Don't look back ... somethin' might be gainin' on ya

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See also:  Felix Now With the Mariano Rivera Cutter?

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=== The King ... Invades ===

Two starts ago, threw 14 Mariano Rivera cutters.  Last start, he threw two that I could discern.  Tonight in NYY, he threw 19.

The F/X system can't even begin to classify Felix' cutter against his changeup and slider; we did it by hand, looking at clusters in his strike zone graphs.  The slider was as effective as Rivera's are.  They produced roughly the same results.

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Consider the first cut fastball that Felix threw on the evening, on a 1-2 count to ARod in the first:

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We're talking about pitch #4 above.  The pitch came down the hill right at the black, jam pitch in on the hands.  

Now, a normal Felix fastball (or change) will sail armside about 8 inches, so after seven years, ARod reads this pitch as breaking wayyyy inside for a called ball.  A Felix slider would come in 5 MPH slower and would be dropping.  This pitch came in at 91 MPH, fastball velo, and obviously was going to be close to a foot inside after the run.

Except it simply didn't run during the last 10-20 feet.  It had exactly zero armside run, stayed on the plate, and bit the corner.  Strike three called.

Now supposing next time ARod swings at that pitch, but it's a normal Felix 2-seam fastball and it does run 8" in off the plate?  You ballplayers can correct me if I'm wrong, but I've never heard of any way to differentiate, by the spin, between a 91 MPH two-seamer with run and a 91 MPH cut fastball without run.  Pitchers don't throw "cutters" at the same speed as their two-seamer, right?

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The second cutter that Felix threw was the next pitch, the one leading off the second inning.  

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It was an 89 MPH "fastball" that started on the black; the normal armside run would have taken it 8 to 10" outside -- which, for Felix, is "WAY outside."  Except, because of the cutting action, it just didn't fade.  It stayed arrow-straight and caught the outside corner, according to the home plate ump.  The count was 0-1 on Teixeira.

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It's not clear to what extent Felix intended the exact effects that we just described.  It seems he did, though he may have been intuiting it differently.  (On the broadcast, Mike Blowers was having considerable difficulties explaining verbally what the F/X numbers meant on Felix' changeup, but of course if Blowers were in the batters' box he would know definitely what the movement was, in visual terms.)

Is Felix now -- in his second game ever using it -- cutting the fastball to catch the left side of the black and leave hitters wondering what happened to the fade?  At least intuitively, that's precisely what he's doing.

Remember the general rule that, after you add a new move (say, a hook shot) to your basketball game, it's going to be a while before it incorporates seamlessly.  It won't be the first few games, that you react quickly and explosively to the seams in the defense, with all your new moves.

Felix has been throwing the Rivera cutter for two games. 

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The fastball got hit a couple of times, as did the curve.  But the changeup and the cut fastball were, as expected, automatic strikes and outs.

Felix has added that #5 pitch, and it ranks #2 among his arsenal of weapons.  I want to see the eephus pitch now...

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Felix gave up four runs tonight, threw a pitch that Rauuuuul hit, which bloated his ERA to 2.29.  Get over it.  Felix leaps plateau after plateau, spiralling off into his own universe of baseball experimentation, art and science.

And by the way ... why would Felix stop at five pitches?  Clemens added a forkball, right?  Is Hasegawa going to teach him a shuuto?  There is only one pitcher in baseball history I would truly compare to Felix Hernandez, and that would be Satchel Paige.

Jangle gently when you walk,

Dr D