March 2012
Posted by jemanji on 03/31/12
8 Comments
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No disrespect, I just don't think we can completely figure out baseball based off of sabermetrics alone.
Jack Zduriencik does not primarily use Baseball Prospectus or Fangraphs to decide whether Shawn Kelley is coming north. Statistics are backwards-looking! What Zduriencik needs is a reliever who will get outs in the 2012 season.
Most people would understand "sabermetrics," as Andrew uses it, to mean "the statistics you can find on Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs." So, the comment would bring derision in some quarters. But let's remember that Jack Zduriencik... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/31/12
21 Comments
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Before you read this, you should probably read that. Will help you keep your nerves under control. For this, not that.
Do we get a second draw at the 2006 sensation that Mark Lowe created? Hit & Run sez,
Just saw two today who fit the bill [for fixing the bullpen]. Well I didn't see them. I listened to the spring training game and watched it on game day. Carter Capps was regularly throwing 98 and got a couple up to 99. He got a swinging strike on a change up and threw at least one curve. He was throwing strikes with both his FB and change. Among his two strike outs in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/12
5 Comments
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=== Michael Pineda at Lookout Landing ===
Sully with his typically likeable-and-brainy musings on last year's SSI darling. The SSI follow-on here: let's recall that Taro flatly stated that he did not like Michael Pineda's chances to stay healthy. Here we are, sooner rather than later - scratch that, much sooner.
Here's an ominous report about his shoulder soreness during the game. In the mood to see what Yankee fans are saying after the shoulder report? Here's a thread at River Ave. Blues. The comments post starts it off with "heads better roll in the front office" and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/12
7 Comments
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It ain't easy, looking at a Yahoo.com roto base of pitchers, to suggest specific relief pitchers that --- > Jack Zduriencik could target for termination.
J.P. Howell is a pending FA, fans 10 per game in setup, and Tampa ain't going to be able to pay a setup man $12-20M for 3-4 years. (By way of comparison, ChiSox setup man Matt Thornton just signed for $6M per year, times 3 years.)
You hear about the Mariners trading Brandon League this year: that's because League is a pending FA, an MLB Closer(TM), and is looking at $10M+ per year this winter. You deal him or lose... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/12
14 Comments
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Spectator with his own site at MarinersTalk! ::crowd goes wild:: Well, strictly speaking, Spectator with a trial coupla posts to see whether he, and admins, are up for the mission. I'm up for it, thass fo sho.
His Charmander-beefy ideas now flip the card over into full Charizard evolution. Your mission, should you choose to accept it Spec, is to crank your attacks from "interesting thread comments" style into "formal article presentation" mode.
There are many days when I don't have enough Mariner stuff to read. I hit SSI first, to see what volleys have come back over the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/28/12
10 Comments
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=== Elliot Carver "Tomorrow's News Today" Dept. ===
1. Bet the UNDER on the runs scored. Check.
But no need to panic, kiddies. The M's struck some balls sharply. McCarthy and Colon didn't give them anything cheap, but not all SP's will pitch as well as McCarthy and Colon pitched -- ahead in so many counts, so well located in the hitters' counts. Nor will so many batted balls find mitts.
Hey, the M's are on pace for 162 homers. Scope out the team run totals for high-HR ballclubs ;- )
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2. Colon moves the heater around the zone at will, taking advantage of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/28/12
6 Comments
Q. Where does Vargas stand, going into 2012?
A. Assuming that you go by the WAR paradigm, which uses theoretical ERA "should have beens" rather than actual ERA's ... he has posted WAR totals of 2.4 and 2.6 the last two seasons, totalling $21.0 million worth of on-field performance in 2010-11. His actual ERA's have been a little better than that.
Vargas was red-hot in September 2011, of course -- he started doing the Bedard Twist and he gained a good 1-2 mph out of it. It made a huge difference. In 31 September innings, he fanned 27 men and allowed only 1 homer. If only we could see... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/28/12
3 Comments
Q. How does Bartolo get away with throwing only one pitch?
A. He locates it, and he has a pretty deceptive short-arm delivery. That's all.
If you're wondering whether Pineda, Paxton, et al need a 3rd pitch, you should be asking yourself why Bartolo doesn't need a 2nd. :- ) He has a little slider that he shows like 1 or 2 times per inning, but check its run value. -2.50 runs below average per 100 sliders thrown. And that is it for his offspeed arsenal. Bartolo Colon just throws fastballs.
It ain't like they're 97, either. He sits at 92 mph.
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Q. Can't the batters just dial up the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/28/12
15 Comments
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And let's try to follow the Pregame D-O-V Scan as best we can, though the mainframe has a bleary monitor... ye'll be wanting some cyber-biscotti with ye'rre coffee, and as you know, we live to serve...
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=== Brandon McCarthy ===
The "under" betting line had gone 4-0 in the last four M's-McCarthy games. The game followed script and you can make that 5-0. Little things mattered big in a game like this.
In a scoreless game, Michael Saunders smoked a line drive to RF. Beautiful! He stole second base, too. Saunders for President, or at least for starting center field.
Whoop! ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/27/12
5 Comments
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Tracking the pre-game checkpoints:
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=== Felix ===
There was no radar gun, anywhere on TV or on the 'net that I saw, so we had to eyeball it. The first inning, it wasn't clear - Felix' stuff looked maybe a little soft. Hard to tell...
The second and beyond, there was little doubt. Felix' changeup in particular was hellacious, and there were several times that lefty A's hitters such as Seth Smith and Cliff Pennington had literally no chance of making contact with it. It was a 90-mph knuckleball that dropped sharply just as they swung. We watched them try to track with... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/27/12
7 Comments
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=== Brandon McCarthy ===
Famously used sabermetrics to reinvent his game, spending 2010 in the minors, and then coming out the other side as one of the AL's elite starting pitchers.
OLD McCARTHY: Used a stereotype 3-pitch mix, FB-Change-Overhand Curve, to throw lots of fly balls and run 4.70 ERA's.
NEW McCARTHY: Throws 40% fadeaway fastballs, 40% biting cutters, and 20% curves, to get tons of grounders and a 1+ walk rate.
Think Doug Fister, but maybe even better. McCarthy was one of the league's 10 best pitchers in 2012, and his second half provided even bigger gains. If... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/27/12
5 Comments
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Q. Does SSI buy the idea that Erasmo Ramirez needs to be kept well under 200 IP this year?
A. Am very skeptical about this belief system, because (1) I haven't seen any convincing studies on it, none that convinced me anyway, and (2) logically, I don't see why sitting on the couch strengthens your muscles. If you go to the gym once per week to lift weights, is there some reason you should take June, July, and August off?
The James paradigm, which he shares with the Japanese, is that pitching is good for the arm. James thought that 125 pitches, for the 30-year-old Roger... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/27/12
10 Comments
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Q. Is Jesus Montero really a catcher?
A. We were told often, and emphatically, and for a long time, that "Montero, C" was a joke. It is now impossible to wipe the smirks off our faces when Montero's position comes up.
We haven't shaken off the icky of that. But if we want to analyze the Mariners' future, we'd better get it through our heads that Jesus Montero is a catcher. The Mariners have been clear from the start, and they are even clearer now. Miguel Olivo serves the function of team captain right now, so you hear the expected noises about Olivo being the man. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/27/12
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There's a scene in "Thor." Having been stripped of all innate power beyond that of, say, Albert Pujols or Steve Hutchinson, Thor uses a 300-lb. bench press and his godlike confidence to rip through a S.H.I.E.L.D. base camp, tossing the world's best operatives through the nylon walls left and right.
As he does this, Thor is unaware that he's scoped by a S.H.I.E.L.D. sniper who can, at any time, drop him like Didier Drogba faking a penalty in a Chelsea-Arsenal game. Thor tosses a couple more agents through the wall and the sniper drawls into his headset to Nick Fury: "You... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/12
5 Comments
............. If you can't trust your teammates, who can you trust? ...........
I like the M's bats, and two jet-lagged preseason games don't change that. It's funny about us sabermetricians. We talk all big and tough about "300 AB's is a small sample size," and then we watch the M's lose two games and just widdle our pants.
Ackley, Carp, Smoak and Montero will hit. Maybe, and I doubt it, but maybe Smoak and Montero won't hit until next year. But they'll all hit.
Seager we're not sure about, exactly. Saunders we're not sure about, exactly. A +19 lbs. Gutierrez we're not sure about,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/12
2 Comments
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Q. Might Ichiro rebound to +5 WAR?
A. Nobody is asking for that. The thing is, last year Ichiro dropped from 5 WAR to 0 WAR. We're discussing whether he can do 3 WAR. Capiche?
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Here, check this WAR grid, the 25 best players since 1990 (though my 1990ff filter might not survive the hyperlink; you could have to reset it). Look at what these great players' WAR's were, at age 38.
If you don't click through, here's the exec sum: great players like Biggio, Sheffield, and Piazza are not racking up 7 WAR per season in their late 30's. They're fighting to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/12
7 Comments
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A reasonably-worded argument against Ichiro's defense as he moves into his late 30's. And we give it the respect of a little point-by-point:
I think what happened is this. In April, he was trying to get to stuff, failing, and showing up as a bad defender on ESPN. So, as the year progressed, he recognized earlier that he wasn't going to be able to reach balls, and positioned for the rebound or cut-off. Visually, he looks competent, but his actual outs remain well below average all season. He was not getting to the same balls from May to October -- he was just doing so "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/12
9 Comments
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IceX has a report, from onsite. Not just onsite as in "I was at Safeco last night," but onsite as in "I watched Ken Griffey Jr. in 1989-1999, and I watched him in his last season." IceX Onsite:
9-3, the Giants didn't score in only 2 innings.
Iwakuma... Write him off. Let's hope he can put it back together in short relief. He has the control and location, but his stuff is pure mush. Can't throw much more than 135 kph.
Iwakuma himself apologized to the press: I felt okay, no injuries, but I just couldn't execute my pitches the way I expect. Fair enough, Mr. WBC-san, out... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/12
2 Comments
Daddy-O at first objects to being anointed an SSI Yo-Yo. Dr. D repossesses the award in the middle of the night, indignant that Daddy-O didn't appreciate the honor. Daddy-O, sadder but wiser, asks for his award back, but inquires as to the availability of even higher awards. Does SSI have anything like the Fickle Finger of Fate award?
I knew we'd been grasping for something, but wasn't quite sure what it was. Hey, they recycled 21 Jump Street and that was only 20 years ago. This one's going on 40 years ago. I bet you that we even have to explain it ......
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The Flying... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/25/12
8 Comments
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IcebreakerX, a resident of Japan, says
Hanshin was a 4th place team in a six team league last season. However, they do have some pitching. The starter, Iwata, had a 2.29 ERA last season over 170 innings. The M's lone run came on Wells' HR, off Japan's best closer, Fujikawa (Career K/9 of 11.95!). In short, losing to them was an embarassment, but maybe not as awful as we might be led to think.
Tonight was definitely Hanshin home field advantage with the songs and chanting that's all Japanese baseball, and I expect the same for the Giants when the M's play them tomorrow night... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/24/12
2 Comments
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Cool Papa sez,
Weird that they would have Paxton in AA (along with Taijuan and Hultzen).
He already pitched there last season. I guess it's a way to keep pressure off the org to have them in the majors the moment there is an opening or someone struggles. It will be the perfect chance to see exactly how Walker compares to the older, college-trained pitchers, which will be fun.
Who was it, Jeff Sullivan who noted that Tennessee is a better climate in April and May?
Along with that, we fancy that Jay-Z forsees a Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz type golf group, one stimulating another... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/24/12
6 Comments
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Q. Is Ryan's glove as good as they say it is?
A. Looks like it to me, yes. (More to the point, there is some new public info on his defense that explains the whole Brendan Ryan phenomenon...)
Every defensive metric (that I've seen) shows Ryan as much better than other major league shortstops. That's a daunting standard. Normal human beings cannot play cornerback in the NFL, striker in the Premier League, or shortstop in MLB. Rafael Furcal, when he came up, was referred to 9,000 times as "a waterbug with a cannon." Nowadays that's minimum daily requirement.
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Q. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/24/12
8 Comments
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John Dewan published his Fielding Bible III, and he projects the 2012 Seattle Mariners to be the #2 defense in baseball. I think this article is in front of the pay wall, accessible to everybody.
Not only does he have the M's #2 of 30 teams, but he has them (and the Rays) wayyyyy out in front of the pack, comin' around the rail - the M's projected 32 runs saved are 50% more than the #5 defense in baseball, that being the Angels'.
This stops you short. UZR had them #17 last year, and Dewan also had them solidly mediocre, at +1 run saved defensively. What happened? We'll... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/12
6 Comments
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=== A Wise Man Sayeth, Dept. ===
Some yoyo, by which I mean DaddyO, drolly noticed that my resort computer gave me more than 40 minutes the other night, for three (edited) posts? Nada. That was the Denny's at Rural and Hiway 60 in Phoenix, free Wi-Fi.
That wasn't the hard part; we got that crib on only the fourth stop. The hard part is finding a wife who will sit across the table, chin in hand, dozing lightly, while you blog for two hours on baseball.
All y'all's teenage juvenile delinquent friends will tell you, make sure you get a girl who will go to Project X wit... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/12
2 Comments
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=== White Knuckle Dept. ===
Felix was in the middle of his second big rallied. Cindy axed, um. So what's wrong with him, Dr. D. I dunno, I mumbles, same as Felix hisself did, after the game. Hard to tell from here.
Just then, a right hand batter suffered two strikes, and I told Cindy, OK, he'll want this guy. Check this out. ... curve... BOUNCES. Easy take, count 2-2.
Next three pitches, the guy fouls off, easily. WHAAAaaaaaa? The third one is even smoked down the 3B line, deep. This is Larry Bernandez or what? Next pitch, long double, pounded deep down the LF... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/20/12
4 Comments
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=== Hisashi Iwakuma ===
Made the ballclub today, I would think.
First pitch out of the bullpen, Iwakuma popped the mitt REAL good, sounded from the stands like 90-and-plenty, y'know? His last pitch of inning 2, he humped up, zipped one in there with hair on it, his back foot came way off the ground .... looked like he had all kinds of length on his fastball.
As you know, the SSI take is simply that a 90 mph Iwakuma is a Seattle Mariner Iwakuma. He showed Dr. D all he needed to. We're sure that the corporate offices will be relieved to hear that...
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Posted by jemanji on 03/20/12
13 Comments
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Q. Vinnie done?
A. 'fraid so. It says here that he had to hit .400 to make the club, had to be the very best hitter in camp, and he wasn't. Sigh.
Had the privilege of stalking him from the Reds' stadium today ... he's kinda in-between now, looks befuddled up there. Lots of check swings, lots of half- positions, jumping out of the way of strikes, stuff like that.
My daughter went to phlebotomist school and had a great first day interning - drew 9 of 11 patients first time, on her first day. Came home giddy. I smiled... don't get too high or too low, we thought... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/20/12
9 Comments
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Q. One walk and 9 strikeouts! That makes him a saber sweetie!
A. Haven't seen him pitch. Everybody says he's 86-88 mph with the fastball, but does have a Luke French curve ball. And that he has Luke French's assortment of changes, sliders, and scuffballs. Everybody says he has Luke French's pitchability. I'll guarantee you that he has Luke French's first name. We spend money on research around here.
L. Ron Hubbard invented Dianetics on a bet, *in my opinion* you CIA-spook wannabes googling this, and his "religion" was based on the sales shtick that when you are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/20/12
4 Comments
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OK, got 12 mins this time :- ) ... don't check the photo against the date.
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KYLE SEAGER's home run wind-aided? I suppose Blowers meant, the wind took it to the 18th row, rather than to the 8th. The wind was 5-10 mph, straight across L to R, gusting to 15-20. He got it wayyyyy up high, to right-center, and if Ken Griffey Jr. had been the one swinging the bat, Blowers woulda just been ooooh'ing and aaaah'ing. People just don't think of Seager or Ackley as being able to drive the ball. Yet.
By the way, you'll remember that I ripped Seager's glove at 3B last... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/12
11 Comments
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OK, the resort down here is nice, and there's no internet in the room, which is kind of like going on a spaceship and there's no potable water in the capsule. We're in the office, which reads 35:50 remaining logon time on the stern little clock that obscures about 10% of the monitor. I have zero confidence that this connection is even going to save my work to the Klat server, and less than zero willingness to try to e-mail the text if it doesn't, so... you ever see a chess geek stumbling around in the alley drunk? Here's your chance to find out, as it were.
As thin... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/12
5 Comments
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=== Und Take Zat Mit You, Dept. ===
Ichiro came up with Ackley on first and Wood got into a hitter's count. "Hitting third, Ichiro has to take a cut," he sez. Two pitches later, Ichiro goes 380-390 feet down the line, wayyyyyy over the "dugout" bullpen, way up on the grass. We have to wait for him to start circling the bases before we know it's fair.
One of the young scouts asks one of the older ones, "What's our guy supposed to have?" Shortstop the Elder kinda shrugs. "Nothin'. Savvy."
Travis Wood, a young Cole Hamels wannabe from the Reds. Decent fastball,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/12
5 Comments
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Another day, another crush. M's with 13 hits, the Brewers with 2. Bet those feebs wish they'd made you GM when they had the chance.
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=== Dustin Ackley ===
Three hits and - GASP - three more doubles.
Had you noticed? In nine games and 27 at-bats, Ackley has nine long balls for extra bases. Nine! It's one thing when the grounders are finding holes. It's another thing when you're slugging .852 based on one fence-splash after another.
Which you don't take spring training stats as the gospel, but the three highest SLG's at this time of the day are from Albert Pujols,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/12
1 Comments
Got to the CPX today and ... whaaaaa? I didn't put the movement chart in last night? What a feeb... here y'go amig-O's:
Brooks called that blue pitch a FOUR-seam fastball - on what basis, I don't know. 4-seamers are fast; 2-seamers sail kinda like wiffleballs, more slowly and with more break.
These pitches averaged 93.2 MPH for Erasmo last night, so presumably the pitches were getting classed as 4-seamers because they were all within 1-2 MPH of his very maximum speed on the night.
His velocity is the most consistent I have seen; he threw 29 of 30 fastballs within a tiny 2.2 MPH band... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/12
16 Comments
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Bob Condotta with a very fine postgame quote-fest:
The lowlights were the pitching of relievers George Sherrill and Hong-Chih Kuo, who each gave up three runs to allow the Giants to rally, and an offense that got just six hits total.
Sherrill has historically struggled to get his breaking ball just right in the Arizona air, and that might have been the issue again tonight. He's deemed pretty much a lock to make the team and has had some good outings earlier this spring. (Condotta)
It was a good catch by Jeffy, the fact that Sherrill had two bad Arizonas previously,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/12
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Erasmo has been accused of being a short Doug Fister. Exceptional command, surprising giddyap on his fastball, good mechanics, plus makeup.
Unknown were these factors: (1) whether his command in the zone was really on a par with Fister's and Moyer's, (2) whether he had anything to go with his fastball, (3) how much the "perceived velocity" would affect such a short right hand pitcher.
Dr. D signed off on the mechanics, with gusto. He's got a Maddux-quiet windup - he looks like he's pitching from the stretch at all times. He finishes nose-to-leather and in the minors, he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/12
2 Comments
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=== Fastball ===
I was looking for the Fister-type command, but that wasn't his game at all, at least on this particular night. What he did have was eye-opening velocity.
Brooks said that he threw 29 out of 30 fastballs at a velocity of 92 or higher. The nominal average was 93.1 ... compare Felix' average of 93.3. If Erasmo were to average 93.1 on the season, he'd have about the 15th or 20th hottest fastball in both leagues.
He pitched, early on, more like Michael Pineda than like Doug Fister. He humps up, muscles the fastball, and he throws it high in the zone, where it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/12
7 Comments
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=== Curve Ball ===
Erasmo's curve is his third pitch. For most guys, a curve is a "deuce." For Erasmo, a curve ball is definitely a "trey."
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It has a bit of an unusual shape -- it stays up pretty much, and breaks wayyy in on a LH hitter.
He throws it about 78-80 mph, whereas the change is 80-82, so here's your "snake tongue" effect, two pitches with the same velocity that break in opposite directions. Halladay, Lee, and Haren use this factor to star in the big leagues.
He threw 7 of them, 6 for strikes. He did get one of them hit hard, an 0-2 curve belted deep... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/12
15 Comments
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=== Big Cat, Dept. ===
Vinnie declares victory at 3B. Rather, Wedge declares it for him. Condotta quotes him thusly:
And of Catricala's defense he said: "He's surprised a lot of people at third base. We wanted to give him every opportunity to play third base as much as we could this spring and he's shown himself well.''
Which is exactly what they said about Dustin Ackley playing second base, at this same point.
Ackley's naysayers had that tone to them, the "Come on, don't be silly" tone. The, it's not up for discussion tone. And then Ackley shows up and you're like ...... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/12
9 Comments
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Sandy digs up an annihilating precedent, burrowing farrrrrrr into the nether regions of baseball history to identify the 2011 Tigers:
Detroit:
Avila - 130 games caught
VMart - 26 games caught - 112 DH
Santos - 6 games caught (don't know when he was and was not on the roster, but he played two games in April (19/20) ... then didn't appear again until August 25th. So, most of his games caught were after rosters expanded.
To which Spectator -- about to launch his own blog, a sister site to SSI and MC, if we have anything to say about it -- follows on neatly:
From poking... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/12
5 Comments
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=== Ichiro!'s New Swing! ===
Isn't.
He evidently could not get comfortable with Dustin Ackley's swing, and he has simply reverted to his lifelong way of swinging. His front foot is probably closer to his back foot than it used to be, and he's not hinging his wrists on the backswing.
My son went, "That's kind of lame, that he would try to be able to hit another way, and not be able to." Oh, I dunno. The old swing is a 20-year work of art, precision-honed to generate 400-foot power from a 155-pound man. To just trade it in for another swing is to risk losing the dynamic... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/12
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Q. What exactly is this "innings eater" phrase? Sounds like neither the reader nor the writer understand what they're talking about.
A. In the second game of 2012, in Japan: if you could just spot the A's 4.5 runs and take that, would you? One coin flip, they get either 4 or 5 runs, and then the Mariners bat nine times. Would you take that?
Maybe out of the #5 spot, you would. And for some teams, 180 league-average innings that are simply removed from the pre-season equation, that can be helpful. Many teams have pitching problems to solve, the worst of which are at... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/12
1 Comments
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=== March 13, 2012 ===
We cross-checked Vinnie's defense and, to the general surprise, it clears the bar with ease.
The bat? Earlier we had waxed ecstatic about his aiki-esque quick, compact power. Like a 19-year-old Ken Griffey Jr., Vinnie Catricala does things with a baseball bat that most other major league players are not capable of doing. Such as, in this case, hitting an inside fastball over the center field fence. On a 1-2 count.
How does Vinnie look, in a whole game, as opposed to on the highlight reel? That was the question. The answer: better than he does... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/12
8 Comments
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It has nothing to do with anything, that this looks like Bobby Fischer playing baseball. You gotta believe me.
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Four balls hit into his area, which is one more than average for a 3B in a major league game. About fourteen questions answered, which is about thirteen more than average for a 3B in a major league game.
To wit:
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=== Play 1 ===
A RH hitter chopped a ball off the dirt around home plate. It bounded hard, with topspin, out to 3B, giving Catricala both a short hop and little time to judge the trajectory. This is exactly the play that eats Dr. D alive... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/12
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=== Keep One Point, Dept. ===
In a single game watching Catricala, you can oooooh and aaaaah at the aiki-esque way in which he absorbs the baseball into his one point, his CG, his belly button.
This goes far beyond "using two hands." It is the right way to organize your entire body correctly --- > around the incoming energy. It's the right way to glue your perception to the unpredictable things that the baseball will often do. Using your CG in sports is the right way to glue your mind to the action, and the right way to deliver power to the unpredictable moment. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/12
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If you think it's easy to find an image of a condor stopping on a dime and reversing its direction ... like Robert Asprin said. You allot 50% of your time to writing the book and then 50% of your time writing the little quotes that start each chapter.
Appreciate my efforts or the condor gets it.
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Let's go to the mainframe.
I recently calculated that my iPhone was about 10,000 to 20,000 times more powerful than my 1984 128K Macintosh used to be; and as you know, the SSI Mainframe is about 10,000 to 20,000 times more powerful than an iPhone. The Mick's new swing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/12
12 Comments
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=== Aggressiveness ===
You remember that in 2011, Saunders was forever getting caught in 0-1 and 0-2 counts. For one long stretch, he was 0-2 in 40% of his at-bats, or something.
Pitchers knew that he was "in between," that is, swinging out in front of sliders and swinging way late on fastballs. This comes from confusion and passivity.
Saunders' double was on an 0-0 pitch. There were two men on base, and the pitcher wanted to get ahead in the count, and Saunders was ready for a hittable fastball. He was.
Not only was he ready on 0-0, but he didn't need an 89 mistake out-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/12
5 Comments
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=== Tom Wilhelmsen ===
His mechanics are still chancy. Sometimes he keeps his head pretty well down the centerline until a blink after the release; other times it is already headed over to clubhouse buffet even as he brings his arm forward.
But man, this guy's 12-6 hammer is crazy. He cracked one off on Falu for called strike three, and Falu's chin began trembling right there in the batter's box. Even I wanted to punch Wilhelmsen for doing that. It's just a game, man.
He whooshes that 95-96 fastball right by hitters up in the zone, clocks 96, looks 99. There are times... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/12
2 Comments
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=== Steve Del-a-Bar-the-Doors Dept. ===
Coming off the winter, the question was how much velocity he'd bring back. He's still a cur pup, a year off the junior high blackboards, with an elbow "put together at McClendon's hardware." A couple of hot months are fine as far as they go, but Delebar hasn't presented a stationary target to anybody yet.
Goodie gumdrops: on March 14, Delabar had every blinkin' inch the life on his fastball that he'd showed in 2011. He got four garbage swings in the 6th inning alone, and had several other fastballs fouled back over the 1B dugout by... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/13/12
19 Comments
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=== Methinks Thou Dost Protest Too Much, Dept. ===
If the M's were scoring one run per game, and were 3-9, we'd all be fretting. They're not scoring one run per game.
The performance of any one player, in spring training, is a (sic) "small sample." When the entire ballclub is playing Pinball Wizard, and the dials are spinning and popping in a blur, I'll cosign that as significant.
Today's lineup, 7 more runs against Greinke and Co. In the two (late) innings that I was listening to the Brewer radio feed, as Ackley and Saunders and Co. were whirling around the merry-go-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/13/12
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Q. Would it be feasible for the Mariners to offer these guys contracts ... this year?
A. Well, Bowden called them Rays West. It was the Rays who invented the idea of giving a kid a long-term contract in his first month.
Evan Longoria had his ML callup delayed by 10 games, and he signed a 9-year contract one week later. Matt Moore threw 9 innings in the bigs, and then signed an 8-year deal after those 9 innings.
If you're going to keep this many hot young talents together, you'd better figure something out.
.
Q. What was Matt Moore's deal ... and why would he sign it,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/13/12
7 Comments
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Q. OK, let's say the M's tempt their youngsters with a quick $1M per year. But you say $400K isn't a lavish lifestyle? It would be for me.
A. You'd be surprised. You gross $400k, you take home $250K ... but you've got to secure your future with a good part of it. The kids gotta go to college. You're living on $100, $150 per year or something, and that doesn't put rolls of C-notes in your pocket at the 6-star hotel in Hong Kong.
$1M per year, all spendable, that's different. Now the kid can trick out the Ferrari the way he wants it. You're making $100,000 per month... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/13/12
11 Comments
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If you include Erasmo and Vinnie Catricala. Or Catricala and ... me. Hey, that was the graphic we had. So sue us.
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G-Money does some legwork for us again:
Paxton could arrive the week of April 15th, and we'd get the 7th year of club control. Arb deadline fluctuates, last week of May - to - 1st week of June, normally. May 24th to June 5th is usually a good bookmark, which is why most players come up June 10 or so if a team is worried about it. It's actually done by days (Opening Day til the last day of the regular season, counted by days not games),... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/13/12
3 Comments
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In response to Dr. D's outrage :- ) at the demotion of our best pitchers, G-Money lays out a fascinating analysis. He says that he's calculating a 4-pronged variation, but actually gives six:
Jay-Z doesn't care about winning in 2012.
Jay-Z doesn't believe that any of them are among our 5 best SP's right now.
The org believes that they're so emotionally immature that they could become Tillman or Hochevar.
That the weird schedule de-emphasizes every early-season starter other than Felix and Vargas.
It wouldn't be fair to Millwood, Beavan, etc., not to reward their spring... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/12/12
16 Comments
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=== Hot Buttons ===
As you know, 99.44% of the time it is the case that --- > SSI respects the opinion that differs from its own opinion.
Rarely, it can occur that a dissenting opinion annoys Dr. D. There was an opinion that Tim Lincecum was the most over-hyped prospect in the history of baseball; that opinion irritated Dr. D. It irritated Dr. D for several reasons that we won't muck through now. Baseball is for fun.
There was an opinion, very assertively stated, that Michael Pineda was not going to be capable of pitching in the major leagues, because fastball-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/12/12
7 Comments
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Matty sez,
....are you buying that Kawasaki might be a little bit of a hitter? That seems to be a new source of buzz...I am deeply skeptical due to his lack of demonstrated contact skill in Japan, but would welcome feedback.
To which Bat571 aptly replies:
Kawasaki wasn't a bad hitter in the JPL (avg .295 w/ .721 OPS), but with the tennis/placement swing like Ichiro without any of Ichiro's occasional power (14 HR in 5 years in smaller parks), most felt that MLB pitchers would just knock the bat out of his hands.
Well, it looks like his wrists are pretty strong, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/12/12
13 Comments
Flipped open the MLB.com GameDay to see where the M's were at. The box said 2-1 Rangers, which seemed unlikely. How could the Texas Rangers field a full 9 players capable of taking a lead on this 2012 Mariners squad?
The count was 3-0 on Jesus Montero, and this was the graphic as the page rendered:
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So Nathan came into the strike zone ... whoops, offspeed, and it dipped down out of the zone last moment. Montero took that. Then he laid off a ladder fastball just above the strike zone. Then, 2-0, here came another offspeed pitch into the zone... no, dipped down below it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/12/12
20 Comments
=== It's As Good As Yours, Chump ===
I've got a theory, and it's not even really qualified to be called that. But this ain't a court of law; it's a baseball chat. :- )
Jack Zduriencik was as clear as crystal, all winter long, that we'd get to camp and the Hultzen-Paxton boys would get their shot to show their stuff. Just like Michael Pineda did, last year. Just like Vinnie Catricala is getting, this year.
Then, the Big Three go out and dazzle the world in a 7-1 smackdown of the Arizona Diamondbacks .... and FLLLLLLSHHHH! the big blue swirl down the drain to the minors, next day. What... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/07/12
33 Comments
So the M's website has Catricala's two-run jack on vid. What does the dark room tell us? You be th' judge.
First of all, let's establish the fact that most major league hitters draw the golf club back, before they swing it forward. Here is the initial load on a a home run by Mighty Joe Young:
le you run into one.
BABVA,
Dr D
Posted by jemanji on 03/06/12
24 Comments
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Matt sez,
Not even BAKER is commenting on every game this spring...that's annoying to me...am I seriously the only one around that wants to talk Mariners baseball daily right now? Doc? G? Anyone out there paying attention? :)
Noted, Matty. Tomorrow we'll try to start game posts. Once they begin, these will end after Paxton's win in game six of the World Series.
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=== Loogie, Dept. ===
First up: SSI is already very queasy about Mssrs. Sherrill and Kuo, and our eyes go slideways. Want to know about Mauricio Robles' ability to handle the LOOGY role. Instanter.
Whattaya think... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/06/12
2 Comments
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The Rybka 4 chess computer is now rated higher than Vladimir Kramnik, the world's top player. By three standard deviations.
When Rybka beats him, Kramnik sometimes does not comprehend what the computer was doing, in order to achieve its superior positions. That's a little scary, if you think in terms of Skynet vs. John Connor.
There is a feeling associated with losing to a chess computer when, no matter how hard you try after the game, you can't understand why in the world it played Bishop to c6 - you know only that Bc6 was the best move for some reason or other... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/06/12
2 Comments
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Q. Does Carlos Peguero get credit for 2 homers in 10 AB's? That's like 120 homers per season.
A. He gets no credit at all. We already knew that if Carlos got ahold of a pitch, that somebody in a gray uniform was going to get hurt.
Peguero's swing comes through the zone at like a 45-degree tilt from the catcher's point of view. This leaves him in real trouble on high pitches. At last sight, that being winter ball, Carlos' EYE ratio had not shown the needed transmogrification and here again, in the Cactus League, he's got (as we check GameDay here ...) 3 K's and 0 BB's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/06/12
3 Comments
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Q. Does Seager get credit for going over the CF wall like that?
A. He does, yes.
Let me know the next time Chone Figgins, or Ichiro, hit a home run to center field. Seager's HR comes in the broader context of Dr. Elliot's strength training program, and in the context of the fact that Kyle Seager has a certain amount of projectable power.
BaseballHQ goes with the crowd, stating that Seager "has no projectable power," overlooking their own stats saying that Seager's PX is around 100. Kyle Seager has been labeled, and badly. He looks kind of lame when he's standing next to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/12
18 Comments
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We sent the Blues out against the A's Opening Day lineup, and they never stood a chance. Halfway through the first spring game, the M's have four HR's and counting. These include the two most important ones possible - a Boone-style, off-field shot from Jesus Montero -- while playing the catcher position -- and a two-run GWRBI from Michael Saunders.
Admittedly, the Japan-bound M's have been in camp a lot longer than anybody else, but baseball isn't a sport in which game sharpness matters very much. Let the march of the SoDo Hit Men begin.
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Zum-Bro' sez,... Read More