=== Twinkies Circle the Wagons ===
My man Geoffy, who is definitely the best baseball writer I've seen in Seattle, a bit dourly warned his readers that the M's were going to stomp the Padres and Twins.
Y'know, with an air like, don't read too much into it. It's the Padres and Twins.
Thought for the day. When you start to realize, before the games start, that you are about to stomp a bad team ... that means you are a good team.
:- )
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=== Peguero Runs Rampant, M's Score Six ===
Here's a phrase you hear a lot around the 'net: "It was the best information we had at the time." Normally this refers to an opinion we had at the time.
Maybe it was actual "information" :- ) but here's a phrase you hear a lot if you're seeking the truth: [The information we have now, is different than the information we had last month].
.........
A month ago, we (at least, I) did not know these three things:
- Carlos Peguero was an exciting ML prospect
- Mike Wilson was an interesting ML prospect
- Under Chris Chambliss' tutelage, both would hit the Safeco ground running
Now we know. Well, we suspect it...
Two exciting ML slugger prospects who will apparently not need 500 AB's just to start chippingin.
New "information", or evaluation, or best guesses, or whatever you call our understanding of our situation. We better adjust to it, quickly.
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=== The Cost of Cust, Dept. ===
A week ago, we told you that next stage in Cust's devolution would be when the pitchers stopped worrying about his power, and stopped walking him.
We were wrong. They stopped worrying about his power a month ago:
In May, they already tilted way toward strikes. Cust's .424 BABIP, however, bought him another month in the big leagues, and a blizzard of defense counselors on the internet. ;- )
.......
As you can see from his line drive %, his BABIP wasn't warranted.
To be fair, his 42% fly ball rate meant that he was hitting the ball more to center (check the GB ratios to L, C, and R).
The eye confirms. Cust did spend a month smacking singles into center field, and some doubles between the outfielders. Good on him.
......
Plotting the career arc, though, isn't hard. And it's not a pretty one.
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=== West Oahu Trade Winds, Dept. ===
It isn't real cool to powerflush a popular veteran when he seems to be hitting good, so the M's way out would typically be to trade Cust.
However, here's the list of AL teams and their DH's, sorted by wRC+ (which is like OPS+). See if you can identify a team that would use Cust.
Jack Cust's next stop, after Seattle, is AAA baseball. Maybe a 150-AB role off a bench somewhere. Neither would be very nice of Jack.
.....
The Mariners (and SSI) love the way that Peguero and Mike Wilson are swinging the bat, and they know about Mike Carp. On paper, the M's have a very simple and forced variation here: shed Cust and play 3-to-make-2 in left field and DH.
They'd be much more dynamic, much farther along in The Plan, and better period to transition Cust. The problem is political.
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=== If Only ===
Let's just say that, per Zum-Bro's meta analysis, you could shed Figgins and eat only 30% of his salary or so:
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- Ichiro, 110 OPS+
- Ackley, 110 OPS+ or more (oh yeah. Tons of BB's)
- Smoak, 140 OPS+
- Carp-Peguero-MWilson, dh/lf 100 OPS+ (good matchup that day)
- Kennedy, 3b 100 OPS+ (he's a Safeco hitter)
- Gutierrez, 90 OPS+
- Carp-Peguero-MWilson, dh/lf 90 OPS+ (2nd matchup that day)
- Olivo, 60 OPS+
- Ryan, 70 OPS+
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I'd cheerfully run with Adam Kennedy at 3B until Rendon or Triunfel or Liddi was ready.
This offense, including the bench, would probably be 100 OPS+ or better. You ever checked Baseball-Reference to see what you get with a 102 OPS+ and a 120 ERA+?
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=== Back to Reality ===
In any case, Carlos Peguero and Mike Wilson have definitely rejuvenated the M's coming off the Milton Bradley situation.
Brendan Ryan's OPS+ has crawled out of the coffin, and is now 70, not 50. Exactly the same applies to Miguel Olivo.
Ichiro's a 5-WAR player, or say 3-4 WAR if this is his falloff year. Not a -WAR player. There's another upgrade.
Ackley's coming in.
.............
We said that it isn't hard to replace horrible players with mediocre ones. Via Stars & Scrubs and a little luck evening out, the offense is threatening to transition from "gag-inducing" to "lame."
We need improvement. Even just in-house players, hitting better, that's an acceptable improvement.
A little of it has occurred.
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=== Chris Chambliss ===
Mike Wilson stepped off the bench and rattled scoreboard-changing balls all over Petco. The reason was Chambliss.
You get the idea that Carl Willis is a Fowler / Miller class pitching coach and that Chris "Six-Ring" Chambliss is also legit. Eric Wedge has grabbed Seattle by the scruff of the neck and insisted it win, as though he were Lou Piniella or somebody.
Not sure about this printout, but six weeks in, it looks like the Mariners have a big time coaching staff.
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