Votto for Pineda: MEH! Double MEH!!
Volstad (for goodness sake)!: Not even worth a meh.
Guys...go take a look at Roger Clemens' seasons. On a H/9innings, WHIP, K's/9 and K/BB basis, Pineda's rookie season compares quite nicely to almost all of them. Really! I'm not making this stuff up.
In 1985, would you have traded a 22 yr old Clemens for Eddie Murray (who at 29 was a year older than Votto...but had been a major star for a longer time and is HoF stuff)?
It's a pretty fair historical comparison. Really! I'm not making this stuff up.
OK, Pineda may not be Clemens, but it's unlikely that Votto produces as well as Murray, from here on out. Ask any GM in the game if they would rather have Votto for $14 gabillion for five years, or Pineda for $9.98x5.
Pineda AND a nice piece for Votto? C'mon! What would Bill the Cat say to that? Ack! Ack! Ack! Ack! Votto AND Cueto for Pineda would be closer to a fair deal for the M's.
Hey man, I remember and loved Eddie Murray, but gimme The Rocket!
Whew......now my rant over. I feel better.
moe
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Disagreement is one thing, propaganda another.
Propaganda being, by definition, the attempt to influence thinking through repetition and authority, rather than through information and logic.
We've heard it said, many dozens of times -- and we heard it again this week -- that Michael Pineda cannot get major league lefthanders out. Worse, a large number of people are having their thinking influenced through this dogged repetition.
Here's some information:
- .237 / .296 / .357 - Pineda, 2011 vs LH's
- .252 / .314 / .349 - Felix, 2011 vs LH's
And here's some logic: Felix, in year 7 of his career!, had as many "issues vs lefties" as Pineda did. If you don't consider Felix to be a pitcher vulnerable to lineup-stacking, then neither should you look at Pineda that way.
.........
I saw that bit where the locals called for replacing Pineda with Chris Volstad, who is "another starter with issues vs lefties" - Volstad was blasted for a .305 / .367 / .542 ! line against LHB's last year.
We got it half right: Chris Volstad has an ugly flaw, that you can stack lefties on him. But Michael Pineda was one of the BEST power RHP in the league against lefties last year. And there is a reason for that.
..........
Dr. D *reaallllly* doesn't care for this ongoing propaganda about Pineda's splits.
Be aware that Pineda is not going to have "issues vs lefties" in 2012, either. They are NOT going to "figure out" how to deal with Pineda's game, any more than they "figured out" Curt Schilling's or Roger Clemens' games.
.
=== From Field Level ===
Michael Pineda's "slider" isn't a telegraphed, sloppy little two-plane nickel curve. It does not break down-and-in to lefties' wheelhouses.
Michael Pineda's "slider" is a unique baseball pitch, held in his gigantic hand like a Ping-Pong ball. He grips it with his middle finger like a 12-6 curve, which caused a minor sensation during the summer last year, Pineda's unique grip and spin. The pitch breaks more down than in, and the CHANGEUP ACTION is what kills lefty hitters dead.
Pineda showed you, all year long, WHY lefties can't hit him. You saw LH's screw themselves into the ground, way out in front of his "slider" all year.
Please get this straight. It is NOT the MOVEMENT on Pineda's slider that draws the swings and misses. It is the PARACHUTE on the slider, the arm action, the fact that batters are scared spitless of his fastball.
If you think of Pineda's slider as, in effect, a forkball -- where the change-speed is the main aspect to its utility -- maybe you'll be able to get comfortable with the reality of his effectiveness against LHB's.
.......
No, Egbert, he's not going to throw 89 mph next year, any more than he did this year (except in the early innings a few times. Pineda tailed off to 88-91 late in Tacoma in 2010, also. It didn't take away his 98 mph in April. The kid is 22!
Supposing that Pineda were down to 92 mph, he would still have one of the AL's great fastballs. If you have to ask why, dial 1-800-JERED.
The hulking, 97-mph Pineda, or any pitcher, could have a catastrophic loss of velocity. So could David Price. So could Justin Verlander. It doesn't mean that you waste your time presuming that they'll become Joel Pineiro next year.
Anybody who still can't perceive the nature of lefties' problems against Michael Pineda, better watch a game.
..........
I did sympathize with one thing. Commentors ripped the Pineda / Votto suggestion on the basis that, What in the world would Cincinnati want with Michael Pineda?
No, Pineda-for-Votto is a perfectly reasonable concept. Why we would have a subconscious urge to get Pineda out of Seattle is another question. Didn't work out so well, for me, in Randy Johnson's case.
Hey. Michael Pineda was one of two (2) AL starters with more K than IP in 2011. Pineda is soon going to add a third pitch and a knowledge of his enemies. He's getting better from here, not worse. For all you know, pokey, Michael Pineda is going to be in the Hall of Fame.
You've got one of the truly thrilling young properties in baseball, and all you can say is meh. Wake up and smell the strikeouts, can'cha.
/rant mode
Ahhhhhhhhhh. Much better. :- )
Your friend,
Dr D
Comments
Risk is the answer, Moe. Pineda is a much riskier player than Votto. With Votto, you are getting a high degree of certainty with regards to his production. With Pineda, you might get Clemens, you might get Doc Gooden, you might get Gil Mech and you might get a torn labrum in spring training 2012 - there is really no way to tell.
Pitchers are just darn volatile, especially young ones like Pineda.
Yes...Pineda is riskier tha Votto, but Pineda is also considerably more rare tha Votto. And teams pay a large premium in real value and in risk to get players that are rare and hard to find for your roster. It was a heck of a lot riskier, for example for the Yankees to spend zillions on AJ Burnett with his up and down record, but they did it because they desperately wanted to plug SP2 with someone that had high enough upside.
Pineda for Votto is a bad move for the Mariners. Pineda for Votto and Cueto would be arguable and a value for value level, but I doubt I'd want to do that anyway. Just sign Pineda to a long term contract after 2012 (one more year to establish the viability of his arm) and then think about a trade for him if and only if both Paxton and Hultzen pan out.
My guess is that Pineda, in years 2-6, has about 2.5, or 3.0, times the "net future value" that Votto does in Votto's years 5-6 ... for instance, you've got 2.5 times the club-controls years remaining. Not one more year, but 250% the club time left.
And Pineda's time, of course, includes those lucrative net years 2, 3, and 4.
..........
Felix, however, has less pure profit in his contract -- he's underpaid about $7M per year for the next few years. Factor in any risk on Felix?, and you've got a no-brainer to give the Reds Felix for Votto.
And his ERA was unlucky at 3.70 in Safeco. There's your real over/under profit bet: 3.70 in Safeco for Michael Pineda :- )
Future years, 200-220 IP, with lower ERA's, Pineda's a mortal lock to produce $20-27M per year.
You da man Moe.
What's the Over/Under on Pineda, Doc?
Me? I'm taking the Over, which a whole bunch of people have set way too low.
If Cameron was Vegas and set the Over/Under where he just did, the savy gamblers would have been all over that so quickly your eyes would have spinned.
Even if every arm we have coming up pans out, the trade to make in two years is sending Felix to the Yankees for their minor league system.
In my mind Pineda just has a lot more health risk to him than Felix. It wasn't unusual for the camrea to cut to MP in the dugout during one of his starts where he would look like he was suffering from discomfort and appeared to be taking some anti-inflammatories. How often has Felix looked like that?
Pineda is a rarer commodity than Votto? Seriously? Have you actually seen Votto hit? In four seasons as a full time hitter, his OPS has been .874, .981, 1.024 and .947. He would easily be the best hitter this organization has seen since ARod's departure over a decade ago. Legit MVP bats are the rarest commodity in baseball.
As far as trading Felix for him - it would have to be a three way since the only reason the Reds will trade him is because they know they can't afford his FA. They can't afford Felix. Felix to the Yankees, the Yankees prospects (Montero +++) to the Reds and Votto to Seattle might work, I guess.
He'd have that edge over any mega-rookie pitcher -- Strasburg, Ogando, Hellickson or whoever.
Doesn't mean you'd have traded the rookie David Price, going into 2010, because you're skittish about all young pitchers...
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::shrug:: Advil is handed out by the bowlful in any pro locker room. Felix gets iced after starts and it ain't because his arm feels great.
Presuming the M's could get his contract extended, I'm all over that. A single Edgar Martinez, right in the middle of a lineup, has untold impact on the whole ballclub.
I'd just rather do it with minor league pitching, if I had my druthers - Paxton or Taijuan plus goodies. Consolidate some of this redundant talent in S&S fashion.
Guarantee you that a package a la Paxton - Trayvon - Nicky - whatever is going to bring back Joey Votto, if he's on the market at all. Michael Pineda is not a sine qua non in a Votto trade.
M's could easily offer the high bid in any Votto market without including Pineda. Question is whether they'd want to weather the flak for doing so.
The rarest commodity in baseball is Roger Clemens. We have two of those. Roger Clemens happens far less often than Eddie Murray or Edgar Martinez...though they are both incredibly valuable, obviously. But just because we have two of those rare hoss SP aces doesn't mean they're more common than the great hitting first basemen.
I would argue that the trade packages teams give up for Felix type pitchers vs. the ones they give up for Joey Vottos makes my case for me.