January 2013
Lotta love from the MLB.com top 100 list, also
Posted by jemanji on 01/31/13
5 Comments
.
Gordon sez,
.
This is the year when Z either proves he can build a team out of all these nice pieces, or he gifts the next GM of the Mariners with the #1 farm club and tons of club controlled pieces to use for his own benefit.
Montero, Ackley, Smoak, Seager, Saunders, Zunino, Franklin, Miller, The Big Three, the whole bullpen... it's a monster, but is it Godzilla or Frankenstein's? If it's Godzilla we should see big footprints soon... right?
.
Zduriencik was on the Hot Stove a few weeks back, pointing out how young the M's MAJOR league roster was in 2012.
He said something about 13 of... Read More
We were getting sick of 1-0 Felix victories, anyway
Posted by jemanji on 01/31/13
19 Comments
.
Lonnie of MC sez,
.
At FanFest I took a look at where the wall will be and blast if it doesn't look like a short porch to left. Maybe it's because I am more used to seeing the great expanse of Coors Field, but that left field fence at Safeco sure looks like it needs a very large green wall behind it.
.
Others have said similar.
The Mariners' stat guy, forget his name but he's got an assistant GM title, like Paul DePodesta did in Oakland. He was just on the radio again, saying Safeco will go from 28, 29, 30 as a pitchers' park to about 20 as a pitchers' park.
Other blogs: I dunno.
SSI,... Read More
When you want to project power, go with Tom Seaver in Game One
Posted by jemanji on 01/31/13
13 Comments
.
Feb. 7th Tomorrow's News Today Update: Nightengale says 7 years, $175M.
Dr. D bracketed the extension at 5/$125M if Felix was feeling like Abraham Lincoln, or 7/$200M if he was feeling a little more assertive. In either case, he's worth far more.
At 7/$175M, the Mariners get a pretty screamin' deal on the salary -- nine years from now, $25M per year for Christy Mathewson will be wayyyyyyy low. Felix did get the more years rather than the fewer, but then again, it's hard to speak of it as a loss for fans, that Felix is positioned to go into the HOF in an M's cap. Put that in your pipe... Read More
Scientific Method and the Single Blogger
Posted by jemanji on 01/31/13
2 Comments
.
=== Institutions of Higher Thought, Dept. ===
Thomas Sowell once lectured at an elite American university, and during the lecture, offered to exchange ideas on -- er, debate -- the issue of gun control. A student quoted a statistic at him and pronounced it obvious that solutions X, Y, and Z should be implemented.
Sowell replied calmly, "Perhaps that's accurate. However: if you were wrong, how would you know?"
According to Sowell, not one student in the class understood the question.
.....................
In science, experimentation is usually done with the idea of disproving a hypothesis... Read More
Hakuna Matata, amigos
Posted by jemanji on 01/31/13
12 Comments
.
1. The Mariners didn't want Casper Wells to fail. They traded Doug Fister for him.
They STILL don't want Casper Wells to fail. Doug Fister is an ongoing embarrassment to them, and Wells' failure is a daily inflammation of that wound. The Mariners would LOVE to get a contribution from Casper Wells.
.................
2. The Mariners lean toward hypothesis two, the one that posits Wells to be a part-time player with fatal flaws (mental, physical or relating to his strike zone).
..................
3. The Mariners tried to prove themselves wrong: from June 28, 2012, through August 7,... Read More
Saber corner
Posted by jemanji on 01/29/13
7 Comments
.
1. Tip o' the Johnny Bench Backwards Catcher Cap to 13of2, who has been talking about Shoppach all winter. Now maybe he'd like to summarize for us what he likes about Shoppach.
2. On to the shtick.
................
Forget about what the chart above DOESN'T tell you. Consolidate in your mind for a moment what it DOES tell you.
Don't clutter your head with how predictive the chart is, what it tells you (or doesn't tell you) about the future, what the 9,000 reasons are that the chart might be misleading, such as the mix of pitchers that Shoppach caught, and all that.
What DOES it tell you... Read More
Basking in the luminosity of The Great Batsby ....
Posted by jemanji on 01/29/13
16 Comments
.
Now that pic took guts, baby.
One time Dave Valle hit a home run and took like 25 seconds to circle the bases. (Usually it took him 23.) An Angel hit him the next time up. "It's like he's Babe Ruth when he hits one," the pitcher groused. You're kinda supposed to know your place in the game.
I looooov eeeeet :- ) ... expecting a tweet from Richard Sherman on this one.
...............
Saber corner? "Saber" meaning --- > going by results, performance analysis, outcomes, as opposed to going by the scouting eye. "Major league organizations pay entirely too much information to what... Read More
Charlie, you got a lot of guts coming back here Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/29/13
17 Comments
.
Feb 7 update - if you REALLY don't get this, Mo' Dawg is willing to spell it out in the comments. Thanks for coming in today.
.
Studieth been done, saying that drive tired can be as bad as drive drunk. I wadn't shure wad they ment by that until like now. The potht won' be gud but its fun to type with yellow meemies screaming across the iMac dial.
Don't feeel like proving everything. Will just tell you the truth. My teacher said if I just tell the truth nobody will get made at me. And oh, last night Algernon died. They were real sad when they told me but I don't get why. He had a... Read More
Eyes slideways for the gun show
Posted by jemanji on 01/28/13
47 Comments
.
Lonnie of MC, who has been very reliable, sez
.
I can't believe that the greater Seattle internet intelligencia isn't blowing up over this little tid bit of information that came out this past weekend. During the off season Nick Franklin went from 160 lbs to 195 lbs. That is an increase of 35 lbs of bash-brother muscle! I can't wait to see him in action! Doing this tells me that he is preparing to transition from SS to 2nd or even 3rd base.
WHOOOOOOOOOOPS
So, we're looking at an imminent roids ban eh. Michael Morse got dinged on it ... when he was a minor leaguer, before he had the MLBPA... Read More
John Dewan Prediction System
Posted by jemanji on 01/26/13
3 Comments
.
Colin Kaepernick has already locked down the MTP award. ... has there ever been a good player in the NFL, NBA, or MLB with as many tats?
In my generation, we still tend to see this kind of ink as making a statement of rebellion, to some extent. I'm an open-minded guy, but tattoos don't mean nothing. Try and become CEO of Boeing with this much ink, or with a Brian Wilson beard. Never happen. It's America, there's no law and there shouldn't be. But there are plusses and minuses to a presentation like this.
In your generation -- you 20-somethings -- what does this say to you, if anything... Read More
Of pitchers, and blogs, in search of transmogrification
Posted by jemanji on 01/25/13
10 Comments
.
=== The UGLY ===
.
BIll your thoughts on Brandon Webb. Yes he did have a short career but he did dominate to an extent. You can't hold a guy at fault for an injury unless he did something stupid to cause it. If he never throws another pitch again do you think he deserves some sort of recognition/respect from the HOF/MLB? Not saying he deserves his name on a plaque in Cooperstown but the guy was on the way to having one
Asked by: Anonymous
Answered: 8/24/2010
1) I believe that you're exaggerating what he has accomplished. There are a dozen pitchers who have careers like that in every... Read More
Somebody talk Dr. D into a finesse pitcher? Vot next?
Posted by jemanji on 01/25/13
27 Comments
.
006. Do you know what that MEANS? - Clive Owen, ominously
Yes. It means you are one short of zee Big Time. - Steve Martin, Pink Panther
.
=== The GOOD ===
I've got to admit that Porcello physically looks like he's on the verge of taking a Doug Fister plateau leap, or could be, conceivably. For starters (heh) check him on this video rat cheer. Don't those tall, overhand, angled, located pitchers kinda remind ya?
...........
Bullet two on the Plateau Leap Talking Points:
Year
K/9
RADKE NUMBER
5.6
Porcello, 2009
4.7
2010
4.7
2011
5.1
2012
5.5
The Radke number being Ron Shandler's rule of... Read More
Now Dr. D is alarmed
Posted by jemanji on 01/25/13
23 Comments
.
Okay, you came in to the boardroom, you made your PowerPoint presentation. You wanted approval for $15,000 to buy the flatbed truck for the warehouse. We were a little uncertain about the whole thing, on a lot of levels ... is this make of truck really as good as Hyundai? Do we really have $15,000 to allocate to that? Does it really better us to have our own flatbed, and moving people, as opposed to paying the contractors to move things?
No, you had the whole meeting nailed, you had your answers ready and then some, and we allocated the $15,000. The owner even extended it to $16,800... Read More
.. and if you're not a genius, at least be a Subject Matter Expert
Posted by jemanji on 01/22/13
27 Comments
.
Kelly Gaffney sez,
.
.
What I find most compelling about the (Jaso) trade is that I never would have done the trade, but compelled to think about it, I have now concluded it was the right move. Most criticisms seem to view it as a failure of old school color by numbers thinking. I think it reflects Z's confidence that -- since he has been given the time to build organizational depth -- he can always fill the back end of the roster with capable role players. If the M's saw Jaso as a catcher, rather than a platoon DH, he'd still be on the team.
.
=== Geniuses SHOULD See Things the Rest of... Read More
And Major League Baseball (TM) cleanup hitters
Posted by jemanji on 01/22/13
28 Comments
Dr. K sez,
.
Count me in the camp that initially didn't understand why JZ exchanged Jaso for Morse. The conversation here at SSI has changed my mind and here are the main reasons.
Let's go along with the idea that Jaso is one of your best hitters in 2013, meaning you bat him 3rd in the lineup. Well, what happens when your prime hitter has an obvious achilles heel? If you rely on Jaso in the later innings (implicit with the assumption he is one of your best hitters), you have to accept that he is going to be facing a lot of LH specialist relievers in key situations. Why would you construct a... Read More
... when do pitchers report, again?!
Posted by jemanji on 01/21/13
.
=== The Term "GREAT STUFF" Gets Tossed Around a Lot These Days .... ===
If you've got nothing Mariners that's better to do right now, head to MLB.com and enjoy this particular Capps vid. G'wan, nothing wrong with a little sunshine and baseball. Pitchers report in like four days, right?
Capps' first heater is so hard to see that a lefty batter, Josh Reddick, swings over the top of it. Ya don't swing over fastballs when ya miss 'em; ya swing underneath 'em, 'cause of the angle of the swing arc and the 'rise' of the pitch. Watch it again and you'll see that Reddick pulls one of those Nolan... Read More
Hide the women and children, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/21/13
29 Comments
.
As a general rule, kids like this (by which we mean, Golden Boy relievers on three-year plans to become rich closers) are works-in-progress. They follow a fairly predictable roto arc. Here by the way is Ron Shandler's writeup of Capps for the coming season:
.
Converted starter saved 19 games in AA (72K in 50 IP, 1.26 ERA) by pounding 94-97 MPH fastballs (sic - Dr D). Wasn't overmatched in first MLB trial (28K in 25 IP with .260 OBA), but command predictably lagged. Closer-in-waiting could be worth a few holds from the get-go.
LIMA Plan: A+
2013 Proj: 10.1 K, 3.1 BB, 0.7 HR
Ron-o-... Read More
I'll take about a million of 'em ... well, gimme two, at any rate
Posted by jemanji on 01/19/13
13 Comments
.
We break from our moratorium on actual baseball pictures in order to bring you this virtual representation of ... sunlight.
.
=== Do We Really Need Matt Damon AND Mark Wahlberg? ===
Ghost mentions about Marcum in the comments. (My wife's family is a Marcum family, third-gen from Ireland and England - cf. the Shaun spelling. Betcha they're not too distantly related.)
Shaun Marcum and Hisashi Iwakuma are two of the most-comparable pitchers in the majors. Both use a 25-25-25-25 type ratio of pitches; Marcum uses a killer 80 changeup, Iwakuma a 84 shuuto in order to glean the necessary MLB... Read More
aiki-Doc taking office visits
Posted by jemanji on 01/18/13
19 Comments
.
HERE IS THE ESPN VIDEO, a 2:05 clip in which Michael Morse explains the dynamics of his hitting motion.
.
I was in a terrible slump in the late 1970's. The harder I tried, the worse I got. Finally I was walking the course one day and a fellow pro, seeing the look on my face, asked me "Johnny, do you LIKE golf?" After that I never had a bad slump again. - Johnny Miller, ancient SI interview, reproduced from memory
.
BSR linked us up to the ESPN vid ... we ought to embed that puppy in the sidebar. A picture's worth 1,000 words. :: wait :: OK, it's embedded. Go check out the 2-minute... Read More
... whether he can keep hitting righties is another question :- )
Posted by jemanji on 01/18/13
10 Comments
.
=== Overexposure, Dept. ===
Seen at BJOL:
About platoon splits. The one player that I remember having a reverse platoon split and a long career was Brett Butler. I looked him up and I am partially correct. His OBP v righties was .374, v. lefties .384. He slugged better the right way. (OK, Brett could never really be said to slug but you get my drift.)
Asked by: Steve N
Answered: 1/18/2013
I do. Butler would be the prototype of a player with a low platoon split. Since there is no platoon differential on balls in play, the platoon split is proportional to strikeouts, walks and... Read More
Cognitive dissonance, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/18/13
58 Comments
.
Offense is not only additive but multiplicative, symbiotic in ways we haven't captured yet.
According to math, there is no clutch and Chone Figgins is worth 5 WAR. According to life, I'm not seeing that. Detroit put Miguel Cabrera at third base - that's how much they worried about defense vs. offense.
It's more important to get the offense functioning - or at least the majority of GMs act (and pay) like it is. If you're going to pay for defense, then that's what pitchers are for. Having my defensive guy standing on 2nd base all the time when the 3rd out is recorded doesn't help me win... Read More
... granted, we didn't include the DL stat
Posted by jemanji on 01/16/13
31 Comments
.
In addition to the famed wOBA, wRC+, and WAR statistics, we'd like to recommend that Fangraphs include the following metrics on each player card. If these factors were viewed in formal publication on a reputable geek site, these variables would then be deemed to actually exist in space-time, and much GM-fan disconnect and heartbreak could be avoided.
Including but not limited to:
.
REUP - the chance, expressed as a percentage, that a newly-acquired player will sign a below-market extension with his new club.
Last season, for example, SSI mis-stated this number as "2" for Hisashi Iwakuma,... Read More
It's all so plaaaauuuuuusible, but...
Posted by jemanji on 01/16/13
15 Comments
.
Nothing unlikely has to occur, in order for Zduriencik's move to hit the triple cherries and pay off big. As I see it, the success of the trade depends on three things:
Morse re-signs in Seattle past 2013, at reasonable dollars, providing a David Ortiz-type presence.
We have seen John Jaso's best, offensively. He's going to step back from here.
Jaso isn't realistically a 100-games catcher.
Oh, and we're also assuming that (a) Morse has a couple of years left in him, and that (b) Mike Zunino is NOT a HOF'er starting in 2013. If (a) is wrong, the deal's terrible in any case. If (b) is... Read More
playing rotisserie with the local nine
Posted by jemanji on 01/16/13
9 Comments
.
Right about one year ago, we celebrated the 1977 White Sox. They went from 97 losses to 90 wins, making Bill James' top ten all-time list of unlikely reversals. They did it precisely by punting defense.
Not only did they go from 65 wins to 90, but that's actually how much they improved, in one winter, by stockpiling DH's. They went from 586 runs to 844 runs in one winter. Their pitching got a little worse; actually it's safe to assume their pitching didn't get worse. :- ) But in 1977, the Sox had a 114 offense and a 97 pitching - plenty to make a run at the World Serious.
Mo' Dawg, who... Read More
the politics of glory, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/15/13
7 Comments
The "correct" 2012 HOF ballot would have had 8-10 names on it. James' ballot consisted of,
.
Raines, Rocket, Biggio, Piazza, Edgar Martinez, Trammell, McGriff, McGwire. Maybe another one or two. ..I dunno.
We sent him this question, this morning:
.
You had eight names for us on your 2012 HOF ballot and "maybe one or two more." I think I've read everything of yours OTHER than the Hall of Fame works -- just have never been super interested in the subject -- but maybe you'd be willing to provide an 'executive summary' of the political aspects for those readers who missed the books.
...... Read More
of leagues, cities, and owners
Posted by jemanji on 01/15/13
4 Comments
.
On the subject of NBA franchise relocation, James had an intriguing way to organize our thoughts:
.
Personally, I don't think it's important to preserve [statistical] records, because we'll adapt to the new records, just like we adapted to huge strikeout changes, etc, (or NFL going from 14- to 16-game season and eventually 18). Even so, going to 8-inning game will radically change bullpen usage, but, we've seen that over the past 30 years anyway.
Asked by: tangotiger
Answered: 1/14/2013
Well. ...philosophically, you and I share a predisposition in favor of change; I think we're both... Read More
... it was inevitable
Posted by jemanji on 01/13/13
13 Comments
.
In Ball Four, Jim Bouton liked to reminisce about the early-60's Yankees. 1964 was "the year the Yankees stopped winning pennants," but they won it that year, with 99 victories ahead of the White Sox' 98 wins and the Orioles' 97 wins.
Bouton talked about the fact that the lineup, by that point, was Mickey Mantle and baling wire. Which it kind of was, at least compared to the great Yankee lineups of yesteryear. On the mound, there was a ramshackle three-man rotation consisting of Whitey Ford and two no-names. The Yankees won "because they were the only team that KNEW HOW to win a pennant... Read More
The market seems to be correcting itself this winter
Posted by jemanji on 01/11/13
2 Comments
.
Q. How would SSI calculate the "correct" prospect load for a Justin Upton deal?
A. My considered opinion is that these kinds of prospect-for-star trades are (normally) far too complicated to "solve" with math.
.
Q. Upton's contract will underpay him by $20-40M, depending on your projection for his WAR. Taijuan and Franklin project to be underpaid by about $28-45M, total for both, during their first six years. That's sound enough, right?
A. We wouldn't use batting average alone to evaluate trades of position players, and for similar reasons, we can't use this paradigm alone to... Read More
You don't REALLY believe that people have agendas, you kook?
Posted by jemanji on 01/11/13
17 Comments
.
=== Plot Spoiler and Caveat Emptor ===
Here there be philosophy, ethics, and politics, as they relate to business and baseball. If that's not your thing, you might wish to click on past this one.
Tacoma Rain axs,
.
Guys - hang in there with me on this, cuz' I'm really not trying to prove Bigfoot killed Oswald here....
The Mariners are always tight lipped about everything. Right? EVERYTHING. But the M's are ALWAYS - NO COMMENT - on any trades proposals, ESPECIALLY the ones that do not work. Jack has made it a point NEVER to include names.
Yet for THIS trade proposal, we know EVERY name... Read More
Lots of WAR going out, but much of it redundant
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/13
16 Comments
Q. Paxton*, Franklin, Furbush and Pryor?
A. The DBacks should be DDEEEEEEE-LIGHTED with that return. Man, if I were dealing a problem attitude for a rebuild ... two big time ML-ready blue chippers, one arm and one bat, AND two 10-strikeout ML relievers. KA-CHING baby!
Furbush and Pryor is one thumb to each eye, but can you hold up your blockbuster over middle relievers, when you've got pitchers coming out your ears?
Super impressed if that's what the DBacks did, squeeze the sponge to get those two middle relievers that the M's can't afford to argue about.
.
Q. Earlier you called... Read More
Time to phone a friend
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/13
22 Comments
.
Q. The Mariners ax for a dance, and Upton demurely bats his eyes and shakes his head no ... while meeting the M's gaze expectantly. Maybe he wants to play for a winner?
A. The M's won-loss record has nothing to do with anything. Almost for sure.
Fans on the ESPN boards will talk like, who's the funnest team to play for? Thass' where I wanna go, so that's where the player wants to go. Not hardly. USS Mariner aptly pointed out that Upton's no-trade list has morphed each year, and they always tab those teams he's most likely to be traded to. It's all about "having as much say as... Read More
'First and goal at the one'
Posted by jemanji on 01/09/13
13 Comments
.
Sent this to Jill Bames:
.
A question I've never gotten my ethical bearings on -- the potential move now of the Sacramento Kings to Seattle. As you see it, should a Seattle basketball fan feel sheepish about the situation in general?
The new franchise will, or won't, be (or feel like) the Sonics on a civically psychic level?
Certainly you have a strong perspective on the general issue of sports teams relocating, the ethic that applies, and the tendency for it to turn out to be emotionally satisfying, or to manifest good karma so to speak, or not ...
.
I'm looking for something a... Read More
Shed Smoak and Carp, use a 5-to-make-4 with RF and C
Posted by jemanji on 01/08/13
2 Comments
.
Q. Rauuuuuul, and Kendrys, followed by Michael Morse, followed by who? Adam Dunn? I'm pretty sure Boog Powell is still alive.
A. Before we wave Morse's code off as too staticky, let's remember from whence we came. They ARE making offers* on him.
How they would configure is not very relevant to whether they will import a cleanup hitter, of one type or another, to play 1B/DH.
Look, if it were a deal for Billy Butler rumored, we wouldn't even be talking about the amputations implied, right? You slough off the guys worse than him, and move on.
.
Q. ::BONK:: My head just hit the desk. ... Read More
Hired Guns and Comeuppance, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/08/13
.
Q. So you stash Smoak for a while?
A. If you can't trade Smoak, right, (um, yeah, right ) you stash him. You can spin the carousel for four months until Morales is orbited on July 31. It's fluid and dynamic and I like it -- presuming you can't get Stanton or somebody, of course.
.
You do waste Carp in this scenario. But then again, Michael Morse is an absolutely pitch-perfect model of what Mike Carp would look like if he hit the triple cherries all the way across.
Get used to wasting young talent. They're not playing Stars & Scrubs coherently enough to avoid the wastage. It's... Read More
BaseballHQ projects 290/330/500 in a pitcher's park
Posted by jemanji on 01/08/13
.
Q. To which bats would you compare Michael Morse?
A. As far as bases lost and bases gained, he stacks up pretty decently to Billy Butler. And Alex Gordon. And Nick Swisher. And Kendrys Morales. We're guessing you've heard of them.
BaseballHQ projects him to 290/330/500 for the upcoming year, this assuming he's in the Nationals' home park. SSI figures Safeco to be a friendlier park than that, and Morse's hulking body would be a brilliant test case for the new fences.
...........
As far as swings that remind ... Morse when he came up was consciously imitating ARod. A member of the... Read More
He ain't slugging .492 life by accident
Posted by jemanji on 01/08/13
.
Spent the morning in general anesthesia; who knew that P90X would literally bust a gut, but it did. So if we don't have the energy tonight to screen-grab the videos, perhaps you'll find it in your blue-and-teal little hearts to forbear. ::bah humbug::
Right-clicking the link to open the video up in a new window ...
.
=== The Swing, to RF ===
Who does this remind you of, the guy taking this swing rat cheer? Key components:
Stands tall at the plate
Wide shoulders, narrow hips, body closed
Spine-rending, Canseco-like torque of the upper body with bat followthrough cracking him in the back (... Read More
Come 2014, Dr. D remote views an awkward silence across the land...
Posted by jemanji on 01/08/13
17 Comments
.
=== Bret Boone? Mike Piazza? ===
BTW, have you ever thought about the difference between "pretty" and "beautiful"? In Greek, beauty carries with it the idea of nobility, of that which is morally sound, of that which imparts a sense of well-being.
Ugly things, you're looking forward to the moment at which you can look away. Pretty things, you're looking forward to spending some extra moments viewing them. Beautiful things, you look forward to thinking about them after you viewed them. A Japanese cherry blossom tree is not only pink, but it's lovingly cultured, it's alive, it is a... Read More
G-Money flyover
Posted by jemanji on 01/07/13
14 Comments
.
=== Ji-Man Choi ===
Ji-Man Choi has not been healthy. It’s like losing Snelling’s early years, because all the kid has done everywhere is hit, albeit in brief spurts. He’s strictly a 1B/DH now (no catching with a broken back) but the 2 year detour in his development is the Ms fault, not his. Of course, it’s hard to get 1B hype unless you were really highly drafted; the bar is set pretty high in performance for those who weren’t.
Just keep in mind that after only a season’s worth of at-bats, a very raw 21 year old Choi has a .325/.430/.485 line, without much in the way of homeruns.... Read More
SSI - tomorrow's news today
Posted by jemanji on 01/06/13
32 Comments
.
Trent Dilfer was en fuego Sunday night -- they were literally running in from off camera to fan out the flames. Did you catch it? Whether it was Dilfer's Dimes, whether it was post-RGIII reaction, whether it was Wilson analysis, whether it was being called in to swap punches with Boomer and Tom Jackson ... you can't stop Trent Dilfer, you can only hope to contain him.
.
=== Flinch Response ===
Dilfer marvelled at the Redskins coming out and splashing the bowling pins all over the back of the catch-basin on their first two strikes. Big crowd, bright lights in the nation's capital, only... Read More
The pattern recognition paradigm
Posted by jemanji on 01/04/13
.
=== A Brief History of Time ===
From 1977 to about 1995, sabermetricians taught us to focus on component skills. For example, Mat Olkin preached that "Olkin ERA" (OBP x SLG x 31) predicts ERA better than ERA predicts itself. ... Slugging percentage predicts RBI better than RBI predicts itself. And so on.
I think it was Tony Robbins who went race driving with a sensei ... the sensei taught him that when there is a crash, you've got to look at the track line rather than the cars flying around, because the line will open up. Maybe they were using a simulator. Anyway, after two or three... Read More
CT% up, up, and away
Posted by jemanji on 01/04/13
2 Comments
.
=== The Tools of Victory(TM), Dept. ===
Shandler sez, on Justin Upton for 2013,
.
Maintained CT% gains but suffered major power outage. He hinted that April thumb injury may have been a factor. Finished strong with 6 HR, 137 PX in Sept. That doesn't erase Apr-Aug, but given age and previous track record, could bounce back in a big way. Buy at a discount ($29 roto) if you can ... UP: 2011, or more.
.
:: taps chin ::
This is interesting, the implication that Upton's contact rate trend is the most important factor in his assessment. (In chess, a master wins by sorting through various... Read More
PX falls off a cliff in 2012, but...
Posted by jemanji on 01/04/13
2 Comments
.
Q. So Upton looks like a hitter, both in the box and in the strikeout trends. Anything else on that subject?
A. If you look at his plate coverage, as in this hot zone chart, it reflects the same thing you see on TV -- that Upton is balanced on his feet and that he can easily reach all parts of the strike zone.
If you look at his scatter chart, you see a Montero-, Edgar-like willingness to take the ball up the middle. In fact, the complaint last year is that he wouldn't pull the ball in the air.
We're not saying that Upton is a certified .300 hitter. We're just saying that he's a... Read More
Last year, #4 in Fangraphs trade value
Posted by jemanji on 01/04/13
20 Comments
.
Q. Is Upton comparable in value to Giancarlo Stanton? Suppose you could give two blue-chippers for Upton, or four for Stanton?
A. No, no, no, NO.
The Yankees have a standing offer. Any five (5) for Felix. That's how I feel about Giancarlo Stanton. (Although, coming from the Mariners, "any five" means something completely different than it means coming from New York.)
We're talking about Upton as a consolation prize.
.
Q. Is he a settle?
A. He's been a 5-6 WAR player twice in the last four years, and he's been a 3-WAR player twice. He'd feel like a settle if you hadn't already... Read More
Sooooooo easy to beat the bookies
Posted by jemanji on 01/04/13
.
SportsMemo gives us "one of the best blog posts in history" for the first weekend of the NFL playoffs. They've found the Rosetta Stone of sports handicapping -- in the NFL, just decode the weekend using Strength of Schedule.
They report that since 2002, teams with a tougher Strength of Schedule won 29 games and lost 11 -- regardless of home or away location. And where the SOS difference was large, the teams with tougher schedules went -- wait for it -- 18 and 3 straight up.
This is talking about first round only. Why did they edit out SOS in further rounds of the playoffs?
CYNIC: ... Read More
The Founding Father casts his ballot
Posted by jemanji on 01/04/13
2 Comments
.
Tongue in cheek, we like to refer to a 'Founding Father'. But: not-tongue-in-cheek, wouldn't it be great to know how George Washington and Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Jefferson would vote on today's issues? That is, if they were brought fully up to speed on 2013 society's context and all of the point/counterpoint?
Here's Benjamin Franklin, as it were, on the issue of Edgar Martinez and the HOF. There's probably no sector of sabermetrics on which James specializes more than the HOF.
........................
I'm wide open to an argument against Edgar Martinez' HOF candidacy. But that... Read More
Please please tell me now, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 01/03/13
6 Comments
.
=== Is There Something I ... er, You Should Say ===
Geoff Baker fired off an eyebrow-raising salvo this week:
No matter what the Mariners say in public, there is plenty of internal debate going on about where Franklin’s future lies. They aren’t sure whether he’s better off at shortstop or second base. Yes, I know the excuse for his Arizona Fall League time at second base was a valid one, that another team affiliated with the Peoria club had a designated “priority” player at the shorstop position who had to be played there ahead of Franklin.
But that doesn’t explain Franklin playing second... Read More
Though you might not see it coming
Posted by jemanji on 01/03/13
9 Comments
.
=== Miller Time, Dept. ===
The guts of Geoffy's revelation is that Brad Miller is holding the Willy Wonka Gold Ticket from the org. That, I didn't know. Did you?
When you talk about 'intangibles' in a minor leaguer, you're not talking about Raul Ibanez' leadership. The Mariners drafted Nick Franklin -- to the general hilarity -- because they felt he had the intangibles that would allow him to overcome resistance to his development. That means more ability to overcome resistance than that possessed by other great athletes.
Zduriencik's ability to point his finger at a 19-year-old, and... Read More