February 2012

Posted by jemanji on 02/29/12
25 Comments

 .................. === I'm Sure You Haven't Noticed This, But === UZR says that Casper Wells has a career total of +20.0 runs saved (per 150 games) in the outfield.  That's over a good span of 700 innings, 700 being 78 games x 9 innings.   Skip past the trite retort on that, that he probably isn't the best defensive outfielder in baseball.  Sure, that's true.  Move on to the relevant point.  In his first 131 full and partial ML games, Casper Wells has run down a whole bunch of batted balls out there. He's also +33 runs in center field, having made 4 out-of-zone plays in 10 (full) games and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/29/12
4 Comments

 ................... Per Rosenthal. I'm delighted!  My favorite thing about it is that the Wild Card is now worth 50% of a division title, not 98% of a division title. The MLB Wild Card, maybe for the first time in sports, becomes the scrounge position that it is supposed to be.  That, to me, is the most important thing about this decision.  The ratio between the WC and division slots has created beauty and symmetry at the end of the season. Are you aware of any other sport in which a Wild Card has been devalued appropriately?  This 50% proportion is very elegant:  the Wild Card will be a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/29/12
10 Comments

 ................ Baker gives today's lineups as: CF Chone Figgins 2B Dustin Ackley Rf Ichiro 1B Justin Smoak C Jesus Montero 3B Vinnie Catricala LF Trayvon Robinson DH Jesus Sucre SS Carlos Triunfel LHP James Paxton Team 2 SS Brendan Ryan 2B Kyle Seager CF Casper Wells LF Mike Carp 1B John Jaso RF Carlos Peguero DH Luis Jimenez C Adam Moore 3B Francisco Martinez RHP Taijuan Walker Let's see, that's fully six players starting who aren't in my Blues vs Whites varsity-jayvee game.  Therefore the five players left out, in addition to Gutierrez, are:  C Olivo... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/29/12

 .......... BJOL gave us permission to excerpt from the archives, so ... here's a light bulb that is particularly helpful in brightening the understanding of the 2012 Mariners: .......... the Orioles called up a pretty good pitching prospect and will give him the start against the Yankees. Since the Orioles are out of it would it make more sense to call up an older 4A type starter and give him that start against the Yankees and to give the rookie his debut against a weaker hitting lineup with total consideration giving to the CONFIDENCE of a young starter? Also do you agree with the Earl... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/29/12

 .................. Okay, this play's over, where's the next signal from the coach already?! ............ Ticking the list off on your fingers: DUSTIN ACKLEY - James says, 60-90 games to become completely adjusted, just in terms of the clubhouse, daily routine, etc. Ackley's played exactly 90 games.  He's gone home, spent the winter knowing he was the incumbent 2B.  He's going through spring training as one of the established locals at Diamond Lil's. He should be all.  systems.  go.  in April 2012. . KYLE SEAGER, JUSTIN SMOAK - these guys may or may not be actually developed.  The "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/27/12
11 Comments

 .......... Whoop!  Sudden development, as Figgins takes the 6 spot in the intrasquad.   Reminds me of a Robert A. Heinlein novel, where you've got a table for two.  Suddenly, a dark red spot appears on your dinner partner's chest, his head settles into his spaghetti ... the staff hustles the man away by the elbows, and re-sets the table in 30 seconds.  More wine, sir?   Funny the way a homer and a double can get the staff bustling around, isn't it.  Vinnie knocks the fences down at 1 p.m., and a freshly-minted shortstop glove is in Figgy's locker at midnight.  Jack, I love you, man... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/27/12
12 Comments

 .................. So we converse. . Q.  Is this truly feasible? A.  100% feasible for a guy to jump from a AA rampage up to the bigs, but... Book reviewers sometimes take a stack of books, grab the top one, read five pages to get a feel for the prose.  They sample the middle, and turn to the last chapter and see how it ends.  They write it up from there... Let's skip to March 28, shall we?  Let's say that Catricala survives this war.  If Casper is defeated and Montero made catcher and Catricala has a DH slot available, he will still have to taste the bitterness of AAA.  Whether through... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/27/12
4 Comments

 ............... So Baker decides I've traded on his fame and fortune one too many times, such as this time, and posts a Cage Match Call-Out on his website.  To Baker's surprise, Dr. D signs up, and the venue is set:  the Seattle Mariners clubhouse carpet. Baker, pre-match, is perfectly coherent.  He's an athletic young football player, and I'm a 49-year-old out-of-shape blogger, so his plan is --- > to show a little mercy after I've learned my lesson.  Maybe. Dr. D's plan is what it always is, against an unfamiliar sparring partner.  Keep the hands high and extended, "tangle" the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/26/12
9 Comments

 ................. A sense of depth can be very aesthetically satisfying  Geoff Baker with a video of Ackley's two-run shot in the Saturday intrasquad.  Ichiro's necessarily standing on deck, watching Ack! hinge the wrists and send the missile over the RF fence. This is the second time in a row it's happened:  I skim down to the lineups and I go, oh, the Mariners' starting lineup on team 1.  Guess it must be a varsity vs jayvee type game, huh?: Team 1 3B Chone Figgins 2B Dustin Ackley RF Ichiro 1B Justin Smoak C Miguel Olivo CF Casper Wells DH Adam Moore LF Trayvon Robinson... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/25/12
24 Comments

 ................... === Linkage === After the intrasquad game, Jeff Sullivan was witty even by his own standards.  He's the most famousest of all 'net hobbits, and that's sayin' a lot.  In this paragraph he hit for the cycle and turned an unassisted double play: Brendan Ryan hit a home run off Oliver Perez and subsequently didn't run the bases. He just turned around and walked back to the dugout. Every part of this is my favorite. One interpretation is that Ryan doesn't know what a home run is, and so he wasn't sure what to do. Another interpretation is that Ryan wanted Perez to feel as... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/23/12
23 Comments

 .............. Moe sez, What I see is an entirely natural move that hasn't been tweaked/coached/frame-by-framed.  Simple. Simple.  ... with almost no "effort" or strain. I like this way of putting it amigo.  Walker's organization down the center line does seem to come naturally to him, and all his movements are light and easy. We definitely give him credit for that.  And this is where the natural all-sport athleticism absolutely comes into play.  Body control comes easily to guys like Taijuan. ................ In the aikido dojo, these are two different concepts -- the "lightness" and "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/23/12
9 Comments

 ............... Q.  What is the state of Taijuan's mechanics?  Is his basketball career helping him? A.  It is, yes.  Or something is.  Thanks to Baseball Travels, we have a nice video of Taijuan pitching last August, which is to say the last time he pitched. Go check out the vid and two things will jump out at you right away:  (1) He's unusually quiet and compact, few moving parts, very graceful and balanced down the CL.  (2) He doesn't get a very dynamic drive down the CL. Think Greg Maddux.  As you watch the vid over and over again, you'll see that Taijuan is pitching "from the stretch... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/23/12
16 Comments

 .............. Q.  Does it increase Taijuan's All-Star chances that he could win an MLB dunk contest? A.  Taijuan would not win an MLB dunk contest.  He might not finish in the top 20.  Well, not based on the video I saw, at least.   ............. MLB players, well over 50% of them including pitchers, could play basketball and football at a high level.  The same is not true in reverse:  NBA and NFL players can't play baseball.  As fans, we have very little concept of how remarkable the MLB player is, as an all-around athlete. Here is a great June '11 read from Tim Kjurkian.  Take a sec and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/21/12
26 Comments

 ................ Our main man Jeff Sullivan put together a couple of animated .gif's.  Good on yer, Jeffy. . === Wrist Hinge === The first thing to notice?  Imagine that you're looking straight down at home plate from outer space.  Superimpose a clock face onto Ichiro, with the 12 pointed at the pitcher and the 6 pointed at the catcher. With Ichiro's old swing, when he pulled the bat back into his backswing .... the bat head pointed at 2:30 on this clock.  You can see it on the .gif.  It was the one and only part of Ichiro's swing that was not dynamic:  he was a golfer swinging a 6-iron,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/21/12
26 Comments

 ................. IceX, one of our resident NPB hyper-experts, notes What if this isn't about Figgins batting first, but Ichiro batting third. Ichiro has bigtime RISP and Runners On numbers and his prowess is well known throughout the league. Now, few really believe Ichiro is totally done, but by shoving the entire context on Figgins, batting Ichiro third gives you two things... Everyone's looking at Figgins and Ichiro gets to quietly become the extra OBP motor with Ackley infront of Montero and Smoak. The other thing is, Ichiro is probably going to get better pitches to look at with... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/21/12
2 Comments

 ............. We wondered whether Ichiro had his big years, in those seasons in which the #9 Mariner hitter was competent. You'll never find a simpler study than this one:  without peeking, that is before looking at the splits, we put a tick mark beside Ichiro's four glory years.  Those were : 2001, the MVP ... 2004, the .372 season, when he broke the hits record ... 2007, when hit .351 with power and walks and finished #8 in the MVP ... 2009, batting .352 with a whopping .465 SLG, getting the #9 in the MVP ... whoops gotta add 2002, since he had a 120 OPS+ and by far his best EYE ratio.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/21/12
8 Comments

 ...........   Moe, with considerable justification, gives the PFFFT raspberry to Dr. D :- ) All the same, I'm not bothered by the idea that the M's couldn't possible score runs, even with a horrible/hacking Figgins leading off.  I am bothered by the  idea that Wedge seems to have simply annointed Figgins as his 3B/probable lead-off hitter before seeing him swing a bat against a live pitcher....and before watching Seager or Liddi do the same. Well, if the goal were to evaluate unknown hitters and to select the most productive one going forward, that's what you might do:  hold a tryout... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/21/12
10 Comments

  .......... though we're not brimming with confidence that the idea will hold up. . === Consider the Source, Dept. === The best objective source on Figgins, that is to say one not from Seattle, is over at BaseballHQ and their expectation is: COMPONENT SKILL 2012 bounceback 2011 train wreck AVG 250 188 OBP 325 243 SLG 310 243 BABIP .300 .220 EYE 0.67 0.50 PX 50 42 SX 100 100 RC/27 3.6 1.7 And Ron sez,  "Hip injury caused him to miss final two months, but things were bad long before then.  To hit this poorly, you have to be both bad (see dreadful PX, bad expected AVG of .238) and unlucky (... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/21/12
4 Comments

 C'mon, there are lots of people can't hit like me and Edgar .............. Let DaddyO go first: We can't afford a real 3B, but we can afford to risk blowing off April/May 2012 and start-of-the-season momentum if Figgins hits .250 / .310 in spring training, just enough to sustain life support on hope that we can get value out of him. Yeah, let's dive underwater in the middle of the Atlantic, try and seal the leaky hull with Carlos Guillen and George Sherrill and Kevin Millwood and everybody for a 2012 sailing into the playoffs ... maybe push Paxton and/or Hultzen in there, Carp in LF,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/18/12
3 Comments

 ............ The vampiric Wizard of Os entered the 2001 rotation on June 2, and sucked 4.4 WAR worth of blood in four months ............ SSI is eating this spring training noise alive.  From Carl Willis on the 16th: "Last year at this time, Michael Pineda had never thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues," said pitching coach Carl Willis. "You can say the same for a Paxton or a Hultzen. Pineda did have 8-10 starts at Triple-A, so there was a little more there than these guys have done yet. But that's not to say that has to be a determining factor. "If they come out here and show people the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/16/12
4 Comments

 .............. We've been asked to lead many funerals.  One of the most important questions you ponder, as you're getting your material together, is "Did this person lead the life that they wanted to lead?"   The greatest example of this in my experience was my wife's father.  He was a roughneck in school, joined the Navy, saw the world, went to college, became an engineer for Boeing, took care of his money, parceled it out patriarchally, tolerated no disobedience or even disagreement, had the respect if not the extreme love of his family, owned nice cars and motorcycles, vacationed to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/16/12
1 Comments

 ................  Sandy brings up a case-in-point that is news to me: My fav eye surgery success story would be David Dellucci who had the surgery in November of 2004.  His career line up to that point was: .261/.339/.418 (.757) Then at age 31 and 32, he posted these lines: .251/.367/.513 (.879) .292/.369/.530 (.899) He then reverted back to career norm and retired shortly thereafter.  Was is causal?  Impossible to tell.  Too many variables in play.  But it's intriguing.  How much is better vision and how much is increased confidence?  A compelling example, especially in the SLG lines.  ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/16/12
1 Comments

 ................ This was one of two HR's he hit that day, but what is Teddy doing standing where he is?  After his career, he preached constantly about not giving six inches to the pitcher that you didn't have to... ........ === Hardest Act in Sports === It's a whole other conversation, but Bill James has made a convincing argument that baseball players are the most freakishly-gifted athletes there are... If you sit and ponder just how hard it is to hit baseballs thrown by an MLB pitcher, you'll probably agree, and James isn't talking about batting only.  But the point is, in order to hit... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/15/12
1 Comments

............... Short people got ... noooooo reason .... :: randy newman :: . Q.  Does SSI grok Erasmo Ramirez as comparable to Doug Fister? A.  Possibly.  They seem to share the traits of truly elite command within the strike zone.  Beyond that, we'll see if Erasmo has the supplemental weapons that separate him from the pack. There are any number of right hand pitchers who walk 1 batter per game in the minors.  What Doug Fister did that made him different was this: His 1 BB rates were based on wondrous location -- based on superlative mechanics for a tall guy -- and not on over-challenging... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/15/12
3 Comments

 .................... Q.  Throwing across his body is a good thing? A.  Like throwing a knuckleball, it is a big help if you can actually do it.  Also like throwing a knuckleball, you can't actually do it.  Well, a few guys can. The negatives to this are supposedly: It costs you accuracy, especially armside of the plate (agreed for many pitchers - Dr D) It can lead to injury (only agree if hips don't clear well - Dr D) It can cause the arm to drop, leaving the fingers below the ball, causing "sail" and lack of movement (sometimes - Dr D) Erasmo comes crossfire but suffers none of the ill... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/15/12
3 Comments

 .............. Q.  Who or what is a Lance Painter? A.  Great, great article right here.  The M's pitching coach at AA, Painter, watched Erasmo give up 11 runs in a start.  He grabbed Erasmo by the scruff of the neck, took him to the bullpen, and FORCED him to throw non-strikes.  You remember Michael Pineda on March 16 last year, opening the game with 22 consecutive strikes? We once had the privilege of picking Lindy McDaniel's brain on pitching, and this was his entire philosophy of pitching, "Go into the plate, and then go OFF the plate."  You remember Maddux and Glavine winning 300 games... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/15/12
12 Comments

 ............... So it turns out that Trayvon couldn't see that picture of Ken Griffey Jr. hanging behind the manager... "Take Junior there."  :: jerks thumb back over shoulder ::  "He had to work through some things too... um, well, ::shrug::  actually he didn't.  But you do." Another engaging ST article, Geoffy. . Q.  Could the new glasses matter, like, enough to change his stats? A.  Am sure that as soon as we go into this, an SSI reader will surface who is a national-class eye surgeon, but we'll carry on until he speaks up :- ) For those who don't wear contact lenses, start by... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/13/12
5 Comments

 .......... Larry Bird was asked by a reporter, before his first game coaching ... "Do you think it will be frustrating, coaching players who are less talented than you were?"   To which Larry snapped, "All my life I played with guys less talented than me."  HEH! And that was the key difference between Bird and Magic as NBA coaches:  Bird didn't expect other players to do what he did.  Not one time in Bird's coaching career did I ever hear him gripe about how one of his players failed to do something in the way that Bird would have done it.   Magic did this on a nightly basis.  In... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/12/12
7 Comments

 .............. There were 58 starting pitchers in the AL and NL who averaged 90.0 MPH or more on their fastballs last year.  Of these, 12 threw with their left hands: SP MPH 2011 ERA+ David Price 94.8 107 (and 144 in 2010) Derek Holland 94.2 113 C.C. Sabathia 93.8 147 Clayton Kershaw 93.4 163 Matt Harrison 92.8 131 Jon Lester  92.8 122 (worst year of his life) Gio Gonzalez 92.5 130 Ricky Romero 92.1 146 Cole Hamels 91.7 138 John Danks 91.6 97 (and 111 lifetime) Cliff Lee 91.5 161 C.J. Wilson 91.0 152 That's every left hand starter who threw 90.0 or above.   Oh, I know whatcher thinkin'.  ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/12/12
18 Comments

 ................. I know, I know, that's kind of a sad picture for so early in the morning.  They aren't actual birds, we assure you.  It's a wax mockup going into Safeco to commemorate the 2010-11 Mariners' attempts to bat against Jered Weaver. . === Duece Hultzen ===   Seriously, do ALL lefties with (1) good fastballs and (2) even halfway polished games, (3) do well?  Or is it just 90% of them?  Or 70%?  Or what?   Now I'm sitting here trying to think of LHP's who threw 90+, and could get ahead in the count, and who had an offspeed pitch, who wasn't above average.  Certainly there was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/12/12
3 Comments

 ........... === Hit 'im With So Many Lefts He Begs for a Right, Dept. === Followup question:  how did the above 12 pitchers do in their first seasons?  Were Jon Lester, and Cole Hamels, and Ricky Romero, effective in their rookie seasons? You can find hard-throwing LHP's who are not effective, and it's because they have terrible mechanics and they're wild.  Wild in putting guys on base and then wild in centering fastballs.  But you get a lefty throwing a real quick fastball, and he's got a good K/BB ratio ... well, he's got some hard blinkin' work ahead if he wants to get his ERA+ under... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/12/12

 ........... Dr. D fearlessly gives the ball to K-Pax, just as soon as the M's get stateside off their A's series.  Many remain unconvinced.  In the chat thread, we get this very good question: Isn't the issue with Paxton innings? He only logged 95 IP last year. The M's are very cautious with young arms. I can't see them pushing Paxton over 130 IP or so this year. I guess they could do that in an M's uni and just shut him down in July or something but I don't see it happening. A dumb question - be the first to collect the whole set.  Can somebody link me to the evidence that demonstrates... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/12/12
11 Comments

 ............ === And It Netted Them a Cleanup Hitter for Their Efforts === ... I think the Mariners handled the 2011 Michael Pineda perfectly:  they let him pitch, pulled him at 100 pitches, and the moment he started showing signs of slowing down, they shut him down.  Notice on this graph that Pineda had exactly one (1) game in which his average fastball MPH dropped off alarmingly, and he did not throw the second game after that. . === Which Half? === There is an assumption that you should save a Pineda or Paxton for the second half of the season, but:   1.  In 2011, and probably in 2012,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/11/12

 ............ === One-Page Resume, Dept. === To Dr. D's constant amuzement, or amasement, the Virtual Hit It Here Cafe around Seattle has ruled out a James Paxton parachute drop into Safeco.  However, Jay-Z knows his way around an unfriendly projectile launcher, and isn't afraid to deploy one to his neighbors' unpleasant surprise. ............ Authorit-y X-llent Blogs:  Paxton's a minor leaguer in every sense of the word.  He might be ready in August.  We'll see.  20 minors starts, he's got. Authorit-ative Website:  ... which is the same as Verlander, Lincecum and Weaver, right? AX:  ...... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/11/12
4 Comments

 ............ === Git Yer Programs, Only Eight Bucks === The official Mariners' pre-camp rotation handicap, going off this report and other MLB-approved buzzlines this winter: 1 Felix 2 Vargas 3 Iwakuma 5a Noesi 5a Millwood 5a Beavan 5b Furbush 5c Hultzen 5c Paxton 5c Ramirez In any organization, there are good reasons for listing the depth chart with the kids at back.  In Jack Zduriencik's organization, there are eight times as many good reasons.  The man never met a pink backpack he didn't like.  Oh well, whatever, nevermind...  . === Don't Flash Your Stud Card, Dude === Carl Willis sez... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/11/12
22 Comments

 .......... 1 Felix.   Fun fact of the day for yer.  At the -62 runs per year Felix has established for himself, he could team with two 1.5 WAR starters and exceed the 2011 WAR of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, the three best SP's of the 2011 Boston Red Sox. Felix + 1.5 WAR + 1.5 WAR    >     Boston's Big Three.   ::: MUFASA!! :::   ::: shudder ::: ... >:-}  Hey, say it again! ::: muuuufasssa! ::: ::: oooo-hhoooo-hoooo :::  >:-}  ........ 2 Vargas.  He's one of the top 5 finesse LHP's in MLB, and the park goes with him like itchy and scratchy.  ... that said:  the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/09/12

 .............. G-Moneyball sez, With his weak chin and baby-soft skin, Vargas is one of those guys that old-time scouts would decry as having "bad face."  He looks entirely unthreatening.  "Bad face" is what Vargas would get, "Bad body" is what Boomer would get. Bad body didn't stop Boomer from having a 240 win career.  I think Vargas and his weak chin are gonna be around a while too.  He seems to just be hitting his stride. ~G Just saw that "baseball face" thing a month ago, and now can't remember where... If there were a Bleacher Report slideshow on 10 most unlikely baseball faces,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/09/12
4 Comments

 .......... Chone Figgins:  sorry, boys, but you aren't going to be able to do a Psych Department Face Analysis without sorting them into three categories.  Even the most PC college will acknowledge these categories, after decrying societal bias, of course. If Chone were cast in a movie, it would be a Chris Tucker kind of role, wouldn't it?  Guess Jay-Z shoulda taken that into consideration when paying him $45M. Just kidding.  Man, settle down, can'cha. px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/09/12
10 Comments

 ............... Felix Hernandez?  Like the scout says, pitchers aren't baseball players.  The principle must not apply to pitchers.  He looks great when he lets the ball go, however...  Funny thing, it happens for him when his hair is longer, though.  And I ain't a long-hair kinda guy. I'm sure that the picture above is one reason that I've never bought into Felix Hernandez as the spiritual Mariners descendant of Randy Johnson.  Unfortunately, I can't rewire the primal part of my brain. Here is the one serious paragraph, lost in the barren wasteland of this 3-part series:  the best things... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/08/12
9 Comments

 .............. Q.  Thumbs up or thumbs down? A.  Nothing to see here.  Move on.  The quicker he's out of the org, the happier I'll be. At this point it's a semi-serious question, like did Doug Fister lead the league in garlic and onions?  Two months later, nothing much having happened, Furbush and Ruffin are NOT even BACK of the bullpen? I got Malcontent's Q-and-A right here:  you couldn't trade Doug Fister and get BACK of the bullpen relievers? . Q.  How can such a nice guy write such a dastardly thing?  Suppose Shawn Camp saw that? A.  He'd still be richer and better-looking than me, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/08/12
9 Comments

 ............... ... Not to be confused with Bedtime for Bonzo. In August 2010, James posted this provocative analysis of Brandon Webb's career, $3 subscription required, though we have permission for archive excerpts...   BIll your thoughts on Brandon Webb. Yes he did have a short career but he did dominate to an extent. You can't hold a guy at fault for an injury unless he did something stupid to cause it. If he never throws another pitch again do you think he deserves some sort of recognition/respect from the HOF/MLB? Not saying he deserves his name on a plaque in Cooperstown but the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/08/12
5 Comments

 ............ Last season, we did a series on pitcher Batted Ball MPH.  We finished with a look at which M's pitchers gained, and which lost, in view of the new insights.  Some guys saw their stock go up.  Some not. Extreme flamethrowing tends to limit MPH off the bat.  So does command, if it is extreeeeeeeme command; we're not talking simple Blake Beavan command here, but Doug Fister command.  Also extreeeeeme change-speed skill, like Vargas'. M's winners were Paxton, Hultzen, and Taijuan, even more valuable after the MPH discoveries than they were before.  So were Felix and, siigggghhhh,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/08/12

 ............. In 2011, Jason Vargas was the most inconsistent starting pitcher in the American League ... or in the National League, for that matter.  Going back to 2007, for that matter.  According to Bill James, if that matters.  And since we're slam-dancing to his power riff, here's my bi-weekly shill for the piddling $3 per month it costs you to grok baseball's sixty-something Socrates. Other starters who were wildly up and down:  Trevor Cahill, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Colby Lewis and Nick Blackburn. . === The Most Dependable === Doug Fister was the #4 most reliable starter in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/04/12
5 Comments

 ............ Q.  What is Kuo's early background? A.  Kuo was born in Taiwan and raised there until about age 17, I believe, and was signed by the Dodgers because he was a left hand pitcher who threw gassssss.  Kuo and Chien-Ming Wang are the two significant Chinese players (pitchers) in MLB. Anyway, if Kuo saved 30 games I'd probably try to hack the statistics onto the PRC internet, even under pain of assassination attempts. . Q.  Can he pitch? A.  When his arm is frisky and the moon is full, you could argue this man for best reliever in either hemisphere.  Seriously. This video will give... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/03/12
20 Comments

 ............... Seen at Bill James Online, in the "Hey Bill" section:   I always thought that perhaps Weaver's system worked, but not necessarily for the reason people thought it worked.   Weaver collected outfielders, first basemen and DH types, occasionally catchers and third basemen, with severe limitations but identifiable strengths. . .left-handed .320 hitters who couldn't run, right-handed power hitters who couldn't throw, short switch-hitters who walked every day but struck out twice.  He rotated these players based on matchups, true, but he might have been equally successful if he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/03/12
3 Comments

 ................... This is an opinion piece.  If you'd rather read something other than a discussion of drug and alcohol abuse, you might be interested in our four-part series on Hector Noesi. 's awright?  's awright. . Q.  Do you figure that Josh Hamilton's situation is more dire, or less dire, than we would guess at first glance? A.  Well, here's one thing about it.  In the PC world, if we don't like something, we go into zero-tolerance mode.  We don't like littering, so throwing a napkin out of your car window is not far removed, on the media-lynching felony scale, from assault with a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/03/12
2 Comments

 .............. Q.  You would suspect he's been drinking all along? A.  Off and on.  That's something thing any counselor would do, try to get a feel for how often he's been sneaking that drink-or-eight, and the default assumption would be "very, very often."  Look, we're not trying to hang Josh Hamilton here.  He is under incomprehensible pressure and scrutiny, and if he goes home and finds problems there ... well, religion or no religion, the guy is probably just very unhappy.  Simple as that:  he's not enjoying life. He goes up to his room and has five drinks out of the minibar, and the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/03/12
5 Comments

 ............. You can find the first two articles in this series -- "Pivot Point" and "Syndromes" -- in the left sidebar.  Thanks!, Jeff . Q.  What is your guess as to the future for the Rangers? A.  Honestly would be very concerned about their clubhouse.  The combination of Texas Rangers + Josh Hamilton, going forward, would be a big question in my mind.  Often it's much easier to get a fresh start, new city, new people, and lose the baggage after something like this.  Would want a professional's opinion as to how supportive the Rangers would be about this, and there are three... Read More