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In the seven posts below (gasp, wheeze) Dr. D lays out his personal theory on Player Families as they are helpful to sabermetrics. He supposes that, logically, you'd read those first, and then this one. But hey, it's a free country.
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=== Ackley's Defining Attributes ===
In a think-tank spirit -- and in fun -- SSI proposes the following set of "irreducibly complex" attributes for Dustin Ackley. For a player to comp to Ackley, it says here, he must have all of these attributes, and need have no others.
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=== 1. Plus-plus-plus HIT Ability ===
We all watched as Dustin Ackley arrived in the big leagues, and connected with the pitch on the first 25, or something, pitches that he saw. Edgar Martinez, and Ichiro, don't seem to have been able to bisect the ball any better than Ackley does.
Now, here's a delicious problem. Ackley's strikeout rate was 21%, similar to that of Mark Trumbo, Jason Bay, and even Mike Cameron.
Here's an example where the machine lets you down. If you just set a machine to return batters with 20-22% K rates, you're going to get a lot of batters who are a whale of a lot worse at hitting than Dustin Ackley is.
It says here that Ackley's hyper-aggressiveness camoflages his HIT ability. ... admittedly, Ackley's Swinging Strike %, that being 6%, is a better reflection. Still, Willie Bloomquist and Magglio Ordonez matched Ackley's SwStr%.
IMHO, it's not as simple as using a database to match stats with Ackley. We're going to intuitively "filter" Ackley's HIT ability so that it is matched by players like Edgar Martinez and Ichiro.
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=== 2. Plus-plus Ball-Strike Recognition ===
See the above section.
We all watched Ackley -- right from his first plate appearance in Safeco -- recognize non-strikes and step out on the pitch halfway through the flight of the ball.
Ackley's swing rate on non-strikes was 23.8%. An excellent total, comparable to that of Kevin "Greek god of Walks" Youkilis and ... John Jaso. Jaso's swing rate on non-strikes exceeds even Ackley's.
Do you agree? If you show me a hitter who fishes for balls outside the zone, that's not an Ackley comp.
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=== 3. Small Player ===
Shin-Soo Choo is listed by PECOTA as one of Dustin Ackley's closest comps.
There are tons of great similarities here. The K% is right on. The BB% is right on. The lefthandedness.* The stroke. A lot of things.
The problem is that Shin-Soo Choo is a very strong man. He hit a ball 500' over the Cheney fence once, and he used to throw 95 mph as a pitcher. Dustin Ackley has a noodle arm.
The "phenotype" crosses Choo completely off the list, I think. For Dustin Ackley, you need players without much physical strength, and preferably without a very good arm.
Choo gets his ISO up to .180, .200, and so becomes a 300/400/500 slugging All-Star. If Ackley does that, he'll make the Hall of Fame easily.
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=== 4. Aggressiveness on the Swing ===
One thing that is strange about Ackley, is how viciously hard he swings the bat, despite being a small man. As we discussed in June 2011, Ackley gets more bat wrap than any other major player that I've noticed. See also this article.
You've got an Edgar Martinez-type hitter, great contact ability, great eye -- and yet he attacks the ball like Ken Griffey Jr.
This is going to reflect in the profile, too. As compared to Tony Gwynn or Wade Boggs, Ackley is sacrificing EYE to gain PWR.
For me, that's a defining characteristic.
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[See next]
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Doc...when confronted with a guy who has a SwS% of 6% and a Z-CT% of >90%...and yet a K rate as high as Ackley's in 2011, it seems to me that the most logical explanation was that Ackley was taking too many strikes LOOKING. That's not hyper-aggressiveness. That's hyper-selectivity.
...Ackley's super-vicious swing isn't that dissimilar to another scrappy second baseman without much size. Dustin Pedroia. I think Pedroia is close to an Ackley comp.
For me, a defining characteristic of both Ackley and Carp would be "adaptive intelligence". For me, both are examples of players with the willingness AND ability to alter their approaches. This creates in both an ability to not only improve, but to dial between skills until they find an optimal combination.
Attempting to "familiarize?" Ackley and Carp based on their tiny MLB samples is questionable at best. Better to concentrate on the large samples from the minors and then try and adjust for the reality in the majors (IMHO).
Ackley has a horrid K rate *ONLY* if one looks exclusively at his 376 MLB PAs. His 162 game pace is 142 Ks. But, he only had 117 Ks in 918 minor league PAs. Yes, the competition may be tougher - but even as limited as his minor league lines are, Ackley showed this change just from his first 52 games in 2010 and his 66 games in 2011 - both in Tacoma: BB/K = 20/38 in 2010 ... BB/K = 55/38 in 2011.
In his UNC Bio it notes "modeled his game after Pete Rose". As a Freshman in 2007, he his .402 with 10-HR and 30-BB in about 330 PAs. He fanned only 21 times. In 2009, .417 with 22-HR and 50 BB but his whiffs increased to 34. Consider that college ratio - 22-HR to 34-SO.
The true difficulty in "familiarizing" guys like Ackley and Carp ... with histories showing major swings in "skill" rates ... is that it is very reasonable to believe that eventually they will maximize the combination. Ackley could (based on history) drop his K-rate drastically if he wanted to surrender some power. His 2011 MLB numbers (and his vicious swing) suggest he was attempting to maximize his power. (His swing in 2010 with West Tenn was not what I would call vicious).
My call on Carp was based not on skill - but on evidence of skill 'change'. I classify Ackley in that camp ... and after examining his college numbers, I'm higher on Seager than I was previously was, too in regards to adaptability.
I agree that if you're going to stick Carp in a family the 'latest' stats are better than using an aggregate. But, at the same time, this largely ignores adaptability as an actual skill. Attempting to discern 'random' fluctuation from skill change via intent is a formidable undertaking. But, exactly what is the proper way to resolve Ackley's minor league 130/117 BB/K ratio with his 40/79 Majors line? His first 237 PAs in AAA showed a similar 1:2 ratio - but his next 300 PAs in AAA he was back at 55:38 (3:2).
As for comps for Ackley ... how about J.D. Drew. All his injuries screw up his profile ... but a 6'1" 200 pound lefty with some speed doesn't sound far off.
And maybe a little of the "rookie schooling" by the umps. Anyway, he seems pretty smart... if that's a problem, he should adjust.
Here I was using "aggressiveness" as it relates to the swing attack only, whereas it's more usual to use that to refer to (an Ichiro-like) attack early in the count.
So, a refinement: "Little LH Edgars with the SWINGS Up to 11" :- )
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In a big player, like Jim Thome, this would make him a Three True Outcomes guy. Coming from a speedy player -- work the count and then take a mighty rip -- am not sure what to call that. Curtis Granderson's kind of like that, right ...
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It's also misleading of me to say that Ackley takes a *vicious* swing. He takes a very long, leveraged 1-wood swing, like Nick Franklin.
Good stuff ...
Of course Pedroia keeps the K's low, doesn't have the great selective-ness at the plate ... swings at 43% of all offerings vs. Ackley's 39% and the league 46% ... Pedroia swings at 28% of pitches outside the zone, Ackley 23%, league 30%...
This is partly influenced by another important difference, RH vs LH ...
But of course you are never going to get a perfect match :- ) Dr D will mess around and create a "family" of which Ackley is the only member!
Like the Pedroia comp. Think that one has legs.
:cpoints:
Especially because of the other-worldly 15% swing rates on non-strikes. :- )
You've also got the super-graceful lefty swing and a number of other matches. Wow. Great suggestion.
Ackley = J.D. Drew with a bit less power and a bit more speed?
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The rest of it should be a front-page post... may try to 'roundtable' it ...
Drew is a nice fit.
But I still think Joe Morgan is really the best template. I think you just look at Morgan and say that Ackley is some percentage of that player. Say, 90% or so.
Ackley, up for 376 PA's, goes .273-.348-.417, 40BB's/79K's, 16-7-6 in x-base hits.
Morgan, in his first full season (708 PA's) goes .271-.373-.418, 97BB's/77K's, 22-12-14 in x-base hits.
Ackley K's considerably more, but the walk rates are not wildly different (10.7% to 13.6%). Lets see what the next 332 PA's for Ackley look like. I'll bet his K rate starts moving down and the walk rate up a bit.
Is Ackley likely to be Morgan? Nope. But, as rookies, they have quite similar numbers. Ackley, btw, is 6'1 and 185. That's just about what Mays and Aaron were. He's not really little guy. When he's 28 he'll be 6'1 and 200. But Ackley seems a bit smaller and Morgan seemed bigger than he was, perhaps an important dissimilarity between them.
And Doc, for some reason, I keep thinking that Ackley reminds me of Bob Watson, from the other side of the plate. Maybe I'm just stuck on old Astros, but for some reason that comparison seems decent. Now they were different templates perhaps, but in body size a young Ackley compares to a young Watson (I was so stuck here I looked it up). Watson was known as the Baby Bull becasue he swung hard with a huge bat, but mostly he was a doubles hitting high avg., high OBP guy. Career .295-.364-.447.
I can't quite remember his swing, but I'm brain locked on him. Could be wrong.
Remember him Doc? If Watson turns out to be the hitting template for Ackley we should all squeal with glee right now.
I like Morgan as a template for one (of several) possible outcomes for Ackley.
I think Ackley "could" turn into Morgan. Before his Junior year at UNC, Dustin was not attempting to employ his power. He was making contact and avoiding Ks. But, I don't think that is the route he (or the org) is after.
I think just about everyone is under-estimating Ackley's power. Example - UNC 2009.
66-G; 266-AB; 111-H; 18-2B; 4-3B; 22-HR; .417/.512/.763
66-G; 262-AB; 103-H; 26-2B; 4-3B; 6-HR; .393/.487/.592
The first line is Ackley. The second is Kyle Seager.
Projecting Seager as a doubles machine (he had 46 doubles 2 triples and 10 HRs this season in his minors/majors combined line, btw), is perfectly reasonable.
Projecting Ackley as 'only' a doubles guy, (33/10/15 in 2011), is (IMHO), not. As a Junior, Ackley hit HRs at three times the rate Seager did. Or, is everyone who has watched both Seager and Ackley at the plate really of the opinion that the LH Ackley and the RH Seager are both destined to be 10 (ish) HR hitters?
I don't see Ackley as Morgan because Morgan had a table-setters mentality and approach his entire career. He hit leadoff and #2 except for a 3 year span in the mid-70s, and he was even stealing 60 bases a season when batting third.
I don't believe Ackley is content with setting the table. I think he wants to be (and will be) a significant RBI force. I think his rookie stats were probably a little lower than they should've been because he was rushing his own development a bit. He was already attempting to engage his power game before having the time to adapt to the MLB pitching realities while using his stronger natural abilities (pitch recognition and contact).
I think Ackley "wants" to be Bobby Abreu more than he wants to be Joe Morgan. I think his goal is to become a 30/30 guy. He wants to do what Jacoby Ellsbury did this year ... but do it every year. And this is why picking his familiy is so problematic. Ackley has *already* shown super-human eye - HR power (22 HRs in 66 games Junior year) - ability to steal (43 of 57 SBs in 207 college game).
Maybe he only makes it to a 20/20 guy. There are no guarantees. But I think it is important to remember that he has done everything so far with his bat while simultaneously learning a new position on the field - and one of the most difficult.
I think Ackley will hit homers, but he's not going to be a year in and year out 30 tater guy.
Watson was a 30 double/18 homer type of guy. Ackely will top that double total on a regular basis, but 18 homers seems like a nice yearly number. It might be 15, maybe 20.
I think he's a special player. A mini-Morgan, as it were. Had he played a full season he had a ROY type year.
His average goes up this year, his ISO does too, K's drop and walks go up.
Bet'cha.
moe
I agree with every one of your 2012 assessments.
Not saying he "will" become a Chipper Jones. But, I think he has the underlying skill set where it is more possible than is generally accepted. I get the concensus view is Ackley's power tops out in the high teens. I get that given the common failure rates regarding prospects, expecting 18 HRs a year is more realistic.
All that said - I believe, given what he did as a Junior at UNC, that the concensus is wrong. I think Ackley has a greater inate power foundation than is generally believed. Perhaps I'm under-appreciating the impact of the metal bats. Perhaps the concensus is over-stating that impact. But I watched Ackley jump from 10 HRs to 22 HRs per 66 games. That wasn't a fluke. That was a choice and successful development.
I think Seager tops out at 10-15 HRs with a ton of doubles. That projection makes perfect sense to me. But given the inate difference in underlying skills between Seager and Ackley, if one expects Seager to top out at 10-15 HRs, I just find it hard to accept that Ackley tops out at 17-22. The delta in ability is just too great.
We're talking prospects - and final determinations will come years from now. I've always been low on Smoak and high on Ackley. Time will tell the tale.
....would be the injuries.
Failed to reach 425 AB's *every* season (majors and minors) until age 28.
Don't think you can comp Drew to anyone without that being the primary consideration.
If we're talking only at the plate, then Ackley / Morgan is an interesting comp. If we include baserunning and defense, Ackley is unlikely to approach Morgan's prowess in the either department.
I agree with Sandy that Ackley appears to be cut from a different bolt of cloth than Morgan.
One thing we should bear in mind is that Morgan's offense went into the stratosphere when his context shifted from the Astro's lineup to the Big Red Machine. With Houston his best full-time season he produced a 132 OPS+. His first season in Cincy he put up a 149, then proceeded to reel off years of 154, 159, 169, and 186. The record here is illustrative of what happened in Boston in the 2000's once they assembled an offensive machine.
I didn't get to see much of Abreu when he was younger, though I was aware of him. His frame now, of course, doesn't look anything like Ackley. But production-wise, he seems a better comp at the plate (along with Utley).
The good news is, whatever the comp, we all have a treat coming as we watch this kid's career take off.
is the idea here.
True enough, that if you're going to comp somebody to Erik Bedard, you'd better have durability in the equation.
...Petey isn't a perfect comp...but he's light-weight, takes a hard swing, and has about the same ISO and HIT skill as Ackley (minus the pure contact percentage...which suggests he doesn't cover the ball QUITE as well...)
In terms of historical comps, you'll find more guys in the deadball era than the modern era.
The fun part about all these comps that Ackley actually looks like he might have the skillset to comp to:
Production-ish comps for Ackley (excluding handedness):
LOW: Matt Lawton, Ray Durham, Steve Finley
MID: Mark Grace, Paul Monitor, Robin Ventura
HIGH: Eddie Murray, Bobby Abreu, Carl Yastrzemski
I called him “Olerud with wheels” in college, which fits the MID projection too. The problem with the “high” comps is it’s really hard to get positionally correct for Ackley, who is now a legit 2B/CF, which is why Biggio works as a comp for a MID as well. Those big guys don't run like Dustin can run.
But if you had someone who WAS positionally correct, they’re the 24th best player of all time (Yaz) on B-R. Or the 59th, as Biggio is rated. Molitor played a lot of 3rd and some 2nd before all that DH time, so he works positionally too – and he’s 55th.
If he went to a corner instead, well...Grace is #190. Robin Ventura, another MID comp and the college player of the decade before Ackley was, is #191.
So Ackley doing just what I EXPECT him to do is a top 200-ish player all time (not really, since that list is skewed towards modern players that have been seen by the voters, but still). At his 2B position? More like 50th. And Ackley reaching all of his potential is an inner-circle HOFer, first ballot phenomenon and icon if he does it at a glove position like Yaz did.
There are 10 players in history with an OPS+ of greater than 120 who played even 60% of their games at 2nd base. (My MID comps for Ackley were all about 120 career).
There are just FOUR over 130: Nap Lajoie, Eddie Collins, Joe Morgan and Rogers Hornsby.
If Ackley hits like Chase Utley for his career he’s gonna be a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. If CHASE UTLEY keeps hitting like Chase Utley he’ll be a HOFer – I think injuries are gonna cut him off, but he’s had a legitimately HOF peak the last few years.
It’s the reason I thought the move to 2B was a genius one for Ackley if we were gonna keep Guti in CF: Ackley at a glove position is an All-Star even at a LOW projection. At a HIGH one they’ll write songs about him and carve his face on the side of a Mariners Mt. Rushmore.
~G
It's almost hard to visualize him not having an HOF-type career. I mean, he could, obviously, but right at the moment it's hard to see what that would look like...
You've pointed out the 2B HOF bars a coupla times, and it resonates more each time bro' ...