Jaso
126 = Seager
105 = Montero
99 = Ackley
95 = Liddi
94 = Smoak
92 = Ichiro
91 = Wells
..........
Contrast 2010, in which only Ichiro had an OPS+ above... wait for it ... 87.
Twelve players in 2010 with 150+ PA's, and two of them broke 90. (Branyan also broke 90 in 57 games, 1/3 of a season, for us.)
The 2012 Mariners have nine batters who are, not statistically but on the field, solid hitters. That doesn't yet count Mike Carp.
The last month they've scored 5 runs per game, 124 runs in 25 games. The #3 team in the AL right now, behind the teams that play in Texas and Boston, is Toronto, scoring 4.8 per game. It's no exaggeration to say that the last 3-4 weeks, the Seattle Mariners' offense is one of the toughest in baseball to consistently suppress.
..........
The reality that saber-only analysts don't want to admit to is that --- > it's important to watch the games. Especially if you're going to drive into the paint with your head down.
;- )
This team is absolutely locked in right now. I don't know if it's swagger or not but they are focused like a laser beam. A six-man no hitter? Are you kidding me?
They're clearly out there playing to win, expecting to win... whatever cliche you wanna put on it, I'll take it over 2010-11.