June 2009
Posted by jemanji on 06/28/09
8 Comments
The Mariners lost Endy Chavez, so they went out and replaced him with Jeremy Reed. A shade the better, a shade the worse, no complaints no worries.
Langerhans is:
(1) a "tweener" outfielder who can back up fine in CF or
(2) play a plus defensive corner OF; he
(3) hits lefthanded and
(4) if he helps a little offensively, it will be with a bit of OBP as opposed to a bit of power.
He's 5) nearing 30.
Ryan Langerhans *is* Jeremy Reed. How good would you feel, or not, about Jeremy Reed moving back into the OF line in the org? That's where we're at with Langerhans.
You don't really want... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/28/09
10 Comments
.
=== Vargas, #5SP ===
Lest anybody get the false impression that we're slow to give credit, where credit is actually due... let us remind you that Jason Vargas was a *throwin* on the Putz deal.
Vargas surprised the M's as much as anybody -- or he'd have been a feature piece of the deal -- but still, Capt Jack was the one who picked Jason Vargas out of a lineup and said, "let's try THIS guy."
Roto champs can relate to that: they're just better at rolling the dice and getting box cars. Capt Jack's call on Jason Vargas, that's big-time GM'ing, the type of talent judgment that can and does... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/27/09
5 Comments
As you might recall, on May 19th, Felix opened the game with 16 straight fastballs to the Anaheim Angels, who pounded him for 6 runs on 11 hits.
After the game, Don Wakamatsu said he didn't think Felix' head was in the game, specifically said that Felix' effort "comes and goes" quote-unquote, and challenged him (in essence) to grow up.
After the game, Felix shrugged and denied that he'd given any subpar effort, and stated that there was nothing whatsoever wrong with his performance.
After the game, Dr. D once again wrote that nobody, not even King Felix, can just go out and heave the ball... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/26/09
21 Comments
=== Franklin Gutierrez ===
M's broadcasts continue to show that Gutierrez has a marvelous zone rating. It's cool to see the M's sabermetric team linked up with the face of the franchise up there in the broadcast booth.
How does this happen? Typically, the saber employees sit in meetings with Tony Blengino, to whom they have full access on a day-to-day basis. If it's a typical white-collar enviornment, you as a saber employee can talk to Blengino just like you talk to the guy in the cubicle next to you, though when you do get Blengino, it's usually in a small, casual committee, or perhaps... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/26/09
8 Comments
=== Wade LeBlanc, Pros vs Joes ===
That might very well have been the weakest inning I've ever seen thrown in the majors.
The one that Johnson (?) lined for a bases-clearing double was 83, up, and outside third of the plate for an "out-and-over-the-plate" error -- a true batting-practice pitch.
You can't possibly invite a 'tater any more generously than that. If you threw slower, it would wreck the hitter's timing. 83 out-and-over, coming from LeBlanc's lefty angle, is the dream pitch. There's no such thing as worse pitches than some that LeBlanc threw.
If he wants to be Jamie Moyer... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/25/09
3 Comments
=== Dr's Prognosis ===
First five pitches against the Padres, Morrow finished "out in front" on four of them and pulled off one of them. My 17-year-old son, a pitcher, was sitting on the couch. Reality check, babe. I slo-mo'ed it.
[Good pitch] "Does that look like he's finishing out in front to you?" (With the front side of his head traveling towards the plate on followthrough, and his right elbow closer to the catcher and away from his body, rather than closer to 1B and tight against his body.)
[Bad pitch] "But does that one look like his head drifted over to 1B?" ..."Obviously, dad... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/25/09
2 Comments
As it happens, I had been doing some updates on some of my favorites, many of whom you mention.
Triunfel: not just out for the year, but Churchill says he may DH all of next year to protect his ankle. Not good.
Saunders, May: 99 AB, 5 HR, 11 BB, 34 H, 1.023 OPS
Saunders, June: 74 AB, 3 HR, 11 BB, 14 H, .639 OPS. Power and patience still showing, despite struggles, which I take as a good sign.
Clement: also struggling in June, and striking out more this year. He may be running out of patience with AAA?
Ackley in Omaha: 8-for-16 in 3 games. Commentators raved. It was noted that most of his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/24/09
10 Comments
One thing that we fans *consistently* do is assume that if a name doesn't look glittery to us, then the player doesn't have much value to other GM's.
To us, if a guy hasn't been on the Baseball America org top-10 for MULTIPLE years, then Theo Epstein and Kevin Towers don't know who they are.
That's just not the case. Who in Seattle had ever heard of Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, or John Halama before Houston used them to acquire Randy Johnson? Carlos Guillen's name hadn't come up a single time anywhere on the internet that I ever found -- but after the fact, we discovered that he was a 5-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/09
14 Comments
=== The Bakery ===
Geoff axs, are the M's lucky to be contending, or not?
They are not, no.
The Mariners have great pitching and a terrible offense: they are a .500 team. Baseball Prospectus W2/L2 stat is based on EQR and EQRA -- expected runs based on bases gained and bases lost -- crossed with the Pythagenport Theorem that gives expected wins based on runs gained and lost.
W2/L2 has the Mariners at 34-34.
..................
The Mariners' "luck," if you will, consists of the broader fact that they play in a division with no powerful team. Are you "lucky" to be in the National League or... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/20/09
4 Comments
=== Could We Not Chop-Block THIS Glove Man, Please ===
F-Goot, the night after Endy's horrific injury, played "500 Popup" with Frenchy again. Both men were literally fighting for the ball until Betancourt came away with it and looked back, at which point Gutierrez pulled off of it.
I was amused to see him swing his left leg back and forth in the air after the play, as though subconsciously making sure that a Great White hadn't taken it off.
Matty didn't appreciate the play. Silentpadna, like Spock, then throws a temper tantrum comprised of raising his eyebrow.
.
=== Wind In Yer Sails, Dept... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/20/09
23 Comments
=== Baseball Gettin' Fun Dept. ===
So the M's are 34-34 and the Rangers, as predicted here, are finding their level. Only 3.5 back. That's one series.
Care to guess what the M's were last year after 68 games?
24-44. That's -20 games below .500.
Kudos to Capt Jack and Wok for giving us an exciting ballclub in their very first years (here, or anywhere).
.
=== Group Hallucination Dept. ===
I'd like for it to be fun next, year, too, which is why I keep thinking about Erik Bedard's next contract.
At our fave hangout MC, we find continual amusement in the fact that ALL of the writers... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/20/09
3 Comments
Turns out Endy is really hurt bad. What a shame. We all feel terrible.
Blowers, on TV, advised us that it's the kind of play where the LF doesn't *know* whether he's going to get to the ball, and so he can't afford to call the SS off. If you as an OF call the SS off, and he holds up, and the ball drops on the grass, and he looks at you having been able to make the play, well .... you can't do that. And you never see that.
Betancourt, of course, has to try to make the catch until he gets called off, and even then there's a "point of no return" on the call.
Just one of those things that are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/09
12 Comments
Roto champ Taro-san sez:
..............
How about JJ Hardy Doc? It might be the PERFECT time to buy low on him with Yunel Escobar breathin over his shoulders and the slow start offensively.
I don't necesarily think that the bat is going to translate at Safeco in the AL, but all we're asking for is a 700-750 OPS with tremendous defense. Isn't that what a lot of people were fantasizing about with Betancourt?
If we're in buying mode, Hardy is a SERIOUS upgrade over Yuni. We're talking 4.5-5 wins or so over a full season. He could be our Gutierrez at at an even more valuable position... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/09
5 Comments
Flip: The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak, as good-guy Ronny rips along at .132/.185/.250.
25 strikeouts and 4 walks, despite the cut-down swing, has the ref stepping in for another standing 8-count. Stop da fight.
The Mariners just claimed an infielder off waivers.
Chop: You might get a chuckle out of this Jan. 28 SSI take on the Aaron Heilman trade. Heilman was dealt for "just the kind of player the Mariners should be acquiring." Definitely, if your goal is to get relegated so that you can stomp the league below yours.
D-O-V's position, day of trade, was that Cedeno was a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/09
4 Comments
NOW do you get it? :- )
....................
A picture's worth 1,000 words. Hopefully this episode will give everybody a FEEL for Erik Bedard's m.o., and hopefully that means we can all relax and enjoy the artwork.
Dr. D gets plenty of them wrong; in spring training this year Matty whooped me in a debate about whether the bullpen would be effective. It looked like a train wreck in waiting to me, but Wakamatsu has coaxed effectiveness out of every blinkin' one of those pokeys, so I was totally wrong on what would happen in the last three innings of the game.
So hopefully you'll indulge... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/18/09
Q. How'd he throw?
A. He was tight in the first inning or two, not only all over the place, but seeming unable to really drive a fastball. After about 40 pitches, he not only spotted the ball a bit better, but started flinging those high-90's fastballs in there.
It underlines the fact that Morrow simply hasn't thrown much this year. Going into the Colorado start, he'd thrown all of 18 innings this entire season -- April, May, and half of June. Jarrod Washburn threw 30 innings -- in spring training.
I think you have to take into account that you have a young guy who hasn't pitched himself... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/18/09
10 Comments
Q. What are the costs to THE SEATTLE MARINERS if they keep Brandon Morrow in Safeco Field?
A. Overall, not much. Morrow isn't replacing Felix Hernandez in the rotation. He's replacing whoever the #5 starter is. I'd rather have Morrow start, right now, than Garrett Olson.
I'm not talking about comparing past results on Olson vs Morrow vs RRS. I'm talking about what I expect from each pitcher going forward. I'd rather have Morrow.
.................
Of course, you have potential pressure on the bullpen. Thus far, "pressure on the bullpen" is a cliche. In practical terms, the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/18/09
13 Comments
To paraphrase an old joke about the Brooklyn Dodgers, if we have the right team. *Washington Senators, as Spec points out below. :- )
.
=== SIZZLER: M's Pennant Chances ===
Was surprised to read a bunch of panicky "are they out of it?!" shtick after the M's lost three in Colorado.
Hey, look. Sometimes you run into a hot team, kiddies! If, the last week or so, Troy Tulowitzki is slugging .765, then for that particular week you might as well be facing Lou Gehrig. If Chris Ianetta is .300/.500/.700 the last ten days, then in the games you're facing him, you might as well be pitching... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/18/09
6 Comments
Dr. D smiled wryly when Mike Carp moved to the head of the Cheney line and pole-vaulted senior Rainiers into Safeco Field. Well, who can blame Capt. Jack. He's bringing in his own crew and he's enthused. More power to him.
.
=== What, Me Worry Dept. ===
Some guys just have It, as Silentpadna says.
We remember Alvin Davis being called up from AA baseball to the big leagues in (?) 1984. Funny thing about Alvin, he was completely, totally comfortable in his very first game as a big leaguer. We were sitting in the third deck, 1B side, watching the rook (hit #6 IIRC), and had a perfect... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/18/09
5 Comments
Flip: Geoff Baker with an interesting report on Erik Bedard's shoulder.
Chop: We may be getting a bit pollyanna here :- ) and if it turns out that Bedard's shoulder is Top Ramen at this point, fine, I'll cheerfully own up to a mis-read.
But my own cornball D-O-V translation of Capt Jack's and Wok's quotes are that they are classic "Sigh, roll your eyes, Erik being Erik" quotes. When Wok says
"he felt a little stiffiness in there and didn't like what he felt. It's one of those things, you don't know how he feels,"
that is what we've heard coaches say for 35 years when they're wishing a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/12/09
6 Comments
Q: Maybe trading Bedard isn't the best thing. If he would take a 3/$27M deal, that might be better.
A: Would agree that trading Bedard isn't the best thing. You got that right, hombre.
One thing, though:
2006 - $18.4m
2007 - $22.2m
2009 - $21.3m (prorated)
Those are the salaries that Erik Bedard EARNED in those seasons, per fangraphs. It would be nice if we could get $20m players for $9m, sure, but... .
.............
Q. But Bedard isn't guaranteed to pitch 200 innings. He's fragile.
A. Read the last two sentences again. $18.4 and $22.2 are what Bedard actually EARNED in 2006 and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/12/09
5 Comments
Q. His swinging strike rate is down.
A. Are his strikeouts?
The modern trend to get more and more hair-fine about HOW a pitcher gets his strikes is very interesting. But if a guy is getting 9K's a game and guys are swinging less, then they're freezing and locking up more. So what?
.
Q. You're honestly not worried that he's getting fewer swinging strikes?
A. Watch a ballgame. YOU tell ME what you think of his stuff. He's sicker than ever.
What I mean by that statement is this: Erik Bedard is throwing more vicious pitches than he ever has in his life. No. I'm NOT concerned that he'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/11/09
17 Comments
M's with an incredible streak of 8 straight games with >4 runs allowed. This was pointed out by Geoff Baker. What is this, Dodger Stadium 1965? :- )
The 1965 Dodgers had Koufax, Drysdale, Claude Osteen (?) and some other guy in a FOUR-man rotation. Bet you that it wasn't so often that THEY had 8-game runs of perfect pitching. :- ) Maybe somebody wants to go check it out?
Matty frets that the 8-game streak will go down in flames, since a non-ML-quality starter takes the mound tonight. I too suffer the trembling knees. After all, that's why teams don't get 10 great starts in a row... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/11/09
2 Comments
Ken Griffey Jr. is another example of the power of the lefty walk in Safeco Field. Absolutely everything that can go wrong has gone wrong for Junior, including his .225 BABIP. He is hitting in the worst-case scenario -- providing the worst offensive season we could have predicted.
And in that worst-case scenario, he is improving the team, because he is its 3rd-best hitter. That is just how important the walk is, in Safeco Field.
If you are GM'ing in Safeco Field, two things should be important to you, contextually: 1) get strikeout pitchers. 2) get hitters who walk. Preferably... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/11/09
8 Comments
Debate still rages over Russell Branyan, whether he has proven that he is legit, and whether he "solves" Safeco Field. Let the debate end.
D-O-V doesn't know whether "solved" is the right characterization :- ) because there is no "solution" to the conditions that Safeco creates...
However, any player who BB's a lot -- that player is going to render field conditions IRRELEVANT (for those plate appearances).
Any left-handed hitter who (1) gets the ball real high and (2) is strong, is going to hit HR's in Safeco at a NON-PENALIZED rate. Branyan doesn't hit extra homers at Safeco. It's that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/09
6 Comments
SABRMatt sez,
+++++ Yuniesky Betancourt is getting a great opportunity to watch a far less talented middle infielder take his job. And his reaction? He doesn't show up for batting practice, take ground balls, or listen to his coaches at all...he pouts, makes cheap excuses, and boycotts his own life to get back at the boss for benching him.
You know what we call a guy like that? UNEMPLOYED
Betancourt is about to get his butt sent to A ball...and it's a short hop from there to the waiver wire. +++++
C-Points. :- )
The amazing thing to me, is how the other 24 Mariners have been both... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/09/09
4 Comments
Jack Zduriencik and their team are proven grandmasters of the amateur-draft chess game. I ain't. I ain't even *interested* in amateur players, much less knowledgeable about them.
So this is chat, not analysis, and it's offered in the spirit of a Class-C hack trying to kibitz the play of Yasser Seirawan in the skittles room. Hey, what's a blog for?
.
=== QUICK PENNANT, JUST ADD WATER Dept. ===
When I was a kid, the Red Sox instantly became terrific when they suddenly added two Rookies of the Year* at once. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/1975.shtml
JIM RICE debut'ed in 1975... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/09/09
I believe that he has very little chance of being moved to the bullpen, and for that alone, I am ready to kiss Capt. Jack on the forehead. A #2 draft pick who will make an impact. Vot next?
Capt Jack has, apparently, already ruled him out of the middle infield, despite his college coach's judgment that Ackley would be a "great" second baseman. There are huge advantages, and huge disadvantages, to this.
The huge-st disadvantage is that in Seattle, CF and RF are nailed down for five years, at least in the M's view. And now you're going to use your one "Chance" slot on the Yahtzee card.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/09/09
5 Comments
I study nuclear science
I love my classes
I got a crazy teacher
He wears dark glasses
Things are goin' great
and they're only gettin' better
I'm doin' all right
Gettin' good grades
The future's so bright
I gotta wear shaaaaaades
...................
Sometimes the computer hits you with a shot of seratonin better than any double-scoop of Pralines & Cream could. Sat down just now and read that Brandon Morrow wants to start. Beatifically walked out into the living room. Raised my arms in a Y like Terence doing a Yes Man seminar, threw the head back, beamed for five seconds... my son:... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/09/09
4 Comments
As you know, D-O-V is in favor of giving the cake a chance to bake. Prospect after prospect, we jazz all smooth about his callup, and then give him sixteen AB's to prove he's the real deal.
To me, that's almost the definition of talent judgment, though -- an Earl Weaver or Lou Piniella or Theo Epstein Pat Gillick can point his finger at a player and say, "THAT one" -- and then give the young player 400 or 800 or 1,200 at-bats to prove that he's the real deal.
This kind of judgment and decisiveness affords the luxury of time, because once a Dustin Pedroia comes up and hits 191/258/303 as a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/07/09
9 Comments
Matty:
+++ [As Ichiro goes) ...so go the Mariners.
No single player can decide EVERY game, but here's a fun fact.
When Ichiro gets no hits, the team is 1-4. :) +++
LOL on the sample size quip. Which just now reminds me, that you've been alerting us to this for a couple years now ... I'm becoming more and more convinced.
Saturday, Ichiro notices that the M's are down 1-0 ... Gutierrez on first base, TWO out, and a single might accomplish nothing. Ichiro blasts one into the power alley, base of the wall, to score Gutierrez.
Eighth inning, same game, 1-1, Ichiro on first and Griffey doubles... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/07/09
3 Comments
I'll take Felix and Bedard OVER any other 1-2 in the league right now. I'm talking about this season, two guys, who do you want.
I'm not interested in comparing Greinke and Meche's performances, over 10 games, tit-for-tat. I'm interested in the fact that Gil Meche isn't as good as Felix Hernandez.
Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander are tough. Just not as tough as Felix and Bedard. (Jackson's career ERA is 4.69. It's not time to anoint him a top-10 starter.)
Beckett and Lester -- Boston is left arguing that it's a push. Both are well behind Felix and Bedard in FIP. You want to argue... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/07/09
1 Comments
=== RUSS BRANYAN, Sizzler ===
A week or two ago, Branyan struck out a few times chasing good FB's up the ladder. Since then, the league has been trying to get him out on high FB's.
Go to MLB.com and check the GameDay on Sunday. Behold Kevin Slowey's relentless barrage of straight pitches at the top of the strike zone. This is what a lot of guys have been doing.
In fact, Branyan looked so bad on a few of those AB's that I started to worry a little: maybe this was the "fatal flaw" that the GM's knew about. Brad Wilkerson can't hit high pitches either -- he murders down-in but just... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/07/09
3 Comments
RotoChamp Taro sez:
+++ Bedard is good but he aslo really fragile. For me it comes down to the contract terms. His agent wanted 7 years at $14mil per WHEN he was traded to Seattle. The market is DOWN since then. Dunn just signed for 2/$10mil.
Bedard takes 5 years for $65mil or so and its a deal. +++
I respect the position as being logical. But as you might guess, I'm going to ping-pong this one back...
The market was soft THIS winter, but do you expect $13M to be the going rate for the league's best pitcher, for the next five years?
The Yankees didn't worry much about the soft winter market... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/09
10 Comments
The general consensus in Seattle is that you have to be careful re-signing Branyan because he's 33 with "old player's skills." The consensus is wrong.
;- )
Bill James pointed out, in the 1980's, that those with "old player's skills" TENDED TO age a little worse. He specifically applied this to Seattle's own Alvin Davis, who came up with lots of walks and power, but no speed.
Counterintuitively, those with "young players' skills" -- footspeed, and the fast-twitch reflexes to make contact on tons of pitches and so finish AB's on early counts -- age better. Dr. D has preached before that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/09
4 Comments
=== DRIVES ME CRAZY Dept. ===
Amazing that the defense over-shifts Branyan *even when Ichiro is on first.* This means that the defense is willing to concede not only a free single -- it is willing to concede even a free double. A bunt hit, with Ichiro on first, changes the situation from 1B, 0 out, to 1B + 2B, 0 out. That's the same as if Branyan led off with a double, and Ichiro walked behind him.
In the shift, the third baseman is playing SS, and cannot possibly turn a bunt into an out. Even if Mr. Friedrichsen from Up is running.
All in the world Branyan has to do, is square away and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/09
7 Comments
... 2 slot, both in the batting order, and in the Mariners' 2010 offensive priorities. We hope.
It's been really neat to see Don Wakamatsu use his beefy 1B in the #2 hole -- when his beefy 1B is his only hitter (other than Ichiro). The common idea is to put your Jack Clark in the #4 hole, so that two or three guys can be on for his homers.
But there are going to be 1.7 men on per homer, more or less, whatever you do -- so why not put the Big Gun on Indiana Avenue, where all the RBI situations pop up?
Kudos to Tom Tango's site for pointing out that the #2 hole is the one in which you get... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/09
2 Comments
The Big Unit wrapped up #300 and they had Tim Kjurkian on to trowel on the praise. He said two things that caught our ears:
1. That the Unit is one of the 15 or 20 best pitchers ever, and the third best lefty ever, behind Grove and (um) Warren Spahn.
2. That the next pitcher to win 300 games is absolutely not active in the major leagues right now.
.
=== DAMNING WITH FAINT PRAISE Dept. ===
Almost as good as Warren Spahn! Wow, Bobby Sue, imagine that.
First of all, Spahn pitched 21 seasons times a 118 ERA+. Johnson has pitched (so far) 22 seasons times a 138 ERA+. I can see where you'd... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/09
3 Comments
LisaMariner gave us an exec-class memo on Erik Bedard's radio interview Thursday. http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=2628
Most interestingly, Bedard publicly "announced" that he would like to be a Mariner long-term. The mainframe crunch on this:
.............
1. I remember Geoff Baker, who is an absolutely outstanding baseball *analyst* as well as writer, putting forth a hum-dilly of an argument that Bedard wasn't going to even consider the Pacific Northwest. The argument was logical and convincing, and had its arms around both the on-field and off-field issues.... Read More