Seattle Sports Insider

POTD Luke French - er, Aaron Laffey

Posted by

3/2/11

Q. Lookout Landing came up with Horacio Ramirez. You think?

A. Great comp. Especially the bogus idea that baseball had, about maybe groundballs saving a 1:1 CTL pitcher in this template. People (including the great Bobby Cox) also thought this about Ramirez.

Groundballs are fine, but they're not going to bail out this family of pitchers ("Should Be Flipping Burgers" family).

You know what, sabermetrically it's a real good comp, because there is one (1) (uno) thing to smile about in Laffey's record: his HR rate.

Q. Is that SSI's comp?

A. At the SSI booth here in ComiCon 2011, we'll still hand out the French 8x10 glossies, because:

They are three-pitch lefties who mix them real well
They both have terrible fastballs
What potential they have is rooted in their curve balls

As you know, SSI is actually very impressed with French's #2. (Yes, that's a restaurant label.) The question with French is whether he can assemble a coherent ML game off that cheerful deuce he has ... and the beauty of it, is that French doesn't appear to know that the curve is his only good pitch.

We pulled up some vid on Laffey and .... yes, he's terrible and he's not going anywhere. But the curve actually has real nice deception. High front side, great arm speed ... nice bite on it usually, but the change-speed is the drop of poison in Laffey's curve.

...............

We go over to FanGraphs and sho' nuff, his fastball gets pounded but his slider has a plus value in every year he's pitched.

Don't get excited. His fatball (no spelling error, editor) clocks all of 86 miles per hour. Um, no.

Q. Which comp would be more favorable to Laffey?

A. If you think the defining characteristic is the groundballs, then Laffey is Horacio II. If you think the calling-card hook is the defining characteristic, then go with French II.

Ramirez never had a shot; French has something to build on. If you like French, then don't give up on Laffey right away. The kid does hide the ball well, almost Sherrill-well.

Q. Whose curve is better? Laffey's, or French's?

A. French's is much better. Luke French has a legit plus-plus yellow hammer; Laffey's is merely interesting.

Aaron Laffey is Luke French, minus one "plus" on the curve ball. I suggest you just stick with French...

Q. Yeah, but what did Laffey cost the M's.

A. Well, nothing... he's going to absorb Cheney R&D time that could be given to pitchers who might get good.

Q. Is Capt Jack still great?

A. Very. Take it out of his Justin Smoaks and James Paxtons.

Cheerio,

Jeff

Comments

Not quite HoRam

I wouldn't say he's HoRam...
Two reasons:
1) Laffey's been beating DIPS consistently in the majors - his K/BB is not good, his GB/FB helps, but not enough to make him GOOD...but...his hit rate isn't high enough given the low Ks...his ERAs are always tolerable...they should be TERRIBLE.
2) He's done this in the AL, not the early-2000s NL...so he's not fattening up against the other pitchers. HoRam had an OPS of .809 against non-pitchers in the NL. Laffey has an OPS of .760. In the AL. And that doesn't appear to be lucky...he really does limit XBH.

The HR and XBH thing baffles me

Laffey is actually okay against LH hitters. Not great, but okay. 2:1 control with a few Ks...he can survive there by anyone's estimation.
What I can't understand is how he can pitch for several years - including an injured season where his FB is Jamie-Moyer level minus or WORSE - and not get clubbed out of the park by RH hitters.
He's not fooling them. 226 innings vs. righties: 10.3 hits, 3.5 K, 3.9 BB/9...and his HR per 9 is just 0.63? Less than 28% extra-base hits all told?
To pull a random good year for a soft-tosser, Jamie Moyer in 2002 had a 3.32 ERA (4.03 FIP) and a changeup with enormous value. That weapon was still working at peak efficiency. He gave up 35% XBHs and .91 HR/9 to righties (which are his STRONGER side since he's a changeup pitcher).
A pitcher with better pure stuff? Felix had 3 plus weapons last year and was fairly unhittable. His HR/9 for that season matches the VERY hittable Laffey, as does his XBH percentage - exactly.
So Laffey gives up far more hits, but no more hard hits (percentage-wise) than a Cy young winner brimming with weapons, and is far better at those stats than one of the greatest deception-pitchers in history.
What in the world is Laffey doing out there to keep his head above water against righties? Is it all random luck and a house of cards about to fall down around his ears, or something else?
I'm not impressed at all with the addition - and I have to say, the dozens of NRIs we added must be making a huge negative impression for us to need to make a trade to add another #5 arm to the mix - but what is Jack seeing that makes him want this guy?
Maybe it is a shot at Luke French 2.0...but what did he expect Luke French 1.0 to do that he is not doing?
~G

oops

I forgot to check GB/FB...I thoguht Laffey was a groundballer...he's not.
This is truly confusing. LOL

More Laffey

They've announced he will be exclusively in relief, so he's competing with Jimenez, Paredes, French-and-Olson-upon-Failing-to-Make-the-Rotation and We-Just-Won't-Have-a-Lefty-in-the-Pen (last year's winner, if I recall).
Laffey claims he can hit 92 or 93 if used only in relief (if I'm reading Baker right). Hasn't done it in the past because of being moved back and forth, he says.
Dave Cameron is rather more optimistic, so long as Laffey doesn't face many RH batters. His K/BB is 2.23 vs. LH and 0.90 and getting worse vs. RH. Mostly because the slider is a real weapon against LH but not RH.
And, ghost, I think he is a groundball specialist.

If so...

...then why was G talking about him running HUGE flyball rates (worse than Moyer)?
The data I can find from fangraphs suggests he's getting 1.7 GB per fly these days, but when he was healthy, it was over 3. So he *IS* a groundball pitcher...which...would explain the low XBH rates at least partially (though there was a point raised that his low XBH rates were comparable to Felix Hernandez'...which makes very little sense.

First guess: Washburn syndrome

Wash always got strangely un-dangerous contact off pitches that looked like they should be upper-deck jobs... Inside Pitch called it "that little hop on his fastball" ... he could pump 87 fastballs in there pitch after pitch, and get skied fly balls one after the other...
Laffey does visually appear to me to have some of this; his motion is funky, the release is funky (and deceptive) and the flight of the ball looks knuckleballish...
*Possible* that his ball just moves in enough of an unorthodox way to help him out with the squareness of the contact...
.....................
Great catch on the XBH/BABIP ratio G. If Laffey ever sees time in the bullpen, maybe you can track that for us.

Great announcement!

LOL...
All* left hand pitchers are fine vs LHB's ... if they're even in AAA, they've got enough to their games, that L-on-L they can post (say) 250/320/399 lines...
The problem is that if it's not a 1-batter situation, they're still going to wind up facing 50% righties...
...................
Still, the M's have been scraping the mayo jar for a lefty reliever, so if they can talk Laffey into throwing a huge % of sliders, he may be able to fill a void for a few months...

Meant fastball not flyball

Sorry bout that, I got caught in my own shorthand. When a guy throws an 81 MPH fastball (apparently due to injury) and has no changeup to speak of, I'm amazed he can keep the GB rates up and the XBH rates in the basement.
He IS normally a huge groundballer, which is part of why his hit rate is so high (more flyballs = more HRs given up, more grounders = more hits normally).
And I have no problem with him being used against lefties. We could use an sort of decent LOOGY, no doubt.
He's still a strange pitcher. :)
~G

Could probly get you an admin key G

So you could edit your posts and step around some of the annoyances that occasionally afflict...

I'd have to be able to sign

I'd have to be able to sign in first. It tells me none of my email addresses are registered for this site, but the CAPCHA I enter is apparently wrong 50 times in a row, so I can't make a new one with any of those emails either.
Somethin' weird there. ;) So currently I'm just posting as a visitor.
~G

And quite a visitor you are...

I'll see whether the admin's can do anything about the problemo you describe. Will ask about an edit key for you too, Spec.

oh FB = fastball...not flyball...LOL

My bad, G. I gotcha now. Yes...how did he keep the ball down throwing 84 mph for an injury-plagued year.
Actually, Doc, the injuries probably help to explain the drop in BPV, right? I mean when he broke in with Cleveland, his BPV was plenty good enough for a back-ender...it just took a dive later...perhaps the league booked him as a starter too.
But as a lefty set-up guy...maybe he can be Sherrill-like...his velo and slider are similar to Sherrill's with the deception also being similar.

A failed LH starter with low

A failed LH starter with low HR rates? Sounds like the ideal guy to take a shot on for a bullpen role.

Like Olson, French and co. ? :- )

Question is, what Laffey could do, that French and Olson and probably 5 other guys couldn't do better...
If the M's like Laffey's little nickel curve, why not give French a shot at the lefty role ...
But yeah Grizzle...

we have actual data for Laffey

Career vs. LHB: .721 OPS
Career vs. RHB: .775 OPS
The data suggests he's not much better vs. lefties than righties. That may be partially because he's been trying to use a starter's rhythm or partially because he's not been healthy enough to snap off the slider well?
But thus far, I think French is a better bet to be a good LOOGY than Laffey.