July 2009
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/09
5 Comments
Ian Snell is on the 25-man roster, is joining the club now, and will start an M's game shortly.
Zduriencik, on KJR, emphasized that he hopes that Snell "is a change-of-scenery guy" and thinks that the M's staff has exactly the right people to get Snell's head right.
Doesn't want to stick his neck out on big predictions, but... the implications were clear (to me) that Zduriencik is looking for a jackpot here. Who can blame him. If we get the guy from 2006-07, that *is* a jackpot.
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Capt Jack was asked if it was tough to throw in the towel on the pennant race?
Reply: ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/09
14 Comments
Q. Washburn can't be having a career year. Research shows that contract years don't exist.
A. Well, maybe he isn't having a career year. That's just my guess. :- ) I wouldn't bet anything on it that I was afraid to lose.
But this point about false deduction is worth taking a minute.
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If the numbers show that the herd of cows, averaged, don't prefer clover to alfalfa, and that just as many cows prefer alfalfa ... we conclude that it cannot be the case that Bessie over there prefers clover?
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Just because the MLB universe shows 1.0 ---- > 1.2... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/09
9 Comments
Q. What's the scoop?
A. You tell me, Brainiacs. :- )
Usually the MC/DOV think tank is in the same league with anything around cyber-Seattle. In this case, you MC/DOVites were miles ahead of the curve.
Thanks for the outstanding posts!, mostly in the Washburn thread. Spec for the links and vids, G-Money for instantly sniffing out the trail to wisdom Olympus, and for the other fine posts.
Slap me silly, good stuff today.
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Q. Before you start, do you like the trade?
A. Oh yeah. And I cannot BELIEVE how fast Capt Jack is morphing this team. It's like watching Herzog or Gillick. He... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/09
13 Comments
=== It Ain't Over Till It's Over, Yogi ===
I've leaned against the Washburn trades BECAUSE I was assuming that you'd be getting back org thickener for Washburn.
I'm not gutpunching the 2009 Mariners to get a couple 21-year-olds who won't make our top 20 prospects.
The clubhouse has bought into your spiel. They've swallowed their pride and fallen into line. Now you're going to nod, satisfied at their submission, rear back, and deliver a thunderous kick to their coconuts?
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Plus, you get this offense going at all, and there's no rush to quit. Teams blow 7-8 game... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/09
6 Comments
By the time you read this, it will probably be dated :- ) but still...
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=== Expansion Draft City ===
Baker alerts us to Jon Heyman's report that the Yankees froze 5 young prospects* in expansion-draft style: Joba and Hughes, both loosely comparable to Brandon Morrow in terms of value; Romine and Montero (both catchers), and Austin Jackson, a 5-toolish AAA center fielder who is loosely in the Adam Jones mold.
John Sickels has only 3 hitters in his top 14 Yankee spects, and the Yankees pulled them all off the table. The reasoning is obvious: they've got a 15-man redundancy in their... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 07/30/09
17 Comments
As fans, we have a tendency to see what is right in front of us at any given time and to give a sort of progressive grade. We analyze each move and each decision in isolation and we fail to see the bigger picture sometimes. An example would be the worry in some sectors that we gave up too much pitching depth when we traded for Snell and Wilson, and I’ll explain what I mean further down. I think it is time we looked at the full organizational depth chart from September 30th, 2008 and from July 30th, 2009 to get a feel for the work Zduriencik has actually done to retool a team that went 61... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/09
14 Comments
=== VIEW COMMENTS Feature ===
Had everybody noticed? In the sidebar, under CONTENT, the View Comments link takes you to a "Hottest Groks" page that allows you to scan for new material in the threads.
It's more robust, though, with not only the author's ID but also a snippet from each post. Kudos to our heavy-duty developers. A legit platform for MC/DOV denizens? Vot next? Actual quality content?
=== San-Man Sez ===
[In reply to the Sagan thread] I mentioned before that much of my value in analysis for the Ms was due to NOT having the emotional attachment of fandom. (and as I feel... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/29/09
6 Comments
Q. Only 6 K's in 14 innings, but he looks invincible. How can that be?
A. On July 29th, RRS took the Jarrod Washburn Sounder Train To 21 Outs. Take out a sharpened #2 pencil, 'cause it's multiple choice time :- )
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Rowland-Smith got 21 outs, 4 by strikeout. Of the other 17 outs, how many were grounders?
1) 50%, same as his last game
2) 14
3) 3
4) I heard Dizzy Dean once got mad and told 7 fielders to sit down
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The answer, of course, is 3). Rowland-Smith induced 14 skied balls vs 3 grounders.
Jarrod Washburn has started 20 games, and except for one start... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/29/09
8 Comments
=== There are RLP's and then there are RLP's, Dept. ===
Mega-League20 champ Cool Papa Bell, justifably, chokes on my use of the term "replacement level player" in this fine post.
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1. As Papa notes, sabermetricians "formally" use "replacement-level player" to refer to a "freely available" player -- usually a AAAA journeyman -- that we assume to be easy to quickly pick up in an emergency.
Hot debates rage about how good this player actually is!, LOL, but the consensus is usually about -20 runs worse than an MLB-average player. -20 runs is the same as -2 wins in the standings... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/29/09
8 Comments
=== M's Sign Rich Poythress ===
As served up at the Bakery.
Poythress reminds me of Frank Thomas, not that I think he's that caliber of prospect naturally, but in several other things:
Short to the ball
Long, flowing, level followthru, top hand off, like Hurt
Chest you could throw a high school dance on
Thick waist and caboose
Dunn-like projectable power
Right-handed (?!) TTO player
Scouts tended to underline Frank's negatives, too
It sounds like Poythress held out until they threw in the AA assignment. In any case, he is champing at the bit to start as high as possible. That is guts, baby... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/29/09
24 Comments
Q. Is Clement a powerflush?
A. Cyber-Seattle reads Capt Jack as being eager to drive the Bavasi pets out to the pound, and adopt his own litter. ... and, in view of the fact that Capt Jack has, in fact, installed good chemistry overnight, he has every right to our support in this.
In many cases, notably Betancourt's, Putz' and Silva's, Capt Jack's moves could be construed as installing a new attitude.
But in Clement's? Jeff Clement is a MODEL keep-your-mouth-shut-do-everything-they-ask org spear carrier. No way in the world that Jeff Clement was dealt because of attitude. You might... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/09
Q. What do you make of Baker's hypothetical on trading Felix?
A. The usual sweet delivery out of da Bakery.
There's a lot to calculate there. More than could be "captured" with an algebraic equation. :- )
The argument against? Would begin with the fact that the 2010 season is important, more so than Geoffy allows for the sake of his argument (as he would tell you, also). ML orgs don't trade Felixes (Felices?) in Y-3.
And why is that?
They care too much about the pennant races during. 2010 is big. 2011 is a long, loooooong ways away.
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But! Geoffy beckons us... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/09
7 Comments
Q. Is it okay to keep rooting for the 2009 Mariners to close the gap?
A. I certainly am. I don't believe the M's are out of it. They've got little margin for error now, of course.
We were intrigued by Crusty Juggler's quote of Jason Churchill, to wit "Churchill wrote another reply that the names he's heard so far are not names a selling team would get. In a nutshell, that Zduriencik is BUYING and not selling."
Honestly, I don't get the rush to quit. :- ) It reminds me a little bit of being on campus and listening to the students demanding (from everybody!) a formal statement that... Read More
Posted by Cool Papa Bell on 07/25/09
8 Comments
The Mariners have finally made a major move, and it's with the intention of getting a sneak peak at the future. Wlad Balentien has been designated for assignment and certainly will be traded in order to make room for the Rainiers' best player, Michael Saunders.
The Skinny: Saunders is a 6'4", 205 pound outfielder who bats left-handed. He's 22 years old and in his fifth year of professional ball (fourth full season) after being drafted in the 11th round in 2005. He was rated the M's #2 prospect before the season by Baseball America.
The Fat: Defensively, Saunders has the speed and arm... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/25/09
12 Comments
Now, having stepped up onto our soapbox about the desire to quit, if down 12 points in the 3rd quarter of an NBA game...
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We WILL follow up by pointing out that if you are -12 to a very good team, with 8:00 left in Q3, that you are in a precarious position.
You have absolutely no right to quit if -12 with 8:00 left in Q3. But you DO realize that if you let them get on another run, it's going to be over. There is no margin for error in that situation.
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Two terrible performances have brought the count to -7.5 games, and that's not out of it,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/24/09
5 Comments
=== First, the Ballgame ===
0-9 is, I'm pretty sure, a forfeit score. Which is exactly what our offense is doing, in a lot of these games.
FORFEIT, n. Something surrendered as a penalty for a crime, offense, or breach of contract. "The Beaneaters did not show for Sunday's contest, causing a 9-0 score to be entered in favor of the Redlegs." ... "The Mariners forfeited Friday evening's tilt in consequence of a misunderstanding that pitching and defense were the keys to baseball." ;- )
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It's the 7th -- six full innings gone -- and the score is 1-0 again. I'm... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/24/09
10 Comments
=== The Pennant Race ===
On KIRO radio today, an amigo axed, "What if you don't sell, and you go down to the wire, and don't win the division? Then you've lost everything!"
Um, no. I had a pennant race. I had that day on August 17th when Felix fired a shutout to pull us within three. I had weeks, or months, of baseball entertainment.
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The right paradigm is not, "If you don't win the division, it was a wasted season." The right paradigm is, "If you weren't in the fight, it was a wasted season."
Again, think of an Olympic 1500 meter race. You're four strides back... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/09
2 Comments
=== Tracer ===
AFLAC question of the day was: who "stole for the cycle" three times in 1909. I don't know whether they actually superimposed the question over a TV shot of the glorious "bronze" statue of Ty Cobb in the stadium. They might have separated the shots by a minute or two.
They don't work real hard to stump you, which is good, because they'll tell you before you've read the question. It's like Hermoine was teaching potion class, asking the question and then raising her hand as high as possible, hopping up to get the fingers a bit higher into the air...
Story I remember from a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/21/09
33 Comments
Larry Stone with an astute article at the Times, interpreting (surely with accuracy) Wakamatsu's remarks as being the death knell. If he's gone this time, D-O-V figures he's "Gone" gone. As a starter.
Within reason, of course. Unless the script goes horribly wrong. What we mean is: we reckon that the Mariners have seen what they needed to see.
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Being as D-O-V has nothing against calling E-6 on itself when needed, we trust you won't mind our noting an RBI when we scrounge one, either :- ) At the time the Mariners TRADED for Olson, we warned that the AAAA findings had been logged, banked... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/21/09
12 Comments
Interesting thread started by BKafflen at Mariner Central on Marco Scutaro.
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Q. Who is this guy? I think I had him on my roto team for a month in 1998.
A. As opposed to Jack Wilson, he hits a little more, fields a little less, and will take a dime instead of a dollar.
Jack Zduriencik's interest in Scutaro is, appropriately, the same as your roto team's interest in him. He's a "steady Eddie" shortstop who fills in when the Grim Reaper has left your roster on life support.
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Q. The Jays get Type A compensation for Scutaro if they just keep him and let him walk this winter. That means... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/21/09
2 Comments
Enri with a fair question in the 14-In-A-Row comments:
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=== Q ===
Generally, I'm entirely with you, Doc, on the value of Erikkkk. I still fantasize about Felix-Erik winning postseason series for us this year.
But in all fairness, isn't it time for you to own up to the fact that Bedard is more fragile than average. Your long time contention that he pitches if it matters, and babies himself only if the season is lost, seems to have been disproven by the timing of his latest trip to the DL.
How would you know you were wrong on Bedard's health forecast?
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=== A ===
The way I would know I was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/19/09
6 Comments
=== John Benson Dept. ===
So Bedard has now started 14 games and allowed more than 3 runs in ... 0 of them.
Benson's paradigm is to compare a set of (say) 10 starting pitchers by asking, "What was the WORST recent year each pitcher had?" The pitcher with the best WORST year :- ) may be the toughest pitcher, and the best bet.
NObody is a tough matchup EVERY start. Except Bedard, I guess.
Jarrod Washburn, who is #5 in ERA in the American League, has given up 6 earnies on two different occasions and 4 earnies on three other occasions. The next time Bedard gives up 4 earnies will be his first... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/09
18 Comments
=== AL / NL Gap ===
Taro links us up to an article that correlates the gap between the AL and NL to that of a 93-69 season.
The author, at Driveline Mechanics, doesn't have a lot of moving parts in the machinery of his thinking, and so provides some very sound logic. He just adds up the runs scored by the AL (6,300+) and by the NL (5,400+), over the 600-odd games played the last 5 years, and then applies James' Pythagorean Theorem* to estimate "deserved" wins and losses.
The "deserved" wins are 93 per 162 games, whereas the actual wins were 92 per 162. Another little piece of evidence... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/09
12 Comments
NAH-NAH NAH, nah-nah, nana-NAH!
Though we don't want to appear (overly) narcissistic, there *are* times when it is useful for Dr. D to remind his fellow bleacherites that D-O-V is not a safe haven for pollyanna thinking...
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This Mariner Central reply shows the turning point in the JJ-Malaysia / Dr Detecto postal chess match.
JJ is a master-strength postal player when analyzing while moving the pieces. Notwithstanding, he had played an overly-optimistic opening, leaving a Swiss cheese of dark squares in his center and queenside, after Black had repulsed the initial offensive.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/14/09
25 Comments
At Mariner Central, an entertaining discussion is in flow as to the different paradigms by which we enjoy, and analyze, baseball.
One thing's for sure: we all, especially me, tend to analyze baseball play that we *like* as being the *more efficient* way to play baseball. Ever notice how everybody's favorite rock band is also the greatest rock band? :- ) Same with me, that being Boston...
Kelly triangulates us by pointing out that D-O-V is biased towards "greatness." Spot on, mate.
Pardon us if we try to reduce the triangle further...
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=== Steady Eddies Dept. ===
Many a roto... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/13/09
3 Comments
Roto Champ Taro with a fascinating kibitz in the comments. He's amused that considering how often USSM and D-O-V take opposite sides of debates, that usually we're on the high side and they on the low side. I'm amused at his amusement. ;- )
I don't disagree too vehemently. One thing that is interesting, though, is that when D-O-V sells a player high it's taken to be part of the script, whereas when we caution on a player, it might not get the same traction. D-O-V is pegged as the cheery website.
I don't really disagree, LOL, and it reflects a flaw in my personality outside baseball... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/13/09
4 Comments
An interesting debate now runs ...
(1) this ballclub's record is actually worse in Bedard and Washburn starts than in other games, so (2) if you want to contend, don't you fret yourself about shedding Bedard and Washburn. Not even if it's for minor-league "thickener."
It's 1975 calling. They want their almanacs back. Hey, Freddy Norman went 4-12 for us; let's ship him to the Reds...
Bedard (5-2) and Washburn (6-6) have modest records because they've battled low-scoring games to a draw. They've gone .500 in the games we've scored 2 runs, leaving the other guys free to win when we score... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/13/09
5 Comments
Debate at Mariner Central as to whether Jason Vargas' success, in 11 starts, implies that now we're okay to put Ryan Rowland-Smith's minus fastball in there. Does Vargas' high-wire act lead to any generalized conclusions as to whether journeyman LHP's can succeed without good stuff?
Know that nobody asked me, but if anybody did ... :- ) No. Vargas' highwire act doesn't mean that we now want to start betting on LHP's with minus fastballs.
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1) Fangraphs has Vargas' fastball at 87.9 mph, so averaging 88 up from the 86-87 he debuted at, and when he wants to challenge he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/11/09
7 Comments
Our teenagers didn't want to come to the park tonight. Jenny because she already went to a game this month, and John because he was buried in Guitar Hero. Threw a $20 on the kitchen table and told them to hit the Godfather's buffet.
Came home to found out that Jenny had gone $12 for sushi and that John was still buried in video, not having had dinner. Sighhhhh...
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Cindy is the kind of wife who will drop me at the corner, wheel off to go get parking, and let me walk up to get the tickets. It was indulgence night, so I was going to surprise my girl.
All-Star Club is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/11/09
5 Comments
GL with a fair question:
+++ Idiotic mechanical musings here...
I wonder if locking the front leg allows a pitcher to get more leverage on the latter part of delivery, and thus to throw harder. Also I would image that keeping the knee bent requires more strength in that leg. My thinking is this is why tall pitchers (or any pitcher) might get used to doing it, it gives you a couple mph. When you don't need as much control in the lower tiers, the velocity makes you good...
But when you look for it and see it, it really does look like a problem and you can see where it would sap any efforts... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 07/10/09
5 Comments
This is going to be a short article, but, as I am once again tracking PythagenMatt for the AL West race I thought I would offer up that information here so you guys know where we are as we approach the end of the first half.
After 86 games, the Mariners stand at 44-42, 4.5 back in the AL West. I've tallied up the single game pythag figures and arrived at some rather bearish conclusions.
First a reminder. The PythagenPat W% estimator tool is a two-step formula following this format:
W% = RS^X / (RS^X + RA^X)
X = ((RS + RA) / G)^0.285
I've co-opted that formula and used it to rate single-game... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/10/09
8 Comments
Only have a second here, but do have a vid, so:
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=== Most-Comparable Dept. ===
Could be viewed as a rough comparable, value-wise, for Chris Tillman. Probably even a little more valuable.
(*Speaking in terms of where Tillman was at when he was in our system, naturally. In 2009, Tillman has made nice gains and is of course well ahead of where Cortes is, at the moment.
I wouldn't give you Tillman for Cortes as we speak, no. But Cortes more-or-less replaces the commodity we had going in Tillman when he was coming up through the system. )
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=== Pedigree ===
Was BBA's #90 overall pick coming... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/09
4 Comments
=== EYE RATIO ===
How many walks per strikeout for Senor Sanchez?
Age 27 - 0.75
Age 28 - 0.60
Age 29 - 0.42
Age 30 - 0.30
Age 31 - this year (TBD)
This is a player that, in a roto Keeper league, I would be V-E-R-Y careful about trading for.
A few facts, per Shandler at baseballhq.com:
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=== EYE as Leading Indicator for AVG ===
(1) Of all .300 hitters, those with eye ratios >1.0 have a 65% chance of repeating. Those with ratios
(2) Only 4% of sub-.250 hitters with eye ratios less than 0.50 will hit .300 the following year. (How about those at .30?)
(3) In a 1995-2000 study, only 37... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/09
8 Comments
When news of Betancourt's death proved to be unexaggerated, we opined at D-O-V that this must mean a deal for a SS was in the works.
Personally think it's clear that Ronny Cedeno is not an acceptable AL shortstop, and my suspicion is that Zduriencik would almost certainly agree with this. Betancourt, however frustrated we are with him, *is* an acceptable AL shortstop and you wouldn't powerflush him unless you had an upgrade.
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Q. Is he really that GOOD with the glove?
A. All the Pirates' fans agree that he's the real deal out there. Just as one example, Tango's poll consistently gives... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/09
2 Comments
=== Mr. Made for TV ===
Was Inside Pitch's nickname for the 2nd-year ARod, but now in a better sense might tag Mr. Gutierrez... :- )
In 1995, Wetteland fired that 95 heater in to Edgar with the bases loaded. Our old STATS-AOL pal Steve22, a semipro catcher and Yankee fan, said that he threw his beverage can at the TV when the ball was in midflight.
Edgar unloaded, Musburger (?) said "DEEP TO CENTER!" and then they gave us a full 120 seconds of silence as the TV cut back-and-forth between the M's, Yankees', and fans' reactions. Moments like that remind you that you're not just passing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/09
Q. You seriously think the Mariners would ever be players here?
A. No more than you do. :- )
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Q. What is the argument in favor of?
A. One word: Dynasty.
Consider all the teams that have ever fought for dynasties based on awesome rotations, such as the Cone-Duque-Pettite Yankees ... the Clemens-Mussina-Pettite Yankees ... the Schilling-Pedro (Beckett-DiceK) Red Sox ... the Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine Braves ... the Koufax-Drysdale-Osteen Dodgers ... the Unit-Schilling Diamondbacks... hey, even the cash-poor Oakland A's had a terrific run with Hudson, Zito and Mulder, despite having a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/09
Q. But Halladay actually WON'T give you a net performance profit on his salary like Wood is going to, right?
A. Right.
Apparently, you have to win a couple of roto championships to understand why VORP/$ is not the goal at all 25 roster slots.
You use overperforming Scrubs IN THE BOTTOM 12 SLOTS OF YOUR ROSTER *so that* you can use your $260 to pack megatonnage into your top 6-8 slots.
You don't leave $100 on the table, go .500 for $160, and call it good. Value players are a means to an end, NOT an end in themselves!
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Neither do you spend max $11 on your top player and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/09
8 Comments
You might want to make sure you're sitting down :- )
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Q. Coming around on Gutierrez' bat at all?
A. I am!
The fact that Gutierrez hit ANOTHER 422-foot bomb on Tuesday served as Dr. D's wakeup call. That ball was crushed Buhner-style, and Franklin did it effortlessly, and it was not the first time.
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As you know, we've always admired Gutierrez' swing: it's quiet, no extra moving parts ... it's very torque-y ... the body control and weight movement, the swing itself has always been star-potential.
We thought he had a chance to be Mike Cameron without the speed, but it is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/09
6 Comments
Q: So now you think that Curtis Granderson, Mike Cameron and Franklin Gutierrez are the New MVP?
A. No, but I do think that impact defensive players who can hold their own with the bat ... those are players you can win a pennant with.
Since the year 1900, managers have intuited that you can win with no-stick, great-glove players at four positions: C, SS, 2B and CF.
Shortstop and second base get 5 outs* per game. Center field gets 3. These guys are in the middle of the action. They get lots of chances to change games.
You don't have to be Ozzie Smith or Willie Mays to win a game with... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/09
12 Comments
Funny thread at Mariner Central on "flipper" the curve ball. Who knew that Jarrod Washburn was going to wheel out a David Wells hook in his old age. :- )
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Q. What in the WORLD is Jarrod Washburn doing differently?! Come ON!
A. First of all, understand this: if you say any of the following things, you're (pretty much) saying all the other things.
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"Jarrod Washburn is doing X differently now"
"I predict that Jarrod Washburn will continue to pitch about this well"
"Jarrod Washburn has evolved from 'Mediocre' to 'Excellent' "
"His being LH in Safeco, and his being so... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/09
5 Comments
Q. What do you predict going forward?
A. His FIP is 3.91, not 3.08 like his ERA is, but 3.91 is awfully good. It would make him the #16 starter in the AL.
And FIP, in this case, undersells Washburn. (For those who just joined us, FIP attempts to project an ERA if fielding didn't matter, park didn't matter and if an "average" percentage of outfield fly balls became home runs.)
Washburn is (1) a 3.91 FIP which is already a #3 starter on a playoff team, *plus* he is (2) a lefty throwing into Safeco's deep left field, *plus* he is (3) a fly ballpitcher in front of a great outfield, *plus* he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/09
10 Comments
=== CERA in a Vacuum ===
In a vacuum, you wouldn't use "catcher ERA" as the sole basis of any important decisions.
Over one year, even over two years, you might very well see "noise" create a low CERA for your inferior catcher and a high CERA for your better catcher. The "noise" can include tons of things -- which catcher drew better-hitting lineups, which catcher lucked into a better BABIP, which catcher drew which pitchers facing which "favorite" lineups, etc.
Did your backup catcher get Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn when they were facing lineups with 5 lefties in them? CERA doesn... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/09
6 Comments
=== Deep Blue Can Play Chess, But It Can't Play Hockey ===
There isn't any way in the world to use math, or science, to answer the question "How good a defensive catcher IS Rob Johnson, anyway?!" We don't even know how good a catcher Johnny Bench was, and we have a little more than 62 games to go on.
The world is complicated. A computer cannot "capture" an equation with literally 1,000's of variables. The right tool for hockey playing is human intuition, not mathematical formulas.
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=== My Intuition Being... ===
No better than anybody else's. :- ) But this is SSI, so here's what my... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 07/05/09
8 Comments
When I was a boy, I spent many years dealing with frustration over what most of the kids in my age group foud appealling. The folks that were popular always seemed shallow, cruel, uninteresting or worse. Everything turns into a popularity contest when you're 12, and for those of us (myself included) who were never winnners at that game as kids, the sting is with us always. That's why I've spent so many hours arguing with Yankee fans about Jeter's defense. As one prominent sabermetrician (as Dr. D likes to call us, saber-dweebs aren't generally the popular kids in school...LOL) put it,... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 07/04/09
11 Comments
Let's rewind to late January when the Mariners made a big splash trade, the particulars of which look like this:
Mets Receive:
J.J. Putz (CL)
Sean Green (SR)
Jeremy Reed (OF)
Indians Receive:
Joe Smith (SR)
Luis Valbuena (2B)
Cubs Receive:
Aaron Heilman (SR)
Mariners Receive:
Franklin Gutierrez (CF)
Endy Chavez (OF)
Mike Carp (1B)
Ronny Cedeno (MIF)
Jason Vargas (SP)
Garrett Olson (SP)
Maikel Cleto (SP)
Zeke Carrera (OF)
We can argue about what Putz' market value was perceived as prior to this trade, but I don't think we have all of the information to know that for sure. We do know that we... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/09
5 Comments
Shandler wrote, going into the season, "If he were 22 with that second-half power spike, we'd be interested. At 29, what we see is his peak flying by."
Langerhans' game in the past, his "skill set," has been that of a do-everything-and-do-nothing-well outfielder, a swiss army knife, a la Jeremy Reed. This is precisely the skill set that Dr. D, educated at the virtual feet of Earl Weaver, is so biased against. Such players make life *convenient,* but give you little opportunity to leverage the game. Specialized skills -- the stolen base, the gold glove, the platoon stick -- those guys... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/09
2 Comments
=== Sizzlers: Capt. Jack ===
The man's scouting eye commands serious respect.
Whether Jason Vargas goes into a power dive from here or whether he doesn't, it is obvious that Zduriencik called this one right. Vargas was not even the primary player in the Putz deal, just a waiver-wire pickup so to speak, but you can see the moxie and bulldog mound presence that made Vargas a worthy gamble.
Mike Carp, also, needs approximately five pitches to show you that he *works* the strike zone. He's got Alvin Davis-like presence in the box and obvious projectable power.
We all liked Russ Branyan. But... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/09
40 Comments
One amigo has a quick snapshot below in which, at first glance, he doesn't see much correlation between track speed and the UZR table.
Which is fine as far as it goes. :- ) I'm sure you could ID the problems, as well as I could, with referring to that as a controlled study.
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=== Inkblot Tests ===
Not wishing to be snippy :- ) I would almost call this the defining test of whether we've let our slide rules blot out the sun on us. If you don't think that running fast is important in a baseball outfield, you have never worn cleats, end of story.
It's like saying it's not important to be tall... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/09
4 Comments
=== F-Goot Once More ===
:- ) You can't stop Taro, you can only hope to contain him. Comments threads with the daily tug-on-the-shirt as to whether I think Gutierrez is great. LOL.
Again: ... if Gutierrez can hit for a 110 OPS+, give or take, then considering that he plays in the middle of the field, and considering he's considerably BTA at that position, then he's a minor star. No argument.
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His BABIP is .335 this year; his eye ratio is still bad; in Safeco he looks like warning-track power to me; and he's mediocre at best on the basepaths. Don't try to sell me a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/01/09
18 Comments
When you think the rest of the world is crazy, it's time to start worrying about yourself :- ) but...
Roto-Champ Taro demands that Dr. D admit he's wrong about F-Gut. Here's my last statement on Franklin Gutierrez. (Famous last words!)
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First thing Taro m'man: you're picking a little uptick in his offense ... he spikes up to 99 for a second and BOOM "it's time you admit you were wrong". That's point A.
Let's see whether Gutierrez ever posts the 110-120 OPS+ seasons that Cammy did in Seattle -- let's see Gutierrez put a 109 and 123 OPS+ IN THE BANK -- and then I will... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/01/09
1 Comments
=== Morrow June 30 ===
D-O-V's keys for Morrow have been (1) finish out in front, and (2) throw smoothly rather than muscling up. We'd rather see a 94 first-pitch strike than a 96 first-pitch ball.
This was -- coincidentally -- *precisely* what Morrow did against the Yankees: his FB velo dropped from 95.3 to 94.3, but he threw 65% of all fastballs for strikes. He finished nose-to-leather and, for one game, completely solved the issue of control.
We also recommend the "First Tee 3-Iron" strategy: throw 94 smoothly the first inning or two, and air it out as he gets into his rhythm on holes... Read More