September 2010
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/10
5 Comments
Champ persists:
Whats your take on Spingers' Ks Doc?
If he's still running below-average contact rates, do you still want him at #2?
Yes, if he's running exactly these EYE ratios, I'm jazzed to grab him with the 2.
You guys gotta pull off using K rates in isolation. :- ) That's free advice.
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=== Workin' the Count ===
We always have to keep in mind that some hitters simply let the first 2, 3, 4 pitches go by.
A hitter with a 0.85 EYE, like Springer's, could easily choose to post an excellent contact rate if he wanted to attack the first pitch. But a guy who routinely takes the count... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/29/10
30 Comments
I/O: The entire baseball world, by which we mean "a couple thousand 'net rats in Seattle," is breathlessly wondering whether the Pirates could feasibly pass on Anthony Rendon with the #1 pick.
CRUNCH: As Spectator noted below, Rendon has 46 homers in 468 college AB's. He also has an unpossible 65:22 EYE this year.
Had this occurred in the PCL, the mainframe would accept Rendon's stardom as inevitable.
Since it occurred with Rendon swinging a pipe, against 50% pitchers who won't even throw in rookie ball, we'll remind you that Alex Gordon did pretty much the same thing in college, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/29/10
9 Comments
Q. Wow, is this kid Neftali Perez or what?
A. What. :- )
This is the kinda arm that gets you named top pitcher in your org, whether or not it comes with luxury amenities such as .... a head, a line of success, or a pro delivery ... attached.
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Q. He doesn't have a pro delivery?
A. If he went through the Bibbity-Bobbity-Majin, Super and Kid Boo evolutions, then he would be short of a pro delivery. Right now he's got, I dunno what.
Check the vid dropped in by Spec. You might want to install that rubber mouthguard they use for electroshock. Then run the vid, 1st and 3rd pitches (the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/29/10
Q. But could he still throw 102, throwing the right way? Or would he lose that coupla feet?
A. He'd have an easier time throwing hard, throwing the right way.
It never ceases to amaze Dr. D, the way they (1) send kids out with deliveries like this, (2) get outings that alternate between (2a) fan-the-side or (2b) four wild pitches, and shrug (3) well, that's just growing pains.
No, it ain't growing pains. It's a sock-wah delivery. And it could be fixed in two bullpens.
Completely amazing that a pitcher could throw 98 mph with a decel like that. It's like Hugh "One-Arm" Daily's doubles... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/29/10
Q. Should Cortes be starting, then?
A. Here's a guy with a mechanical face born for radio, the bullpen radio, that is.
When we speak of a "starter's rhythm" we speak of a man who relies on technique rather than adrenaline. We're speaking of leverage rather than muscle, of a slightly shorter step down the mound, of an uber-repeatable motion.
This repeatable motion, after 10 or 20 or 30 pitches, lends itself to more and more hair-fine control.
....................
Relievers, on the other hand, can't possibly get to their superfine control in the one inning they have. Absent the chance to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/29/10
Q. Nobody who throws 97 can fail? Brandon League is kinda like that, and he has disappointed. There was Daniel Cabrera.
A. Well, first of all, League has been effective. His ERA and xFIP are 3.50 this year. That's good.
But, yeah. Where's the star, right.
..............
Longtime STATS AOL guys will remember Scott Sanders, Paul Spoljaric and Bobby Ayala ...
Paul Spoljaric had just finished two seasons with 9k, 4bb and came to the Mariners having been one of the Jays' best relievers. Unfortunately, the Mariners did not know how to sequence his pitches, and a lack of deception led to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/29/10
3 Comments
Q. How's Yuniesky Betancourt been doing?
A. .274 OBP last year, .287 OBP this year, -$7mills value last year, +0.6mills this year.
In other words, he's been worth about a million more than Jack Wilson.
No, seriously, the Cortes-for-Betancourt trade is one that every sabertista fantasizes making, as he runs amok over the non-math'ed-up morons competing with him. ... until he winds up with some other Yuniesky Betancourt at the same position, that is...
All jokes aside, the value that real GM's put on guys like Yuniesky Betancourt, and Jack Wilson, and Josh Wilson ... it underlines the... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 09/27/10
2 Comments
For the first time in a long while, an MLB box score had me searching for video. Alas, for whatever reason, there is video of Dan Cortes in his first MLB outing -- http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12419613 -- but nothing of him striking out the side on Sunday.
So, settle for the Gameday pitch-by-pitch:
Brignac:
1. 95 FB Called strike
2. 95 FB Swinging strike
3. 97 FB Ball
4. 96 FB Swining strike
Pena:
1. 98 FB Ball
2. 84 Slider Called strike
3. 96 FB Ball
4. 96 FB Swinging strike
5. 97 FB Swinging strike
Shoppach:
1. 85 Slider Ball
2. 97 FB Foul
3. 97 FB Foul
4.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/10
30 Comments
Champ replies, amicably, that he sees Chavez as a poor match for Dye.
Actually, when I comp'ed Chavez to Dye, I was thinking tools-wise, not saber-wise. Sabermetrically, they both showed roughly 280/350/470 with 0.40, 0.50 EYEs, but that wasn't what I was thinking of.
Interestingly, a second look makes me wonder if Chavez isn't a pretty good match for Dye, on the performance end as well...
Dye struck out less, no doubts there, but that's about where the significant differences stop IMHO.
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=== Quid Pro Quo ===
We're not saying that Chavez is necessarily as talented as Dye. We're comparing... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 09/22/10
19 Comments
Since we started looking at James Jones and his strong second half, I looked up where he went in the draft, and it struck me that it was worth sharing what an exciting class it is turning out to be. And, to clarify, the draft is McNamara's bailiwick, not Fusco's.
Rd 1 -- Dustin Ackley. Solid MLB regular at worst. Everyone had him as the top hitter in the draft as a corner OF or 1B (maybe CF). But the Z-Crew has him in the middle infield. If you knew he could handle 2B (which most folks didn't), would you take him over Strasburg (with or without knowing about the injury)? Certainly not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/10
Spectator, giving us a welcome chance for closure, files a strong closing argument on behalf of the prosecution: :- )
A woman says she is violated. She has male DNA on her person. The male DNA is Josh Lueke's. Without any embellishment or technicalities of the judicial system or anything else. I think that gets taken seriously in 30 of 30 cities.
You bet. Of course it's "taken seriously" in 30 cities. Everything in pro sports is taken seriously.
But did Johann Santana get drummed out of town because he was accused of rape, and his reply was merely a claim that it was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/10
14 Comments
Spec follows up strongly:
So I think there is definite fault to be placed on Z. Obviously, they agreed it would not cost him his job, but it would cost him Fusco. Armstrong could have let it drop more gracefully, and could have given Z and Fusco more "cover" instead of letting the media run with the "Fusco fired due to Lueke mess" storyline. That shows a lack of class on Armstrong's side, but we knew that already.
Another interesting point -- let me ask you a sincere question, Spec.
Why is Fusco the guy to bite it? As Adair said, Josh Lueke's situation was "common knowledge" in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/21/10
10 Comments
Q. Do you take it seriously, that Zduriencik just called Chavez a "potential All-Star type talent" in his letter to the regulars?
A. I do, sure.
Zduriencik listed seven minor leaguers as "potential All-Star type talents." You object, this is a fluff letter designed to get ticket renewals.
I respond, of course it is, but ... supposing that Zduriencik had been asked to name "potential All-Star type talents" at a USSM interview, and he ripped off seven names. Would you have taken that seriously?
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Q. Those names being?
A. The Big Four, the three Mariner blue-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/21/10
Q. Does his K/BB alarm you? Is he Wlad Balentien?
A. I suppose that every M's right-hand Latin hitter with 70 power is going to be Wlad Balentien for awhile. Sigh.
There are 9,000 species within the "big free-swinging righty with 70 power" genus. I don't see why Chavez would comp to Balentien, as opposed to a Jermaine Dye, a Dave Winfield, an Adam Jones ... or to a Marc Newfield, for that matter.
Balentien was the last RH power prospect the Mariners had; they have that in common :- )
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Q. Can he hit? You know, HIT skill as opposed to PWR skill.
A. SSI supposes that this is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/21/10
3 Comments
Q. How about Chavez compared to Wlad Balentien and to Greg Halman.
A. Chavez does have some physical similarities to Greg Halman. I fancy the comparison of Johermyn Chavez to what Greg Halman would be, if Halman did not have the harrowing strikeout concerns. Greg Halman with a better EYE.
You might say that 52:131 is a lousy eye. Not really. In context, it's really just a power hitter's EYE at age 21 -- one strikeout per game, with about 0.40 walks per.
That's a lot different than Halman's 29:183 last year -- or even his 37:169 this year.
Balentien, at age 20, had a 33:160 ratio... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/21/10
15 Comments
Q. Is there any decent video on him?
A. Best I've found -- hook me up, gentlemen -- is this one.
First thing you notice is that Chavez is very light on his feet, like Frank Thomas was at 21-22. He is fidgety, twitchy, has too much strength for his weight.
Watch him take off out of the batter's box and again you see Dave Winfield -- the super-long, loping strides, his legs almost impatient with his body as he charges around first base in about seven massive strides.
If you slow down the swing on his hit, you also see a totally ridiculous hip launch. First you've got freakish... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/21/10
Index to the writeups on Josh Lueke, just after the Mariners traded for him in July:
................
POTD Josh Lueke I - Lueke being a virtual lock to star as an ML impact reliever.
His [K/BB/HR] intersected with his [pitching template] putting him in a category with short men like Bard, Marmol, and Gregerson, and most of all Jeff Nelson.
That's not a ROOGY profile, contrary to popular assumption, just because the nuclear pitch is a slider. It's a stud-setup man profile, or a closer profile.
..................
POTD Josh Lueke II - In which we explain the specific reasons why Lueke's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/21/10
10 Comments
=== Capt. Jack ===
My take on Jack Zduriencik's performance here? SSI believes that Zduriencik's only "messup" was to fail to anticipate Chuck Armstrong's PC sensitivities.
SSI believes that Armstrong's sensitivities are different from those that a GM finds in the typical ML city, and that the Times' reporting would not have gained nearly so much traction in Arlington or Chicago or Kansas City. I could be wrong.
............
I don't fault Zduriencik for this, at all. I see it as one more case wherein a man of colossal stature and reputation in baseball, ran headlong into a Seattle... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/21/10
20 Comments
She's over-bored and self-assured
I know, I know - A dirty word
- Teen Spirit, Nirvana
..............
Sandy writes:
To interject a "possible" shift in perspective for Matt to ponder.
Your interpretation of Geoff's piece and defense is that you view him as lacking a moral foundation (to some degree).
However - I could EASILY see Geoff's piece viewed as being *OVERLY* moralistic.
To distance ourselves from the case in point to try and look at the 'general' topic. Let's say, (as an example), I were to write a piece on a kid given the exact same punishment that Lueke received - but for a DWI-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/17/10
33 Comments
David H with provocative questions. They are fair questions, stated respectfully:
I'm interested in how you viewed the information regarding Alford pleas. I think it cuts both ways - if Alford pleas are possible, and Lueke did not affirmatively maintain his innocence, it seems that this would cut against him. These pleas are rare, though, and the prosecutor may not have been willing to go along with the plea deal if Lueke wanted to state his innocence on the record. A five second google search shows that California permitted these pleas at least as recently as 2006 (defendant: Jean... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/17/10
12 Comments
Geoff's argument on this point being:
Again, the balance you are seeking is the "Yeah, we take responsibility but are really innocent" plea. You don't get to do that in this country. When you accept guilt, you accept it.
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Attorney number two (following Mojician), or at least law student number two we presume, replies:
Actually, you can do that in this country. It's called an Alford plea, based on North Carolina v. Alford, 400 U.S. 25 (1970). It differs from a plea of nolo contendre because the defendant affirmatively maintains his innocence while pleading guilty. Judges, however,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/17/10
5 Comments
CA said:
Agree or disagree with Geoff, he is very politely answering what [from one poster] are increasingly shrill accusations. .... please show some humility towards the guest who is gracious enough to entertain opposing views publicly. I can think of at least one local site where this exchange would never happen, we are lucky to read a couple that allow it.
SSI couldn't agree more with this. We have nothing but respect for the fact that Geoff will (a) show this kind of respect for his audience, to speak with them as the equals that they in fact are; (b) invest his valuable... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/10
37 Comments
After 9,000 posts about Lueke's probable guilt or innocence, we finally get one from an attorney who has seen the inside of a courtroom. Megathanks, Mojician. Nice to have some of your light to go with my heat :- )
Mojician writes:
.......................
I have worked as a criminal defense attorney for a long time. Here are a few things that you might not know about the justice system.
1. When a person pleads guilty to a charge, it often has no relation to what he actually did, but always bears a relationship to the consequences inherent in the charge.
This happens in all sorts... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/10
4 Comments
Geoff has had a hot, bright light on him the last week or two, arguing his case on a dozen different fronts. One of those becomes, "how serious was Lueke's crime?"
Again using a pseudo-roundtable-type format, bouncing off Geoff's reply to SABRMatt:
And that is why I am not about to turn any story about this case into a PR piece about how well Lueke is doing after the fact. It's been less than 10 months since he was sentenced and really isn't relevent when it comes to relaying the severity of his crime to readers. Of course, he probably regrets the whole thing and is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/10
6 Comments
Part 1
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There's a critical divide here between "blaming the victim" and "fairly weighing the extenuating circumstances";
You can question a victim's judgment about situations. But I am not about to blame the victim for a crime committed against them. That's a whole different story.
You have to understand that Lueke accepted responsibility for this crime. As such, he is no longer on a level playing field with his victim.
Not blame, no. Absolutely not.
But we're talking about extenuating circumstances here. Bloggers don't have to worry about them. Judges do.
"Sexual assault" can... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/10
31 Comments
Previous (2 of 3)
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Q. Is it reasonable for a sports fan to point at a guy and say, "I don't want that guy on my team?"
A. I suppose I've got to admit that it is.
But in my experience, that fan is usually being inconsistent and unfair, with the target. He'll argue that Joe Shlabotnik is despicable and shouldn't even be in sports -- and then turn around and give John Crumb a complete pass for doing something as bad, or worse.
If the average sports fan had ANY idea what the typical pro athlete is up to on the road, and the situations he gets into, he'd have a LOT of re-thinking to do.
It... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/10
Baker and I are talking past each other at precisely one point: why do we say that "the Mariners" didn't know about Leuke?
Looks obvious to me that:
From Zduriencik down, they knew who Josh Lueke was, and didn't especially care.
Armstrong and Lincoln didn't, at the moment of the trade, know who Lueke was.
After Z and co. found out how much Armstrong and Lincoln did care about the personal background, only then did Z's spin machine kick in -- with the intent of repairing interoffice relationships.
Which you opposed (the spin machine, that is) with the intent of establishing the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/10
Previous (1 of 3)
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=== F-500 Ethics, Dept. ===
With Baker's boolean logic Track A (Zduriencik was ignorant) vs Track B (Zduriencik was lying), in either case, Geoff believes that he has a scandal* here. I respect that, but I disagree, and I'll explain exactly why.
Now in some contexts, telling the truth is an absolute. If you're a minister n certain churches, for example, if you lie deliberately, even a time or two, and are caught, you're going to be out as a preacher or elder.
...............
But! Nintendo is not a church. Absolutes seldom apply. American situational ethics... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/10
7 Comments
Previous (2 of 3)
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=== Good Intentions Dept. ===
As Baker has made clear, his own intention was nowhere near the hemisphere of "putting two CEO's at one another's throats" nor were his intentions to see Josh Lueke suffer.
Another apology by me: I've implied, lightly, that Baker wouldn't mind seeing Armstrong and Zduriencik go at each other. This was evidently incorrect, and unfair. I'm sorry. Baker's own remarks on this are:
As for pitting executives against one another, I can't help it if Chuck Armstrong says he was told one thing by Zduriencik and two people of solid reputation... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/10
SSI has been selling Baker as the best Mariners writer that Seattle has had, which, by the way, has left a few amigos puzzled. The Lueke scandal has left me somewhat annoyed, and we finished our last article with our first unfair criticism of Baker:
Word is that Baker's looking to move East Coast first chance he gets.** If that's the way it plays out, Baker's efforts to hold the local club accountable will have turned out to be nothing more than an asterisk in the Lincoln-Armstrong era.
For which we apologize to Geoff. The unfairness from an unexpected source, did have the fortunate... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/10
As Grizzly, himself a business manager, put it at Mariner Central:
Ok - I still think he's head hunting but mad props for him showing up to post his reply. Mad props.
And it goes wayyyy beyond taking the time, as such.
There are any number of dudes who will (1) publish an opinion that (2) is damaging to others and then (3) scurry away and claim they don't have the time to engage the rabble.
This is, of course, not true. There's nobody busier than me :- ) and I still figure if I've got the time to publish a controversial opinion, then I've got the time to answer for it.
One time as I was... Read More
Posted by erika on 09/15/10
12 Comments
Only one game stands between the Seattle Storm and the WNBA title. The Storm will play Atlanta on Thursday, capping off a tremendous season for professional sports in Seattle.
The Storm's outstanding year and contention for the championship makes it all the more puzzling that the media has largely been silent on the topic. Last weekend, the Seattle Times splashed the Huskies game all over the front page, but the Storm got no love.
Such a fickle media! The Storm stuck around with Seattle after the Sonics left. Were in fact rescued from the terrible fate of life in Oklahoma by a group of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/10
Q. What were the batting lines?
A. The three games:
Game One - 2-4 with a SB off Carpenter and co; rest of Jaxx combined for 4 hits
Game Two - 1-5, with an RBI, two K's vs McNutt and co. -- Jaxx fanned 13 times vs. Cubbie pitching
Game Three - 0-4, three ugly-looking strikeouts vs Muschko etc.
In game three, Franklin's three strikeouts looked terrible in the box score. First AB, for example, three pitches -- the last one called. Second AB, another three-pitch K. Next AB, four pitches, one ball way above his head, along with three swings and misses with no foul tips even -- so that's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/10
8 Comments
Q. How tough were the pitchers, really?
A. On a visceral level, you've got to think of Franklin as being a high school player taking on major leaguers.
The biggest jump in baseball, by a long ways, is the one between A+ and AA baseball. Class A+ baseball is the low minors, but AA baseball can and does feature pitchers who would do fine in the American League.
We remember Mark Langston coming straight up from AA and being one of the best pitchers in the major leagues from his very first start -- in other words, when AA baseball had Langston in it, it had an MLB All-Star in the league. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/10
The Mariners fired Zduriencik's scouting director -- you know, the one who was in place when Nick Franklin was drafted and in place during the general transition of Mariners minor league baseball from "joke" to "scary good."
Spec says:
From a raw inside perspective, having one of your first hires and a long-time personal friend fired out from under you is a very bad sign of one's standing within an organization.
I'm not sure if Z was just caught up in the moment or what, but the Lueke saga has burned up a TON of his inside capital if you read between the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/10
Q. "In the abstract" it's on the junior exec to keep his nose clean with the senior exec? Is this specific situation any different?
A. There are concrete circumstances here that should have caused a completely different read by the 5th-level.
Jack Zduriencik was brought in as a Rainmaker. He made rain. He did it exactly as he did in Milwaukee. Now the 5th-level is horrified by his tactics....
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Q. Rainmaker?
A. Like in a law firm -- and the M's are run by lawyers -- say the Company is lacking big-pockets clients. It hires a big gun away from another company because he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/10
2 Comments
Q. Do you think that Lincoln and Armstrong are sincerely aghast about Leuke, or do you think they're just managing PC relationships?
A. I'm sure that they're sincerely revolted by the charges against Leuke.
And the fact is, that they've been doing corporate culture like this their whole lives.
Hey, a 4th-level didn't care about this org's mission. He's lucky he didn't get fired. That's their conditioning, in my opinion.
...............
The mistake they are making, in my opinion, is that they're forgetting that they're lawyers rather than baseball men.
When they have this kind of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/10
32 Comments
Q. I notice that the Times is still chewing the ankle for every inch it's worth.
A. It's starting to remind me of 1992.
Don James owned the Pac-10, and a local P-I reporter started digging up dirt, hoping for a "scoop" as to how dirty the Husky program was, hoping for a national impact.
He got one. Although James' program was cleaner than the other Pac-10 programs, and although the UW penalized itself for the infractions the reporter dug up, the other nine Pac-10 vicars took the opportunity to guillotine James' program. Which, 25 years later, is still a catastrophe.
They buried James... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/10/10
26 Comments
Q. If it were up to SSI, would Felix win the Cy Young?
A. Probably not. It's a pretty close race this year, and under those circumstances it's hard to give it to a .500 pitcher for a 100-loss team. That kind of pitcher should be a lot better than his comp to win it.
I might plump for Sabathia or Liriano.
..................
Bill James once called Cy Young voting "a tradition in the worst sense of the word, a tradition in the sense that we know we're doing it wrong, but we're going to keep doing it that way because that's how we've done it for a long time."
He was referring to the fact... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/10/10
Q. If it were up to SSI, would there be a Ken Griffey Jr. Way outside Safeco?
A. We sympathize with the urge to decide this question based on whether you like, or dislike, Ken Griffey Jr. as a person. And/or based on whether you think he betrayed the organization.
We sympathize, because that's what MLB franchises do too: they frequently seem to put players in their team HOF's based on whether the execs in power at the time personally like or dislike the player. Randy Johnson will be a case in point.
.................
But a statue and a street, that is a question that transcends... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/10/10
13 Comments
The AA Diamond Jaxx got crushed by the Smokies, 11-1, evening up the series after two games. Chris Carpenter - no, not that Chris Carpenter, but a talented AA flamethrower -- led a dominating pitching performance as the Diamond Jaxx got only four scattered singles against the 11 strikeouts they suffered.
Four scattered singles, except for Franklin, who had two line-drive base hits and a stolen base, with no strikeouts.
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=== Prospect Report ===
BaseballHQ, before the season, relayed the following info about Christopher Carpenter:
"Lively mid-90's fastball" up to 96 mph
79-82 slider "can be a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/10/10
9 Comments
Nick Franklin's 2010 season was praised all around -- hey, nice job there kid, we'll keep an eye on yer -- but it was SSI fans who rang the town bell.
Franklin's season wasn't merely a pleasant surprise; it was the kind of season that nailed him as one of the best prospects in baseball. "One of the top 20 hitting prospects in the minors, EASILY," quoth one of them, Taro or G-Money I think it was.
Dr. D flung himself onto the pig pile, demonstrating that Franklin has an Ichiro-, Griffey-, Hamilton-class swing from the left side.
G-Money also recognized that the intersection of [Midwest... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 09/09/10
8 Comments
So, *HOW* does a Kevin Rivers come from nowhere to lead a low minors league in OPS?
The answer is both simple and complex. I'll start with a simpler question:
How many baseball coaches across America are "decent"?
I work at the National Center for Health Statistics. Once upon a time, I was asked by a visitor: "How many people work here?" "About half," I quipped.
Well, that is probably a humongously generous estimate of competent baseball coaches. How is that that Tom's River, New Jersey seems to get a team deep into the Little League World Series repeatedly? The answer is NOT that there... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/09/10
=== Wit and Wisdom Dept. ===
Slap me silly, you want to see some tight writin' infotainment, check out Spec on Kevin Rivers.
That article is a model of what M's-minors blogging should be: heavy research, witty lines, great sense of backdrop and context, a topic (Rivers) that is garden-fresh, yada yada yada ... you can't stop Specktater, you can only hope to contain him.
Not going to call this a POTD, since Spec already had that one. But hip-checking off his fine work, we'll try to offer a bit of almanac-style perspective:
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Q. If a hitter is nowhere at 21, is it possible for him to be an... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/09/10
Q. If a hitter is a solid-average player at 21, in full-season A or high A, is he a plus prospect?
A. The rule of thumb is that a glory pheenom, let's say Dustin Ackley or Nick Franklin, should be a MOTO in A+ at 20.
But MLB engines don't run on the fuel of superstar prospects, any more than your roto team runs on the fuel of Albert Pujolses and Jon Lesters. Your roto team is concerned with the rank-and-file. So are MLB teams concerned with non-Smoak minor leaguers. The Smoak scenarios play themselves.
Don't get too used to the career arcs that apply to the very best prospects in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/09/10
Q. Couple more visuals on this nowhere-at-20 pattern recog?
A. You might remember David Ortiz (Arias), who was judged by not one but two ML franchises a non-prospect. At age 21, he hit thirty homers in A ball but with an alarming 150:50 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He was comparable to Greg Halman, but Halman's playing tougher leagues for the same age.
.............
Raul Ibanez, at age 21, was in low class A, like Rivers was. He hit 275/375/390 ... in other words, a whale of a lot less than Rivers did, same age-and-level. At ages 24-to-26, Rauuullll was still a very pedestrian, dime-a-dozen... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/09/10
Q. Why do the Mariners still seem lukewarm against him?
A. Pass the microphone to G-Money here, who commented in Spec's thread,
Rivers has been a little lucky as well as a lotta good. His BABIP is .413, which is not gonna hold...but in the minors, BABIP is higher for almost everyone than it is in the bigs. Defenders are worse, so more balls get through. If you drop his BABIP to a minor-league reasonable .330 he's a .900 OPS hitter in a hitter's park, and pretty neutral thus far against righties and lefties. His eye is terrific, basically 1:1. His strikeouts are a little high but if he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/09/10
1 Comments
Q. Where do you peg his pitch recognition, at 21?
A. Super high. He hadn't played pro ball before, and here he is at 1.00. Right out of the gate. Whattaya want, 1.5?
Taro says,
Sometimes a high BABIP in the low minors can be a sign of a guy who is too good for the league. Looking at his monthly splits hes never had a BABIP lower than .375. Given that LD rate is really unreliable in the minors, I think hes probably going to be high BABIP wherever he goes although hes going to lose 50 points easy as he moves up.
The K rate is a bit high which is usually a bad sign in the low minors,... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 09/08/10
9 Comments
I didn't know, either.
And now that I've spent some time, I'm still not quite sure.
But, for now, it is a Cinderella Story that might even turn into something.
== Road to Rindge ==
Rivers comes from Bristol, CT. Someday, decades from now, volunteer actors wearing authentic 1980s-period sportcoats will portray Chris Berman and Dick Vitale at the Birthplace of Cable Sports National Historic District. But it is not known as a baseball hotbed except for the video highlight variety. At Bristol Eastern he was all-Connecticut and led his team with 9 home runs.
This led him to the Division II... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/05/10
17 Comments
G-Moneyball pointed out Brandon Wood as a cautionary tale on Nick Franklin, and buried in a 75-hour workweek, we asked if anybody cared to comp their K:BB:PA.
Matty did us the favor:
At 19, Brandon Wood K'ed 117 times and walked 46 times in 535 PA (478 AB)
That's a K/AB of 0.245, a K/BB of 2.54 and a BABIP of .293 (that's in A ball, where the league average BABIP is .335!)...he wasn't making real solid contact even when he did make contact.
Nick Franklin at age 19 fanned 120 times and walked 49 times in 556 PA (496 AB)
That's a K/AB of 0.242, a K/BB of 2.45 and a BABIP of .321 (in a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/03/10
28 Comments
=== Defense Below the Waterline? ===
We might bear in mind ... no manager in the game works more closely with his catchers than Mike Scioscia.
For those who just joined us, Scioscia was the Dodgers' catcher of the 1980's, caught Hershisher's 50-inning scoreless streak, etc etc, and from what Pitch tells us, reviews every AB with his catchers, to make sure their heads are in the game at all times.
There are a few sources in the game whose word in unimpeachable. One of those sources, is Mike Scioscia speaking of a catcher he has worked with. If Scioscia has issued a public announcement... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 09/02/10
Can't resist this:
The mythical Lumber King:
The actual Lumber King:
Posted by Spectator on 09/02/10
5 Comments
Justin and G's comments dovetail right with what I have been concluding:
1. Arlington ruins pitchers
2. Safeco ruins non-extraordinary RH hitters
3. A's never have enough money
4. LAAA suffers from no particular disability
THEREFORE, Mike Scioscia waltzes into the Hall of Fame on the backs of crippled foes who have never quite woken up to what is holding them back (overstatement for effect -- Scioscia is good).
Obviously, Texas has indeed begun to stockpile pitching from within, and it is paying off. But . . . Orel Hershiser was the pitching coach there and he made it clear -- it will... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/01/10
1 Comments
So good to hear from original 1995 STATS AOL roto ace Justynius, that we've got to return fire off his driveby:
Don't think Franklin can quite be grouped in the same talent class as Pineda/Ackley/Smoak, but do see him with the potential for an All-Star career similar to Mike Young or Stephen Drew. Not many SS's with 20+ HR power, double digit SB's, and the ability to hit for average despite high K's and moderately low BB's.
Pineda (rated top 5 SP), Ackley (#11 on 2010 list), and Smoak (#13 on 2010 list) are all undeniable Top 25 talents. Franklin is a Top 50, maybe a Top 25.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/01/10
30 Comments
=== HQ ===
The addition of Justin Smoak, along with Dustin Ackley's confirmaton as a franchise talent, has just recently sort of blown away the last shreds of bias as to whether the phrases "Seattle Mariners" and "loaded farm system" should ever go into the same sentence.
It's worth reminding that BaseballHQ's rankings -- last winter! -- warned the baseball world that the #1 hitting farm system in all of baseball, was Seattle's. HQ knew that before we did.
In Justynius' 12 candidates for the top 100, fully 11 of them are hitters... We like his punch line, "Ichiro could be the weak link... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/01/10
25 Comments
G-Money did the legwork for us, going back and checking on the youngest players to overmatch the hitter-unfriendly MWL in recent years. A sample of G's findings:
I thought so too about Bruce (that Franklin's topping of Bruce's exploits was provocative - Dr D). I'd like to say the MWL guys I picked weren't entirely random, but there weren't a lot of guys to choose from. It's a rare feat in the last half-dozen years. :)
Over .800 OPS in the MWL as a teen:
2005: Carlos Gonzalez (killing it for Colorado now as a 23 & 24 year old CF/OF)
2006: Bruce, Maybin
2007: Snider, Gerardo Parra (in... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 09/01/10
12 Comments
Nick Franklin hit his 22nd HR of the year last night, which ties the season record for the Clinton franchise -- set in 1961.
Reportedly he is the only player in the minors with 20+ HR, 20+ doubles and 20+ SB.
Unconfirmed internet reports say he is the first teenage SS to hit 20 bombs in A ball since some kid named Alex Rodriguez. Didn't take the time to check that out, but it's possible.
The always valuable G_Money says that one reason Franklin is underestimated is that he wears an oversized "Gazoo helmet" that makes him look much smaller than he is.
Edit: with the permission of the... Read More