=== Batterrrrr Rup, Chone Figgins ===
Sept. 1, 2009.
Fister came out and started the ballgame against a red-hot lineup that had crushed French and the M's, 10-0, the night before.
He threw the first two pitches to Chone Figgins Right! On! the Black!, one at the top of the zone, the other at the bottom -- and the ump smirkingly called them both balls. 2-0. As if to say, you're going to have to give these guys the ball where they want it, rook.
As a catcher once told the young Ron Luciano after two such pitches, "Look, you're going to have to give me either the high one or the low one, or we're going to be here all night," whereupon Luciano called everything close the rest of his career...
Two pitches in, and Dr. D is irate.
We're half planning our R.I.P. column for the night's ballgame, because we've seen sooooo many of these ballgames in the tank early. Rookie pitchers have enough to handle, without facing the best lineup in the league (right now) and the ump waving pom-pom's for them.
.................
Doogie centered the next one, at 89, for 2-1. Risked a "gimme" against a guy without much power. Excellent awareness.
The fourth pitch was maybe four inches high, so that's an easy call against the rook, 3-1.
Then Figgins walked on six pitches. So, 10-0 the night before, leadoff man on, the Angels breathing fire. Already the Mariners, with Olson or Silva starting the game, are on the ropes.
.
=== Two Hitter, Abreu ===
Against Bobby Abreu, Fister starts with a fastball that the Tracker says is 2" inside the zone. 1-0 count, rook.
You have to understand the synergy here between the ump and the Angels' dugout. The stars, the pennant contenders, are wearing red, and the ump isn't going to let the rook run away from the Big Dogs. Gotta face the music, rook. That's the umpire's attitude.
......................
Fister actually misses with the next pitch, so 2-0 again. In the booth, Dave Niehaus is all over Doug Fister, making comment after comment about how hard it is for AAA pitchers to find the guts to pitch in the big leagues. siiiigggghhhhhhhh.... Mike Blowers very gently tries to slow Dave down a little bit.
......................
Fister throws over to 1B several times, showing calm awareness of the Angels' running game, while dealing with the lefty Abreu.
Throwing to first cuts the SB% by over 10%, and throwing 3 times cuts it more than that. Later in the inning, Figgins will be thrown out!
.......................
On 2-0, Fister centers a "gimme" strike ...
And then on 2-1, already a game-defining pitch. 2-1 count, lefty Abreu, man on first, dangerous inning ... Fister tubes a 2-1 changeup that locks up Abreu. There's the bread-and-butter pitch that separates Fister from a thousand PCL pitchers.
Jack Nicklaus once said that the thing that separates PGA Tour players, from 0-handicappers, is that Tour players can execute outstanding shots at will. Doogie racks up the 2-2 strike on Abreu easily.
........................
On 2-2, Fister throws an 88 fastball that nicks the very inside edge of the zone on Abreu. I am here to tell you that if Jered Weaver throws that pitch to Ichiro, it is called strike three All. Night. Long.
The ump jobs Fister yet again.
3-2, can't possibly risk a walk and 2 on, 0 out. Yet Abreu will be only too happy to splash the fences on this one. Doogie goes to his money pitch, the change, getting a lot of the plate. Abreu awkwardly fouls it off.
3-2 again, can't throw the change this time because of the foul ball... Fister throws the change again!! and Abreu swings through it.
Figgins, with a poor jump, is thrown out at second base. Strike-'em-out, throw-em-out double play. Fister is never in a scary situation again.
.
=== Fourth Inning ===
By the fourth, the ump is not only giving Fister the black, he is giving him a couple of inches more. On Vlad Guerrero, Doogie starts with a change and Guerrero wrenches his back :- ) swinging through it.
The next pitch is telling: an 89-mph four-seam FB that is a good four inches outside. The ump calls the strike, with gusto. Vlad steps out of the box, smiling and shaking his head.
Took Doogie all of two innings to convert the ump. That's major league baseball for a rookie who has It.
Cheers,
Dr D
...two weeks ago, I said of Fister that he had "it"...and that French did not. Now that phrase pops up in your posting on Fister. :)
French is a thrower. And not a very good one. Fister is a pitcher. One of the smartest pitchers we've had since the days of Moyer. Stuff-wise they may be roughly equal, but French is going to be MLB roadkill...a bug on the windshield that is life in the show...and Fister is going to be a #3 starter. Bank it.
If you'll give Russter credit, since he's been using "It" for about six years :- )
Ya, Fister's presence is remarkable. You'd think he was in a AA setting, the way he locks in.
So who's your 2010 rotation right now, Matty?
I'm not Matt, but once wiped my feet on one...
The 2010 rotation will be:
Felix (duh)
Hyphen
Snell
Bedard
Fister
Watch for Feiarabend to make a charge if his elbow is up for the challenge.
Lonnie
Fair enough. :)
My rotation right now would be:
King Felix
Rockin' Rollin'-Smith
Doug Fister
Ian Snell
Brandon Morrow / Erik Bedard / Luke French (in that order, Bedard would be higher but I don't think he'll be in pitching shape until July)
Who gets bumped if Bedard's rehab works out, as it did last winter?
Leaving beaucoup bucks for the lineup?
If Bedard is healthy, the rotation would go Felix / Bedard / Fister / Rowland-Smith / Morrow I would think and Morrow could use the Joba rules arm-saver plan and pitch some out of the bullepn late in the season or early in the season with Snell filling in.
If the Mariners decide to pay for Bedard's rehab and sign him to an incentive laden 1-year deal (I think even Bedard would be OK wiht that), then you've got Felix in arbitration year two (likely to cost around 8 million), Bedard making maybe 3-5 mil base plus incentives for innings pitched, Snell making 3.25 mil and the rest are free (league minimum or close).
If I'm the Mariners I'm spending some of my big dollars on extending King Felix for 5-7 years. But otherwise, the only roster spots that cost money are Silva (d'oh!), Ichiro (who is still a bargain at 12.8 mil...the rest is deferred), Jack Wilson (8 mil option picked up), and Johjima if we can't force him out of the organization. Branyan won't cost more than 5-6 mil...he's like Ibanez was at this point in his career...a perennial bargain because he bloomed late and has periodic injury issues. Snell and Bedard don't cost much. Neither does Lopez. Neither does Gutierrez. The entire bullpen will cost less than 8 million dollars. Combined. That leaves room to trade for Adam Dunn or sign someone else (Abreu? Who else is a free agent who can DH?) and play your options at third base (you can take Matt Tui for free and gamble on his being ready or you can look for someone like Joe Crede on the market)
impressed by the Rook last night!
After the first batter and a half I thought, "Uh oH this might be a long night if the ump is going to be stingy". It was kind of like the ump saw those first hald dozen or so On the black strikes and thought, "No way does this kid throw a Maddux fastball, those must just be accidents, BAll1!". But Fister never even blinked! That was the most impressive part, he just kept throwing thoseborderline strikes and never cussed the ump or got upset, and eventually he won him over!
Also that Change up is a plus plus pitch right now. That thing is GOREGOUS. It moves A TON and so gets swings and misses, but he usually starts it off the plate and moves it one so it gets plenty of called strikes as well!
Another impressive thing about last night was that Doug whipsawed thime with only two pitches. He threw a couple of Curves early on and they were splashed for line drives, and he simply put it away, never threw another one. Now THAT is some keen awareness! It wasn;t even that the pitch was all that bad, it was located and had fine movement, he just recognised that the Angels were on that particular pitch for whatever reason, so he shelfed it, like for the rest of the game!
I know everyone else is concentrating on the young and comers, (or even the possible return of a cheap dice-roll on Bedard). And if 2010 was the FINAL season of Silva's contract, then I'd think it more likely to be a realistic hope. But, I think there's a bit of naivetee going on here. If earning more money than every other starter COMBINED, Silva is going to be a priority to get some value out of. It's easy for the fan to say (yawn, another 24 million down the drain ... let's move on). It's MUCH harder for the company endorsing those checks.
It's a simple baseball reality that players who still have minor league options are going to be more likely to be sent down when compared to the veteran owed $24 million. This is one of the reasons why rolling the dice on Bedard gets complex. Felix is obvious. The next four STARTS with Silva, (no matter how much the fans don't want this to be true). Silva will have to prove he CANNOT hack it as "at least" a #5 before the club swallows that pill.
No, this is not a thought that'll bring joy to the Mariner masses, but before anyone hurls themselves off a roof, I think it's important to remember that prior to 2009, the opinion of Wash by much of the Mariner faithful wasn't much better than that of Silva. While there was much speculation that Silva's DL assignment was dubious ... by now I think it's obvious that there was geniune injury, which means his 2009 numbers with the club were tainted.
It's also important to remember that after his 5.94 ERA 38-HR 2006 season with the Twinkies, he followed it up with a 4.19 ERA in 2007 which is why he had ANY FA value in 2008.
The likely rotation, IMO to "start" the 2009 season?
Felix
RRS
Silva
French
Snell
The complicating factor here is handedness. Z has proven he understand the home field situation, attempting pile on the lefty bats. But, to encourage opposition to use righty bats, then you need a bunch of lefty pitchers, too. Felix, of course, is dominant enough that handedness is irrelevant. But Fister and French?
I honestly think the club might convince Snell to start off in AAA, if he hasn't found his joy by ST, (even if out of options). Snell REQUESTED to be sent down because he was so bummed in Pittsburgh. Of course, the final month of 2009 will play a part in the decisions, as will performance during ST.
The potentially best option would be to convince Silva to move to the pen, where I think he might be an even better middle reliever than Jaku. Throw strikes. Pitch to contact. Never let 'em see you twice in a game. (Career numbers for Silva: .751 OPS 1st PA in game ... .860 on 2nd ... .842 on 3rd). Basically, to get Fister into the lineup, I think they have to turn Silva into Batista.
Of course, we haven't seen Z deal from depth yet. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn a handful of his "interesting" but unspectacular pitching prospects into one really good lefty, (being a lefty, of course, makes gambling on Bedard more attractive, too).
The pattern ought to be obvious ... Olson, Vargas, French ... Z was stacking the deck to TRY and replace the walking Wash and Bedard with more lefties. Dash, at this point, is the only lefty anyone is high on. That's fair enough. But I cannot see the club WANTING to begin 2009 with only a single lefty in the rotation. I understand that visual inspection is nice. But I still just don't get why Fister and French, who BOTH had a performance explosion in AAA this season and each has just a handful of really intriguing AAA innings, and even smaller MLB innings results in one being annointed as the next rotation fixture and the other deemed utter dogmeat, (especially when it's the younger guy that's dubbed dogmeat). At 23, Fister was still struggling in AA, and at 24 posted absolutely AWFUL numbers in AA.
I suppose the disconnect is in examining a guy who was statistically AWFUL in 2008 and seeing him perform exceptionally well in 2009 ... why is it that seeing a guy 2 years younger performing BETTER than Fister did at age 24 and already in the majors is being written off as a complete dead-end waste of time?
In any case, I don't see Z and W making their choices on the 2010 rotation based only on a couple of good outings in September.
Hehehe,
I was just about to reply to Matty's post when you jumped in. Thank ye kindly, but I have no monopoly on it. I've used it in a pretty decent context, but the guy that actually did a very fine essay on that on the air a few years ago was Colin Cowherd, who was still on local radio in Portland at the time. Back when I stirred the DOV pot with my own version of it, it was heavily infuenced by Cowherd's excellent on-air monologue. I didn't plagiarize him of course, but I did use the spirit of his delivery in a written form. Now I wish I could remember exactly what I said. :-o
-R
Quick FYI also - on TV locally they've made it clear that Silva comes back in the pen...
... as a blogger who has It.
Fister's change not only has a parachute, but it has a raccoon-like tail on it too...
'Didn't even blink' is a good way to put it .... he started using the change to get a ton of the plate, and almost seemed to recognize that once he got five outs, the ump would come around...
Of such is born a 0+ PCL walk rate, I guess... apparently the lad can manage UMPs, too...
None. Nada. Zippo. ZERO chance that French makes the rotation ahead of Fister. Handedness is a great thing. If you have talent. If Z's handling of the pitching staff teaches us anything...it's that he doens't care about handedness more than he cares about results. Wok dislikes French. I DESPISE him. And as long as Fister continues to be effective, I'll streak Manhattan in the dead of January if the day comes that French gets picks ahead of Fister in 2010.
You do have a good point re: Silva...he should probably be factored into the
rotation plans next year.
Go back a year, and what were the odds that Jaku would be starting ahead of RRS, or Morrow, or Silva for that matter.
Yeah, my putting French out there was intended to be a bit hyperbolic. But, my perception of the positions on French and Fister is that the discussions all seem to be fixated solely and completely on the eye-ball results from 30 innings. (Of course, the absolute dominance of French of Seattle itself from earlier in the year is viewed as a useless piece of abberant information, to be ignored in toto).
Back in April I said *NO PITCHER* can be accurately judged off of 30 innings, when half the blog-o-sphere was doing backflips over Jaku. What boggles my mind is how the SAME people could vehemently defend that this 30-year-old never-was can appear out of nowhere, whose statistical profile prior to 2008 strongly suggested he was well qualified to be selling Lady Kenmoores is convinced with 120% certainty that a 23-year-old kid who suddenly made a quantum leap in performance in AAA is not only currently inferior to Fister, (who has an INFERIOR AAA line in 2009). but based SOLELY AND COMPLETELY on the eyeball inspection of 30 MLB innings he throws as a rookie, (and completely and utterly ignoring his AAA numbers in 2009), believes that he is also completely and utterly incapable of EVER improving.
There's also the alarm bells that went off for me when French noted that for MOST of his innings with Detroit he was pitching with a "dead arm". If true, (and his innings issues support this), then the MLB French seen to date has been WORST French. It's possible that the Seattle game may be the only BEST French seen to date. But, what can cure a dead arm? Rest, obviously. Like ... oh, say ... the off season?
Part of the reason I suggested French over Fister was hyperbolic. But, part of it was the belief that come March of 2010 it is LIKELY that we will see a different French *OR* a different Fister. There's also the possibilty of injury (for one or both).
But, I do believe that Z would "prefer" to have three lefties in the rotation. The current spate of SP candidates doesn't fit that model, of course. But Felix is the only 100% sure thing for the 2010 rotation. Snell, Silva, Fister, French, RRS? I think EVERYONE has a chance to play their way into OR out of the rotation. And I could see massive back-pedaling on Fister if he strings together a couple of really bad outings in September.