July 2011
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/11
7 Comments
Q. What is the basis for comparing these two players?
A. Rat cheer is the starting point for the saber comp: Trayvon's K's, Age-Arc, and ML Prototype.
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Q. Is Curtis Granderson the realistic comp here?
A. Granderson's the UP scenario, naturally ... you wouldn't say "comp." You'd say "prototype."
Rod Carew's a comp for Ichiro. Tom Seaver's a comp for Felix Hernandez. George Brett's a prototype for Dustin Ackley.
UP - Curtis Granderson
MID - Preston Wilson, Mike Cameron class (100-110 OPS+ in CF)
LO - Fringe ML or out of baseball
Look, gentlemen. Trayvon Robinson is not some... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/11
3 Comments
Q. What do Trayvon and Granderson have in common?
A. First of all, the profile, the K/BB, the gap power, the age-arc, etc ... see this article.
Curtis Granderson tackled AAA at age 24 ... in 111 games he had a 48:129 EYE, had excellent gap power. ...
Trayvon's K's and BB's were both a bit higher, but the EYE (the ratio of BB's to K's) is exactly the same and Trayvon was pushed a little faster.
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Q. Do they swing the same?
A. They swing exactly the same, yes.
In this gorgeous video, watch Trayvon prep the swing in Nick Franklin style:
Lead foot goes six inches forward
Weight sinks... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/11
Q. How similar is their PWR?
A. Both have plus PWR, and both have the same kind of developing PWR.
Before the year, HQ gave Trayvon 4 **** for PWR, despite 2 and 9 homers the last two stops. The HR spike was prophesied by them. Make no mistake - you're talking 20-25 homers, tons of doubles and triples, and all around game that pushes the RC/27 (or EqA, wOBA, if you prefer) up into the 6's.
Granderson hit 'only' 19 homers as a rookie, but had an RC/27 way up there at 6.0 because of doubles, triples, BB's, and SB's. These types of players gain you bases every which way.
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If you've... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/11
Q. Anything else? How about upside?
A. The really exciting thing here...
The pure-LH Granderson advanced to "MVP candidate" after he overcame his problemos against LHP's. He used to hit like .218 with a woeful EYE against lefty pitchers. It suppressed his overall numbers.
Look at Granderson in 2007:
.337/.393/.621 - vs RHP
.160/.225/.269 - vs LHP
And it's easy to see this kind of batter, with pitch recog an issue, having huge problems LH-on-LH. If Trayvon Robinson had to deal with Erik Bedard from the left side.... yowch!
But Trayvon hits switch, so ... he's SLG'ing over .500... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/11
17 Comments
Q. To what extent do Trayvon's strikeouts dominate his "profile"?
A. The swings and misses are an indispensible part of his profile. Going back through minors history, to find players who are like Trayvon Robinson, you would need this:
League-leading, or nearly so, K rates in AA/AAA
EYE about 0.4 ... not a good EYE at 0.65, but also not a bad EYE in the 0.20's
Excellent gap power, NOT light-tower power in McPherson, Pickering style
Left hand hitting
Clean, compact swing... good BABIP ... K's caused by pitch recog, not by a long swing
Special talent -- in AA/AAA at a young age
Fair... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/11
28 Comments
... and he shall be a good man...
***
Those who wanted to see a high-profile, super-saber, scout-swoon'ing bat won't have anything to complain about with Tray-vonnn.
Coming into 2011, before the big bust-out, Baseball HQ had Trayvon at #2 in the Dodgers org, #7 among all outfielders in baseball, top 50 among all minor leaguers, position and pitching ... well ahead of Josh Reddick, for example. It was only after the top-50 ranking, that Tray-vonn showed the expected power bust-out and is on pace for 40 jacks this year, pro-rated to 155 games, age 23 in AAA.
Homers, walks, OBP, stolen... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/11
18 Comments
Here's an interesting Tigers video in which their VP of scouting comps Ruffin to Huston Street. You can see the physical similarities, though the slider and the K/BB profile seems to separate the two pitchers a bit.
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=== Arsenal ===
Ruffin's K pitch is a wipeout slider, practically Jeff Nelson class, as you can see from the vid.
His bread-and-butter pitch is a 91-94 fastball with, according to the Tigers' VP, outstanding sink.
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Ruffin also mirrors Street as far as the mechanics: short guy, RH, leg kick, hides the ball, comes sidearm, very aggressive demeanor.
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=== Sabermetrics... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/11
3 Comments
=== Slaves To Our Principles ===
We notice, in a quick surf around the Seattle blog-o-sphere, a lot of folks who are virtually writing Wells off because he's now 26 years old.
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In the 1970's and early 1980's, Bill James argued that if you had a hundred 23-year-old hitters and a hundred 25-year-old hitters, both hitting the same way in AAA baseball ... that the 23-year-olds, as a group, would have twice as many hits in their careers as the 25-year-olds would. (That is almost word-for-word the argument that he put in one of his Abstracts.)
Baseball scouts hated James' guts for saying... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/11
4 Comments
Q. Compared to a "basic" major league swing, what are the points-of-difference with Casper Wells?
A. The points of difference are that he has a quieter path to and through the ball, dead-lake calm, and that he uses brute strength to generate sting despite.
Think of a PGA pro, using a 3-iron off the tee, drawing his club back only knee-high. ... He would gain tremendous precision, accuracy, and consistency, but his power would be unacceptable.
Now, what if a guy were so strong that he could afford to do that and still hit the ball an average distance compared to other PGA pro's?
That's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/11
1 Comments
Q. When's the last time you saw a guy with Casper Wells' profile (dubious EYE, medium PWR, spotty minors performance) do well in the Safeco?
A. Valid question. It's also my question. I would hope that the M's saber crew did their homework here.
Let's address the question with nuance.
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Q. If you overlay Wells' fly balls and homers onto a Safeco grid, how do they come out? Does Wells have marginal power?
A. As far as I can tell, his eight ML homers (home and road) would have all gone out of Safeco, easily. See this chart and this chart.
Wells' average HR distance this season has... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/11
9 Comments
=== The "Big Idea" ===
It says here that --- > the Mariners view Wells as their 4th quality position player. The RH Casper Wells hitting 3-4-5-6 with LH Ackley, LH* Smoak and LH Carp.
They expect Wells to provide either (1) the 100+ center field bat that Denard Span would have brought, or else (2) an immediate 115+ OPS bat in left field. Mike Carp becomes the DH if Wells is not in center field.
Blake Beavan and Charlie Furbush provide Fister replacement for this year, while Paxton and the others in the Big Four pile into the stadium shortly. Therefore the Mariners lose relatively... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/11
7 Comments
Zduriencik (and/or his writers) crafted the statement carefully:
"We felt that today's deal provided us the opportunity to acquire several players that are at or near the Major League ready and we could control for five to six years, all of whom have upside potential,'' GM Jack Zduriencik said in a release.
"We believe it improves the construction of our Major League roster by adding a right-handed bat and a left-handed arm immediately.
And thanks to the young arms we have in our system, we believe that we were able to add talent to our organization while dealing from an area of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/11
8 Comments
Fangraphs has "certified" the collective intelligence of fans, to a certain extent, by including fan defensive ratings on their player cards.
I approve of this. I don't think that fans are infallible, but I do take collective intelligence seriously. Baseball-fan CI is a very crude form of it :- ) but it's one source of data to exploit, and one that comes from a welcome-ly different paradigm.
Roto champ Justynius has a "secret weapon" during trade season ... he scrambles over to the hometown fans' boards and absorbs everything they have to say about the players they watch every day... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/29/11
22 Comments
Probably subconsciously not wanting to be traded. /half joking
I wouldn't be completely shocked if, in his 2021 book, he chuckled about consciously missing on half-a-dozen of the pitches. :- ) Much more egregious things have happened in sports, starting with teammates giving hitters the pitches...
Anyway. Proceeding from the assumption that Erikkk just had a poor game, nothing more insidious than that:
***
Do ... WE ... now think less of Erik Bedard overall? ... no, so why would scouts? Scouts and GM's aren't P-I Forum posters.
The postgame reports will read, "WAS NOT SHARP AFTER... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/11
1 Comments
POINT: Jason Vargas has had 2.5 consecutive blehhh starts.
We fans conclude that Vargas isn't good any more.
We therefore conclude that he won't be worth much if traded, since bad pitchers aren't traded for much.
COUNTERPOINT: Before the 2.5 blehhh starts, Vargas had 18 great ones. As a group, that is, his previous 18 starts were smmmooooookin'.
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POINT: Vargas seemed to tire in 2010, and may be tiring again now.
COUNTERPOINT: While possible, I (and baseball scouts) are also aware that in his previous 7 starts, Vargas pitched into the 8th, 9th, and clubhouse innings every time... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/11
16 Comments
POINT: My man Geoff Baker opines that Jack Zduriencik absolutely has to deal Erik Bedard. A great read.
COUNTERPOINT 1: If Erik Bedard plans to re-sign with Seattle at a huge discount -- and 2011, this is a huge discount! -- then I disagree.
Bedard is the guy you want in the playoffs, if you're going to actually compete for the 2012 pennant, and they are. If he's a 50c on the dollar Game 7 pitcher, he may be the very pitcher you have to keep, including Doug Fister.
There is no free agent on the market this winter who will give as much bang for the buck as Erikkk will, if he's giving... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/11
36 Comments
TOR, Top-of-the-Rotation Starter, means #1-2-3 starter to me. Staff ace or co-ace, potential 15-game winner on a good team.
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June 2011: the cyber-consensus is that Doug Fister might be worth a B, B+ prospect if the M's decided to deal him. Don't get too excited, says the Bottom Line on Seattle Cyber-Center. This is a Safeco pitcher, a guy who would hit the windshield in another park. Not a guy who brings back premium names.
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July 3, 2011: SSI opines that Doug Fister is a WAR/$ Tyrannosaurus.
Consensus seems to be that Fister wouldn't be worth much in trade, because the guess is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/11
=== INPUT ===
Beltran is a known "+1.5 WAR" quantity: it's known that (1) he will walk at the end of 2011, so you got 60 games of him ... (2) he's a 300/400/500 cleanup hitter who is playing great right now; he's also a star who bats switch and plays corner OF decently ... (3) he projects to +1.5 or +2.0 wins above replacement (WAR), depending on how you compare him to existing Giants outfielders.
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This move was about winning in the playoffs. The Giants were already headed to the playoffs -- 75% per CoolStandings, higher than that per Bill James' "Baseball history is woven with the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/11
6 Comments
=== OUTPUT ===
Had the Mariners been in the battle, would you have swapped Taijuan Walker for two months' worth of a 300/400/500 batter?
For those fans who enjoy learning about baseball, this is a show-stopping cognitive dissonance. It's the Monolith appearing amongst the monkeys, an event far beyond our comprehension. And it is exactly those occasions that give us the opportunity to learn.
***
At Fangraphs, what they do there is --- > figure out ways for teams to pile up club control of resources.
This talent pyramid, at Fangraphs, is calculated irrespective of individual seasons. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/11
7 Comments
Thanks Spec... now, that one lights UP the mainframe's alert lights...
If the Red Sox thought Reddick were really a .600 SLG'er, he would not be available (and who says he is, anyway) ... you can bet your login ID on that, my friend...
But even adjusting for where Reddick is going, after he's "solved," here is a young player who greatly interests the mainframe ... especially in Safeco ...
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=== My Kinda Ballplayer, Dept. ===
A fascinating subplot here, is that Josh Reddick is reportedly in a mini-war with the Red Sox over their desire to see him take more BB's ... Reddick takes the Eric... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/11
8 Comments
Q. Does the mainframe like Wily Mo?
A. One of the most fun players ever. We LIKE like him. Not baseball like him.
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Q. What's the deal-io?
A. Some guys just get overexposed. /stops article
Dee Dee Ramone carried his bass way cool, but about the fifth concert, people got tired of his (and my) eighth notes...
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Q. Is that it?
A. Sigggghhhhhh.... career EYE: 150 strikeouts and 30 walks per full season. Those aren't roundoffs.
At least he's making progress: this year with the D-Backs, he's at a perfect 19:0. To put it another way, CC Sabathia's game the other day was against 9... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/11
1 Comments
Q. Can the mainframe explain this one simply?
A. You wish, compadre. All I know is, if Albert Einstein scoffed at quantum mechanics, I can sure as shootin' scoff at Colby Rasmus.
Just a quick take, no numbers, plenty of blearies in the eyes, 'fore I get to bed and so you have something for your coffee. As y'know, we live to serve.
So be gentle, LOL. How good Zach Stewart is, how good even Colby Rasmus is, there's 89 kinds of debate available. 'ave at them.
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Q. What would the Mariners have given up, to get Rasmus?
A. The M's woulda had to cough up (1) Erik Bedard, Brandon League... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/11
1 Comments
Q. Who in the M's org is comparable to Zach Stewart? How good is Stewart?
A. Stewart is very well thought of around baseball -- #4 in Sickels' pre-season Toronto article, for example. Add to that, he'd be thought of higher if not for the dreaded Two Pitch Label. So Dr. D likes Stewart better than baseball does.
Still, take Baseball HQ for instance: they had Michael Pineda and Taijuan Walker wayyyyyy ahead of Stewart before this season.
Pineda, Walker, and Paxson just can't be discussed in the same conversation with Stewart; Blake Beavan is closer to Stewart from below him, than... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/11
Q. Where is SSI on Colby Rasmus these days?
A. In my view, the important feature of the chess position here is that ... how shall we put it, in technical terms ... Colby Rasmus has gone Jim Carrey Number 23 Bat-Crazy on us.
In 2009, he had a whale of a shot at a Hall of Fame type career -- center field, lefty, 275/360/500 already at age 22. Beautiful. The new Grady Sizemore, without the south o' the border black bag in the trunk of the Maserati.
Hey, those of you who have been Rasmus fans -- you weren't wrong. At age 22, and even the first few months of last year when he was 23, this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/11
12 Comments
Q. Leaving us where?
A. Hey, let's say you believe in Colby Rasmus, and think you can get him back onto a Grady Sizemore track before too long.
You're still giving up -- in talent wattage -- Erik Bedard, Brandon League, David Pauley, and change to get there. You going to do that?
It could work out well provided that Rasmus gets back on track and gives you a near-Smoak bat from CF, for a couple of years.
***
But in my view, Capt Jack wisely stepped around a chance to pay top dollar for Rasmus' best-case scenario.
Supposing that a guy has a 20% chance to star, a 60% chance to be... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/25/11
5 Comments
Between the reactions to Geoff Baker's warm, sincere column and those to Mr. Cameron's own article at USS Mariner, we saw an immediate outpouring of 300+ comments wishing him well. I add my prayers to those, of course.
For an individual to receive such sincere well-wishing, respect, affection, and love, must be quite a blessing, and quite a help in the challenges set before him.
Another thing that seems helpful, to me, is for the individual to be treated normally - in my opinion, it shows a profound respect to continue to treat the person as the same person they've always been. After... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/11
20 Comments
As Bill James put it, age-arc projection for batters is basically a simple thing. Past age 30, they are skiing down a slope towards replacement level, and how long it takes them is merely a function of how high up the slope they are when they start.
Fielder's age-arc projection is more complicated than for most hitters, in my view:
He'll only be 28 (!) at the start of his contract -- won't turn 28 until next May.
His top eight B-Ref comps averaged 10 years of cleanup hitting from here.
Out-of-shape hitters DO seem to age quicker: Luzinski, Dunn, Hrbek, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Boog Powell... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/11
5 Comments
=== Franklin Morales vs Dustin Ackley, 8th Inning, July 22 2011 ===
I don't know what has happened with Franklin Morales, and don't much care. You can go POTD him off the videos and stats if you want.
All I know is that on July 22, he was Arthur Rhodes 2001, and if somebody cares to explain why, that's great. I figured, just another great "get" by Bill James and Co.
Anyway, he threw two LH 94 mph fastballs to Dustin Ackley and my man Mike Blowers was stunned in the booth. "I don't remember him throwing this hard the last time around..."
Morales whizzed another 94 fastball right down... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/11
4 Comments
...................
Q. What was the toolbox in his return game against the Sox?
A. As depicted. Two-pitch arsenal: a 95-97 fastball, and an 83 split/change, NOT SLIDER, with armside run.
According to F/X, here are all of the relievers in baseball who throw 94+ mph, using armside-run changes and splits as their second pitches:
Brandon League
Jonathan Papelbon
Jose Valverde
Leo Nunez
Ryan Madson
Joaquin Benoit
Blake Hawksworth almost made the list, but he has a three-pitch arsenal using his curve ball a good amount. As we have mentioned before, a three-pitch arsenal is geometrically... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/11
Q. But he was throwing better, right ...
A. Despite the two mechanical gripes I have, Lueke was much "truer" down the centerline.
His head was great, until the ball was already gone, and he got some CG acceleration. It was 100 times better than his scared, tentative centerline jabs earlier this year.
Right now it looks like he's throwing very well, as far as his own motion goes. And he was throwing into a teacup. Just watching the baseball, you'd have thought he was Michael Pineda.
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Q. Is there anything good about a Troy Percival motion?
A. Rushed backswings do create excellent... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/11
16 Comments
pa * thet * ic
–adjective
causing or evoking pity, sympathetic sadness, sorrow, etc.; pitiable
affecting or moving the feelings.
pertaining to or caused by the feelings.
Origin:
1590–1600; Late Latin pathēticus Greek pathētikós
sensitive equivalent to pathēt(ós) made or liable to suffer
—Synonyms 1. plaintive. 2. touching, tender. 3. emotional.
cf. sympathy, empathy, pathology.
***
Excellent piece of writing by Geoff Baker. Head over there, read the first three paragraphs anyway, and we'll wait for ya. ... there, that gives you a feel for it, right?
***
If I'm an executive in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/11
19 Comments
Benihana sez,
It's a wonder that this team was competitive at all this season, remember the M's were only 2.5 games out prior to this losing streak. Look at where the money is going:
Ichiro $18,000,000 = -0.3 WAR
Bradley $13,333,333 = -0.5 WAR
Hernandez $11,700,000 = 3.6 WAR
Figgins $9,500,000 = -1.3 WAR
Wilson $5,000,000 = -0.3 WAR
Aardsma $4,500,000 = DL
Gutierrez $4,312,500 = 0.0 WAR
$66.35 million dollars has bought this team 1.2 WAR.
Anything and everything we can do to jettison the dead-weight should be done, even if it means tossing useful pieces into the deal. Ichiro... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/11
8 Comments
Q. Not sure whether to compare Morneau and Smoak; Morneau was always a better contact hitter.
A. We weren't discussing templates. We were discussing industrywide age-arc patterns.
The BaseballHQ "ARod 10-Step Path To Stardom" transcends player profiles. But then, you knew that; you're a roto Tyrannosaurus. :- )
Players of all types bang around, up and down, for years before hitting "Age 26 With Experience" and becoming All-Stars.
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Q. Are they similar templates, though?
A. Oh yeah. If we were discussing templates, I'd have Morneau, Smoak, and Teixeira in similar baskets.
A... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/21/11
5 Comments
FLIP from Merks: Don't know how many of you guys have lost a parent, but it's really hard on the psyche. It sounds like Smoak didn't just lose his dad but also his best friend and baseball confidante. ... I can't imagine trying to hit a fastball when your mind and body is not in synch.
I still believe Smoak is going to be a great player for the M's but this year is going to be tough for him regardless of how he is plays from here on out.
CHOP: Great catch by Merks. Justin Smoak has definitely been "on tilt" since then. The difference is subtle, between (1) an athlete whose mind is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/21/11
1 Comments
FLIP Anon: If, in the next 10 years, the M's ever let Ackley (uninjured) get close to being an FA I'll give up on the team. Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, Joe Morgan...He's going to be in that 2B league.
Man, he's on a full-season clip to have 60-65 x-base hits!
CHOP: You know what I think is fair to say: it is as reasonable to talk about the Hall of Fame for Dustin Ackley, as it can ever be for --- > a second baseman who has played 25 games.
Probably for most of us, we'd agree that it's hard to visualize an Ackley career in which he does NOT post Alomar-, Sandberg-quality seasons... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/21/11
38 Comments
Q. Seager goes to AAA, which is OK.
A. OK, yeah, but .... not necessarily necessary, Yogi.
I mean, he had a BABIP of .166 causing the low AVG, but he had a SwStr% of 9.1 his first week, and he only swung at 22% of pitches out of zone, 30% being the industry average.
Kyle Seager had looked better than I'd expected, squared the ball up surprisingly well despite his 3-for-18 BABIP.
He had 7 strikeouts in 7 games, very manageable for a first week's attempts, and had 3 walks to go with them. An 0.42 EYE is nothing to hang your head about.
He did nothing to contradict a rather shrill callup... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/20/11
8 Comments
EA sez,
One thought that has been sticking out in my brain lately is how one of the media pundits talked about the run of good pitching that's been around the last year and a half and how it could be that the cycle of baseball is turning back towards pitching. It seems like half the guys coming out of the bullpen these days are throwing 95+ and it seems like starting pitchers that throw 95+ seem to be cropping up all over the place too. Is this a result of improved strength training regimens? ...
Doc has made the point that hitters are really the defense and the pitcher is on offense... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/20/11
11 Comments
=== July 20, 2011 ===
FIRST UPS. With runners on 1B and 2B, nobody out, leading off the game... Brandon Morrow threw Ackley five pitches, four balls and one strike.
Ackley swung at the strike, and did not swing at the balls. And three of those were just about one baseball's width off the strike zone.
Ackley followed them with what Bruce Lee called "half positions," but did not check his swing on any of them. .... Sudden thought: does anybody ever remember Ackley checking a swing? A real checked swing, the kind you appeal at third base?
I'm not sure he can. With that bat wrap, by the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/20/11
8 Comments
In Carp's first two games back, he's 4-for-10 with zero strikeouts and two aggressive, confident plays in left field. He's got two doubles, two singles and of his six outs, several have been unlucky.
He's got a Hideki Matsui-style balance at the plate, has a leg kick and a massive torque going, and he's spraying the ball to left, right and center. He's got a tight strike zone and, oddly for a power hitter, is staying inside the ball -- taking pitches on the inner half and hitting them hard the other way.
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=== July 20, 2011 ===
FIRST UPS. After the M's loaded the bases nobody out,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/11
1 Comments
=== How About a "55.5% Parade" OBP, Dept. ===
For those who just joined us, in 1958 the Green Bay Packers won one game.
In 1959, Vince Lombardi took them over as an NFL rookie head coach; they went 7-and-5 that year.
At winter parties, the Packers were the toast of the little town of Green Bay.
Lombardi famously broke up a few of those parties, roaring at his players (in front of fans) that if they believed in winning a little more, they wouldn't be celebrating "a lousy 7 and 5 record."
In 1960, the Packers won their division -- that is, their half of pro football -- but lost the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/11
5 Comments
=== What Do 4 Hours x 365 days x 50 Years Come To? ===
... Imagine two things: (1) Imagine that the U.S. were destroyed by an invading force, with 298 million people enslaved and you being one of the 2 million who escaped to another country. Watching from abroad, you saw your grandchildren marched to indoctrination camps, you saw dissidents killed, etc. etc.
And imagine that (2) you, under those circumstances, were generally known as the most cheerful, happy person on earth.
This is the case when you are referring to the Dalai Lama.
The Dalai Lama rises at 3:30 a.m. to make room for his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/11
=== Resistance Is Futile, Dept. ===
Jerry Kramer was a guard on all five of Lombardi's title winners.
In Instant Replay, he wrote with a straight face that "We never lose a game. Really, we never do. Of course, once in a while the clock runs out while the other team has more points than we do, but we know that if we kept playing, we'd eventually win."
That was the way with the 2011 AL West race. If the race were played forever, eventually the Mariners would have lost to either the Angels and Rangers. They were better in 2011.
That's okay. Only a coward refuses to fight until he's the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/11
1 Comments
=== 2011 Objectives in the 2H, #2 ===
Get a SPARK going.
Get Mike Carp, and/or Justin Smoak, and/or somebody, to provide Dustin Ackley some support. Get some life into the offense. Get a more vital, more vibrant picture out onto the field in 2011.
You'll hear MLB franchises talk about wanting "to get something going to carry over into next year." The idea isn't to lie down and die and then hope next March jells out of thin air. The idea is to build a team that is simply going to take a winter break and then continue play in 2012.
Professional poker players know about the concept of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/11/11
8 Comments
Sez Spec,
Guti has sunk into an absolute sinkhole (.227 SLG). His last XBH was June 10.
Smoak, Olivo, Ryan and Kennedy are all on the wrong side of a slippery slope at the moment, with only Smoak having a strong likelihood of meaningful upside.
The bullpen is showing some wear and tear.
Ackley's brilliance is just fading into the soup.
Just my view, but it doesn't look pretty right now.
Tonight's shtick begins with the question of whether the 4-game Angels' blitzkrieg put the M's into a standing 8 count, or whether the ref steps in and stops da fight ...
In the meantime, here's a fun... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/08/11
13 Comments
=== Vintage Eck Territory ===
Thursday's ballgame featured two long, lean SP's with 90 mph fastballs and exquisite command. One is a superstar about to cash in a $125M contract; the other is patted on the head and told "attaboy" for hanging in there with his 3-10 record.
It hits me that really the biggest difference between Jered Weaver, and Doug Fister, is...
Weaver being attuned to whether the hitters are passive or aggressive.
I was amazed during the game. Every time Jered threw a 71-76 breaking pitch, the amped-up batter lunged out in front. (For those who just joined us, when... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/08/11
4 Comments
=== A Little Cheese With that Whine, Doc? ===
M-Pops sez,
If ever there were ever a time for Wedge to have a good, old-fashioned Manager meltdown on the umps, last night after the blown call @ 3B was it.
12-15 blown strikes AND blowing the Peguero throw?! Worst officiating I have seen in some time.
Blowers, in the booth, was stunned at the calls on Fister.
Those weren't arguable borderline pitches -- in one sequence the tracer had five clear strikes taken away from Fister in about ten pitches. Boom, an inning or two later, the extra stress contributed to a mini-fracture and an Angels... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/11
7 Comments
Q. [Malcontent] Is a Bill Mueller career too much to hope for?
A. Interesting suggestion. Mueller was a player I was fond of, too ... Let's tick off the defining attributes of Bill Mueller and whether they match up to those of Kyle Seager:
Short to the ball ... Yeah, as I recall ... photo
Long extension through the ball ... Si senor ... photo and photo
Yet line-drive swing for 1B's and 2B's, not HR's ... Da comrade ... Mueller .291, 35 doubles, 11 HR's
KBIZLT - ? couldn't tell ya
6-footer, extra strong core ... Nah, Mueller was more angular
Bats left, throws right ... ji ali ... Mueller... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/06/11
18 Comments
Sez OKDan,
Per Drayer, and now the official M's twitter, Seager has been called up.
WOW, 12 games in Tacoma. That was FAST. Very excited, though.
SSI had, ridiculously, suggested that Kyle Seager might provide a hold 'em flip card this July. When Dr. Detecto cannot keep up with Jack Zduriencik in the Stars & Scrubs track meets, you know something is wrong.
G-Money sez,
I dunno where he's gonna play (3B I assume, with Kennedy in LF?) but it was RIGHT after the game.
Tomorrow's an off-day, and today is get-away day for the Rainiers. They could have left him on Tacoma (for me to see... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/11
8 Comments
........
=== Play One ===
In the 2nd, Felix Hernandez throws a 1-2 "changeup" to Conor Jackson, striking him out. The ball arrived at 88 mph, diving like a forkball just as Jackson swung.
Felix' change has always been a historically-great pitch, and in 2011 it has taken residence on stage in the Theater of the Absurd.
Felix saved the Mariners .9 runs with just 23 changeups on Tuesday, and he got 22% swinging strikes with it. Its runs value on the season is -3.73 runs below average per 100 pitches, and I do not remember the last time a hitter put it in play in fair territory.
***
The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/11
=== Play Four ===
In the 10th, David DeJesus, bunting for a hit, is thrown out. DeJesus laid down the type of hyper-buntage that will, literally, result in a .700 batting average. It was very long, to the pitcher's mound; it was to the pitcher's right as he fell off the mound; it was directly at the SS, in no-man's land.
Adam Kennedy blurred across the TV screen, scooped it, and ran up the mound two steps to fire at Smoak from the pitcher's rubber. OUT!!
***
In June, there was speculation that it would hurt the Mariners to substitute Adam Kennedy for Chone Figgins ... and a lot of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/11
10 Comments
=== Play Five ===
In the 9th, Miguel Olivo throws out Coco Crisp trying to steal 2B with the winning run. Olivo's 90 mph laser beam preserved extra innings, and it was literally one foot off the ground and one foot to the 1B side of the bag.
Imagine Doug Fister standing 105* feet away on second base, throwing a 90 mph fastball to home plate, hitting the outside corner perfectly -- with no windup, and after having just caught a throw a split-second earlier. That's what catchers like Miguel Olivo do.
Johnny Bench's pitchers used to envy his arm, and it was not hyperbole. As an M's fan,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/11
1 Comments
......
=== Play Eight ===
In the 2nd, Dustin Ackley tags up and scores on a medium-short fly ball. His chances were no better than 50-50, but there were two out and Franklin Gutierrez up. Guti grounded out on the next play.
It's a POTD for another day, but guess what? The 2011 Mariners just now realized that they have to take chances on the bases.
It is a mathematical fact that the lower the run-scoring environment, the more it benefits a baseball team to run. That means that this team needs to run constantly -- it will become a better team with 3-4 SB attempts every night.
That isn't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/04/11
5 Comments
This interesting HBT article does a great job quantifying the value of catcher "pitch framing."
A catcher might be worth +10, even +20, runs per season due to persistent strike calls that follow him around the league. So saith the first cut of data, anyway.
And, the comments thread is infested with celebrities such as Tango, Lichtmann, and pro catchers, so the discussion is as good as the research. This light bulb, offered to us by a catcher, is worth the price of admission all by itself:
As a former college and professional catcher, I though I’d toss in this thought on the effect of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/04/11
=== May 12-22, 2011 ===
The Mariners' rotation fired an amazing lockdown streak, allowing 2 runs or less in 7 IP or more in nine straight games.
Two runs in 7 innings? That undersold it: in those nine games, the enemy scored a grand total of 14 runs against all Mariner pitchers.
.
=== May 23, 2011 ===
Jason Vargas got his head beat in. He walked 4, struck out only 2, gave up 2 homers and yielded 16 line drives and fly balls against only 5 grounders. He did not complete five innings.
Worse than that, he looked like a pitcher who didn't belong in the majors.
By the second inning, the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/04/11
6 Comments
=== July 1-4, 2011 ===
In Bard's next four games, the Mariners gave up 0, 1, 1, and 1 runs. Dr. D danced the Futterwack vigorously.
Well, the M's have great pitchers, though -- three different Cy Young candidates in their rotation. But! Were these lockdowns fired by Felix and Bedard? No, this glorious run included:
A complete-game shutout twirled by Jason Vargas (see May 23 section above);
A 1-run game by Doug Fister at his best -- with a 9 6 1 1 1 7 line, mind you
An ML debut game by Blake Beavan, of all people, and
Monday's 7 strikeout, 4-hit, 1-run game by Michael Pineda
True, the M'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/11
2 Comments
Q. What's the bottom line?
A. He looks ready to deliver a 100 ERA+ for the next three, four years, starting now.
I don't personally see him as having much upside, in any scenario. On the other hand, his game looks very repeatable and predictable, with an appealing "floor."
He's not a AAA pitcher. His game looks like it will work fine in the majors.
.
Q. What pitcher family does he belong in?
A. James didn't write a pitcher family for guys with Beavan's game. James was classifying the top 100 pitchers of all time, and none of those threw like Beavan does.
It's not possible to become... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/11
Q. What makes Beavan anything more than one more AAA schlub trying to hit spots?
A. Beavan is special -- compared to the 20,000 AAA guys -- in several respects.
First of all, his mechanics are uncommonly clean and quiet, as Fister's were. You'll remember that SSI bet into the pot on Doug Fister based on three things: (1) sweet mechanics, (2) track record of exceptionally few BB's, and (3) makeup.
Beavan does indeed have these three things to an unusual extent. (He does not have them to Fister's magnitude.)
.
Q. What's special about Beavan's mechanics?
A. Beavan's mechanics are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/11
15 Comments
.........
Q. Seven innings, one run. Why would he ever get knocked out? What does a bad Blake Beavan game look like?
A. Why did Fister ever get hit last year?
These guys don't get lots of strikeouts. Sometimes the grounders go through holes. And sometimes it's Adrian Gonzalez at the plate.
We're not saying that Beavan's a plus starter, but he can go out there and pitch a tough game. He'll be ahead in the count, 0-1 and 1-2, and the fastball will come in there located. So his defense, and the park, will prevent some runs.
.
Q. There's no upside, you say? Why not?
A. Unless you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/02/11
33 Comments
...............
=== Doug Fister's FX ===
If you're a right hand hitter, the dotted circles on this chart are there to indicate what the break on a normal ML pitch looks like to you. (A pitch with no spin, no air resistance, thrown in a vacuum, or whatever, would hit exactly at the intersection of the X and Y axes.)
The colored starbursts indicate where Doug Fister's pitches were breaking, on Saturday.
The F/X system was probably mis-reading the "four-seam" fastballs, but forget about that. The point is the "marginal" break that Fister gets on his FB and changeup. The RH batter reads... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/02/11
1 Comments
=== Shut Out Again ===
Had Carlos Peguero started in left field, the Mariners would (on paper) have suffered a no-hit, no-run game. (The M's only two hits were from backup OF Greg Halman.)
***
Chuck Knox used to do midweek reviews of Seahawk games on TV with Bruce King. Knox cowboy'ed up, win or loss. In the middle of one Seahawk slump, he watched the Jets hit a long bomb down the middle for a TD, against double coverage.
Knox growled, "When one o' theirs beats two o' yours, there's not a thing you can do about it. From a coaching standpoint."
You feel 'im? A coach can read the play... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/01/11
36 Comments
There does come a point, in a chess game, when you resign -- even though you may still have 1-in-500 chances of winning.
There comes a point in an NBA game, in which a coach pulls his regulars, and saves their legs for the next game.
There comes a point in an MLB game, in which a manager runs up the white flag, and makes pitching changes with a view towards winning tomorrow's game, not today's. When the Padres were down 6-0 in the 8th to the Mariners, they weren't going to use their best setup man.
There certainly comes a time, in sports, when cooler heads must prevail and you keep your... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/01/11
10 Comments
Paul raises an interesting discussion point:
Waaait ... 70 HIT for Seager? That's a ton of love, and probably juuuuust a bit high. I'd give Ackley a 65 tops, and that's not diss'n' Ack-Ack Attack one bit. Seager & Snelling are definitely a step below that.
While I do think Ackley's ceiling is a lefty-Edgar with slightly less pop, he's still slightly below Edgar in his hit tool. Edgar's a 70 hit tool. Gwynn, too. Ichiro probably. Ackley's a step below all of those guys, and Seager's a step below Ackley. Still a decent player, that has a chance of being a league-average regular, but I... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/01/11
12 Comments
Thanks to Matthew of Lookout Landing for catching the Clinton tweet and for supplying a concise little op-ed on it. :daps:
The consensus among M's kibitzers had been adamant against his promotion. See, for example, comment #10 in this thread, if you'd like a summary of the anti-promotion point of view.
The live element in these (reasonably) skeptical groups is that --- > a pitcher who's just had a year-and-a-half off is going to be royally messed up. His mechanics and his control are going to take a while to come back, and his arm strength is going to be down -- making him fragile... Read More