January 2017
China is causing a sudden stir in world soccer
Posted by jschario on 01/31/17
Posted to blog
Years ago, when David Beckham left soccer's richest club, Real Madrid, to sign with the Los Angeles Galaxy in MLS, many thought the the US league would be Europe's top competitor for the world's best talent. However if this January transfer window has proven anything, it's that China instantly leapfrogged the MLS with its bottomless pockets.
While the MLS has only been able to attract Europe's stars after they are noticeably past their prime, the Chinese league is luring talent young and old with its ability to pay eight figure salaries without batting an eye lash. Even if MLS's top clubs... Read More
alternatively, you could focus on a stiff front side
Posted by jemanji on 01/31/17
Posted to blog
6 Comments
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My adult son has a really good outside shot in basketball. He's kind of the Steph Curry of our local YMCA-type basketball group. On a decent night he'll go 30-for-50 from high school three point range, while being guarded by the best defender on the court.
I've spent ten years picking his brain about shooting. You know how I am about sports method ... but I just can't do what he does. (And at my age it is fast becoming a lost cause!) He said something the other day that hit me in a fresh way.
He said, "Try a slight smile on your face when you shoot. You gotta be a little bit happy to... Read More
This fantasy has been a profound disappointment, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/31/17
Posted to blog
55 Comments
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A longtime pillar of the SSI community sent in an interesting political link. He can identify himself below if so inclined. As we know, it's good to be sensitive about identity
;- )
Scott Adams writes the Dilbert comic and also writes very "fresh," smart, intriguing business / political material. Today he wrote an article, "Is President Trump Doing Management Wrong?" Our SSI amigo was curious about how this article would look from ... wait for it ... a chessplayer's lens.
Heh!
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=== STIPULATED ===
Trump is not cut from the same cloth as was George Washington. He's not even cut from... Read More
Depth is an issue
Posted by jschario on 01/29/17
Such a tease these Huskies are, with NBA ready talent, yet they crack like a high school team.
Traveling to Tuscon to try the impossible and defeat the seventh-ranked Arizona Wildcats, they blew a lead they held into the second half and ended up losing by double digits. Reflecting on the loss on the way back home to Seattle, they should blame no one but themselves.
As their lead slipped and deficit increased, all too familiar weaknesses showed themselves. Despite having elite talent in uniform, their fundamentals shot them in the foot. For years this team has had inexplicable troubles at the... Read More
Posted by jschario on 01/29/17
Posted to blog
At a time when league leaders Real Madrid were in the midst of their lowest point over a calendar year, their bitter rivals in Cataluña failed to keep pace Sunday. On the road against middle of the table team Real Betis, Barça trekked back home with only one point - and somewhat controversially.
Alex Alegria put the hosts ahead with a goal after the Blaugrana only managed two shots on goal in the first half. However Barcelona were denied a goal that replays showed had clearly crossed the goal line. Moments later with the game clock winding down the closing minutes, Leo Messi assisted Luis... Read More
No, not that Edgar
Posted by jemanji on 01/28/17
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9 Comments
The Mariners' "mysterious" press conference was held. That in itself was pretty cool.
At it, they announced that --- > after long deliberation, they have decided to --- > wait for it --- > RETIRE. EDGAR'S. NUMBER. No word on environmental impact studies out of CWU, but the blowback was minimal.
The brass been discussing it a long time, and when Edgar's HOF percent hit 59, well... if baseball's Hall of Fame is going to elect you, you're probably a serious candidate for Mariner myth and legend. Dr. D has seen Precious in his day, but slap him silly and call him shirley. You'd been... Read More
Posted by jschario on 01/28/17
Posted to blog
With the 20th week of games for the Spanish league underway, both of Madrid's teams find themselves looking for answers. In Chamartín, Real Madrid have suddenly fallen back down to Earth after their long unbeaten streak, and it will be interesting to see if Zinedine Zidane can get them back off the ground this week against Real Sociedad. La Real (Sociedad) has proven to be a thorn in the side of all the leading La Liga clubs the last couple of years, most recently giving Barcelona a tough challenge to even come away with points.
On the Manzanares, Atlético Madrid failed to secure three points... Read More
or it is smily
Posted by jemanji on 01/27/17
Posted to blog
13 Comments
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BaseballHQ is still selling its Baseball Forecaster on your mobile device for $16. In its "Roto Pitching 101" section it included this little table ... whoop, no way that will copy in. You know what? Think I'll go ahead and type it.
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ERA
K/BB Ratio
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0 to 1
6.22
5.98
6.81
6.31
7.71
1.1 to 1.5
5.03
4.91
4.97
5.23
5.51
1.6 to 2.0
Trust me
4.66
2.1 to 2.5
4.09
and so forth
4.30
2.6 to 3.0
4.02
3.1 to 3.5
3.67
yada yada
3.95
3.6 to 4.0
3.34
3.51
4.1+
3.12
2.86
2.92
3.07
3.30
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Yeah, no shtick, Sherlock...
This is the 4th generation of Ph.D.... Read More
they just don't make 'em like this any more
Posted by jemanji on 01/27/17
Posted to blog
2 Comments
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Oh, not that Diller? Oh. They DO make 'em like DILLON any more. 's OK, Tacoma Rain has the Exec Sum for us:
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Ariel Miranda - #6 starter, who Dipoto said he expects his stuff to play in the bullpen
Marc Rzepczynski - spoken about above, but proven LOOGY.
Zac Curtis - the little guy with long hair that just gets punch outs - Mariner's press guide per Shannon
Dean Kiekhefer - among the best in the minors getting lefties out - Justin Hollander, M's Director of Baseball Operations
James Pazos - fireballer with minor league closing experience
Dillon Overton - 105 K's / 31 W's in 125 innings... Read More
Trust yer instincts, not yer instruments ... errrr ...
Posted by jemanji on 01/26/17
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24 Comments
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As y'know, we live to serve. :: shower of crumpled Dixie cups ::
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THEORY, Dept.
My first thought on the Seattle Mariners bullpen is that the Mariners have a lot of draws at the holds deck -- at least 6-7 really good draws. But these are lottery tickets, not established (minor) stars. It's a little bit philosophical, how comfortable you are with a Stars & Scrubs team in which the bullpen consists of scrubs. Back in 1995-1997, I argued that bullpens aren't as big a deal as Seattle fans thought. The evidence came in against me on that one.
Full disclosure: I dislike the idea that... Read More
How is JeDi doing on the relievers, his having Been one?
Posted by jemanji on 01/26/17
Posted to blog
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In the previous article, Dr. D opined that the Mariners' 2017 bullpen would be an admirable attempt to cobble a bullpen out of zero money. Problem is, the M's are paying very nice money to their two platoon setup guys. ... Well, $6M to a reliever used to be nice money. Could be that I'm stuck in 1997 dollars.
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MARK RZEPCZYNSKI
You and I know what WE see when we look at a guy like Zip. The whole point of going over to Ron Shandler is that he has ZERO emotional engagement. No matter how objective you are, and Dr. Detecto is beatifically so, you are still not allowed to perform heart... Read More
Posted by jschario on 01/25/17
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1 Comments
The Pete Carroll era in Seattle has brought us Seattle sports fans something previously completely foreign to us, perennial championship contenders. Yes obviously they won one Lombardi trophy, and are the only Seattle team other than the Sonics in the '70's to make back-to-back championship games.
These Hawks have made Seattle a consistent part of the national sports conversation, and are visible across the country in ads and in the primetime games; not to mention about a half-dozen Seattle sports icons. They've won at least one playoff game in five straight seasons now, not to mention a few... Read More
who's to say a 5.89 ERA will outweigh a 3.89 one
Posted by jemanji on 01/25/17
Posted to blog
9 Comments
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=== SMYLY ===
Drew Smyly. Is. Good.
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=== GALLARDO ===
BaseballHQ has the following eval, which we'll gingerly slip in here:
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Missed two months with shoulder injury after rough April, but things hardly improved upon return. Posted career-worst Cmd (K/BB), BPV (overall component skills index), and xERA (predicted not real ERA), while FpK (first-pitch strikes - Dr. D) continues to speak to strained relationship with strike zone. The pitcher you remember from 2009-12 no longer exists. It's time to move on.
Prediction: 1.47 WHIP, -$4 roto in 160 IP
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There was a thought floated on... Read More
Here's To YOU, J. A. Smiley
Posted by DaddyO on 01/23/17
4 Comments
A day or so ago a relative with a historical bent sent me an email with an attached PDF informing me that I had a great, great, great, (count ‘em, THREE) grandfather named J. A. Smiley who:
A) had the same first and middle name as mine (the last name was different because the ancestry traces through my grandmother), and
B) was the subject of an attached US Army military document.
The document has a picture of a man in uniform (I would post it, but I am not at liberty to do so). A rather dour-looking figure, he is identified at the top as a participant in the War of 1812, as having the rank... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/23/17
Posted to blog
4 Comments
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G-Money sez,
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Edgar is having a press conference tomorrow
Greg Johns @GregJohnsMLB 11m11 minutes ago
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Mariners announce a 2:30 pm PT press conference at Safeco tomorrow with team president Kevin Mather and hitting coach Edgar Martinez.
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Hope everything's all right and he's not retiring. If they want to retire his number before he gets in the Hall, that would be great. He's already got an award and a street named after him.
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And a cantina. Which is the senior award, your number retired or your name in 4' neon letters, the first thing you see from... Read More
stifle y'self, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/23/17
Posted to blog
9 Comments
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Moe sez,
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I'm not trying to beat a dead horse, Wish. Really. But if having three 85 OPS+ glovey OF's and gaining the offense elsewhere was a recipe for the playoffs then it sould have been done more often. DiPoto isn't THAT smart.
Seager just had his career year. Segura just had his, by a mile. Cruz just had his 2nd best year ever. His best was in '15. Cano just hit a career high in HR's. I would suggest there is more room for some drop-off than there is for improvement (or maintenance), from those 4. I'm most confident that Seager doesn't drop much. I am least confient that... Read More
all blessings to his family and friends
Posted by jemanji on 01/23/17
Posted to blog
1 Comments
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Sincerest compassion for Ventura's family, teammates, as well as the 'sickened' fans at Royals Review, and others who care deeply. Jeff Sullivan has a surprisingly good article in memoriam.
Not that it would ever be surprising for Sullivan to be good, but, he was willing to Go There on several thoughts that are sometimes considered verboten. Mixing my own thoughts with Jeff's:
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(1) Many condolences. C.S. Lewis once pointed out that a man is more concerned with his own 5 minutes' real toothache than he is with a tsunami halfway across the world. That's certainly true of me. About 150... Read More
Posted by jschario on 01/22/17
This weekend it was announced that former Husky star Quincy Pondexter will be inducted into the Pac-12 Hall of honor, a reminder of the days when Husky basketball was still as relevant on the court as it is on the recruiting trail. Now their co-hosts at Hec Ed Pavilion are experiencing their own golden age, with the Husky women ranked no. 8 in the country, a season after they played Cinderella at the NCAA Women's Tournament, making it to the Final Four.
Lorenzo Romar has been a marvel recruiting the best talent to Montlake, successfully keeping the Seattle area's best recruits home and... Read More
Defense is all about effort, as any coach will tell ya
Posted by jemanji on 01/21/17
Posted to blog
9 Comments
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For those who just joined us, John Dewan runs the fielding side of Bill James' website. (Dewan has long been one of the most noted sabermetricians quite aside from his current shtuff at BJOL.) His latest article is on Jerry Dipoto's deals this offseason.
Dewan points out that Dipoto's winter trades now total 11, and that these have turned over half the M's starting lineup, 4 out of 8 positions. True, you could say it's 4 out of 9, counting Boomstick at DH, but then again I could say that it's 5 out of 10, counting both the first base players. ...
Dewan's defensive system, which is my own... Read More
Lose back-to-back after 40 straight no defeats
Posted by jschario on 01/21/17
Posted to blog
Real Madrid face a situation that they have not seen in about 12 months, that is hoping back into the La Liga race coming off back-to-back losses. And of course as is typical with a rough patch at the Bernabeu, fans have plenty of blame to dispense as they see fit.
Coming off a loss in domestic league play to Sevilla on Sunday, Madrid came back home to the capital to host Galician side Celta Vigo. Vigo did surprise some people last season, nabbing a Europa league spot in the process.
However they lost their best player in Nolito, who jumped at the chance to play for Pep Guardiola at... Read More
How nervous should we be?
Posted by jemanji on 01/20/17
Posted to blog
13 Comments
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Moe has a good read on Haniger, one cubicle to the right, "Hold Your Horses." He points out Haniger's fluky BABIP last year, points out that Haniger is our Big Hope on outfield offense, and points out that the collateral offense in 2017 grows rather thin if Haniger doesn't come through. I'll cheerfully admit that I hadn't fully stared into the abyss of a 2017 Mariner offense if Mitch Hanger bats .171.
SABRMatt, in the comments, chides Dr. D for not making Mitch Haniger a Best Bet. Of course I will! Mitch Haniger is hereby anointed a SABRMatt Best Bet ...
The SBB Award went to Haniger... Read More
Another look at Haniger
Posted by moethedog on 01/20/17
11 Comments
Let me start with this, I like Haniger.
I know about the bashing AAA partial season. I know about the light-speed exit velocity. I know about the late improvement and promise. He's got all that. In spades. But it doesn't make him a 105 OF, and we need one of those, even with our glovey whippets in the OF. Playoff teams have one of 'em, you will remember.
And I like the kid. Really.
But there are concerns, you must admit. Exit velocity? Sure it was impressive (93.6 Avg. EV), but just above him on the list were Mac Williamson, Rickie Weeks and Josh Rutledge. Hardly a Murderes' Row,... Read More
when do pitchers and catchers report, again?
Posted by jemanji on 01/20/17
Posted to blog
2 Comments
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Baseball Forecaster is available for only 15 bucks on a digital download. Here y'go amigo.
We can't, and shouldn't, paste in copywrited info. The latent ideas are another matter. There's nothing wrong with Blog Y writing, "Dr. Detecto says that Yovani Gallardo blows chunks and Dr. D thinks that about any junkballer who walks five guys a game. Dr. D is cracked because Gallardo used to win twelve games." Not only is there nothing wrong with that, there's everything right with it. :- )
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Forecaster is interested in home runs this year. Remember, they're primarily a fantasy baseball... Read More
not that Helen Mirren is that small of a favor ...
Posted by jemanji on 01/20/17
Posted to blog
2 Comments
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Bill James Online, only $3 per month. The last 25 Hey Bills are free teaser-trailers:
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[Question about evaluating the umpires]
Well, it's not something that I know a lot about. In the 1990s the umpires in baseball were totally out of control, just doing stuff that was borderline crazy. Each umpire was making up his own strike zone--and would talk about it openly, as if HE was the rulebook.
In 1999 the umpires went on strike. Baseball used replacement umpires--and it was immediately obvious that the replacement umpires, many of whom were complete amateurs, were DRAMATICALLY... Read More
after all, if it ain't about the writers, who IS it about
Posted by jemanji on 01/20/17
Posted to blog
5 Comments
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Arne sez,
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Raines probably got dinged a bit in the MVP voting because of him using cocaine; similarly, Dave Parker did not do well in the HOF voting. It's part of the interesting question of how much players should be penalized for using illegal performance non-enhancing drugs, and other criminal actions.
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Well, the writers LIKED Tim Raines.
Sometimes it is difficult to make a truly fair judgment when comparing one criminal action vs. another. In the 1960's and 1970's, "speed" was eaten like candy according to several of the autobiographies of the era. How do you WEIGHT your "moral... Read More
ROOTing for shorter baseball games, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/20/17
Posted to blog
5 Comments
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Interesting back-and-forth in the "Moto Down 46%?" thread. MtGrizzly says,
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At some point, the cable TV operators and TV content creators are going to realize that it's the commercials that are largely causing people to cut the cord. Channel bloat is a big piece as well but it's the commercials that really irritate people. I cut the cord a while ago but I'm staying in temporary "corporate" housing in San Diego and it comes with Cable TV. It's kind of maddening to watch programming with commercials once you've seen it without.
The commercial interruption strategy that I'm least fond of:... Read More
Thursday Morning Tazoberry, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/19/17
Posted to blog
1 Comments
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=== I GOT ONE THING TA SAY, Dept. ===
The Rangers' run differential last year was 765-757. The year before it was 751-733. They did win 95 and 88 games to make the playoff both years, so apparently they "know how to win." ... But I'd rather face a team with mystical knowledge than one that scores lots of runs.
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=== THE MOST IMPORTANT THING YOU'LL READ ALL MORNING ===
Read an archive around the 'net that listed player-pairs who are easy to confuse. They had:
Lenny Randle and Elliott Maddox
Abner Doubleday and Alexander Cartwright :- )
A.J. Burnett and Ryan Dempster
Jake Westbrook and... Read More
goody gumdrops, a game of Guess the Connection
Posted by jemanji on 01/19/17
Posted to blog
4 Comments
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SABRMatt celebrates Tim Raines by listing him the #3 ballplayer of the 1980's. Moe follows on,
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Rock Raines was a tremendous ballplayer, wasn't he. There was a year or two or three where I felt he was the best player in the game. From '82-'87 he was a tremendous bat, on base more than 40% of the time AND he was stealing 70 bases a season. Oh, he was a 50+ XB hit guy, too.
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Seattle Sports Insider is building an inclusive environment; the moral beauty of the website is that literally anybody can force a comment on others (Make the Shout Box Great Again!). In that spirit, even I have an... Read More
Making ... Simmons? ... see Zych
Posted by jemanji on 01/19/17
Posted to blog
4 Comments
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In Greg Johns' latest mailbox, he gives the following three pitchers as candidates for setup work behind Edwin Diaz:
1) Dan Altavilla (SSI LINK) (And here's a cool link with Edwin Diaz quotes on Altavilla)
2) Tony Zych, who should be healthy sez Johns (?!) :: crowd goes wild :: (SSI LINK)
3) Shae Simmons (NO SSI LINK AS YOU NO DOUBT HAVE PAINFULLY RUED ALL WEEK)
That's after you talk about the two highly-paid guys, of course, Cishek and Rzepczynski. Never mind. Jerry Dipoto advertises Simmons as "sitting 96-100 with a wipeout slider" which, by a strange coincidence, is an exact match... Read More
Avoid getting stagnant
Posted by jschario on 01/18/17
Posted to blog
In his first press conference since suffering the season ending loss to Atlanta last weekend, head coach Pete Carroll emphasized that with this group of players, despite being in their prime superstars, he was pondering bringing in players to push them and give them some competition. His reasoning behind this philosophy is that he wants to avoid complacency among his players.
He should look for his coaching staff to avoid complacency. In particular, Tom Cable and Darrell Bevell. For Cable, his critique is short: stop using the offensive line as a science experiment - at least with left tackle... Read More
Drop all three points
Posted by jschario on 01/16/17
Posted to blog
It had to end sometime, and that sometime was Sunday for Real Madrid. Playing Sevilla for the third time in 10 days, on the road no less, they dropped all three points and only have themselves to blame.
Sevilla, who many may be surprised to know sit in second-place in La Lga ahead of Barcelona, had lost the last two matches against Real Madrid. Both matches were in the Copa del Rey tournament, therefore it would be reasonable to expect Sevilla was looking to exact some revenge against Los Blancos.
For over half the match neither team was able to put the ball in the back of the net. That is... Read More
Posted by jschario on 01/15/17
Posted to blog
3 Comments
Yesterday's day started out with all the hope in the world, with the offense doing exactly what they needed to do and opened up by engineering a long drive that ended with six points. That drive seemed to set the tone, as they ate up yards on the ground and in the air. It seemed to say, "We're here and ready to trade blows."
The Hawks seemed to have all facets of the game running according to plan, with the defense keeping the Falcons out of the end zone on their opening drive and even Devin Hester turning in a throwback performance. There was a point when many at home probably thought that... Read More
giddy with joy and we haven't even touched the Shae Simmons box
Posted by jemanji on 01/14/17
Posted to blog
11 Comments
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If you hadn't caught it yet, Eno Sarris just published an analysis that says Drew Smyly might have figured out how to bring his homer rate down. In the spirit of inter-blog detente, we'll leave alone the article's assertion that the saber writer was key to Smyly's second half, havving informed Smyly that he shouldn't throw down-and-in to left hand hitters ... :- )
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1) LOCATION - Smyly's 2016 homer rate was double against lefties in the first half, because he was missing into their wheelhouses. "After the interview" he moved from low-in to middle-up and the lefties stopped tattoo'ing... Read More
Posted by jschario on 01/14/17
Posted to blog
On a weekend where the league leaders - Real Madrid - would be facing a stiff test and risking points, Barcelona and Atlético Madrid did what they were supposed to do. Two-thirds of Spain's Big Three clubs played Saturday, and both took all three points in front of them.
Neither team were playing a team the caliber of second-place Sevilla, therefore they could not afford to lose or tie when Real is as likely as ever to drop some. Simply playing the probability of a 40-match no loss streak on the line against a team that they will have played three times in the past 10 days.
Barcelona laid a... Read More
Posted by jschario on 01/14/17
Posted to blog
1 Comments
No doubt today's game is going to be exponentially tougher than last Saturday's 26-6 win over Detroit. This Falcons team has more stars playing on another level anyone on Detroit, and we bet on them being coached up well since our former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is at the helm. Not to mention the game is being held in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
Don't expect this Falcons D to be pushed around by our offensive line, because no, we did not have a break through. Rather last week was a perfect alignment of the stars, and there were no All-Pros like Vic Beasley waiting at the... Read More
if Dr D isn't careful he'll burn himself on the, um, hot stove
Posted by jemanji on 01/13/17
Posted to blog
8 Comments
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Quite a few new amigos who have pulled up a chair around the pipestove. They've been throwing good-sized potatoes into the hobo stew. Not that being interesting is a prereq for joining the conversation!, as the lead author has demonstrated many times. Still:
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SODIUM RANCH SEZ
Is this wishful thinking? As re. comps; do I see a little bit of Cliff Lee?
Disclaimer being that I'm a fan of Smyly's for some reason, and am thrilled at the get.
Can someone with a keener eye for Pitcher Families bring me back down to earth or should i just go ahead and order the jersey?
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Visually I can see... Read More
I'll take that bet, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/13/17
Posted to blog
16 Comments
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Diderot pointed out,
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I can't remember where I read it, but recently one of the sites talked about the unprecedented nature of FanGraphs' WAR projection for the M's this season.
The thought was that it is not uncommon for an aging star to lose much of his WAR value in a single season. It happens.
But what is uprecedented is this: between Cano, Cruz, Segura and Seager, the projection is that COLLECTIVELY those four will lose about half of their 2016 WAR (46%) this year. Not to say that's impossible--but that it's unpredictable. It's collective worst case scenario on a grand scale.
So let... Read More
Dr. D basks in Smyly's 9K glory
Posted by jemanji on 01/12/17
Posted to blog
5 Comments
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Reaching into a bag to pick a loooonnnnng list of linx:
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Drew Smyly a massive get for M's. Solid but unlucky in 16; hitters batted unrealistically high .331 AVG-.379 SLG on ground. 3S w/upside. - Tony Blengino
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Blengino's usual "quality of ball off the bat" camera angle jibes with mine. These particular two days, I'm not in "prove it in a court of law" mode, just baseball chat mode. Just watching him pitch, it seems to me there is all kinds of room for him to throw a 9.0 / 2.5 / 0.7 season, doing nothing other than getting some luck. Which was his slash line in 2012-13 for the Tigers,... Read More
all's well that ends well, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/11/17
Posted to blog
31 Comments
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Mariners.org sums it up concisely:
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In the Mariners' first deal of the day, a four-player swap with the Braves, Seattle added Shae Simmons and speedy outfielder Mallex Smith -- who was then sent to the Rays in the four-player trade for Smyly.
Seattle gave up a pair of Minor League left-handers to the Braves in Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows. Gohara, 20, was Seattle's No. 5-ranked prospect, per MLBPipeline.com. Burrows was ranked No. 25.
The Mariners then sent left-hander Ryan Yarbrough -- their No. 13 prospect -- and Minor League shortstop Carlos Vargas to Tampa Bay along with Smith to... Read More
pictured below: the joy of anticipation, personified
Posted by jemanji on 01/11/17
Posted to blog
51 Comments
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At the end of 2017, we Mariners fans are fully expecting a scene in which Guillermo Heredia performs a miracle in left field for the last out of Game Five. Edgar and his lovely wife will kiss in a pose like the sailor on the Life cover. And Rob Whalen, drenched in sparkling apple cider, will accept ESPN's award for Player of the Postseason.
It had better be so, because comparing our rotation to twelve months ago:
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2016
2017
Paxton
Paxton
Felix
Felix
Iwakuma
Iwakuma
TAIJUAN
WADE MILEY (SP-3 Boston)
KKKARNS
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In the three blank slots we've got AAA pitchers and one soft-tosser with a 4.7... Read More
you gotta giiive a little... taaaake a little ... and let your pore heart breaaaak a little
Posted by jemanji on 01/11/17
Posted to blog
4 Comments
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The comments threads have been getting way, WAY out of hand. Dr. D had been wondering what it felt like, to be a Manhattan real estate huckster sitting in a conference room with a half dozen James Mattises glaring over the table at you... in the immortal words of Billy Martin replaying the Pine Tar thing: "Wait, this is like a real game?!"
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PHOENIX GUY SEZ
[Link to comment with table of stolen base kings who never got caught]
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$$ Instead of using the failed Seth Smith, the MARINERS will become baseball's great magnet for GARY REDUS COMPS!! $$ (note the 140 characters) (No, seriously... Read More
my money's on the sabr guy
Posted by jemanji on 01/11/17
Posted to blog
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Bob Dutton handicaps the pending free-for-all that will be the back of the Mariners' rotation. Cruelly, he leads with the thought that the reality could be alternative.
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"Pitching-staff wise, we’d still like to add," general manager Jerry Dipoto said last Friday after pulling off a pair of trades affecting the rotation. "We do have a little bit of room to be creative. "The resources have always been there for us to be aggressive when the opportunity arises."
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Dipoto goes on to list his OWN six-person bullet list, with Dutton's annotations being
(1) Ariel Miranda - may be needed in... Read More
diving into 450 AB's for the M's?
Posted by jemanji on 01/09/17
Posted to blog
8 Comments
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Sherminator sez,
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Turns out Dyson creates his WAR in a little less than 300PAs per year, on average. That is a very low comitment in exchange for a starter's output of value. Jarrod Dyson the benchie is a championship caliber 4th-outfielder/pinch-runner, literally.
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Fangraphs has him at 12.6 career WAR in 1,539 AB's, which isn't even three full seasons' worth of at bats. Baseball-reference WAR has him at 12.8 over the same time period. This means one of two things: (1) Nobody knows what is happening in baseball, or (2) Nobody knows what is happening with Jarrod Dyson. Giancarlo... Read More
infield or outfield, there's a place in the game for defenders
Posted by jemanji on 01/09/17
Posted to blog
13 Comments
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SABRMatt sez,
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Dyson's value isn't limited to the singles, nor the glove. When we look at this outfield, we are talking about it as though the 80/85/90 OPS+ we're praying for are the full sum of their offensive abilities.Haniger, Dyson, and Martin are all plus baserunners. How many times, in the 2016 season, did we get two on with none out and then fail to score because no one could take an extra base and everyone kept hitting into DPs or flying out with no advances or whiffing.The whiffing part isn't totally fixed, but the speed component matters to DiPoto (and to me)...that has real... Read More
Posted by jschario on 01/08/17
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3 Comments
So does this mean that the Seahawks are back? Saturday's game sure looked like vintage, Pete Carroll-era Seahawks football. Russell threw it only 30 times, passing for 13 first downs and two touchdowns while remaining relatively upright. Wilson was sacked only three times.
However the big story is Thomas Rawls, rushing for 161 yards on 27 carries, answering the call and essentially putting the offense on his back. Yesterday was a perfect example of how the Seahawks can dominate if they execute their game plan in all facets of the game. Rawls' performance next week will most certainly be a key... Read More
Now 39 matches unbeaten
Posted by jschario on 01/07/17
Posted to blog
As the calendar flipped from 2016 to 2017 it marked not only a new year, but January 4th marked the 365th day that Zinedine Zidane had taken over as Real Madrid manager for Rafa Benitez. Throughout those 365 days Zidane has received as much criticism as he has praise, winning titles and matches but not always with the pinaché that Real Madrid fans would like.
These Madrid fans can be quite the stick in the mud, but all in the Spanish capital seems to be positive vibes around Zidane now, could it simply be that the Spanish are in the holiday spirit? More likely its the now 39 matches since los... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/07/17
Posted to blog
3 Comments
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Nice to see Sherminator (and Asok). Sherm Sez
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In Defense of Dyson
Hey all. Not sure if anyone besides Doc remembers that I emerged from lurking last summer to moan sourly about the gap between the Mariners and the Rangers. Turns out the Mariners were the better team, but the Rangers got all the wins... maybe call that a push, as far as predictive analysis goes.
At the time, my main gripe was that the Rangers had athletes flying around the outfield, while Seth Smith looked like an average defensive outfielder only so long as he was standing still. After seeing one too many popup... Read More
a simpler strategy: flush the strikeouts down the toilet
Posted by jemanji on 01/06/17
Posted to blog
14 Comments
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If you liked Wade Miley, you'll love Yovani Gallardo. Let us take a moment to mourn the passing of Taijuan Walker and Nate Karns. I guess there really is something to the idea of a burned-out MLB(TM) innings eater. Gallardo becomes the proverbial "more usable" rotation fixture who will --- > pitch about as well as Taijuan or Karns did in a DOWN season.
If you are optimistic about a return to the form of 3 years ago, don't let me rain on your parade. :- ) But what the Mainframe is seeing is simply a lack of life on his fastball and slider, and a trend down that began at the All-Star... Read More
the second King of Spalding in as many offseasons
Posted by jemanji on 01/06/17
Posted to blog
13 Comments
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Q. Is Wily Mo correct that Dr. D is in a sour mood?
A. Bah humbug. More of the Elias-Carson and Leonydas type trades. :: shrug :: whatever, dude. If it brings Wily Mo back to the conversation threads, that's some consolation, at least.
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Q. Where does Dyson play?
A. The Mariners.org website says:
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Dipoto expects Dyson to play "fairly regularly" with some combination of him and Martin in left and center field most nights, with Haniger in right field and Gamel and Guillermo Heredia "fighting it out" for additional time. Haniger, Gamel and Heredia all have Minor League options as well... Read More
mighta missed this one in the general subdomain
Posted by jemanji on 01/04/17
Posted to blog
2 Comments
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Keith accidentally filed his sterling "Down on the Farm" post under the general domain, not under the baseball domain. I'm not able to re-post this one in the baseball area, especially without dinging the comments to it. So if you missed out ..., CLICK THIS LINK.
Comments should go in that stub, not this one. It's a chewy sabr look at the M's minors.
+1
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PSA: Klat is working on reverting to the old way of doing the Shout Box. Drive home safely amigos.
- Jeff
Hmmmmmmmmm.....
Posted by moethedog on 01/04/17
7 Comments
As I've said a bunch of times, I'm happier than a pig in the mud with our Young and Restless arms: Povse, Moore, Whalen, Heston, etc. Especially Moore and Povse. Super really especially those two. So I studyfied them and learned myself up.
Moore and Povse both did something pretty interesting last year, down on their respective AA Southern League farms (Jackson for Moore, Mississippi for Povse). Both were in their Age 22 seasons, both pitched at least 70 AA innings (108 and 70), both ran BB/9 rates of 1.5 and both had K/BB rates of at least 4.0.
So a hayseed like me, chewing on a blade... Read More
so that's what a two-run 3B looks like out of the box
Posted by jemanji on 01/04/17
Posted to blog
37 Comments
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One of my favorite weekly features is Greg Johns' mailbag. It might not be as nutrient-dense as the comments thread at a university blog, and might not be as lively as a NinersNation recap of Trent Baalke's career. But Johns usually succeeds in embedding a bit of info that you and I can use.
On Haniger today:
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What is the chance of Mitch Haniger being the everyday right fielder this season? Is his upside that good?-- Carlos C., Tampa
Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto is very high on Haniger, who he considered a key part of the Taijuan Walker - Jean Segura trade with the D-backs. At... Read More
and smile while you do it, mortal
Posted by jemanji on 01/04/17
Posted to blog
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Mike Petriello offers a rather un-roto-like buffet of 5 Breakout Candidates for 2017. Well, un-roto-like if you've played fantasy baseball before. True, not everybody has worn out the game for themselves. It's easy to imagine this article in a little starburst ad on the front cover of a "You Can Play Fantasy Baseball!" magazine.
It's a good read. Paxton is of course one of the five, and in Paxton's case he refutes his own title by asking "Did he ALREADY break out?" Whereupon 37% of his readers said yeah, and 63% said no. Nice to see that a full 37% of readers watched Zeus pitch.
...... Read More
There's a real shortage of 80-80-80 hitters
Posted by jemanji on 01/02/17
Posted to blog
2 Comments
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Moe sez,
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BTW: Frank Thomas came close to doing it in 7 straight seasons, from '91-'97. He missed by .002, .003 and .012 BA points in '91, '93, & '95. He's in, of course. But he had his great run just before the obvious juiced age.
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Yep. There are three guys I think of as Edgar's hitting comps: the Big Hurt, Manny Being Manny, and Miguel Cabrera. Interestingly all four players had a joyful approach to the game (though in distinctly various colors and tones!).
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Frank Thomas had the '91-97 run and the fact that a .318 AVG "doesn't count" for this stat, well, that's why I don't... Read More
which suspects fit the description right now? Probably none of 'em
Posted by jemanji on 01/02/17
Posted to blog
10 Comments
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Where do the contemporary hitters line up on this impossibly-difficult Edgar scale? 80 grade batting average and C the Z ... 80 grade walks and RC/27 ... 80 grade power and RBI.
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Joey Votto is even better than I thought he was. He has hit .315 / .433 / .540 the last eight years. How much do you care, though, that he lacks Edgar's consistency? It is impossible to imagine Prime Edgar slugging .409 in any season, as Votto did in 2014. And except for 2012, he's more of a .300 hitter from the left side, as opposed to Edgar raking for batting championships while crawling out of the right... Read More
And these days, so is the M's offense
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/16
Posted to blog
10 Comments
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1) I never got why fans "campaign" so hard for famous baseball players to get into the Hall of Fame. It's rather like watching the 40-year-old virgin campaign to get Justin Timberlake another babe. ...well, that didn't come out exactly right. But y'know.
1a) If it is part of helping the FAN enjoy baseball, fine.
1b) If there's one humble person who deserves to be exalted, it's Edgar.
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2) There was a stat on Dutton's Twitter feed: the idea of a .320/.420/.550 season. Five players in history did it for six years in a row: the three best players (Ruth, Teddy, Gehrig) and Rogers... Read More