Remember 2004, the year the M's went from 93 wins to 99 losses?
That was the year John Olerud hit the wall. He had a .360 OBP, but he also had 22 RBI's in the first half, and he and Edgar made for the worst pair of high-OBP players in league history.
They were a lot better than Jack Cust is now, though.
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SLOPS TO JACK CUST'S POWER OUTAGE - SSI spent the winter "analyzing" whether he lost his SLG due to the A's harassing him to take fewer pitches.
My bad. They didn't. Cust has simply lost his ability to hit very many homers. It's not a shocker; many ML hitters are done at 32. Especially the non-athletes.
A slow guy who does nothing but walk? That's suicide.
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They tell me that you can't get Justin Upton for the kind of minor leaguers you used to buy Cliff Lee. I'll go along with that, I guess, but you can't get Jonny Gomes types? There is no 110 OPS+ who's a little overpaid in a small market somewhere?
Remember, 95, 100, 110 OPS+ hitters are supposed to be "replacement level" at DH, 1B, and LF. "Replacement level" means "free."
Tacoma isn't feeding us hitters yet. You need a band-aid vet or two.
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A BREATH OF AIR ABOVE THE SURF - With a killer rotation, all in the world Capt. Jack has to do is figure a way to cobble a 90 OPS+ and give his arms a chance to carry the ballclub.
SSI would, before even giving it an evening's thought, do these things for openers:
But there are many ways to scrounge up a 92 OPS+. You don't even need good players. The Mariners did it in 2009 without good players.
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=== Replacement Level ===
Every number you read on Fangraphs* is a condo share built on the plywood flooring called "Replacement Level Player."
An RLP is, by definition, "freely available talent." It is, by definition, talent that does not cost you anything important.
At DH, 1B, LF, and RF, all the experts agree that you should be able to find a 95-105 OPS+ hitter, with questionable but not bad defense, free.
If that premise is not true, none of the numbers on Fangraphs are accurate. We're supposed to be able to field a 650-run team for nothing!
So tell me. Is that true or isn't it? Are there 100-OPS+ guys for the asking at DH, or aren't there? Would some smart-aleck 'net rat simply inform Jack Zduriencik who this league-average DH bat is, because Jack and his staff can't find the guy.
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Gimme a 90 OPS+ offense or admit to me that the RL concept is a shibboleth.
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BABVA,
Dr D
That's supposed to be the easiest position on the diamond to fill since it's...not even on the diamond. But we can't find one. That's the one position where Z doesn't have to worry about a pretty glove...but he can't find it. We;re seriously entering bizarro-world at this point. How in the heck have we still not found a two-three year stopgap DH option since Edgar left? Can't we just pull ONE out of our butts like Texas does every freakin' year?
DFA Cust, move Bradley to DH and play Saunders everyday. That boosts our defense and provides some upside on offense.
We might have hoped at the outset that Cust would provide us with some production against RHP. It is difficult to see him being useful now, even in a platoon role.
I don't believe that the Mariners should be in the market for an OPS+90-100 bat. I believe that the Mariners may already have that in Michael Saunders (he started slow, but has been league-average the last two weeks). It seems irrational now to be denying Saunders at bats in favor of having Cust in the line up.
If we are worried about the psychological toll on the number 4 batter, then I propose that the Mariners put Figgins in the number 4 slot. He's not going to hit, regardless of where you place him in the line up, and he already appears to be psyched out. ...so, consistent with our Hippocratic oath to first do no harm, drop Cust, play Saunders every game, and move Figgins to the #4 slot.
It couldn't hurt, and it just might remind Figgins that he plays a bat-first position.
I agree completely. If you have a historically bad offense, and you're determined to upgrade it, then how do you fail to adequately address DH? As you say, I can understand if you guess wrong once in a while on a stopgap player. But time after time after time after time? Z may be a genius (or may not), but he's caught Mariners-front-office-itis on this one.
I also agree that you're temporary solution (Bradley to DH, Saunders/Langerhans to full-time LF/CF or CF/LF, Cust to Dust), is the best that can be immediately achieved with the current roster. Then you add a RH OF bat. The one caveat is that Bradley might mope and revert to a non-factor with the bat. OK. If he does that, then sit him down until he either adjusts or you swallow the shrinking balance of what's due him and do a DFA or trade dump. He won't be here next year.
Kennedy will probably take Cust's ABs. Why wouldn't he? Wedge is well aware that he's the hottest bat on the team.
Can't really judge based on what they do now that they're so shorthanded.
There are some interesting times, lineup-wise, that are about to develop. In three or four days, when Smoak returns, Kennedy becomes a DH. He is hot, still can square the ball up and needs to play everyday right now. Signing Cust for one season was always stupid because he simply blocked younger bats that needed the swings. Soon he will be blocking our hottest bat. Cust will then sit....or pack his bags.
In about 2 weeks, Z HAS TO pull the trigger on Ackley (3 hits last night, avg. up to .266/OPB .373). We've got the extra year out of him, to be any more greedy that that is brain-dead stupid. At that point, when Ackley is up, we have another Wak-Figgy collision about to occur. Figgins is just crappy with the bat right now. Mendoza line crappy. He can't continue to bat at the top of the lineup. Even if the M's want to hi-lite his "abilities" in a tradebait situation. So...who does Z back this time? I'm willing to bet that Wedge has already approached Z about that situation.
Best solution? Z swallows his pride, Figgy sits, Rodriguez swings a away. Liklihood of that? Not much. Z sold his General Managerial soul for Figgy, twice! 3 times is a charm.
Saunders ain't killing us. He hasn't made any hi-lite reel plays in center, but I really don't remember a ball that he didn't get that I was sure Guti would have. Langerhans has 5 hits and 3 taters. He won't hit more than 3 HR's the rest of the season. Right now his role is as "Designated Walker." I suppose that has some value. But not much. I would rather see anybody at AAA get his AB's. I don't see much difference in Saunders swing, perhaps a bit less loopy..He just doesn't seem to be a hitter who is ever going to threaten 120 OPS+. He might get to 110, in his career year.....maybe. Would probably need a short porch to do that. But, he's young and needs the PA's. Either that or give them to a Tacoma guy.
Bradley is a "hale fellow, well met" right now. Can it continue? Unlikely. But he needs to be in the lineup everyday until he breaks, physically or mentally (one of which will happen).
Ryan is as advertised.
Olivo more and more reminds me of Johhny Bench. When Bench was 46 years old, of course!
Z. Give us some hope. Bench the crappy bats. Bring up the future star. Pink slip the dead weight. Get what you can for Figgy. Heck, a pastrami on rye would be nice.
moe
When Smoak gets back, Kenedy is the starting second baseman except against lefties when Luis Rodriguez is the starting second baseman. Wilson can back up Ryan at short or get DFA'd.
Today's lineup is Cust-free.
Minimally, he should never statr against any lefty. So this is to be expected.
Smoak is looking more and more like the real deal with each passing at bat. Today...first day back from bereavement, and he lines out on a rocket to left, HOMERS on a rocket to left, grounds out sharply to third...gets in hitters counts most of the night and generally makes Jack Cust look like a fat old 50-something.
Now...call up Ackley, bench Ryan and move Wilson back to short, platooning with Rodriguez, and give Kennedy some of Figgins' at bats please. Oh...and DFA Cust and move Bradley to DH when Guti gets healthy.
His defense has been really good recently and he is picking it up with the stick. It isnt like Wilson is going gandbusters on offense, he is the one to DFA when Ack comes up. Plus I like how Ryan works the count. Now if instead of swinging at ball four and grounding out or king he would take it it would be even better, but as Olivo, Yuni, JLo and oh so many others have shown us evening getting to a 3 ball count for a Mariner is some what of an achievement.