June 2013
Hot times in the desert [for real] ... Names to drill into your skull: Elias, Taylor, Smith, Diaz ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/30/13
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Results of the "Future Finalists" vote when we get them.
AAA -- Las Vegas 4, Tacoma 1 -- Box
With all the low-hanging fruit stripped from the Rainier tree, it's up to hold-over stalwarts like Nate Tenbrink (26intheMix) and Rich Poythress (26intheMix) to hold down the offensive fort.
Mixed metaphor alert!
Both had a pair of hits Sunday, but Tacoma produced not a single extra-base hit (is that an oxymoron -- "single extra-base hit"?).
In other words, Brandon Maurer (Talk40 #9) had no offensive support, and he had a wobbly outing anyway: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.
AA -- Jackson 5,... Read More
Yer killin' me Pepper. The moment. Enjoy the moment?
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/13
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We don't say that the below two plays have bestowed Gold Glove status on the kid. What they do, is get across the personality that mesmerized Dr. D within the first five seconds of Miller's appearance on his Root TV screen. You go amig-O.
In the first inning of Miller's first game, Hisashi Iwakuma threw a shuuto to a lefty batter, who rolled the ball routinely to our new shortstop. Watch the video if you didn't see it live.
Let's talk attitude on the field of sports competition. Miller's was a little bit Ken Griffey Jr., and a little bit Billy Martin. Like what, y'say. Like this... Read More
The Tao of Jeet Kune (Dirt) Do(g)
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/13
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Also from his debut game, here's a grounder farrrr to his right. Miller succeeds on putting his personal stamp onto this play up the middle -- here's the video, dripping with personality.
On most plays up the middle, a shortstop leeaaaans over forward, perhaps leaving his feet to belly-flop the ball and be sure of getting it. Miller -- who slides headfirst when on the bases -- inverts the concept, does a gymnastics splits move, and kicks his feet out to "smother" a ball 10 miles away from him:
..............
In the second frame (you can just dial up the video if these images are... Read More
Harmon Killebrew, Jerry West, and Michael Jordan
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/13
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Brad Miller, side silhouette, looks more like the MLB logo than Harmon Killebrew does.
If you missed the debut game of Miller, the TV crew did a quick lay-over of Miller in the box and the MLB logo. This coaxed a chuckle even from Jay Buhner, who is not known for comparing rookies to MLB legends.
Miller has the bat loaded at just the right angle, has the perfect nose, has his cap set the right way, even has his thumb cocked just right ... I don't know why I remember the MLB logo as having that kind of a thumb on it; I guess it doesn't. (Aha! My memory was confusing Ken Griffey with the... Read More
An extra +0.5 or +1.0 WAR, from the SS legs, are OK with Dr D
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/13
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Dr. D has paid exactly zero attention to Spec's and Gordon's warnings that Brad Miller is fast, man, fast. First of all, if he's kinda fast, that means What to me? Baseball isn't about fast, any more than it's about tall.
;- )
Second of all, he ain't really that kinda player. Right?
Third of all ... in Miller's debut game, they showed a high-angle RF shot of Miller stealing second base. Dr. D's yap snapped shut so fast you could hear his teeth click.
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Just the Fa'ax, Ma'am
Villanueva threw a 1-0 slider to Dioner Navarro, and Endy Chavez leisurely took a strike.
Because Chavez was... Read More
Hurts So Good, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/13
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4 Comments
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I'll give you a belief of mine that I know to be suspect. There aren't many things like that we have, hopefully, where we maintain a conviction despite the sneaking suspicion that there is something fishy about what we believe...
I've always been annoyed by the feet-first slide, like I'm annoyed by the fact that Justin Smoak won't bunt to beat the shift. Well, not that annoyed; Smoak's refusal to bunt is an egregiously self-destructive decision, while feet-first sliding is at least debatable.
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Mr. ESPN
I'm 95% sure I remember this M's history right; 19 chances out of 20 I've got it the... Read More
The souurrrr science ... of M's prospecting
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/13
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Throw Over, Picked Off Flatfooted: Gordon, chomping on the stogie, gave us a memorable Bert Sugar minors report: "Ackley is takin' battin' practice during games. You gotta see dis. He goes t'ru da box like nobody ya ever seen."
Dustin Ackley his ownself then said exactly the same thing after his (return) oh-fer. "I feel night and day better!"
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Runner Evades First Four Throws: Gordon also warned us that Ackley's routes looked about like Rocky I, trying to catch the barnyard chicken with a Frankenstein stomp.
I figured maybe G was being a little bit cute, but then ... first game, first... Read More
Last day to #VoteChoi ... and he homers! ... a group shutout in Everett ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/30/13
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AAA -- Las Vegas 4, Tacoma 1 -- Box
It wasn't quite as bad for Erasmo Ramirez as it was for James Paxton (Talk40 #3) the night before, but Ramirez also gave up two home runs, just as Paxton did.
E-RAM managed to limit the damage otherwise, more or less, despite giving up 10 hits overall: 6.0 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
What's left of the offense didn't get much going, with Abraham Almonte (26intheMix) and Carlos Peguero (Watch List) both providing doubles, but those were the only extra-base hits.
AA -- Jackson 11, Birmingham 3 -- Box
The Generals offense, on the other hand, was on a... Read More
Empty feeling in Tacoma ... The Deej is being Zuninonian ... meet Ramire Cleto ... #VoteChoi ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/29/13
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Don't forget ... you can #VoteChoi through June 30 at mlb.com/futuresfinalists
MLB.com/futuresfinalists#sthash.KUb05d19.dpuf
MLB.com/futuresfinalists#sthash.KUb05d19.dpuf
MLB.com/futuresfinalists#sthash.KUb05d19.dpuf
AAA -- Las Vegas 9, Tacoma 0 -- Box
Poor Tacoma offense. It looks like a minor league team again. No Franklin, no Miller, no Zunino, no Ackley, not even a Montero, a Liddi or a Thames.
Well ... Abraham Almonte (26intheMix) is still there. He went 2-for-4 with a walk.
And at least they still have the "Next Five" starting rotation ... oops.
"Puzzling Pax" made a quick... Read More
Miller rides off into Safeco sunset ... Hultz is back ... The Tank gets rolling ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/28/13
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The distinction between covering "Mariners Prospects" and "the Mariners" continues to blur.
With the demise of Brendan Ryan in favor of Brad Miller (Talk40 #6), it's clear that, except for Felix and Iwakuma, and Rent-a-Player-Flavor-of-the-Month, the Pipeline is the Mariners.
For better or worse.
Well, we've got your daily dose of Pipeline rightcheer, as they say.
AAA -- Tacoma 2, Las Vegas 0 -- Box
Moving to the front of the Pipeline, now that Miller has passed through to the other side, is one Danny Hultzen (Talk40 #4). Is he healthy?
6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K
That look healthy... Read More
"Best pitching prospect in minor league baseball" sez Gordon
Posted by jemanji on 06/27/13
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Gordon cue'd up this Taijuan Walker sequence, jabbing with the "gets on em in a hurry" fastball call and hooking with the "15 feet over the batter's head" hook call. I'm piling on here, but that particular video is worth it.
It took us a while to triangulate Hisashi Iwakuma ... whodat, whodat ...?, um ... ::taps chin:: ... Hershiser? ... um ... GREG MADDUX! An 80% replica of the Mad Dog his ownself.
Took a while to triangulate Erasmo Ramirez, too ... still taking a while. Fister without the angles? ... ummm...
...........
On Taijuan Walker there can be no doubt. He's the phantom Doc... Read More
A better strategy: assisted disembowelment
Posted by jemanji on 06/27/13
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Dr. D and most of you were interested in discussing Taijuan, Franklin + ? for Justin Upton, but ... whoa. Guys are now banging their heads against the wall that they even considered such a disembowelment.
Lesson learned! Don't trade prospects for franchise players. The prospects could turn out to be good.
How do you every know for sure whether it will be Jesus Montero or Nick Franklin who steps forward? How do you know that Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley will flame out, and Kyle Seager will ascend on high as the 130 OPS+ pheonix of third base?
You never do. But Taijuan and Franklin... Read More
But wait! ... there's more!
Posted by Spectator on 06/27/13
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As promised when I did an update on the "Next Five" currently "harmonically converged" at Tacoma, here's an update on the "Next Next Five" who are starting to bubble up in the low minors.
Age
W
L
W-L%
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
WHIP
H/9
HR/9
BB/9
SO/9
SO/BB
Edwin Diaz
19
1
0
1.000
0.00
2
2
11.0
4
0
0
0
1
14
0.455
3.3
0.0
0.8
11.5
14.00
Luiz Gohara*
16
0
1
.000
7.94
2
2
5.2
11
6
5
0
2
7
2.294
17.5
0.0
3.2
11.1
3.50
Stephen Landazuri
21
4
2
.667
3.68
15
15
73.1
67
40
30
7
26
73
1.268
8.2
0.9
3.2
9.0
2.81
Tyler Pike*
19
4
3
.571
2.91
13
13
65.0
48
30
21
5
33
55
1.246
6.6
0.7
4.6
7.6
1.67... Read More
#VoteChoi ... Futures is now for Tai & Miller ... bring the Wood to the desert ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/27/13
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At least two Mariners prospects will be on the big stage (ESPN2, at least) on All-Star weekend, and a third is "in the running."
In other words: Taijuan Walker (Talk40 #2) and Brad Miller (Talk40 #6) have been picked to the U.S. team in the Futures Game on Saturday July 14. The game pits U.S. vs. International prospects.
No Mariners are on the initial International roster, but, for the first time there will be fan vote for the final spot on each team. And one of the five International nominees is our man Ji-Man Choi (Talk40 #19). Maybe a strong Korean vote will bring him across (Choi is... Read More
Gohara won't dominate every game he ever pitches ... [darn!] ... a Dutch master! ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/27/13
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AA -- Tennessee 6, Jackson 0 -- Box
Not much positive to report here, except for another sterling relief outing for Nick Hill (The [2nd] Best Story of the Year So Far). The former Army officer went 1.2 IP with no runs and three strikeouts.
On the year: 32.2 IP | 1.93 ERA | 0 HR | 1.19 WHIP | 6.6 H/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 7.7 K/9
Meanwhile, is MarinersProspectTalk icon Chris Taylor (Talk40 #28) getting exposed at AA? He's 5-for-32 in his first seven games. But he does have five walks. Mind you: we never said he was Brad Miller (Talk40 #6), only that he was not going to be helpless at the plate,... Read More
Savior, or trade gem?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/26/13
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As I said in the shouts, Dylan Bundy has now gone down with a blown UCL, and will need Tommy John surgery. That basically takes him out of the equation until 2015, and simultaneously makes Taijuan Walker the best pitching prospect in all of baseball.
But what should he be to us?
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First, let's talk about who is.
If you haven't seen him throw, well, here's a clip from his first AAA start.
Back yet? Stop drooling. That fastball just explodes out of his hand and he is scary with the occasional "effective wildness" of that pitch. It's hard for batters to see and... Read More
And then here comes the "Next Next Five"
Posted by Spectator on 06/26/13
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By unusual conincidence, the five top minor-league starting pitchers for the Mariners have now all converged on Tacoma, and, in fact, now constitute the Rainier rotation.
So let's recap these five, before we take a look at the "Next Next Five":
Age
W
L
W-L%
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
WHIP
H/9
HR/9
BB/9
SO/9
SO/BB
Danny Hultzen*
23
4
1
.800
2.60
5
5
27.2
20
10
8
1
6
33
0.940
6.5
0.3
2.0
10.7
5.50
Brandon Maurer
22
2
1
.667
3.33
5
5
24.1
21
10
9
2
11
28
1.315
7.8
0.7
4.1
10.4
2.55
James Paxton*
24
4
5
.444
4.75
15
15
72.0
82
47
38
5
32
76
1.583
10.2
0.6
4.0
9.5
2.38
Erasmo Ramirez
23
2
2... Read More
Taijuan! ... Ji-Man! ... Raysheron! ... huh? ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/26/13
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Later than usual, but still here.
AAA -- Tacoma 1, Fresno 0 -- Box
All eyes were on this game, which was the AAA debut of Taijuan Walker (Talk40 #2). Yeah, I think he did OK.
6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 K
As has been noted, events have conspired to put all of the "Next Five" at Tacoma now. Danny Hultzen (Talk40 #4) is next up.
It's also old news by now that Dustin Ackley was recalled to Seattle to replace Franklin Gutierrez, who returned to his most common locale -- the diabled list.
The offense didn't do much in the pitchers' duel, but Brad Miller (Talk40 #6) extended his hitting streak... Read More
Crackin' open a can of ... potential, I guess :- /
Posted by jemanji on 06/25/13
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Pretty much if you're a young Mariner, you looked good the last week or two. That's bubbly.
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JUSTIN SMOAK
Didn't hit during his week in Tacoma. But he's been back up to Safeco for 7 days and hit .273/.360/.545, which is unquestionably where he'll finish out his career statline.
You might recall that he has a new Super-Slo-Mo swing now, one that is more balanced and that takes a more level arc. We fail to regret to inform you: he is still using it. Who knows: perhaps it needs a while to take. Two differences between This Smoak and The Other Smoak:
He's running an outstanding 31% vs... Read More
Time to shed some ded ... wood, that is
Posted by jemanji on 06/25/13
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JOE SAUNDERS
In fairness, he'd thrown like 4 good games before getting destroyed by the Pirates on Tuesday.
In added fairness, his K/BB/HR is running at perfect RPM redline:
Season
K
BB
HR
2011 D'Backs
4.58
2.84
1.23
2013 Mariners
4.69
2.87
1.24
The 2011 Joe Saunders wouldn't have gone out and run a K/BB/HR as similar to 2011 as the 2013 Saunders has. I dunno what I'm sayin'... he was what they thought he was. He's the same; circumstances are not.
Okay. Saunders was brought in on a one-year deal. There were reasons for that. Those reasons are now well-and-truly extinct. Seriously. ... Read More
Wilson makes his debut ... Rainiers slug a bunch ... more Choi Joy ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/25/13
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Back in the saddle with, thankfully, a short slate of games.
AAA -- Tacoma 14, Fresno 4 -- Box
The Rainiers must have thought they were in Colorado Springs.
Carlos Peguero (Watch List) went 4-for-4 with two doubles. Alex Liddi (Talk40 #29) had a home run, a double and a walk. Brad Miller (Talk40 #6) had two more doubles.
On the mound it was Brandon Maurer (Talk40 #9), who continued the big strikeout totals that the "Next Five" have been ringing up this week: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 9 K.
That was Maurer's first start since being pulled last week due to "lower back tightness." Looks... Read More
Stock up on Bournses, or is the SB too rissssky?
Posted by jemanji on 06/25/13
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Rundown play: a convincing saber-throw to either side of a discussion, catching us in no man's land. SSI scrambles back and forth in the middle, trying to find safe harbor for the M's.
Blissed asked about the value of the stolen base in a lower-scoring environment.
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GROUNDER TO 3B, THROW HOME BEATS SMOAK BY 15 FEET: Bill James demonstrated, in the 1980's, that stolen bases mean very little. In all eras and all contexts, the SB "correlates" less with winning than any other major offensive category; you'll find more pennantwinners with high doubles than with high SB's.
In a famous... Read More
A day late and several dollars short
Posted by Spectator on 06/25/13
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Did you miss me? Yesterday was the first Game Action Recap we missed in ... I don't know ... over a year (at least on days when Real Games were played).
My midwestern burg was struck by a freak severe thunderstorm and left us without power and internet, and with some property damage. No one hurt. Got the power back about 3 a.m.
So I'll just do his "for the record" a day late.
AAA -- Tacoma 5, Fresno 4 -- Box
Erasmo Ramirez: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
Brad Miller (Talk40 #6) 11th overall HR
AA -- Jackson 9, Mobile 3 -- Box
Anthony Fernandez (Talk40 #23): 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2... Read More
Everything that Nick Franklin is, plus one thing ... greed
Posted by jemanji on 06/24/13
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HELP WANTED - APPLY WITHIN
Sunday, the Mariners took a series from the A's and headed into a day off. Wedge was in a great mood. He was bright with every answer until somebody asked about Franklin Gutierrez. Pause, pick your words carefully. "His legs tightened up on him - Again."
We grok here that Wedge has long since tired of dog-and-pony show. Managers, if you have just joined us, want players they can count on.
............
Michael Saunders can play defensive CF just fine ... his OPS+ for the season is down to 74, and he's now 26 years old and going backwards. It would be a nice... Read More
Leaks in the boat
Posted by jemanji on 06/24/13
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Bill James addresses a theme that we go to a lot here at SSI. The real problems in baseball that you can't capture with an algebraic formula ... well, not a formula that you can fit on one line, anyway.
........
Do you feel that versatility is or is not adequately captured by current statistical systems? Tony Phillips is the classic example, I think. He played 2B-LF-3B-SS-RF, usually splitting time in most seasons. He was an excellent fielding 2Bman but when he was traded to Detroit, they already had Lou Whitaker so Phillips went to LF, where he also played well, and had several strong... Read More
History's most improbable age-41 season?
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/13
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Change o' pace, tryin' ta keep you on your toes here. Grab a second cuppa.
Rundown play: the throw to one side of the runner, a throw back the other side, and then a quick scramble by Dr. D trying to find safety.
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PICKOFF THROW TO 1B: Rauuuuul is now #6 in the American League (!!) in home runs. That's with 220 trips to the plate compared to Longoria's and Cabrera's 330-350.
His SLG, .524, would be #7 in the American League if he qualified -- which he doesn't. He has the same RBI, 42, as does Jose Bautista.
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PANIC FLIP BACK TO THE SS: With a .280 OBP, there isn't really any .500... Read More
From one extreme to the other, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/13
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Another big win for Bonderman, er, for his team on Sunday. He locks down a team, Oakland, that has just whupped Hisashi Iwakuma twice in a row.
Also to Bonderman's credit: a 4-1 win over the Yankee$ and a 3-2 win* over the Angels, who detonated Felix Hernandez two days later. All this in Bonderman's first five starts back from dry dock.
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WHEEL AROUND, RH PICKOFF MOVE CATCHES ICHIRO FLATFOOTED: Bonderman had not pitched since 2010 ... who knew who he was? He returned in 2013, and in 5 starts since, has run a celery-crisp ERA of 3.30.
Even worse -- for Seattle's enemies, that is --... Read More
Better than the Sonics', that's for sure
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/13
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Photo credit: when Shaun T. meets neo-barbarism
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MONTERO STEALING, THEY NOTICE THE FACT, THROW to 2B, SO HE PULLS UP HALFWAY: the M's chances of making the playoffs are 1%.
I just made that up. And it is certainly very near the facts.
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SHORTSTOP, LAUGHING INTO HIS GLOVE, HAS THE THROW SAIL PAST HIM: The Mariners have won 8 and lost 5 against -- wait for it -- the Oakland A's. One eye swelled shut and their nose all over their face, they took on this AL West trip and ... won 7, losing 6. Yo Adrian -
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BALL APPROACHING CF, MONTERO WISELY RETREATS to 1B: Rauuul is probably the biggest... Read More
No longer a synchro fit for the Seattle landscape
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/13
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CLEANUP HITTER TAKES PARKER OFF LEFT-CENTER WALL, THROW BACK IN FORCES A RETREAT, RUNDOWN ENSUES: Morales with a walk-off three run shot to win Sunday's game. The Mariners give him six feet around home plate in every direction, he playfully tiptoes in (yes, really) like a Looney Tunes character, and Bill Krueger says that Kendrys Morales is the best ... um, or one of the best ... clutch hitters in baseball.
His OPS+ is over 120 and, visually, he's looked like a cleanup hitter. If you're the Mariners or Astros, of course.
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FOUR DEFENDERS STANDING IN LINE BEHIND EACH BAG AS THE PLAY GOES... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 06/23/13
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On the news front, Franklin Gutierrez finally got recalled to the majors. Since he was coming off the 60-day DL, he needed to be placed back on the 40-man roster. It was Eric Thames that moved to the top of the discard pile this time. Thames will probably get claimed and traded somewhere for "cash considerations" or the like. He's a valuable spare part, but it seemed that Eric Wedge never cared for him.
As for Guti, we think that "Franklin Gutierrez" and "Everyday Player" are Never. Ever. Ever. Getting Back Together. [Why, yes, I do have an 11-year-old daughter. Why do you ask?] But... Read More
Incorporating certain Game Action Recap for June 22
Posted by Spectator on 06/23/13
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We didn't invent the "Cerberus" thing, but it's become fairly commonplace, so I assume it's not copyrighted or anything. Folks can use my cheesy nicknames, too. [Doc's already using "Zuumball."]
Cerebus was the three-headed dog-monster of ancient myth.
[Interestingly, in the Beatles movie Yellow Submarine, the muti-headed dog has four heads:
So apparently they were anticipating the emergence of Brandon Maurer (Talk40 #9)? Is he the Ringo of this group?]
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You're already familiar with what Taijuan Walker (Talk40 #2) did on Thursday: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K.
Walker,... Read More
Go! Go! Gohara! ... Pow! Pow! Paolini! ... Tai and Hultz on the move at last ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/22/13
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Finally! Finally Luiz Gohara (Talk40 #21) on a competitive mound. Finally Taijuan Walker (Talk40 #2) to AAA. Finally Danny Hultzen (Talk40 #4) on the verge of returning. Finally Austin Wilson ("Megatron at the Bat") signs a contract.
Rookie -- Burlington 4, Pulaski 0 -- Box
For some small subset of fandom, the center of the baseball world was a small park in Burlington, NC, where the fascinating Gohara made his first official trip to the mound. Those of us within the subset have been buzzing for some time about the 16-year-old Brazilian's massive size and easy velocity, plus his... Read More
Mobile innundated by Tai-wonderfulness ... welcome to the party, Edwin Diaz! ... good news for Kivle-fans ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/21/13
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AA -- Jackson 5, Mobile 2 -- Box
This game didn't need a play-by-play crew, it needed some of those Weather Channel people who stand out in the 90-mph winds and say "please everyone evacuate and find safe shelter ... except me, of course ... 'cause this will sure look cool on TV ... "
Hurricane Taijuan made landfall: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K.
Think maybe he's seen enough of AA? 2.46 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | 3.2 BB/9 | 10.3 K/9
Our MarinersProspectTalk icon Chris Taylor (Talk40 #28) got his initial AA extra-base hit (a double), while longstanding favorite Julio Morban (Talk40 #15) (we... Read More
One extra buttermilk biscuit, Mikey
Posted by jemanji on 06/20/13
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Several amigos asked for the POTD on the slump, which has been brutal ... Saunders the last 30 days has slugged .210, and any resemblance to baseball living or dead has been purely coincidental.
It's a funny thing, because Saunders' swing doesn't look off kilter or anything like that. He's keeping his "ki" up the middle, is staying compact on followthru, yada yada. Also, his component stats don't show anything much out of alignment -- his line drive rate is good, his EYE is 0.45 the last month ... what, we've just got six weeks of catastrophic bad luck? NNNAAaaaahhhhh...
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Q. How is he... Read More
What a 16-year-old from Brazil does in a small city in southwestern Virginia will be a big story
Posted by Spectator on 06/20/13
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It's a big week for debuts. D.J. Peterson just made his pro debut, and now, on Friday, get ready for the long-awaited appearance of the International Man(-Child) of Mystery Luiz Gohara (Talk40 #21).
Gohara is just 16 (won't turn 17 until July 31), but he's huge, left-handed, throws hard, and, most interestingly, comes from the unique Japanese-Brazilian baseball culture.
So it's sort of like a teenage C.C. Sabathia tutored by Japanese coaches in Latin America. And, reportedly, scouts have been "blown away" every time they've had a chance to see him.
There's more at the "Talk40 #21" link,... Read More
Pretenders vs Contenders, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 06/20/13
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37 Comments
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Geoff Baker pointed out that over the Mariners' last twelve games, their starters have rocked an ERA of -- wait for it -- 1.77. The M's record in those games: 6 wins, 6 losses.
If my quickie finger-counting at b-ref.com is right for a change, the M's have scored 29 runs and allowed 40 over those twelve games, so they're lucky to even have held their ground at 32-41. Wednesday night's 1-0 loss was the cherry on top, but there's been plenty of wasabi ice cream below the cherry. It's now two weeks and counting since the Mariners scored the AL average (about 4.6 runs) in any game. Thirteen... Read More
D.J. arrives as DH ... Taylor & Morla hit AA ... Maurer exits early ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/20/13
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New faces in new places today, but also "lower back tightness."
AAA -- Tacoma 16, Colorado Springs 4 -- Box
You may recall the Rainiers already beat the Sky Sox once by 25-6 earlier in the year. Now they're back and at it again (except that a bunch of those Rainiers are now Mariners and vice versa).
The big news item, though: Brandon Maurer (Talk40 #9) left after just 1.0 IP with the aforementioned "lower back tightness." That's all I got for now, but we'll keep you posted.
The way the offense was going, it didn't much matter who followed Maurer, but Bobby LaFromboise (Talk40 #34) put... Read More
All-Stars don't star all that much ... Erasmo is OK in the Rockies ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/18/13
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EDIT: Should have noted (although it's not a huge surprise) that Justin Smoak was recalled to the Big Club from his rehab assignment, and Alex Liddi (Talk40 #29) returned to Tacoma as a result. Smoak went right into the lineup and delivered a key homer in addition to much-needed roster flexibility for Mike Morse and Kendrys Morales.
Low-A -- Midwest League All-Star Game: East 6, West 5 -- Box
As we noted yesterday, the most glamorous names were on the West team with the Mariners guys, but that wasn't enough for the win.
Jabari Henry (26intheMix) substituted for emerging "Next Big... Read More
The spreadsheet
Posted by Spectator on 06/18/13
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A while back, when I did the hitters (there wasn't supposed to be this much gap, what "it is what it is" as they say), I did a "Spectometer" refresher course, so you may use that as a reference point if you wish.
The pitching numbers are through 6/14/13.
PP = "Production Percentage" allowed = (XBH + BB) / PA
PI = "Plausibility Index" = Necessary Convesion Rate of "random-y" balls in play to "random-y" singles to attain OPS of .700 (the higher the better for pitchers)
+ / - = Measure of extent to which hitter is "winning plate appearances" (negative better for pitchers)
C/C = "Command/... Read More
This week at BJOL
Posted by jemanji on 06/18/13
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For Your 10c a Day, dept.
From the "Hey, Bill" answer bag:
.........
You are right about the term Triple crown. In a recent Sunday night game, Orel Hershiser and John Kruk were talking about how seldom Joey Votto pops up. Twice only this season. Edwin Encarnacion pops up once a game. Is there a skill involved, or is it something else?
Asked by: DavidTodd
Answered: 6/18/2013
It's a manifestation of a very central skill. Batters have to make decisions at an extraordinarily high rate of speed. There are three or four common mistakes they make--because they are making decisions at a... Read More
Sharkie has everyone on alert ... Kolscheen and Hill crash the party ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/18/13
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The numbers are here.
Something's Up with ISO-Against?
I went back and looked at 2012, because I thought maybe something was wrong with the numbers. But it's true. At the end of last year, there were seven starters who kept hitters under a .100 ISO.
Danny Hultzen (Talk40 #4) .072
Tyler Pike (Talk40 #14) .074
James Paxton (Talk40 #3) .079
Steven Ewing .082
Stephen Landazuri (Talk40 #24) .083
Brandon Maurer (Talk40 #9) .086
Jordan Pries (26intheMix) .093
[Is there a connection between that and the rankings? Yes, for sure. Ewing walked 5.0 BB/9.]
Anyway, so far in 2013, there is exactly... Read More
Pax, Fernandez on track ... five LumberKings join Buxton, Correa in All-Star tilt ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/18/13
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AAA -- Tacoma 7, Sacramento 5 -- Box
Jack Zduriencik was reportedly in town to see the Rainiers, but he may have just been disoriented, what with Mike Zunino (Talk40 #1), Nick Franklin (Talk40 #7) and Carlos Triunfel (26intheMix) in the Seattle lineup, and Dustin Ackley, Franklin Gutierrez, Justin Smoak and Robert Andino in the Tacoma lineup.
Of course, he was there because more those kind of changes are still to come.
On the field, he got to see one of the best James Paxton (Talk40 #3) outings in a while.
He went 6.0 IP! In under 100 pitches! His line: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K... Read More
Miller streak continues ... Ackley's ends (except his CF streak) ... draftees start to play ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/16/13
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AAA -- Sacramento 6, Tacoma 3 -- Box
Ultimate journeyman Brian Sweeney got another start, and only gave up one earned run, but it was not a pretty line otherwise: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 6 BB, 3 K.
Brad Miller (Talk40 #6) extended his hitting streak to 16 games, and is now hitting .311/.395/.494 overall.
Dustin Ackley was in center field -- again -- but his 16-game hitting streak ended. Nevertheless, he's hit in 16 of his 18 AAA games, and is hitting .390/.495/.532. Is he fixed? Will they plop him down in center field in the majors? Maybe on both counts, but I wouldn't expect to see... Read More
Ackley establishing self in center ... Landazuri keeps impressing ... Jackson gets gang shutout ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/16/13
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AAA -- Sacramento 6, Tacoma 1 -- Box
Most noteworthy: Dustin Ackley in center field for the third straight game. Paying attention, Michael Saunders?
Ackley had two hits, but the Rainiers didn't get much going. Their only extra-base knock of the night was a home run from ... yes ... Robert Andino.
Hector Noesi had a bumpy outing, but racked up some strikeouts: 4.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K.
AA -- Jackson 3, Birmingham 0 -- Box
The Generals got a shutout spread among four pitchers, with James Gilheeney starting it out and Carson Smith (Talk40 #13) bringing it home:
Gilheeney: 5.0 IP, 2 H... Read More
M's 4, A's 0
Posted by jemanji on 06/15/13
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Felix Is Ours and You Can't Have Him
Oakland, having gone 102-60 over the last calendar year (!!) threw out a rawhide-tough lefty lineup. Their 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, and 9 batters hit southpaw against the King, and the strategy was perfectly obvious. Force the M's ace out of the game after 6 innings, behind no more than 1-0 or 2-1. Get to the M's ragtag pen.
After two-plus innings, the A's scripted win looked like a foregone conclusion. Felix lacked his usual command, and had tossed 53 pitches with only 2.1 innings gone. Uh-oh...
Realizing that the A's were passive, Felix took a page out of... Read More
D.J. and the redemption crew
Posted by Spectator on 06/15/13
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As with last year's top pick, Mike Zunino (Talk40 #1), D.J. Peterson will start his pro career with Everett.
Peterson claims to have worked hard to be able to stick at third base, and I don't doubt the organization will give him a chance there. It'll be easy enough to move him across the diamond later. He'll be on collision course with our man Ji-Man Choi (Talk40 #19) at first, but he's got pretty clear sailing at third until Kyle Seager.
So we'll see, but the scouting consensus was pretty strong ... no third for the Deej.
If he crushes the Northwest League in Zuninonian fashion (and even... Read More
Morales key to Aqua opener ... Blash Splash 14! ... Miller Time too! ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/15/13
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Paint it aqua! The season debut of the Everett AquaSox came in Spokane Friday with an opening victory. I'll have a season preview up shortly.
AAA -- Tacoma 6, Sacramento 4 -- Box
Brandon Maurer (Talk40 #9) was in a little bit of "puzzling Pax" mode -- using 104 pitches to get through 5.0 IP -- but it worked out all right in the scorebook: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K.
And Justin Smoak reappeared (1-for-3, double), giving Tacoma three former Mariners regulars in the lineup. Dustin Ackley was in center field for the second time, and had a double, a single and a walk. And Franklin... Read More
See ya, wouldn' wanna be ya
Posted by jemanji on 06/14/13
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57 Comments
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We cue'd up the DVR to the game and ... Kelly Shoppach DFA? Whaaaa? Let's see, what's next, Brendan Ryan traded for a grade B prospect and Brad Miller starting?
Kelly Shoppach is a quality defensive catcher. His career OPS+ is 96, sky-high for a role catcher. He knows the American League inside out. He knows the Mariner pitchers, has 90 days -- an eternity -- under his belt learning all 12 skillsets and tendencies. He's just gone? For a National League catcher whose career OPS+ is 68? And who, starting tomorrow, has to begin learning how to keep Charlie Furbush and Carter Capps... Read More
M's 3, A's 2! yeahhh baby!
Posted by jemanji on 06/14/13
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1. It doesn't matter! whether you, as a fan, quit on the season, or whether you do not. Your emotions mean nothing to anybody other than to one person.
In July, the M's will go on a 20-for-26 streak or they won't. If you quit, they could still go on a tear. Teams do. If you quit and the M's surge -- as young, talented teams can -- you can hop back on at any time.
It is unlikely, but not farfetched, that the M's could have a big second half. Right now they're not looking like it. In the immortal words of Brian Bosworth, their offense blows chunks. Like, it totally sicks you out,... Read More
e-RAM leads pitching parade ... and Elias ... and T. Miller ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/14/13
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AAA -- Tacoma 11, Las Vegas 0 -- Box
Last year, when we were poking around to see if anyone had been referring to Erasmo Ramirez as "E-Ram," we stumbled upon the "e-RAM Electric Supercharger." For whatever reason, there was just something irresistible about it: an electric supercharger! an electric supercharger! More Air! More Fuel! More Power! It doesn't matter what a "supercharger" does, because who wouldn't want whatever they do to be "supercharged"?
Well, of course, we'd thought we'd retired the ol' supercharger, since e-RAM himself was "retired" from the minor leagues. But... Read More
Bad decisions, lame communicators or tough crowd? or all three? Part I
Posted by Spectator on 06/14/13
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I am super-appeciative of GLS and Thirteen (Logan) taking the time to "interact with our community" (I said it would be about cliches), and build bridges that ought to be built. So, this three-part (yowch!) essay is not "aimed" at the folks that GLS mentions in his comment "Analytical vs. Un-Analytical," but is merely "riffing" off the ideas he touches on.
He discusses commonly-expressed frustration, which I completely understand, with decisions based on "veteran grit," "leadership," "playing the game the right way," and the ever-popular "knowing how to win."
My only caution, and what... Read More
Bad decisions, lame communicators or tough crowd? or all three? Part II
Posted by Spectator on 06/14/13
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Photo is what you get if you search for "Big Data." So there.
In Part I, I went over how "old-school" media dyanmics lead invariably to cliches, buzzwords and double-speak in place of actual information, because (for the most part), frankly, my dear, very few people give a goshdarn, and, even when they do, the lethal combination of savvy, deviousness and laziness (or various combinations) usually result in something other than "the real story" coming out from behind the curtain anyway.
But now ... this is the dawning of the Age of Big Data.
***
How information gets from "inside" to "... Read More
Bad decisions, lame communicators or tough crowd? or all three? Part III
Posted by Spectator on 06/13/13
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In Part I and Part II, we identified "old-school" and "new-school" ways of getting information about decision-making out from behind the "insider" curtain and conveyed to the general public.
So we have three variables that might be at play here:
(1) The actual Mariner decision-making process
(2) The manner in which Mariner decisions are explained/justified
(3) The audience receiving the explanations/justifications
Let's explore some possibilities:
The Mariners are uniquely bad at making baseball decisions
The Mariners are not uniquely bad at making baseball decisions, but are... Read More
Get ready for some busted lights
Posted by jemanji on 06/13/13
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This is a 3-part series ... the click-through links are bottom right.
........
Settled in at 7 pm sharp with a five-pound bag of cotton candy and a diet creme soda. That, or something dissimilar. Zuumball is in the present tense, babe. Mo' Dawg, Lonnie and I still remember Junior's first AB off Dave Stewart in 1989.
As we all know, Zunino was on pace for 200 whiffs in the PCL, which projects to 512 in the American League. We flipped the switch on the jumbo electron arms in the lab, they hummed up to a nice crackle, and were all set to Detect-O-Nate the cause of the 512 strikeouts.... Read More
A good swing: Necessary but not Sufficient
Posted by jemanji on 06/13/13
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Compactness
We sez, Zunino's swing is comparable to David Wright's ... with the key difference being the length. Here is the launch point of Wright's swing -- check the angle of the bat:
But this rat-cheer is about as far as Zunino goes, in terms of load, that is:
Take a look at the video again and you'll see that Zunino is about as short to the ball as it's reasonable to get. I mean, sit for a second. Time out. Now try to imagine an alternative swing, one with less load than that? Um, no.
It's pretty well dialed down to 1 or 2 on the load meter. The PWR is coming from a natural... Read More
Snatch the pebble from my hand, grasshopper, er, Teddy
Posted by jemanji on 06/13/13
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"Aiki" in Japanese comes from two words, "ki" meaning soul, intentionality, the circulating life energy and breath of your being. "Ai" means harmony. "Aiki" in budo refers to harmonizing yourself, on a subconscious level, with incoming energy that may be hostile.
It emphasizes your center of gravity, since that is the source of your physical intentionality, and is also the paradigm that leads to well-organized movement of head, arms, and legs.
It sounds like mumbo-jumbo to Americans, but is second nature in the Eastern Hemisphere, and you'll hear Americans referring to the ideas with... Read More
Spitting image of ...
Posted by jemanji on 06/13/13
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MLE's
For your convenience, here are Zunino's major league equivalencies. Remember, the idea here is that an MLE is prone to predict future MLB performance about as well as MLB performance does. It's true that 25 homers MLE (which is like 52 in AA ball?) might not result in 25 homers, big league. But then, does every major leaguer who hits 25 homers, return to that level? Not even close.
Bill James gives 90 games as the typical "adjustment period" during which a player learns the pitchers in a new league. That is aside from developmental curves; it might take 90 games before a player'... Read More
7 out of 10 draft picks surveyed recommend signing early ... Romero busts out ... Ackley out in left field ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/12/13
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Thirteen draftees signed on the bottom line, including No. 1 pick D.J. Peterson. Others: The Tank (OF Tyler O'Neill, 3rd); SS Jack Reinheimer, 5th; OF Corey Simpson, 6th; LHP Tyler Olson, 7th; LHP Jake Zokan, 9th (Fear the Zokan!); RHP Emilio Pagan, 10th; 1b (bigger little bro') Justin Seager, 12th; IF Jeff Zimmerman, 19th; RHP Kevin McCoy, 24th; RHP Ricky Claudio, 27th; OF Chantz Mack, 29th; RHP Rafael Pineda, 30th.
By process of elimination: OF Austin Wilson, 2nd; LHP Ryan Horstman, 4th; and SS Tyler Smith, 8th remain unsigned from the top 12 (given we have unofficial word on RHP Zack... Read More
A contentious post to go with a sour 9th inning
Posted by jemanji on 06/12/13
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29 Comments
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Debate ongoing as to whether Jack Zduriencik is mis-managing the M's roster.
.............
GLS says,
I thought [the blogs' take on Zdurienck] was pretty good. He always makes good points and his arguments are based on facts, so I always take him seriously. He's said before that the Mariners have become the least analytical organization in baseball when it comes to roster construction and I think the tone you hear is his immense frustration.
The 40-man is an issue. I expect a trade soon to clear out some spots. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if they just release Gutierrez when he completes... Read More
Just the numbers
Posted by Spectator on 06/12/13
Posted to blog
As mentioned in the prior post, "Spectometer" is our cheesy name for our stats analysis. We didn't get this posted right away, so the numbers are through 6/4/13.
PP = "Production Percentage" = (XBH + BB) / PA
PI = "Plausibility Index" = Necessary Convesion Rate of "random-y" balls in play to "random-y" singles to attain OPS of .890 (the lower the better for hitters)
+ / - = Measure of extent to which hitter is "winning plate appearances" (positive better for hitters)
V = "Vladitude" = ISO - K% = extent to which hitting ball with authority (not just making contact) exceeds strikeout rate (... Read More
and the fans go wild :: aaahhhhhhhhh ::
Posted by jemanji on 06/12/13
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3 Comments
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Worst-Case Scenario
Would be for Zunino to strike out 17 times in a row, get sent back to AAA, and benefit from getting a look at what he'll be facing.
Yes, Egbert, logically speaking, there are worse things. He could:
Snap at an Eric Wedge comment, head-butt the manager, and be traded the next day
Get caught betting against Joe Saunders
Get hit in the throat by a flying shard of his own corked bat
But you don't live your life based on precautions taken against mountain lions that drop down from the porch roof onto you as you step out of your front door.
The actual DWN scenario is for... Read More
Hit well in his last 10 days in the PCL
Posted by jemanji on 06/12/13
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25 Comments
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These days, I try to limit my baseball reading. As far as sites that offer opinion, in any significant amount, it's pretty much down to five:
Bill James' site
Geoff Baker's site
Spec's blog (found at seattlesportsinsider.com)
Gordon's blog (see above)
Guest Post blog (see above)
You don't want your blog to turn sour. Coughlin's Fourth Law: bury the dead. They stink up the joint.
;- )
But we gather from Geoffy's site that the peanut gallery has been tearing Zduriencik a new earhole for calling up Mike Zunino -- as, of course, they'd been baring their fangs about any "premature" callup... Read More
Like most stuff here, serious analysis wrapped in random, cheesy stuff
Posted by Spectator on 06/12/13
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I'll be rolling out my "Spectometer" STAT-Scan for the "end of May (-ish)" (ha!), and it will be the first time I've done so on the "Big Blog."
So I thought I'd do a little explanatory post.
As with Jeff (Doc/jemanji), who graciously let me start noodling in his space, I tend to envelop my stuff in our own version of info-tainment (cheesy nicknames and the like), because, hey, it's the Internet, not a peer-reviewed journal.
But ...
The stuff is not just plucked out of the sky. There is actually a multi-year effort involved here, and the fundamental question throughout is:
What can we... Read More
What the colored boxes are saying
Posted by Spectator on 06/12/13
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Tale of Two Jabaris:
If not for the name, we wouldn't really pair up Jabari Henry (26intheMix) and Jabari Blash (Watch List), other than they're both off to good years.
But Blash is the classic case of a guy "outslugging" his high K% with a blizzard of homers. Don't forget, though, crushing the "hitter's pitch" is a Plate Skill and counts toward the Plate Skills Index. But can he keep it up? Well, in the week since we ran the stats (and since I didn't get this package ready before the draft, I decided to wait until after, so now the stats are bit old), he hasn't kept it up. He's gone... Read More
MLE .369/.458/.506
Posted by jemanji on 06/11/13
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17 Comments
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Q. Dustin Ackley has been up to the plate 69 times in AAA, and has reached base 37 times. That's an OBP of .537. What do you make of that?
A. Classic post-hype syndrome. Ron Shandler gives the classic sequence, the one that has occurred many 100's of times, as "the ARod 10-Step Path to Stardom":
Prospect puts up awesome minors stats.
Media gets riled up.
Prospect gets called up! ... struggles, year 1.
Prospect gets demoted back to AAA.
Prospects tears minors up, year 2.
Prospect gets called up! ... struggles, year 2.
Prospect gets demoted back to AAA.
Media turns their backs on... Read More
Most-comparable Zen masters
Posted by jemanji on 06/11/13
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Rauuullllll
The pitch he hit out Tuesday: 94 MPH, to left-center field. (Is even Kyle Seager capable of that?) He visibly swung in two stages. He widened his eyes and deciphered the pitch. Then, after he understood the pitch, he SNNAPPPPED the bat, real sudden, and hit the ball out -- the other way, to the deep left-center power alley. It was 416 feet, almost precisely to 105 degrees, the ray that bisects LF and CF.
"You gotta see it first," Jay Buhner tells the M's young hitters. They're up there just guessing. Not Raul.
If you listed the 20 best ML players who ever lived, the... Read More
Seager population doubles ... Rainiers can't close in Vegas ... Morban shines in poor Jackson showing ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/11/13
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As our alert and helpful readers have been pointing out in the comments, the draft signings are coming in fast and furious. Top pick D.J. Peterson appears set to sign today (Wednesday), and (bigger) little bro' Justin Seager was among the Tuesday signings.
As it stands, it looks like everyone that they had a strong interest in is likely to sign. Second-round pick Austin Wilson is reportedly in the midst of finishing school, but appears likely to sign after that.
A couple of the high schoolers whom we weren't sure about -- most prominently "The Tank" Tyler O'Neill, "the not-at-1b" slugger... Read More
8.6 K, 1.5 BB on the year
Posted by jemanji on 06/11/13
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10 Comments
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Does a 54-year-old pitching coach throw batting practice with any less gusto than this dude?!
Or on this capture. Dig the angle of the upper thigh at release:
or a coupla cheapie old-style 4, 5 WAR seasons in the 5 slot.
We know, we know. But the dude is chuckin'.
BABVA,
Dr D
Harang changin' the eye level
Posted by jemanji on 06/11/13
Posted to blog
9 Comments
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Yet another bright, basic lightbulb burnin' at BJOL for your 10c a day:
..............
I don't understand why coaches tell pitchers to "keep the ball down". When I watch baseball, it seems like the good hitters crush low pitches in the strike zone, and it seems like many good pitchers succeed by blowing away hitters with high fastballs. So what is the deal with this "keeping the ball down"? Does it mean something else that is not obvious?
Asked by: Don M
Answered: 6/12/2013
I don't know, but I see it the same way you do. Low pitches get crushed--plus, if you pitch low, low, low, it... Read More
Vazquez conquers tumor, returns to mound ... more Choi Joy! ... is Ruffin ready? ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/10/13
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3 Comments
Low-A -- Wisconsin 8, Clinton 2 -- Box
It's true that I've already designated Nick Hill as "The Best Story of the Year So Far," but I did use the "so far" modifier. So now we have the "Even Better Story of the Year So Far."
The pitching line was not important, just the fact that there was a pitching line:
Anthony Vasquez: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
If you don't know the story, Vazquez had brain surgery last fall to remove a tumor and address other life-threatening problems. If it had not been caught when it was, there was a good chance he would not have made it. Shannon Drayer... Read More
Alas poor Vinnie; we knew him ... Maurer is strong again ... Littlewood has some lumber ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/09/13
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18 Comments
As you may have seen in the Shout Box, the original MarinersTalk.com Hero, Vinnie Catricala (Talk40 #10), is gone ... to the Oakland A's of all places.
Vinnie put up three consecutive years of excellent stats, then "lost it." I kept believing, just as I had with Michael Saunders, but, by the time he started showing signs of "finding it," he had been passed by so many guys that he couldn't hold his spot on the 40-man roster.
I understand that's how things work, and I don't disagree that he'd become the lowest guy on the pecking order, but I think that losing both Catricala and Carp for not... Read More
Aren't we on verse ten of this song by now?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/09/13
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15 Comments
In the shouts, blissedj had this comment:
Team OPS 97 or not we still need more bats. We need more than Seager, Ibanez and Morales to produce when the game is on the line.
Can't argue with that. And if this year is starting to feel like previous ones over the last decade, you're not mistaken.
In 2012 at game 64 our record was 27-37. In 2013? 27-37. That's not progress in the standings, for sure. We've scored 229 runs and allowed 276. The BOR is KILLING us, but we're still only on pace to give up 700 runs (720 is AL-average the last 3 years). OTOH, we're pro-rating out to just 580... Read More
e-RAM supercharges Tacoma (and Zunino hits there!) ... let's get Tai out of Tennessee ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/09/13
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1 Comments
For Gordon's abbreviated Day Three draft commentary, check out his comment here.
Meanwhile, games were going on ...
AAA -- Tacoma 11, Las Vegas 0 -- Box
E-RAM The Electric Supercharger! He's back; he's electric; he's supercharged!
More Air! More Fuel! More Power! More Erasmo Ramirez: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K!
Well, that's good to see. Let's get the MLB rotation supercharged pretty soon. Saunders/Harang/Bonderman/Cast of Thousands ... bah, humbug.
Offense:
Brad Miller (Talk40 #6): three-run homer (his ninth overall), single ... SLG .505
Mike Zunino (Talk40 #1): finally getting... Read More
Every dog has its day, sez Sparky
Posted by jemanji on 06/08/13
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3 Comments
At Bill James Online:
..........
Teheran had a game score of 89 at age 22. How commom/rare is that for a mediocre pitcher? He was a highly touted prospect who has underpeformed his expectations (though he has pitched much better after a rocky start). As a Braves fan, I am encouraged, but could it be a fluke? As an optomist I will ignore the injury factor.
Asked by: markj111
Answered: 6/9/2013
I generated a list of the ten worst starting pitchers I could find who made 50 or more starts. 7 of the 10 had Game Scores of 85 or better. Ruben Quevedo had two outstanding games in three... Read More
couple of prospects, several money-savers
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/08/13
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10 Comments
Day two of the Mariners draft was partly confounding, with some interesting stops along the way and a plan that will either irk me or make me happy.
Let's start with the picks:
3rd - Tyler O'Neill, RH prep C/RF. Tyler's a Canuck, and they're always hard to judge. There's a lack of local competition so most of them rely on traveling squads to get out and about, and playing for the Canadian junior national team helps too. Tyler's done both, and already acquitted himself well against the Texas instructional leaguers. In fact, he's gotten comparisons to Brett Lawrie, who was drafted by... Read More
D.J., Wilson and the Tank ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/08/13
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Here's the mlb.com link to all Mariners draftees with mini-scouting reports where available.
***
Here's a feature spot on the Deej:
Opens with the baby-faced trying-to-look-fierce Nick Franklin look, then, at the one-minute mark ... he's kinda nerdy!
We mean that in a good way. A really, really good way.
***
Wilson with wood bat hitting a stand-up triple.
Does he look and run like an NFL stud wideout? Yes he does. Megatron at the bat. Love that acceleration after he rounds first.
But the swing doesn't look amateur-ish or non-baseball-y to me. Guess we'll... Read More
Pitching showdown fizzles ... [All-Star] Choi Joy! ... a bit of Ardball, finally ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/08/13
Posted to blog
Three words about the draft: You Never Know.
OK, a few more. Lots of experts thought Nick Franklin was a light-hitting infielder with Willie Bloomquist upside. Kyle Seager was just Dustin Ackley's second banana. Adam Jones was authoritatively declared a bust more than once.
That's why we don't Potificate from On High at this-here blog. At least not so much.
And, from someone writing info-taining blurbs about minor leaguers, how can I not love "The Tank"! Best thing since "Blash Splash" ...
So it's "D.J., Wilson and The Tank" ... right there with "Willie, Mickey and The Duke"?
AAA... Read More
... as is Evan Longoria (ahem)
Posted by jemanji on 06/07/13
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2 Comments
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Earlier this year, we'd noted that Kyle Seager had become a pitch stalker:
Season
Swing %
Outside-Zone Swing %
2011 (200 PA)
48
30
2012
47
28
MLB AVERAGE
46
29
2013
40
23
In his first 1.3 seasons, Kyle Seager's zone management had been solidly ML average. Now then, in 2013, he's become next-to-impossible to catch fishing.
Pablo Sandoval swings at 48% of balls, not 23%. Adam Jones and Howie Kendrick swing at more than 40% of pitches that miss. Albert Pujols and Ichiro swing at 36%! And here Seager is, down to 23%. The majority of players who can match him are little tiny leadoff hitters... Read More
Subliminal advertising, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 06/07/13
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9 Comments
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Watch Nick Franklin between pitches. You'll see him look at the barrel of his bat, look over at the catcher and maybe say something, look over at the camera well, look out at the pitcher for a second, glance down at his spikes as he lightly, one-handedly taps his bat against them...
He points his head at the pitcher as the pitcher takes the sign. But! He doesn't really begin focusing until AFTER the pitcher is well into his windup. You can see the legs sink, the shoulder coil, the hands chamber --- > only JUST before the pitcher releases the ball.
It took Dr. D a long time to realize... Read More
6 ip 3h 1r 1er 1bb 2k
Posted by jemanji on 06/07/13
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1 Comments
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Our Backstory
Jeremy Bonderman quit baseball in 2011. As Joe Pawlikowski put it, it's not often that a pitcher with a career xFIP of 4.11 is required to go to camp and fight for a job. Bonderman declined to do so. You and I might find that understandable, but baseball sure as shootin' wasn't going to.
MLB(TM) baseball is a privilege, one you play respectfully, after putting your pants on one leg at a time. If you trivialize what we do out here, call into question the immense value of the profession, you're going to do some penance before (if) you're ever allowed back in.
I've always... Read More
inanimate soccer ball or best friend?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/07/13
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A few years ago, Wilson was a raw 18 year old who had every athletic gift there is. He turned down millions to go to college, but where has that gotten him?
Three years older and in the same place.
He has a cannon for an arm, can play some spot CF, swipe 15+ bags, has good batspeed and tremendous power in the cage. He’ll even take some walks, and a few pitches to the ribs if that’s what’ll get him on base.
Austin Wilson is also a genius. Stanford doesn’t take academic inepts, and as the son of geniuses (the MIT and Harvard kind) he’s got a massive brain to go with that huge body and... Read More
Plus bonus Austin Wilson video! ... Ack attack continues! ... Tacoma showdown Friday night ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/07/13
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We'll get another draft thread going (Gordon will no doubt have plenty of good thoughts as things roll out), but, for now, here's video of 2nd-round pick Austin Wilson:
I guess I'm upbeat for a pick at No. 49. He was not a huge strikeout guy his sophomore and junior years -- college stats here -- and it's easy to see why scouts like him. If he was a sure thing he wouldn't have still been there at that point, of course. He seems to have a big boost to his OBP via HBP (15 as a soph) ... advantage of being huge, I guess?
Then again, I see the irony in having a big, toolsy guy... Read More
Welcome to the Ms
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/06/13
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So Lonnie and I have been talking his potential to the Ms since about February. We'd drafted him before, we liked him, and today we drafted him again in the first. DJ Peterson, welcome to the Mariners.
What I said about him a few weeks ago:
DJ Peterson, RH college 1B – everyone hates his D at 3rd, but has echoes of Gar at the plate so the bat is his major league tool. Why you should care: because he looks like freaking GAR at the plate. Didn’t you hear me? He has the same batting stance, the same elbow placement, the same kind of swing, the same all-field ability… he lunges at too many... Read More
Process of Elimination Theatre!
Posted by Spectator on 06/06/13
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17 Comments
Gordon says that Jonathan Mayo's mock draft at mlb.com tracks pretty closely with his thinking, and I agree.
I mean, not that it tracks with Gordon's thinking (which I can't verify), but that it tracks with what most of the "experts" seem to be concluding around this funny little World Wide Web of ours.
Meaning: Mayo's top 10 are pretty much the 10 that are the "consensus" at the top.
College arms: Jonahtan Gray (Oklahoma), Mark Appel (Stanford), Braden Shipley (Nevada)
College bats: Kris Bryant (San Diego), Colin Moran (North Carolina)
Prep arms: Kohl Stewart (Texas), Trey Ball (Indiana... Read More
Taylor and Austin rack up hits in the desert ... Sharkie still virtually walk-free ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/06/13
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As you no doubt saw, with the injury to Jesus Sucre (Watch List) not super-serious, the team chose to give a cuppa coffee to Brandon Bantz. The 40-man roster move making that possible was to transfer Franklin Gutierrez, who was not deemed healthy enough to go back on the MLB roster, to the 60-day DL.
Of course, as it happened, the Bantz "insurance policy" kicked in on the day of a 16-inning game, leaving Alex Liddi (Talk40 #29) as the only available bench player (other than Bantz, who would only play if there was a disaster). So no position-player moves were made for the entire contest.... Read More
Musings for the first day
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/05/13
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19 Comments
Since I’m about out of time to talk about this draft (and didn’t want to spend a million words on players most likely being drafted ahead of us) here’s the basics:
Top 5 picks: College pitchers Gray and Appel (unless signability happens AGAIN), college 3B/1B Kris Bryant, and prep pitcher Kohl Stewart. They won’t get to us, so I’m not talking about them. Yes, that’s only 4 players.
Everything else is a crapshoot. I think college 3B/1B Colin Moran is the other top 5 guy, but we’ll see. If Moran somehow fell to us, party like it’s 1999. Drafts get weird even up until draft night (see:... Read More
Carraway & Ruffin don't make their case ... Pries loses pitchers' duel ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/05/13
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1 Comments
I answered bumkus' question about the catching situation in the comments thread.
My best guess is they'll go ahead and bring up Mike Zunino (Talk40 #1).
If you're wondering about John Hicks (Talk40 #27) ... he's been injured as well (and has yet to play above AA).
AAA -- Sacramento 6, Tacoma 2 -- Box
We indicated that Andrew Carraway (Watch List) had a chance to show his worthiness for consideration for the free-for-all No. 5 starter spot currently tenuously held by Jeremy Bonderman.
Well, he didn't do much to help himself: 5.0 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K.
Nor did he get much offensive help... Read More
He's off to a pretty good start ...
Posted by Spectator on 06/05/13
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Single Lance
[chuckles derisively] Heh.
[unspoken] I'm a Great American Sports Hero, don'cha know?
[to reporters] Aw ... don't know nothin' about that kinda stuff.
Double Lance
I don't know what they told Other Folks at that clinic, but, for me, it was all Above Board. We all strive for Cutting Edge, y'know. 'Cause that's what Great American Sports Heroes do.
Triple Lance
It's all a series of Unfortunate but Totally Above Board Coincidences. What part of "Vindicated" don't you understand?
Quadruple Lance
They are all Jealous, Vengeful Losers Lying to Make a Buck. They... Read More
Ackley drops his hat
Posted by jemanji on 06/04/13
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20 Comments
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Rauuuuul
Was slugging .508 before his game-winning HR* in the first inning Tuesday. There have been a (very) few 41-year-olds, since WWII, who played well ...
Stan Musial, 1962 - .330/.416/.508, finished 10th in MVP
Ted Williams, 1960 - ran a 190 OPS+ (!!) in part-time play
Willie Mays, 1971 - had a .400 OBP, without hitting much, 'cause they were too dumb to stop walking him
... but much more common is for 41-year-olds, even if they are 20+ year players, to be chickenfeathers at age 41. Frank Robinson hit .245 at 38, hit .237 at 39, hit .224 at 40 and retired. Hank Aaron hit .234,... Read More
The whole is beginning to add up to the sum of the parts
Posted by jemanji on 06/04/13
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At 9.4, Felix' strikeout rate is easily the highest of his career.
At 1.7, Felix' walk rate is easily the lowest of his career.
At 0.6, Felix' homer rate is comically low, especially with the new catch-basin for homers that Safeco features out in LF. (Sandy is exactly right that Safeco's OPS+ and ERA+ indices will be warped for a while.)
At 11.7%, Felix' SwStr% is by far the best of his career.
Forget the numbers in this case; sometimes, over a short span, they reflect the underlying processes and sometimes they don't. What is actually happening is that Felix Hernandez is getting better... Read More
Also Ryan Braun and the remaining shell of what was once Alex Rodriguez
Posted by Spectator on 06/04/13
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ESPN is reporting that a massive suspension of 20 MLB players for 100 games each is about to come down.
One of the players is recently demoted Mariner Jesus Montero.
Main story: here
Jayson Stark: here
The severity comes from concluding that each offense is actually two: having contact with the clinic in Miami and lying about it when the documents first broke into the public domain.
There will be appeals and the like, and, of course, Montero is injured anyway. But still not good news at all.
Hot Stone League chimes in
Posted by jemanji on 06/04/13
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5 Comments
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Gordon and PHXTerry have an interesting tennis volley going on in the shout box. Thusly:
............
Terry: Writers all over the USA are calling for Wedge's and Zduriencik's heads. Obviously a change in those two isn't going to mean a change in Seattle baseball.
Gordon: Attendance isn't bad compared to the last year or two ... financial strength is excellent by any standard. The new TV deal is locked and loaded, and the equity buildup is sterling. The yearly cash flow is positive, as always. The ownership committee is getting what it wants.
Terry: Yeah, but if an F-500 company made... Read More
All the news that's fit for your digital computing devices
Posted by Spectator on 06/04/13
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7 Comments
Every week or so we try to link you up with other goings-on in the digital world.
***
Gotta start with Shannon Drayer's post with a recording of Dave Neihaus reading "Casey at the Bat."
***
Do you remember that folks pointed out that Jack Zduriencik and Tom McNamara seemed a little downhearted that they "settled" for Mike Zunino in last year's draft ... as if they had their mind set on one of the high school hitters who went No. 1 and No. 2 ahead of him?
Here's why:
Carlos Correa (Astros) .275/.383/.401 playing shortstop every day in the Midwest League at 18
Byron Buxton (Twins) .333/.... Read More
No offense, guys, but no offense ... Maurer Power at AAA ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/03/13
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Ah ... here come Doc and Gordon over the crest of the hill ... that's how it's supposed to work ...
Jackson played! After, I think, three days of storms.
News: Our man Ji-Man Choi (Talk40 #19) confirmed as heading to AA. And, "The Mayor" had a short term upon returning to Jackson. With Jesus Montero out for knee surgery, Rich Poythress (26intheMix) returns to Tacoma.
AAA -- Tacoma 2, Sacramento 1 [14 innings] -- Box
It was the AAA debut of Brandon Maurer (Talk40 #9)! Yes it was ... remember how he jumped from AA to the majors?
Results: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
I acknowledge that... Read More
I am youure brotha! "Oh, OBVIOUSLY"
Posted by jemanji on 06/03/13
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Throwing Arm
On the double play, he absorbs the throw, chambers his arm like Jason Statham chambering a 12-gauge round, and WHOOOM lets it fly with serious hair on the ball. He finishes with a gaze down the length of the rifle-barrel of his right arm.
I flat enjoy watching him throw the ball.
It's doubtful that he lacks the arm strength to make the throw from SS. More likely, scouts are wondering about his ability to throw while his body is at weird angles.
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John Olerud Strike Zone Management
As you've noticed, Franklin is a SERIOUS pitch stalker -- compare his early 32% swing rate to... Read More
Saunders, Maurer, Harang, Beavan all deserve better
Posted by jemanji on 06/03/13
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8 Comments
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You can talk all you want about Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak and Jeff Clement. But the fact remains: the Mariners' team offense is 97. That ain't the problem.
Further: the Mariners have 5 guys hitting the ball real well ...
All the old guys that Zduriencik just brought in -- the 3 OF's and Morales
Seager
And the other 4* guys, they just now swapped out. Meaning that --- > the M's have had a solid offense, and they just upgraded it. So, fine.
.........
Has the back of the rotation been THAT bad? It has, but the funny thing is, it shouldn't have been:
SP
ERA
xFIP
CTL... Read More
Expectations for the highest rated hitter in our system
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/03/13
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2 Comments
I would not call myself a Zunino pessimist, but I was not ecstatic about drafting him. Not his fault, I just hate first-round catchers as a general rule. I thought he was (and is) a decent player though, and I'm on record as calling him a Charles Johnson type, which is by NO means a slur... but has been taken that way a couple of times.
Funnily enough, according to Zunino himself he patterned his game after Johnson's, so there was some basis for that resemblance (I learned after the fact). CJ was a .245/.330/.435 hitter who struck out in almost 23% of his plate appearances but got on... Read More
Dominance by da numbah's
Posted by jemanji on 06/03/13
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6 Comments
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Seen on the internet ...
Dr. D: Wow, Nick Franklin has 3 hits and 5 total bases in only 10 PA's so far. A .500 AVG, that's a nice start.
SABRMATT: HOO HAW HAW HAAAWWWWWWW! Doc, would you PLEASE do your homework or else just stop using stats on this blog. Anybody with half a brain can see that Franklin's batting average is .182.
Nobody hits .500 in baseball. In fact, fangraphs publishes the leaders and in 2012, the leader was Buster Posey -- he's a catcher for the Giants -- and he batted only .336. In fact the best batting average since WWII was .401, so for you to say that... Read More
e-RAM in AAA ... Vinnie in limbo ... our man Ji-Man on the rise? ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/02/13
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It's been in the Shout Box already, but the original MarinersTalk.com Hero Vinnie Catricala (Talk40 #10) was designatged for assignment to make room for Jeremy Bonderman.
One thing you learn in the Prospect Game is that even many of the guys with very good odds don't end up making it. (What you hardly ever see is guys with really bad odds making it.)
Vinnie still has good odds, based on his three years of excellent stats. But, after a terrible 2012 and weak April, his strong May didn't get him off the bottom of the pecking order.
And there's a decent chance he'll clear waivers and return... Read More
Hip, hip, hoo- ... um ... sometimes the wise commander makes an orderly retreat to await reinforcements
Posted by Spectator on 06/02/13
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31 Comments
It was a brutal week for Jack Zduriencik and his Z-Crew. Right?
Two of his three "flagship" prospect acquisitions got shipped out to AAA (Dustin Ackley; Jesus Montero)
The third was just hanging on, but with an OBP higher than his SLG (Justin Smoak)
The guy many considered the key piece of his Doug Fister trade was quietly slipped onto the "discard" pile (Francisco Martinez (Talk40 #40))
A mid-level off-season acquisition with modest, but real, expectations crashed and burned (Robert Andino)
A promising young starter got sent down (Brandon Maurer) raising the possibility of three retreads... Read More
Montero out for month or more ... extra rest no quick cure for Pax ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/02/13
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More storms left Jackson postponed again, but James Paxton (Talk40 #3) returned quickly from knee "issues."
But now there are more than knee "issues" for Jesus Montero. He has a torn meniscus and will be out of action for four-to-six weeks. Surgery required.
AAA -- Tacoma 5, Sacramento 3 -- Box
Paxton had no miraculous cure from extra rest: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Still laboring with a lot of pitches: 88 to get through 4.0 IP. Not sure where all this is heading because nothing seems to be changing.
Meanwhile, after eight altitude games (Reno, Colorado Springs), the... Read More
Rainiers hitters continue to enjoy Colorado ... Moran is The Man ... drama in Iowa ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/01/13
Posted to blog
More storms in the heartland last night, hitting Oklahoma City (again), and cancelling the scheduled game in Jackson. Clinton managed to avoid postponement for once, though.
AAA -- Tacoma 6, Colorado Springs 5 -- Box
You know, this team ought to be good. What with three Seattle refugees and a whole host of top prospects. And they seem to be enjoying their trip to the mountains.
Who's Zuninonian now? None other! Mike Zunino (Talk40 #1) himself, with two home runs (his 10th and 11th) including the game winner.
First 17 games: .234/.354/.563
Next 17 games: .190/.200/.403 (0 BB; 22 K [... Read More