February 2009
Posted by jemanji on 02/28/09
8 Comments
The San-Man at Mariner Central explains why he's had his eye on Mike Carp since he was a Met:
Carp was high enough in the Mets organization (as judged by the mass punditry) that he was worth a gander...
At the point I start looking, I first look at overall production -- looking at most recent AND at career numbers in the minors. Lacking ANY sense of the physical or athletic gifts in play, I rely almost solely on the stats available, (no choice). So, I don't TRY to infer ATHLETIC development. I let the scouts handle that - and accept pretty much what I read.
Bill James once said that the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/28/09
7 Comments
I know that Wak said “If the season started today … Endy would play left.” ... I also see it as an indication that the club is SERIOUS about defensive effort. A key point here is that everyone, (including Wlad, I’m sure), knows that Endy is an empty spot in the batting order. The *ONLY* reason he’d be queueing up in front of Wlad for PT is because the club is actually serious about upgrading the defense.
Ya Sandy... let's hope that it's aimed at Wlad.
... they are indeed serious about DER, but how serious do you want to get? You want to play a SS/2B at first base? oh, wait... :- )... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/28/09
3 Comments
Uber-analyst San-Man sez:
I don’t think a choice to bypass Wlad is a definitive statement of anything.
The problem with evaluating ANY prospect is that it is a balance between paying attention to production and paying attention to what the coaches and scouts are seeing.
Right as rain ... and IMHO, there are only two orgs in baseball who set this balance where I would. As Bill James acidly put it,
"Major league organizations pay entirely too much attention to what their scouts tell them, and entirely too little attention to how their players HAVE PERFORMED."
Science tells us bumblebees can't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/27/09
1 Comments
Geoffy continues to goggle-eye over Mike Carp:
Mike Carp (shaking Wakamatsu's hand in the photo atop the blog post) went deep for a three-run homer in the eighth, putting Seattle ahead 18-0. That Carp kid looks good. He had a homer, a double and five RBI with a run scored and is now hitting .500 for the spring ... I would not be surprised to see Carp up at some point this summer. The guy can flat-out hit. And with Branyan and Griffey possibly not coming back here in 2010, a spot would open up for a lefty 1B/DH who can rake.
Personally, I'm very interested to hear Geoff Baker's judgment on... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/27/09
3 Comments
Again some sweet stuff from the Bakery,
[Griffey] On teammates getting along: "They're going to have to,'' he said. "We're here for one reason and that's to win ballgames. You're going to have your feuding in there. But that is not going to carry over to the field. That's just the way it is. I mean, you're just not going to like somebody and he's not going to like you. But you're going to go out there and play. And you're going to give the other seven or eight guys on that field a chance to win. And that's just the way it's going to be.''
Sabertistas behind the ropes there. You're not on... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/27/09
3 Comments
Geoff Baker's report on Junior's press conference, as usual, just rippled the mesh from three. The dude has a sweet stroke from the corner of the word processor elbow. Light me up, babe.
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Junior gave Chuck Armstrong a day in the sun, slapping fives with him in Junior-trash style. Leave it to make His Lawyerliness look like some kind of front-office cool breeze. :- ) But that's Griffey, and that's the point. Every once a decade, you get a man who owns any room he walks into...
"I plan on having him take me to dinner at least four or five times a week,'' Griffey said. "Being... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/27/09
1 Comments
As you know, Dr. D spends more time on morality, ethics, and philosophy than the average bear. Where does he come down on The Great Beltre WBC kerfuffle?
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On the one hand, Americans have a tough time relating to how nationalistic Latin countries are, especially about sports. It is berrrrrry, berry important to the fans, that their MLB heroes show them loyalty. You'll see even established ML stars go home and play winter ball, and it's because of a "paises unidos" mentality that sees failure to do so as almost traitorous.
What could we compare it to in America? ....... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/13/09
3 Comments
Ah! Now I get it. Josh Fields was a dumb signing because we didn't WANT him signed. My bad. Usually I'm not quite THAT slow on the uptake ;- ) but I whiffed on that one like ARod on an October slider.
The reasons for this displeasure, as far as I can tell, are two:
1. The punk doesn't deserve anything but to be doused with lighter fluid and handed a couple of sparklers.
2. Now we're going to miss out on a #22 overall which could have been used to select Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Vlad Guerrero or somebody like that.
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I'm not going to be able to help you with #1, but... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/13/09
2 Comments
In 2008, the players drafted in the #20-22 slots overall, were:
[Josh Fields]
Ryan Perry
Reese Havens
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In 2007, those three players were:
Chris Withrow
J.P. Arencibia
Tim Alderson
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In 2006, you had:
Chris Parmalee
Ian Kennedy
Colton Willems
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In 2005, it was:
Mark Pawelek
Cliff Pennington
Aaron Thompson
Certainly, Dr. D knows that the book isn't closed on these players. But did YOU know that, if you drafted players like this with the 2009 #22 pick, that four years later you'd still be cooling your heels, waiting for them? Pennington... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/13/09
As most of youse know, I write on this site, and don't run it. Please hold your applause until the speaker's finished.
Every time I check in, there are 100, 200, whatever, posts caught in the spamfilter -- pretty impressive for a site that was just launched. :- ) The spambots these days conjure images of the Matrix's nanobots drilling through the earth's crust to get at New Jerusalem, or whatever that city was called...
On the first page of 25 posts, all 25 are (almost) always all spam. But I know that somewhere in the next 200 posts are a few posts from amigos who wrote something great... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/10/09
5 Comments
Jeff at Lookout Landing with a witty call for all of us to hyper down a bit.
He apparently shares an office with the kind of amigo who will assume the fetal position when you twang a rubber band at him :- ) ... not a bad metaphor for the Mariner blog-o-sphere (including me) when it hears a rumor of a move it doesn't care for.
LOL.
Will cheerfully admit there are times when Dr. D could give more of a shrug of the shoulders about moves that aren't going to make-or-break The Grand Plan. Aaron Heilman for Ronny Cedeno and Garret Olson is pretty much the opposite of what I'd do -- giving up... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/10/09
1 Comments
Good patter around the 'net about Clement's batspeed, and about his getting jobbed a few times in Cheney last year. Which is true. Clement's eye ratio would have been 1.5, not 1.2, with major league umping.
PCL umps really can be weird, amigos. You remember Eric Gregg in the Braves-Yankees World Series? Overhead camera showing the ball 18-24 inches outside, in the LH batter's box, and Gregg enthusiastically ringing guys out of there on strike three? You'll see about one call like that per half inning, if you go to Cheney. Sometimes two or three Greggs in a half inning. Sometimes none... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/09/09
2 Comments
As y'know, the highest medal awarded by the D-O-V Galactic Senate is... the Point-By-Point Rhetorical Ribbon with Cluster.
Once in a while we grab an article from The Bakery and riff off that. Or an interview of a Mariners suit or player. Today, Prospect Insider offers a meaty composition on Clement and gets the musical fugue:
At the plate, he’s still a solid bet to hit .260 with solid OBP in the .340-.360 range and 20-25 home run power. He doesn’t have big problems with breaking balls, he’s willing to work counts, feels comfortable – and performs – with two strikes. Clement simply needs... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/06/09
Billy Martin did not add +20 wins to every team that he took over, by importing five superstars. He added +20 wins to every team that he took over, by changing its attitude.
And he did that, by installing a fear of failure. Playing badly, under Martin, cost you and cost you dearly. He was willing to pay the price to put his players on eggshells -- that price being that he wasn't their pal.
It has been controversial whether sports psychology matters, or even exists. But for a $100M payroll that loses 102 games, attitude is simply the #1 area of attention.
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Geoff Baker hot... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/06/09
=== Rotation / Closer ===
Morrow and Clement are (most likely) the guys who will have to do a Jim Rice and Fred Lynn, so to speak, if the 2009 M's are to surprise. Now that Putz is gone for a #4 outfielder and change, how about Brandon Morrow disappears into the maw of the hole that we left?
If all else fails, there's always Brandon Morrow. I get the feeling that, with this team unlikely to contend, the M's are willing to give Morrow a look as a starter. But if he doesn't show some quick progress and the bullpen starts blowing late leads, I could envision him winding back up in the bullpen... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/06/09
2 Comments
=== OF ===
The evolution of thought on the OF has been Bizarro In The 'Burbs this winter:
In a radio interview last month, GM Jack Zduriencik sounded like he was going to hand the starting left fielder's job to Endy Chavez. I asked Zduriencik about that a few days later and he assured me that no decisions had been made.
Just last week I saw a debate between SABRMatt and a *very* smart amigo, in which Matty had to try to "prove" (in essence) the point that Bobby Abreu would help a team more in LF than would Endy Chavez.
I'm all for fresh perspective, kids. :- ) But if the defensive fad has... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/05/09
As far as 1B goes, it was a stake through Dr. D's heart to hear Zduriencik say that
"Whoever we sign, he's going to be able to field his position."
Apparently this means the 'net rats / consultants (no offense meant) talked Zduriencik out of Adam Dunn's 40+16 homers and .600 normalized SLG ... because he violates the absolutes on defense.
Only a Sith speaks in absolutes. I will do what I must.
;- )
Anyway. What's Adam Dunn's asking price down to these days? NOBODY is interested in seeing this guy hit like the 1997 Ken Griffey Jr at 1B and DH? Even at 2/$24M?
....................... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/04/09
1 Comments
Jason leaked the rumor that we might be talking about flushing Morrow or Clement for "An AL Central outfielder with solid defensive skills and one strong offensive season under his belt." MC posters hooted, "Yeah, CHOO!" :- )
In 2008, Shin-Soo Choo hit .300/.400/.550 to the tune of a 146 OPS+ ... at the age of 25.
Just for fun, below is pasted my original projection of him, back in about April of the year 2006.
You can google other sources to compare, but here's the exec summary: won't hit enough for LF, can't field enough for CF, minors results don't mean anything, ML fringe.
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=== Dr.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/04/09
We have a post up at SF Sports Insider.
As y'know, the M's have 4-5 early picks this summer. What can they expect? It's an interesting debate.
Cheers,
Jeff
Posted by jemanji on 02/04/09
10 Comments
One of our fave posters is uncharacteristically cranky this winter. :- )
Not that I deny having mastered at least 10 kinds of stupid. ... but .... forgetting that SB's are not equal to HR's, and stuff like that, isn't one of them.
It is ten kinds of stupid to use ROTO draft logic in relation to ANYTHING about real-world baseball.
Anything? You mean like the roto draft logic that says 45 homers are better than 9? That doesn’t apply, because it’s a roto draft logic, and not "real baseball"?
There are any number of principles that apply in greater or lesser degree. Let's keep MC and D-O-V... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/04/09
2 Comments
Quoth a local rotochamp:
Hmmm…trying to find evidence that Young is a good outfielder and not finding it. ALL the defensive metrics hate him (plus/minus, PMR, UZR, and RZR). It limits his upside a bit as hes going to HAVE to mash to be a star.
1. His career range factors are above average at LF and at RF. http://www.baseball-reference.com/y/youngde03.shtml
In other words, although our stathead attempts to count his [outs as a % of chances he had] make him look bad ... his actual outs made look good.
It's quite possible that there's something wrong with the way we counted the number of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/03/09
3 Comments
Ping. If he pulls off Morrow and a salary dump for Young and then signs Bobby Abreu…I think we have a chance to win the West in 09 and we’re set up beautifully for a a healthy future.
Pong. Justin was also psyched about Young-Ichiro-Abreu. For Dr. D this is in the "far too good to be true" category ... if and when the Mariners hinted about Ichiro moving over, then I'd allow myself to go beatific. :- ) ... Taro, IceX, is Ichiro playing CF for Team Japan?
Where would Young-Ichiro-Abreu rank among ML outfields? In terms of cold, hard math, you'd probably have three 6-ish RC/27's -- not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/03/09
5 Comments
==== ForrrrrrNevvvvver You---uuu--nnng Dept. ===
Wow!
I don't ever remember seeing the MC crowd do this, vote 3-vs-20 in the direction opposite of the one D-O-V was going. This is awesome. :- )
On an emotional level, I want to see Felix-Bedard-Morrow. I think Morrow could be Jim Palmer, right now.
Dealing the SP for the OF, for me, is a function of (1) the hitter being much lower-risk and (2) Young being probably a better prospect within his context than Morrow is within his. But yeah, it's practically impossible to get your mitts on a MLB-ready TOR starter of the magnitude of Morrow.
.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 02/02/09
5 Comments
.
Justin:
I do think it’s Delmon Young considering he’s been rumored in other places… and whose two most similar by age comps are Tris Speaker and Carl Yastrzemski.
Which are two references I'm sure are lost on most of you kiddies ... ;- )
Bill James once said of Tris Speaker, "Imagine George Brett playing CF like Cesar Geronimo." Which, come to think of it, are going to be two more references that sail past...
Vlad Guerrero, okay?
:- )
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I’m not big on trading Morrow under any circumstances, and I think we’re much thinner on SP depth than people realize. However, Young is... Read More
Posted by jerodlee on 02/01/09
2 Comments
For the second consecutive time this season, the Huskies bounced back from a disheartening conference loss with a big win on the road; last time, they crushed the Oregon schools after their triple-overtime thriller versus Cal; on Saturday, January 31st, they scored a much more impressive victory by beating the #14 ranked Arizona State Sun Devils, in Tempe, 84-71. After a tough road loss at Arizona two nights before, the significance of this victory cannot be overstated.
Strong first half sets the stage
In recent victories, the Huskies used strong second halves to turn close contests into... Read More