M's run out Dr. D's baseball-card lineup

When I was ten years old, I'd take my Reds baseball cards and line them up around the field ... and in batting-order formation...

For the first time in 2011, Wedge fields something very similar to what my baseball cards would have looked like.  

We're not talking pitcher-batter matchups, not talking sophistication about the way hitters interact, not taking into consideration who's hot this week or who's hung over or who can hit pitchers they haven't seen, not talking sabermetrics at all ....

Just talking the best hitters on the team, Wedge has these guys going:

  • 1 Ichiro rf
  • 2 Ryan ss
  • 3 Kennedy 3b
  • 4 Smoak 1b
  • 5 Olivo c
  • 6 Peguero, lf
  • 7 Ackley, 2b
  • 8 Carp, dh
  • 9 Halman, cf

Which has the following coolnesses to it:

  • At long last, a rawhide-tough RBI man -- lefty and topspinning, in Safeco -- playing 3B.
  • All three 100+ Cheney kids in the lineup.
  • Ichiro on a 6-game multihit streak.
  • Gutierrez resting for the "aiki-relaxed" 40-homer hopeful Greg Halman.
  • Roy Hobbs playing second.
  • Olivo, sitting on 7 homers in June (!), in there -- so all your talented hitters are in there together.

Batting order doesn't matter much.  But supposing that you did get to pick the order ...

Going against conventional wisdom as always (Ackley might get nervous don'cha know!), a Dr. D lineup tonight would make only these batting-order changes:

 

  • 1 Ichiro rf
  • 2 Kennedy 3b
  • 3 Ackley, 2b
  • 4 Smoak 1b
  • 5 Carp, dh
  • 6 Olivo c 
  • 7 Peguero, lf
  • 8 Ryan, ss
  • 9 Halman, cf

 

In a perfect world, I'd like to have an OBP guy batting second, whereas Kennedy's an RBI man.  But the M's best lineup right now is (almost) all RBI hitters, not R scorers.

 

Adam Kennedy, for example, is much more SLG than he is OBP, but the bigger factor is that he's just a good hitter.   And he is an EXTREME topspin-pull hitter, so with Ichiro on 1B it's a defensive nightmare for the infielders.  Tony LaRussa used to do something similar with Dave Henderson behind Rickey:  Rickey made Hendu a better hitter than he ordinarily was.

 

So Dr. D's "just for fun" batting order would have five legitimately good hitters 1-5, including Carp in that.   And then you have pleasant "all or nothing" dice rolls in the second half of the lineup.  With Halman's speed as the second leadoff guy.

 

***

 

I'd go to war with that lineup against the Phillies in the World Series.  Oh, wait.  We just saw a World Series game, Pineda against Oswalt.  Who won that game?

 

Felix tonight, with our best nine hitters.  No politics, no entitlement, just our first string, babe.  Looks like the 2-0 Series lead is in the bag.

 

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

1
glmuskie's picture

2001????
It has been a long dry run for Mariner fans.  I'm trying to think of the last time I liked every batter 1-9.  I couldn't think of one time since 2001.  Maybe I'm missing something, but since then there has always been a Cirillo or Vidro playing gotcha somewhere in there.
Not that this lineup is a world-beater, mind you...  but there's something to like at every position, and not much reason to cringe at any one spot.

2
ghost's picture

Please...mother may I?
That HR by Ackley was absolutely VAPORIZD...and Halman just keeps lining the ball to right and working ahead in counts and fighting off pitcher's pithces.  When am I allowed to think Halman might just stick?
Ditto Carp?
Can I be excited yet? :)

3

Now that folks have seen what happens when that swing squares the ball up, you won't get a lot of flak from here dude.  
Here's the video.  In the video, check the way the end of the bat faces the pitcher as Ack! winds up for launch.

Ackley didn't get all of it by any stretch ... it was an offspeed pitch, and he was gliding his weight forward when he hit it.  When he hits one off the back leg you'll see real power.
As with Pineda, there is no amount of logic that replaces --- > seeing him with your own eyes... nobody is going to doubt Ackley's ability to consistently hit the Safeco RF porch after that one...
***
Ackley's hot shot to 3B was another .600 BABIP that found leather ... and he whistled one down the RF line juuuusssst foul.... three near-doubles in his first two games, to go along with the single and homer.
He will probably get two weeks' worth of doubles, triples, and homers before the word gets out, don't let this kid beat you, and then the BB-fest begins...
Junior was the only other Seattle hitter who ever came up with the presence that Dustin Ackley has.  Even Ichiro seemed to be less sure of himself, in his first week.

5
ghost's picture

Aside from Peguero making a fool of himself and trying to kill the Phillies one splinter at a time, that had to be the best-looking one-run game I've ever seen.  Carp, Halman, Ichiro, Ackley, Kennedy, Smoak...they all put plenty of good ABs on the Phillies...made all of their pitchers work hard despite the low hit count.  They should have had more than one run.

6
Rick's picture

Your baseball card lineup was rather underwhelming last night. But Ackley's home run was the most impressive shot I ever witnessed by a left handed Mariner at Safeco. And a second baseman! A lefty Brett Boone plus! So I'm pumped.
But there are too many holes in this lineup, and when you are using your #2 hitter to sacrifice your leadoff hitter along to second in the middle of 5th inning (!), you are admitting you have little confidence in what you trotted out there (not to mention the confidence in your leadoff guy to steal a base against a right handed - something Halman later did).
That lineup look FLAWED last night. It was built on past achievements, not according to what a forward looking manager would do.
If we are going to contend this season, our lineup needs to start with Figgins, Ichiro, Ackley, Smoak, and then mix and match according to platoon advantages. Olivo needs to be dropped lower when facing right handers.
I understand baseball protocol says this can't be done overnight, but this team resembles to me the '77 Sonics, and needs a Lenny Wilkens to step in, arrange the pieces, and create a functioning unit. Right now, it reminds me of the Bob Hopkins reign: starting Paul Silas here, keeping Slick Watts as point guard there, and overall offering an incoherent mess.
Figgins is a Gus Williams, and needs to handed that job as ignitor. Ackley is a Dennis Johnson, and needs to be pushed up front. Kennedy is a Paul Silas, and needs to be the valuable bench piece. Ichiro: he can manage the offense with his bat and brains at the 2 hole the way JJohnson managed the Sonic offense from the small forward.
position.
Maybe you can put Ackley at the 2, but seriously, who is your 3 and 4 then? Are you really going to war with Kennedy as the fulcrum point of your offense? Have you looked at his numbers lately? Same with Olivo. Is he really going to bat 5 for you?
If Figgins fails at leadoff, then, I would accept all the I told you so's with as much grace as I could dredge up. We've hit he beach and making headway. But I can't see this team busting out of the .500 hedgerows we are stuck in, unless we try find a way to make Figgins the guy he was with the Angels. In other words, It's Northern France and Scioscia's old secret weapon could be ours: time to put Figgins out front, the way Ike let Patton free.

7
Taro's picture

The talent is insane. I'd be suprised if Ackley continued to hit for power early on, but there are guys like Braun that are immediate monsters.

8

First live game at Safeco in 4 years, tickets purchased in March, sitting on the aisle sec 134 looking straight down the RF line behind home plate from behind the plate.  Talk about luck!
Anyway, Ackley's HR was killed.  The clean sound and the speed it left the bat made me stand up cheering before the RF had a chance to fully turn around.  We had bad depth perception, but sometimes you just know when a ball is destroyed.  He hit a liner foul down the RF line by about 10 feet that was an easy double and hit just about as hard as that HR.  It's really amazing how he just stands there at the plate and then makes a decision.  As an observer, I couldn't tell if he was going to swing until he started swinging.  Ackley knows he can hit and he's easy to scout - dude can hit anywhere, anytime.  He might be the best hitter on the Mariners right now and is no worse than third.
 
Smoak doesn't walk on the field - he struts like John Travolta from Saturday Night Fever.  Halman looked like the fifth best hitter in the lineup after Ackley, Ichiro, Smoak, and Olivo.  He just needs to figure out when not to swing.  Peguero's either going to learn to hit mid-thigh and higher on the inside corner or he's not going to make it.
 
Fun game outside a soft liner on the chalk and Jamie Wright grooving one.

9

OK, OK. If you compare the two teams you will find a lot of DIS-similarities, especially the fact that LA in 1988 finished in the middle of the pack offensively.
But I hung on every Dodger game in 1988, the year most remember the remarkable pitching of Orel Hershiser and the incredible World-Series-changing home run by Kirk Gibson off Dennis Eckersly. This Southern California born and bred boy had just picked up and moved his wife of 6 years and their 3-year-old daughter to Vancouver, Washington. Plans were made to do this after we were squarely faced with the reality that our first house, located in Rialto, California because it was the only place we could afford, was in a war zone. Five shots fired one night while watching Monday Night Football, shouting to my wife to “Pancake! Hit the floor!” and diving myself to the living room floor with my daughter wrapped in my arms. So we moved to the Northwest where we knew nobody in order to raise our family in a safer place. OK, back then it was. Following the Dodgers was the only link to my previous life. Starting, oh, about 8:30pm to 9pm on summer evenings if I tuned my transistor radio just right I could get a scratchy, snowy in-and-out signal of Dodger broadcasts. So that’s what I did most every evening. And I watched them whenever I could on TV..
Those Dodgers simply could not stack up offensively with the elite competition in baseball that year. But they, like the M's, were second in the league in Team ERA. And they had something else. They were tough as nails, and they found ways to win. And guys who simply weren’t stars, much less superstars, kept beating guys who were stars and superstars when it counted. They beat teams they had no business beating.
Take the (loaded) New York Mets who they downed 4 games to 3 in the NLCS, with Gary Carter behind the plate, and Keith Hernandez, and Darryl Strawberry, a 111 Team OPS+, and and incredible pitching staff led by Doc Gooden and David Cone (Team ERA+ 112). The Mets and Dodgers both had outstanding pitching, but the Dodgers offensively were not in the same league as New York.
And LA then went on to beat the even more loaded, fearsome Oakland A's 4 games to 1 in the World Series, a team that had McGwire, Canseco, Lansford, Henderson, and Baylor on offense, with a 111 ERA+ pitching staff headed by Dave Stewart and Dennis Eckersley with one of the best seasons ever for a closer.
Who did the Dodgers have on offense?
C) Mike Scioscia, tough as nails, but no superstar like Gary Carter
1B) An overhyped 92 OPS+ Franklin Stubbs who, now 27, never really panned out. Not Keith Hernandez, and certainly not Mark McGwire.
2B) Scrappy Steve Sax. He’d put pressure on your defense with his speed and base-stealing.
3B) Jeff Hamilton. Ugh. Decent defense, but no bat to speak of. Not Lansford, not Howard Johnson who had hit 24 home runs for the Mets.
SS) Alfredo Griffin at his worst, hitting .199 for the season.
LF) Kirk Gibson. He was good, and again, tough like Scioscia and scrappy like Sax. But match the Dodgers’ best hitter with the Mets left fielder, Kevin McReynolds, and statistically they were a wash.
(CF) John Shelby, a defensive whiz, nothing special with the bat. Not like Oakland’s Dave Henderson, and a lesser player than New York’s Lenny Dykstra.
(RF) Mike Marshall, another LA overhype who fared somewhat better than Stubbs, but never became much more than a slightly above average player who sometimes looked very average. Match this guy up against Darryl Strawberry and Jose Canseco, and you get the point.
(Bench) I only mention the bench to bring up the name Mickey Hatcher. Put him in a category with Scioscia and Gibson as gamers. He played a little third, a little first, a little left field. He didn’t start because he just didn’t have as much talent as the other guys, even the guys on his own team.
This collection of misfits beat the Barry Larkin, Eric Davis, Paul O’Neill Reds for the NL West crown, then downed two great teams, consecutively, in the postseason. They had a bloomin’ 90 Team OPS+. They had no business winning the division. They had no business winning a postseason series. But they did. And the reason was they were tough. They were born giant-killers.
Like the 2011 Mariners.

10

Workin' the filter DaddyO.  Coupla gems! :- )  ... runnin' off ta work...
:cpoints:

11
ghost's picture

Actually...although they scored a near-average number of runs...that 90 OPS+ is very similar to what we are now as a team in Seattle. Simple math:
Current OPS+ 84
Take out most of the PT for Jack Wilson and Jack Cust, all of the PT for Luis Rodriguez, Milton Bradley, Ryan Langerhans and Michael Saunders
Insert PT for Franklin Gutierrez, Greg Halman, Carlos Peguero, Mike Carp, and Dustin Ackley
Projected OPS+ the rest of the way: 92-95.
This team might be just a tad weaker offensively, but we're definitely not all that different.
Pitching wise, we're deeper, better, stronger than those Dodgers...except in the bullpen. We need to acquire a couple of veteran relievers I think. I don't actually think we need to acquire a big full time bat, though it might be wise to pick up some insurance bat to take Peguero's PT and what's left of Cust's PT. I think we can win the whole darned thing with our CURRENT team...pluis a couple of extra relief arms and an insurance bat. I really believe that.

12

We have talked about the recent Giants, the 2005 White Sox, etc... the 1988 Dodgers are one of the best targets for the 2011 M's to shoot at.
You are defying gravity, without a doubt, trying to win the WS with a 90 OPS+.  But it would be nice if the Seattle blog-o-sphere would acknowledge that sometimes it is done.
The fact that Z & W are willing to keep flipping cards, until they get a scrappy 1988 Dodgers offense, is what is keeping this season alive.  Keep flipping those twist cards and you just may get an offense that can go to war.

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.