If we're allowed a handful of Mancala seeds to put on the board marking true Junior-level amateurs, then I remember placing five or six in my day...

1. Junior

2. ARod

3. Lincecum

4. Strasburg

5. Ichiro*

6. Matsuzaka*

Those were non-MLB players that we guaranteed for ML success long before they got to the majors.

There were probably a couple of others I forget about now, per Sandy's selective-memory principle.  

Godzilla, I think.   Ben Grieve I thought was going to be Stan Musial or something, after his AAA exploits.  Then again, it's not like Grieve failed to become a major league player.  Felix Hernandez was considered by most of us to be like The Best Pitching Prospect Ever.  The next guy who comes along reported to throw 97 mph, with plus command and three great secondary pitches, we'll probably be on his bandwagon, too.  I was pretty scared of Todd Greene for awhile there after he hit 25 homers in 250 AB's in AAA as a catcher.

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But SSI isn't in the habit of marking ANY high-school players as can't-misses, short of ARod ("one of these days Alex is going to hit 60 homers with a .400 AVG" - one GM back then) ....college players have to be men-among-boys to apply for the Lincecum visa ...  Cuban players you're always careful on.

To be a true can't-miss prospect you've got sabermetrics first, which is why Stephen Strasburg is a platypus.  If you're going to call a HS player a can't-miss then the high-schooler is a no-brainer for EVERYbody.  :- )

It's fine to say that there's no such thing as a pitching prospect, but Lincecum, Strasburg and Matsuzaka were special cases.  It's fine to be aware of the general principle (can't-miss prospects are overhyped), but you can't be shackled by it, either.  Sydd Finch actually can't miss.

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On the second rung you've got the Josh Hamiltons, Josh Becketts, B.J. Uptons, Delmon Youngs, that level... guys who would be first in a 3-to-5-year draft... these are guys you assign what, a 50% chance of becoming impact ML players.

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Dustin Ackley might not be too far below that, in terms of % chance of being a good ML player.  Ackley is a worthy #1 pick in most years, a lefthand 80-HIT batter who's going to disappoint if he doesn't help his major-league club.

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Aroldis Chapman is a roll-of-the-dice for me, below Ackley in terms of % chance of success, but are A.J. Burnett or Brad Penny less of a risk?

All the caveats do apply on Chapman, and the first thing we wrote about him was that he's no Stephen Strasburg.

But there's something different about Chapman:  he's lefthanded and he throws with Sabathia if not Randy Johnson velocity.   Go to fangraphs.com > leaders > pitchers > starters > pitch type > sort by FBv, and point out every lefthand starter in the bigs, with a hot fastball, who isn't effective.

I don't call Chapman a can't-miss guy, but he's not an ordinary #5 draft pick, either.

Cheers,

Dr D